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☆ Dollar rebounds on higher expectations for Fed hike in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar bounced from a one-year low on Monday as resilience in core U.S. retail sales, a rise in short-term inflation expectations and impressive Wall Street bank earnings raised market expectations for an interest rate hike in May. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose 0.15% to 101.82, standing some distance away from Friday's one-year low of 100.78. So I think that will increase (expectations) for the Fed to continue raising interest rates," said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets. Short-term inflation expectations have also increased, with the University of Michigan's preliminary April reading showing that one-year inflation expectations rose to 4.6% from 3.6% in March. Some hawkish Fed speak also aided the higher interest rate expectations, with Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggesting that the Fed could hike another 25 bps next month.

The S&P 500 finished little changed Tuesday as traders digested a slew of earnings reports and their implications for the U.S. economy. Major benchmarks fluctuated as investors assessed the latest batch of key earnings reports. Despite a tough economic environment, Bank of America surpassed first-quarter expectations on the top and bottom lines as rates rose. Despite Tuesday's moves, and expectations for declining profits against a backdrop of persistent inflation and rising interest rates, earnings season has so far proven resilient. Earnings season presses on after the bell with results from United Airlines and streaming giant Netflix .

☆ Gold off one-year highs as investors weigh rate hike prospects
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Gold prices biased for a grind higher - analystsMarkets pricing in Fed 25-bps rate hike in MayU.S. dollar up 0.1%April 17 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched higher on Monday but were off one-year highs reached late last week as mixed economic data prompted investors to reassess the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike trajectory and boosted the dollar. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,004.74 per ounce, as of 0353 GMT. The dollar index was 0.1% higher, making bullion expensive for overseas buyers. Other data showed households expected inflation to rise over the next 12 months. The CME FedWatch tool shows markets are pricing in a 80.9% chance of a 25 basis point hike in May.

☆ Wall St dips to lower close as rate hike bets firm, banks jump
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Today we're taking bit of a breather," said Sal Bruno, chief investment officer at IndexIQ in New York. Citigroup Inc (C.N), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) beat earnings expectations, benefiting from rising interest rates and easing fears of stress in the banking system. The S&P 500 banking sector (.SPXBK) jumped 3.5% and JPMorgan Chase surged 7.6%, its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 9, 2020. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, seven ended the session lower, with real estate (.SPLRCR) falling most. The S&P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 47 new highs and 205 new lows.

☆ Wall St slides as rate hike expectations firm, banks surge
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"As expected, the bigger banks were probably not harmed that much by the regional banking turmoil, and possibly even beneficiaries of it," Mayfield added. "We saw mostly strong and healthy balance sheets, and it's pretty clear (the regional banking) crisis isn't systemic." The S&P 500 banking sector (.SPXBK) jumped 3.4% and JPMorgan Chase surged 7.3%, setting itself up for its biggest one-day percentage gain since Nov. 9, 2020. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, financials (.SPSY) were the sole gainers. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 37 new highs and 182 new lows.

☆ Dollar, yields gain as expectations of Fed rate hike increase
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Retail sales fell 1.0% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for February was revised up to show retail sales falling 0.2% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. The yield on two-year Treasuries, which reflect interest rate expectations, rose 12 basis points to 4.097%, while on benchmark 10-year notes they rose 6.4 basis points to 3.515%. "The first quarter is going to be better than lowered expectations, which is good, but the guidance at best will be uncertain," Conger said. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters that one more quarter percentage point interest rate hike could allow the Fed to end its tightening cycle.

JPMorgan's shares rallied 7.3%, set for its steepest one-day gain in over two years, while Citigroup rose 3.8%. The S&P 500 Banks index (.SPXBK) rose 3.3% to a one-month high, among the few sectors to outperform. Traders largely stuck to bets that the Fed will raise rates by another 25 basis points in May. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sectors were in the red, with real estate (.SPLRCR) and utilities (.SPLRCU) leading declines. Bank stocks lag S&P 500 this yearReporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

BlackRock Inc's (BLK.N) quarterly profit also beat analysts' estimates as investors continued to pour money in the world's largest asset manager's various funds. The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) has lagged the broader S&P 500 (.SPX) this year with a 13% decline, while the KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) has already lost 20% in its worst performance since 2009. Bank stocks lag S&P 500 this yearThe S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial (.DJI) closed at almost two-month highs on Thursday as economic data showed cooling inflation and a loosening labor market, fueling optimism that the Fed could be nearing the end of its aggressive interest rate-hike cycle. Among other big-ticket earnings, healthcare conglomerate UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH.N) beat estimates for quarterly profit and raised its annual forecast, pushing its shares up 0.7%. ET, Dow e-minis were down 9 points, or 0.03%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 4 points, or 0.10%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 68.75 points, or 0.52%.

The retail sales data provided at least a hint that a pandemic-era spending boom may be nearing an end, though some economists argued that the historically low unemployment rate and rising wages make a sharp drop in consumption unlikely. In separate comments, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he'd seen little evidence yet that the economy was under stress, little progress on inflation, and no reason to call off further rate increases. The current inflation rate is more than twice that target, and progress on getting it to move in that direction has been slow. The data showed households expected inflation to accelerate significantly in the year ahead, reversing months of progress towards them viewing inflation as a receding phenomenon. There won't be much more topline economic data before the Fed's May 2-3 meeting.

That's a good reason to pause after one more rate increase, he said, to study how the economy and inflation evolve, and try to limit the damage to growth and jobs. 'HAD TO DOWNSHIFT'The Atlanta Fed chief spoke in detail about how the recent turmoil in banking markets buffeted his monetary policy views. At first, high inflation made him open to a half-percentage-point increase at the March 21-22 Fed meeting. Indeed, Bostic sketched out why he still believes the inflation battle can be won without a recession or even much of a rise in the unemployment rate. People and businesses "are sitting in a financial condition that is abnormal, and abnormal in a way that would drive excess consumption," Bostic said.

☆ Fed's Goolsbee says mild U.S. recession feasible
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

April 14 (Reuters) - A U.S. recession is certainly feasible as the Federal Reserve's steep rate-hikes over the past year filters fully through the economy, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Friday, as he again urged the central bank to be prudent on policy. "There is no way you can look at current conditions around the world and in the US and not think that some mild recession is definitely on the table as a possibility," Goolsbee said in an interview with CNBC. He was responding to a question about a forecast from Fed staff that banking sector stress would tip the economy into recession later this year. "The data show that and we've raised rates almost 500 basis points in a year," he added. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters in an interview, also on Friday, the Fed could "hit the mark and hold" with one more rate hike.

The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) has lagged the broader S&P 500 (.SPX) this year with a 13% decline, while the KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) has already lost 20% in its worst performance since 2009. "The retail sales are kind of a disappointment," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. Traders stuck to bets the U.S. central bank will raise its benchmark rate in May by another 25 basis points after the retail sales data. Among other big-ticket earnings, healthcare conglomerate UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH.N) beat estimates for quarterly profit and raised its annual forecast, pushing its shares up 0.4%. BlackRock Inc's (BLK.N) quarterly profit also beat analysts' estimates as investors continued to pour money in the world's largest asset manager's various funds.

"It was a quirky situation," St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said in comments to a St. Louis community group. 'FELT VERY STABLE'The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday, its ninth straight increase. This wasn't a straightforward decision," Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said in an interview with National Public Radio, a U.S. media outlet. But "that's a different issue than the macro policy issue that we were dealing with in terms of interest rates," Bostic said. So the conditions were right to do monetary policy the way we want to do monetary policy."

Like Willis, private economists and analysts at payroll firms and staffing companies also see a labor market that is stressed but adjusting. A recent Goldman Sachs study concluded wage growth should continue slowing even with the current low unemployment rate of 3.4%. But even that came with slowing wage growth, and the gain was amplified by seasonal adjustments used to factor out expected swings in hiring during holidays and summer. Nela Richardson, chief economist at payroll processor ADP, said even as economy-wide hiring remains strong, the tech layoffs may be helping mute overall wage growth. "If that is a trend...we would expect there would be less drive for wage growth," she said.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The Nasdaq popped last week. But tech might be in trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Nasdaq outpaced other indexes last week. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. That makes two straight months that the Nasdaq has outpaced the other indexes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: The Nasdaq soared last week. But tech might be in trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Nasdaq Composite outpaced other indexes last week. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. That makes two straight months that the Nasdaq has outpaced the other indexes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ More rate hikes are needed, says Fed’s Mary Daly
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Federal Reserve policymakers will need to raise interest rates higher and keep them there longer to tackle the higher prices caused by sticky inflation, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Saturday. Daly does not currently vote on Fed policy decisions but is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and participates in policy meetings. Her speech followed a week of similar warnings from the Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said Wednesday that he believes the Fed needs to raise its policy rate by half a percentage point at the next meeting. On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that painful interest rates could go higher than expected, citing a slew of recent stronger-than-expected economic data.

The greenback briefly cut its losses after data showed the U.S. services sector grew at a steady pace in February, with new orders and employment rising to more than one-year highs. "This suggests traders think yields have been pushed too far, too fast, and could augur a peak in implied terminal rates," he added. "Next week's job opening and non-farm payrolls reports could generate a lift in yields and the dollar. The dollar eased 0.4% to 136.26 yen , after climbing to 137.10 on Thursday, the highest since Dec. 20. For the week, the dollar is down 0.4% versus the yen, but any gain would preserve its win streak since mid-January.

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 3, 2023. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell on Friday after touching a four-month high in the previous session but stayed above the 4% level. Nine of the 11 major S&P sectors were higher, with communication services (.SPLRCL) and technology (.SPLRCT) indexes leading gains. Apple Inc rose 1.9% after Morgan Stanley said the stock could rally more than 20% this year on potential hardware subscription. Dell Technologies Inc (DELL.N) slipped 0.9% after it forecast current-quarter revenue and profit below Wall Street estimates, hit by an ongoing demand slump in its PC business.

☆ Futures rise as yields retreat from highs
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell on Friday after touching a four-month high in the previous session but stayed above the 4% level. Central bank officials including Bostic and Fed Dallas President Lorie Logan are scheduled to speak later in the day. ET, Dow e-minis were up 82 points, or 0.25%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 13 points, or 0.33%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 35 points, or 0.29%. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE.N) rose 2.3% after the laptop maker gave an upbeat full-year earnings forecast. Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

REUTERS/StaffLONDON, March 3 (Reuters) - European stocks rose in early trading on Friday, as investor risk appetite was boosted by signs of an economic recovery in China, even after expectations for European Central Bank rate hikes kept government bond yields at their highest in years. Investors are trying to gauge the path for Federal Reserve rate hikes, after strong U.S. data in recent weeks suggested rates may need to be higher for longer. But stock markets rose on Wall Street overnight, in a move analysts attributed to Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic saying on Thursday that the Fed should stick to "steady" quarter-point rate hikes. The recovery in euro zone business activity gathered pace last month, PMI survey data showed. Euro zone government bond yields were still near their highest in years after euro zone inflation data on Thursday drove market expectations for the ECB's terminal rate to around 4%.

☆ Asian stocks gain as prospects of China recovery, and Fed caution
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Julie Zhu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, March 3 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Friday on prospects for a steady economic recovery in China, and after Wall Street reversed losses overnight following remarks by the Atlanta Federal Reserve chief that signalled a measured approach raising U.S. interest rates. Global markets have been buffeted by a raft of strong U.S. data over recent weeks, including U.S. jobless claims overnight, that suggested the Fed would need to keep rates higher for longer. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was up 0.7%, on track for its first weekly rise in five. U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, reversing earlier losses, as Treasury yields pulled back from earlier highs, following the rates comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic. The two-year yield , which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, rose to 4.8879%compared with a U.S. close of 4.904%.

☆ Morning Bid: Fed's 'slow and steady' lifts market mood
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Futures indicate that the buoyant mood is set to continue in Europe, with the continent-wide STOXX 600 looking to end yet another week with gains. Markets took their cues from comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. "Slow and steady is going to be the appropriate course of action," he said, arguing for quarter point hikes. Also helping lift sentiment was services sector data from China, reviving the optimism that a robust recovery was well underway. The Caixin/S&P Global services purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose at the fastest pace in six months to 55.0 in February from 52.9 in January.

☆ Oil prices head for weekly gain on China growth hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Sudarshan Varadhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Brent crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.5%, to $84.36 a barrel at 0147 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 41 cents, or 0.5%, at $77.75 a barrel%. Manufacturing activity in China grew last month at the fastest pace in more than a decade, reinforcing expectations of a fuel decmand recovery. Comments by Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic that the Fed should stick with "steady" quarter-point rate eased concerns in the U.S., and helped support oil prices on Thursday even after strong unemployment data. A 10th consecutive week of crude stock builds (USOILC=ECI) in the United States also weighed on the market this week.

☆ Asian stocks up on hopes Fed will adopt slow approach to more hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Julie Zhu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

HONG KONG, March 3 (Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Friday after Wall Street reversed losses on signals of a measured policy tightening approach from the U.S. Federal Reserve as well as on prospects of a solid economic recovery in China. Australian shares (.AXJO) were up 0.36%, helped by gains in miners and financials, while Japan's Nikkei stock index (.N225) rose 1.42%. U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, reversing earlier losses, as Treasury yields pulled back from earlier highs, following the rates comments from Atlanta Fed President Bostic. read moreThe yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes touched 4.0556% compared with its U.S. close of 4.073% on Thursday. The two-year yield , which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, rose to 4.8913%compared with a U.S. close of 4.904%.

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