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☆ Dollar wobbles near eight-month low ahead of c.bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The dollar held close to an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy U.S. corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week. Trading was thin, with Australia out for a holiday and some parts of Asia still away for the Lunar New Year. "There are now signs the U.S. economy may be slowing in a more meaningful manner," said economists at Wells Fargo. Ahead of that, the Commerce Department is due to release advance estimates of U.S. fourth-quarter gross domestic product later on Thursday. Meanwhile, markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), which will also meet next week, to deliver 50 bps rate hikes.

☆ Dollar near eight-month low ahead of c.bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The dollar lolled near an eight-month low against its peers on Thursday, as a gloomy U.S. corporate earnings season stoked recession fears and as traders stayed on guard ahead of a slew of central bank meetings next week. The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, last stood at 101.53, languishing near last week's eight-month trough of 101.51. "There are now signs the U.S. economy may be slowing in a more meaningful manner," said economists at Wells Fargo. "With the Fed no longer leading the charge on interest rate hikes and U.S. economic trends set to worsen, we now believe the U.S. dollar has entered a period of cyclical depreciation against most foreign currencies." Markets expect policymakers at the Bank of England and European Central Bank (ECB), who will also meet next week, to deliver 50 bp rate hikes.

The euro was down 0.12% against the dollar at $1.088, just off the $1.093 level reached on Friday, which was the highest since early May. Meanwhile, the dollar was up 0.1% against the yen , at 130.28 yen per dollar, having hit an 8-month low of 127.22 on Jan. 16. Those expectations have caused the dollar index , which surged on the back of Fed rate hikes last year, to fall more than 11% from September's 20-year high of 114.78. Expectations of further rate increases by the European Central Bank have also aided sentiment and supported the euro. The U.S. dollar was little changed against its Canadian counterpart ahead of the Bank of Canada's latest rates decision on Wednesday, buying C$1.337.

☆ Aussie jumps, kiwi slumps after inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar jumped to a more than five-month high on Wednesday after inflation data came in hotter than expected, while the kiwi slipped after New Zealand's fourth-quarter inflation rose less than what its central bank had forecast. The euro held near a nine-month peak against the dollar, as traders weighed a rosier growth outlook for the euro zone sagainst growing signs of a looming U.S. recession. Meanwhile, the kiwi slid nearly 0.6% to $0.6469, after New Zealand's annual inflation of 7.2% in the fourth quarter came in below its central bank's 7.5% forecast. Data on Tuesday showed that euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, indicating the downturn in the bloc may not be as deep as feared. Policymakers are committed to taming inflation, but are split on the size of moves beyond February's likely half-a-percentage point increase.

☆ Dollar rises on safe haven bids; yen regains footing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FILE PHOTO: A U.S. hundred dollar bill and Japanese 10,000 yen notes are seen in this photo illustration in Tokyo, February 28, 2013. The fresh wave of risk aversion - compounded by news of job cuts by tech giants Microsoft and Amazon - also kept the dollar in bid. The euro was last 0.39% lower at 138.58 yen, while sterling fell 0.23% to 158.27 yen, as markets continued to test the resolve of the BOJ’s ultra-dovish stance. “While there’s still high expectations for a policy shift ... I think that will keep the yen pretty elevated in the near term.”Elsewhere, the kiwi fell 0.31% to $0.6425.

☆ Analysis: Japan's yen feels the heat from hard-line BOJ policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Speculators have looked instead to the yen, an easier target where their bets on BOJ policy have induced massive swings and historic levels of volatility. BIGGER YEN BETSAnalysts expect bets on the BOJ soon abandoning its yield curve control policy will get bigger and louder, for a number of reasons. James Athey, an investment director at fund manager abrdn, has held a long position on the yen for a while. We had a significant overweight on the Japanese yen, (and) in the aftermath, we took profit on some of our yen position," Athey said. "The debate around the future of BOJ policy is far from settled," said Howard Smith, partner and portfolio manager at Indus Japan Strategies.

☆ Japan yields tumble to well below policy cap as BOJ stands pat
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A Japan Yen note is seen in this illustration photo taken June 1, 2017. The yield was at 0.51% prior to the Bank of Japan decision. "If they had expanded the band again or terminated YCC, yields would rise, which would be a de facto rate hike for a second consecutive meeting," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. The BOJ also made use of a newly announced policy tool immediately, offering five-year loans to financial institutions to enhance liquidity, and showing its resolve to keep yields low. At the post-meeting press conference, Kuroda defended the change, reiterating that widening the yield band has made YCC "fully sustainable".

☆ Japan yields tumble below policy cap after BOJ keeps status quo
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The 10-year yield was last down 10.5 basis points at 0.395%, which would mark the biggest one-day decline in seven years. It was at 0.51% prior to the BOJ decision. Ten-year JGB futures jumped when they resumed trading following the midday break, trading up as much as 1.81 points to 146.65, the highest since Dec. 20. "If they had expanded the band again or terminated YCC, yields would rise, which would be a de facto rate hike," said Naomi Muguruma, senior market economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. The 10-year yield has repeatedly breached the BOJ's ceiling, only to close back at the 0.5% limit on each day.

☆ Bank of Japan keeps yield control policy unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

MARKET REACTION:The Japanese stock market cheered the BOJ's decision with the Nikkei share average (.N225) jumping more than 2% after the midday break. Therefore, among equities, we think Japanese financials sector will have a rerating of valuations over the next 3-6 months." That could escalate when the new governor of the bank will be announced and towards the policy meeting in March." MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE"The can has been kicked down the road and the attention will shift to the next meeting. CHARU CHANANA, MARKET STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"I think the speculations will still continue.

☆ Japan yields stay above policy cap as BOJ sticks to status quo
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond yields remained above the central bank's 0.5% policy ceiling on Wednesday, after the Bank of Japan unanimously decided to keep its yield curve controls in place. The benchmark yield was up 1 basis point at 0.51% as of 0250 GMT. In a relatively volatile session for cash bonds, the yield had started out flat and then eased as much as 1.5 basis points at one point to 0.485%. The 10-year yield has repeatedly breached the BOJ's ceiling, only to close back at the 0.5% limit on each day. Ten-year JGB futures were in the midday break at the time of the policy decision.

☆ Yen tests seven-month high ahead of BOJ policy decision; dollar wobbles
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 16 (Reuters) - The Japanese yen held near an over seven-month peak on Monday, as traders, in the lead up to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision this week, ramped up bets that the central bank could make further tweaks to its yield control policy. The yen was last 0.1% lower at 128.01 per dollar, having surged to 127.46 per dollar on Friday, its highest since May last year. Markets have been pressing for the BOJ to shift away from its ultra-easy monetary policy, which on Friday caused the yield on Japan's benchmark 10-year government bonds to breach the central bank's new ceiling. With the BOJ due to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, expectations are for further tweaks to its yield control policy or a full abandonment of it. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.13% to 102.13, languishing near Friday's seven-month low of 101.97.

☆ Yen jumps on hopes of BOJ policy shift; dollar slides to seven-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Similarly, the euro hit a fresh nine-month top of $1.0874, and was last 0.23% higher at $1.08565. "The confirmation of a deceleration in price pressures is building up hopes that CPI could fall further in coming months," said analysts at OCBC. The yen jumped roughly 0.5% to a high of 127.215 per dollar, and last bought 127.67 per dollar. Elsewhere, the British pound was last 0.23% higher at $1.2262, after earlier hitting a one-month peak of $1.2288. The kiwi rose 0.34% to $0.64065, having also touched a one-month top of $0.64255 earlier in the session.

LONDON, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The yen got a boost on Thursday on expectations the Bank of Japan will review the side effects of its monetary easing, while the dollar held near a seven-month low against the euro ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day. "You could start to see the normalisation of monetary policy which would be a huge step for Japan (and) a very positive tailwind for the yen," Turner added. The U.S. dollar index was last down 0.06% to 103.04, not far off its seven-month low of 102.93 hit earlier in the week. "Our core views for Fed policy versus ECB policy would be for a stronger euro-dollar through the year." Data released on Thursday showed Australia's trade surplus unexpectedly widened in November and came in well above forecasts.

☆ Yen jumps, dollar in retreat ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen last bought 131.50 per dollar. "The report is likely to add to the (yen) optimism," said Saktiandi Supaat, regional head of FX research and strategy at Maybank. Elsewhere, the dollar was adrift ahead of the closely watched U.S. inflation data, which could provide more clarity on how much inflation in the world's largest economy has moderated and on the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.07% to 103.05, not far off its seven-month low of 102.93 hit earlier in the week. Data released on Thursday showed that Australia's trade surplus unexpectedly widened in November and came in well above forecasts.

☆ Yen jumps; dollar tentative ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen last bought 131.92 per dollar. "The report is likely to add on to the (yen) optimism," said Saktiandi Supaat, regional head of FX research and strategy at Maybank. Elsewhere, the dollar stood cautiously steady ahead of the closely watched U.S. inflation data out later on Thursday, which will provide more clarity on how much inflation in the world's largest economy has tamed and on the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path. Australian inflation data released on Wednesday showed that annual inflation re-accelerated to 7.3% in November, after a surprise dip to 6.9% in October, underscoring the challenge facing the Reserve Bank of Australia as it tries to cool the economy. The Chinese offshore yuan rose to a five-month top of 6.7545 per dollar on Thursday.

Shifts in tones at big banks suggest they are warming up to Chinese equities, especially as the strong returns so far and the fear of missing out on more gains start to apply pressure. "This is still a long path and we remain very bullish on Chinese equities ...and also the currency," he said. "When the market goes up, naturally that will attract international investors to look at China again," said Nicholas Yeo, head of China equities at abrdn. Foreign investors bought a net 41 billion yuan ($6.06 billion) of China stocks via the China-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme so far this year, compared with 90 billion yuan of China stocks bought in all of 2022. They bought a net 35 billion yuan of China stocks in December.

The euro edged up 0.01% against the greenback to $1.0733 at 10:30 a.m. EST (1530 GMT), just below its seven-month high of $1.07605 hit Monday. Investors now expect rates to peak just under 5% by June, before starting to come down later in the year. The pause in the dollar's decline comes as traders ready themselves for U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Thursday. The China-sensitive Australian dollar spiked at a more than four-month peak of $0.6950 in the previous session. The offshore yuan last traded at 6.7878 per dollar, after hitting its strongest in five months of 6.7590 earlier in the session.

☆ Dollar stabilises near seven-month lows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro was at $1.0736, little changed on the day, trading just below its seven-month high of 1.07605 hit Monday. The China-sensitive Australian dollar spiked at a more than four-month peak of $0.6950 in the previous session. The offshore yuan last traded at 6.7889 per dollar, after hitting its strongest in five months of 6.7590 earlier in the session. The dollar also steadied against the yen trading up 0.2% at 132.2 yen. The Japanese currency has been broadly strengthening after the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) surprise tweak to its yield curve policy late last year.

The euro was at $1.0731, little changed on the day, trading just below its seven-month high of 1.07605 hit Monday. The China-sensitive Australian dollar spiked at a more than four-month peak of $0.6950 in the previous session. The offshore yuan last traded at 6.7878 per dollar, after hitting its strongest in five months of 6.7590 earlier in the session. The dollar also steadied against the Japanese yen at 131.7 yen. The currency has been broadly strengthening firm after the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) surprise tweak to its yield curve policy late last year.

☆ Dollar sluggish as Fed rate hike fears ebb; China reopening boosts optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro was last 0.07% higher at $1.0739, holding near the previous session's seven-month peak of $1.07605 that came on the back of the dollar's decline. Sterling slid 0.08% to $1.21705, after similarly hitting a three-week top of $1.2209 on Monday and ending the session 0.73% higher. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.03% to 103.14, after tumbling 0.7% and touching a seven-month low of 102.93 in the previous session. The offshore yuan last bought 6.7755 per dollar, after hitting a near five-month top of 6.7590 earlier in the session. Brazil's real snapped its three-day winning run in the previous session and last stood at 5.2546 per dollar after supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro stormed the capital.

☆ Dollar languishes as Fed rate hike fears recede; China reopening boosts optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar's decline pushed the euro to a seven-month peak of $1.07605 in the previous session. Sterling slipped 0.03% to $1.2177, after similarly hitting a three-week top of $1.2209 on Monday and ending the session 0.73% higher. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index edged 0.04% higher to 103.21, after tumbling 0.7% and touching a seven-month low of 102.93 in the previous session. The offshore yuan last bought 6.7757 per dollar, and was edging towards the previous session's near five-month top of 6.7665 per dollar. "Hedge funds managers have turned slightly bearish USD following the full reopening in China," said Tareck Horchani, head of head of prime brokerage dealing at Maybank Securities.

SINGAPORE, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Crypto exchange Huobi plans to lay off about 20% of its staff, the company told Reuters on Friday. With the current state of the bear market, a very lean team will be maintained going forward," Huobi said in a statement, responding to queries from Reuters. Sun, a Chinese cryptocurrency entrepreneur who is also a member of Huobi's global advisory board, said in an internal memo to Huobi staff that the company has been like "a fire in the (crypto) winter" despite the deteriorating macro environment. Huobi was ranked the eighth largest crypto exchange in terms of volume as of last November, according to analytics website CoinGecko. It was not immediately clear how many staff Huobi currently has.

☆ Dollar stays bullish on resilient U.S. jobs market
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A separate report also revealed that private employment increased by 235,000 jobs last month, far exceeding expectations for a 150,000 increase. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index jumped 0.9% to a nearly one-month peak of 105.27 overnight. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar rose 0.6% to hit a one-week top of 134.045 yen overnight, and last bought 133.44 yen. December's flash inflation figures for the euro zone will also be out on Friday, where expectations are for an annual inflation rate of 9.7%. Data from Germany, France and Spain have already showed a slowdown in inflation last month, suggesting that euro zone inflation could come in below expectations.

Property investment in November fell the fastest since the statistics bureau began compiling data in 2000, down 19.9% on year. "Although property sales and starts will likely be slightly weaker than in 2022, property will be much less of a drag on the economy than in 2022." Reuters GraphicsHOUSING DEMANDShares in embattled Chinese property developers have gained 86% since the trough in October, buoyed by a string of property easing measures and the COVID policy u-turn. "We may be close to see some bottoming out in housing demand …but I don't think we're quite there yet," he said. The latest China Beige Book private economic survey was more blunt: "But forget a return to days of old: it will take considerable policy support in 2023 just to pull property out of the gutter."

☆ Hawkish Fed rhetoric fails to lift dollar; Aussie jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Yet, that failed to give a boost to the U.S. currency, which slid 1.4% against the Canadian dollar overnight. Sterling was last steady at $1.2062, after rising 0.76% against the dollar in the previous session, while the euro edged 0.19% higher to $1.0624, following a more than 0.5% overnight gain. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.14% to 104.06, after slipping 0.5% on Wednesday. The Aussie was last steady at $0.6835, while the kiwi rose 0.11% to $0.6298, after gaining 0.7% in the previous session. "The Aussie dollar has obviously benefitted from the coal story," said NAB's Attrill, adding that most other commodity currencies were supported.

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