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☆ It’s jobs week. Here’s what to watch for
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Welcome to jobs week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that a weakening labor market would be a reason to reduce interest rates. It’s hard to imagine that this jobs report will substantially move the needle on Fed policy, said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone. The Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence survey found that “Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was more positive in March” than in previous months. The week ahead: While the main event this week is Friday’s jobs report, there’s plenty of other jobs data this week for traders to grab on to.

Persons: Jerome Powell, I’ll, nonfarm, ”, Dave Sekera, “, ‘, we’re, Goldman Sachs, Michael Brown, Powell, Brown, It’s, Donald Trump, Matt Egan, Trump, That’s, Natasha Chen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Goldman, Labor, Stanford, Social, Trump Media & Technology Group, Trump Media Locations: New York, ”, California

☆ Steve Eisman says the Fed shouldn't cut rates, risks creating a stock market bubble if it does
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

If the Federal Reserve follows through on plans to lower interest rates it could lead to a stock market bubble, in the view of Neuberger Berman portfolio manager Steve Eisman. The central bank last month penciled in three potential quarter percentage point rate cuts by the end of 2023, along with multiple other cuts coming in future years. I personally think there should be no Fed cuts this year," he said during an interview on CNBC's " Squawk Box ." My actual fear is that if the Fed were actually to cut rates, the market becomes bubblicious and then we have a real problem. Markets in fact have grown nervous this week as hopes have waned for rate cuts.

Persons: Neuberger Berman, Steve Eisman, Jerome Powell, Eisman, Powell Organizations: Federal, Institute for Supply Management, Stanford Business, Government, Society, Labor Department, Fed

☆ Gold hovers below record peak as U.S. dollar, yields firm after upbeat data
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices on Tuesday hovered below record highs hit in the previous session, as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields held firm after strong U.S. data flagged doubts on whether the Federal Reserve would deliver three interest rate cuts this year. Spot gold was unchanged at $2,250.79 per ounce, as of 0415 GMT, holding below an all-time high of $2,265.49 hit on Monday. "Gold notched up a new record price, though with that high watermark also came some overbought conditions, which has resulted in a mild pullback. Traders pared bets of a June interest rate cut to 63% after the data, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Gold tends to gain when interest rates are cut as it reduces the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Persons: Tim Waterer, Jerome Powell, Waterer Organizations: U.S ., Treasury, Federal Reserve, KCM Trade, U.S Locations: .

☆ Baltimore’s economy has been humming. Then a bridge collapsed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-02 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Baltimore’s regional economy has a lot going for it such as low unemployment and low inflation. That’s well below the national rate of 3.9% in February and ranks 43rd out of 389 regions across the country with more than one million residents. Low inflationThe US economy is still dealing with high inflation, but that’s not much of a problem for the Baltimore metro. Inflation in Baltimore slowed dramatically last year from April to June, falling to a 2.8% annual rise from April’s 5.3%. Like across the country, rising energy prices have recently pushed up overall inflation in the Baltimore metro.

Persons: Francis Scott Key, Prince, it’ll, Matt Rourke, Matt Jaffe, “, ” Jaffe, that’s, That’s, ” Christina DePasquale, Johns, Freddie Mac Organizations: Washington CNN, CNN, Towson, Labor Department, Washington D.C, U.S, Baltimore, Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Fed Locations: Baltimore, Port, Baltimore County, Columbia, Boston, Orlando, Atlanta, Washington, Dundalk, Md

☆ Here are the 3 key things we're most focused on in the stock market this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-30 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The annual reading is above the 2% target set by the central bank but is a slight deceleration from the 2.9% annual rate in December and January. Looking ahead to next week, it's all about the macroeconomic updates as the first quarter earnings season is mostly over. ET: ISM Manufacturing PMI After the bell: PVH Corp. (PVH), Canoo (GOEV) Tuesday, April 2 10:00 a.m. ET: ISM Services PMI Before the bell: Acuity Brands (AYI) After the bell: BlackBerry (BB), Levi Strauss (LEVI) Thursday, April 4 8:30 a.m. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.

Persons: Dow, payrolls, Paychex, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, Buster's, Levi Strauss, LEVI, Lamb Weston, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Eric Thayer Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Cal, Maine Foods, Conagra, PVH Corp, PMI, Maine, Brands, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Workers, Grand Central Market, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S, Cal, Los Angeles , California

☆ Jim Cramer's week ahead: Nonfarm payroll data and Disney's proxy fight comes to a head
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-28 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Thursday guided investors through next week's Wall Street action, saying to pay attention to new nonfarm payroll data and Walt Disney's annual shareholder meeting, where its long and arduous proxy fight will come to a head. "Keep an eye on the employment report, because everything else that's coming next week pales in comparison — even the no-holds-barred Disney proxy fight." On Monday, Cramer expects decent earnings from PVH , an apparel maker known for brands including Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger. Walt Disney 's annual shareholder meeting will take place on Wednesday, bringing an end to the company's monthslong bitter proxy fight with activist investor Nelson Peltz. On Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the nonfarm payroll report, and Cramer said he's expecting strong figures.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, we'll, Cramer, Calvin Klein, Tommy Hilfiger, he's, Walt Disney, Nelson Peltz, Levi Strauss, Conagra, Slim Jims, Orville Redenbacher's, Boyardee, haven't Organizations: Walt, Disney, Enterprise Products Partners, U.S . Department of Labor Locations: Paychex

☆ U.S. could be facing stagflation as jobs market cracks, inflation remains sticky, warns BofA's Hartnett
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stubbornly high inflation and a wobbly jobs market are combining to pose an ominous threat to the U.S. economy, Bank of America chief market strategist Michael Hartnett warned. The result is a narrative of "macro shifting from Q4/Q1 'Goldilocks' to Q1/Q2 'Stagflation,'" Hartnett said in his weekly "Flow Show" note to clients dated Thursday. As Hartnett indicated, the U.S. closed 2023 with the labor market looking strong and GDP posting a solid 3.2% gain. On the jobs market, while nonfarm payrolls have risen strongly , household employment actually is down by about 900,000 since November and full-time jobs have declined by nearly 1.8 million. The Fed is "implicitly ... tolerating higher inflation" as way to inflate the debt away, a condition that means "weaker policy credibility = weaker currency … why crypto & gold [are] at all-time highs."

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Stagflation, nonfarm, specter, That's Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, New, Fed, U.S ., Atlanta Fed, Nasdaq Locations: U.S

☆ The Big Stay is great for companies and the economy, but workers might just be biding their time
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-14 | by ( Allie Kelly | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewProductivity for many companies is soaring — all thanks to the "Big Stay." AdvertisementThere are a couple of reasons workers have shifted to the Big Stay, Glassdoor Chief Economist Aaron Terrazas told Business Insider. The US economy added 275,000 jobs last month, but the job market recovery from the pandemic is slowing. The Big Stay has benefits, but they may be short-livedTerrazas said lower quit rates are giving way to high productivity across companies. At the same time, job openings have tumbled since post-pandemic highs, forcing a lot of workers to stay in their roles.

Persons: —, Aaron Terrazas, Terrazas, It's Organizations: Service, Companies, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Employees, The Conference Board, Labor Statistics, Federal

☆ The stock market rally has broadened out from the Magnificent Seven. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Over the past month, a notable shift in performance has occurred among the 11 sectors of the S & P 500 . Understanding the S & P 500 sectors The 11 sectors of the S & P 500 represent the various industries powering the U.S. economy. For example, last year, the market-cap-weighted S & P 500 gained 24.2% while the equal-weighted index advanced only 11.6% in 2023. .SPXEW .SPX 1M mountain The equal-weighted S & P 500 over the past month compared with the S & P 500. Encouragingly, overall earnings estimates for the S & P 500 also have gone up recently.

Persons: —, It's, Wells, Linde, Russell, Labor Department —, Genuity, Canaccord, Encouragingly, Eaton, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Victor J Organizations: Big Tech, Financial, Coterra Energy, DuPont, Tech, Communication Services, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Club, Tesla, Linde, Wolfe Research, Labor Department, Fed, RBC Capital Markets, RBC, Bank of America, Eaton, CNBC, Visitors, New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Tuesday's, U.S

☆ 10-year Treasury yield dips as investors consider state of the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-11 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over one basis points to 4.0711%. The 2-year Treasury yield was little changed and was last up by less than one basis point to 4.4879%. U.S. Treasury yields were mixed on Monday as investors weighed the state of the economy and looked ahead to key data slated for the week. Investors considered the state of the economy following Friday's release of jobs data for February. Investors widely took the data as a sign that interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are on the table for this year.

Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Investors, Federal, CPI, PPI Locations: U.S

☆ These 28 regional and community banks exceed regulators' threshold for high commercial real estate concentration risk: here's what's really at stake.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

But where banks' exposure to commercial real estate is concerned, locating that fire may be difficult. Rising interest rates quickly increased the cost of borrowing for investors in commercial real estate, including offices and multifamily homes. It doesn't reveal details such as borrowers' track records, said Mark Hillis, a former chief risk officer for commercial real estate at JPMorgan. There's also varying concentration risk: the largest banks with commercial real estate exposure are more diversified, meaning that any losses won't be as devastating, Baker said. "We think very few banks will run into issues just from their commercial real estate exposure," Reidy said.

Persons: Michael Barr, Jerome Powell, Todd Baker, Mark Hillis, Clifford Rossi, Robert H, Rossi, Baker, There's, Hillis, multifamily, haven't, You'll, Banks, you'll, Rebel Cole, NYCB, Matt Reidy, Reidy, Cole Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, York Community Bank, SEC, Richman Center for Business, Law, Columbia University, JPMorgan, Smith, Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, Mortgage Banker's Association, Bank, Signature Bank, First, Countrywide Bank, Washington Mutual, Citigroup, multifamily, Florida Atlantic University, Federal, Regulators, TCRE, Equity RCRE, Community Bank, Provident Bank NJ, Merchants Bank of Indiana, Apple Bank for Savings, Oceanfirst Bank, Independent Bank, Lakeland Bank NJ, Ozk, Washington Federal Bank WA, Axos Bank, Sandy Spring Bank, Columbia Bank NJ, Farmers, Merchants Bank of CA, Popular Bank, Pacific Premier Bank, United Bank, Trust, Rockland Trust, Umpqua Bank, ServisFirst Bank, Bell Bank, Stellar Bank, National Bank of, National Bank of Florida FL, New York Community Bank Locations: multifamily, Basel, CRE, California, Rockland, National Bank of Florida

☆ What dream job? Gen Z and millennials are being forced to confront a difficult job market.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% last month, the highest level in two years. AdvertisementGen Z and millennials entering the job market or in the early stages of their careers are facing a much tougher job market than in recent years, and many are adjusting their expectations for a dream career as the hiring landscape worsens. Despair about the ailing job market looks most acute among recent graduates, or students quickly approaching their graduation dates. AdvertisementOnly 44% of workers under 30 said they were "very satisfied" with their job, according to a 2023 Pew Research study. The job market boomed during the pandemic, with the unemployment rate going from 6.4% at the beginning of 2021 to 3.5% at the end of 2022.

Persons: Z, —, Gen Zers, Harry Holzer, Natasha Bernfeld, Bernfeld, Larry Jackson, he's, they've, Jackson, Emily Bianchi, Bianchi, it's, Georgetown's Holzer, It's, Dua Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Challenger, McKinsey & Company, Labor Department, UC Berkeley's, Pew, Emory University Locations: Georgetown, New York, Dua

☆ 4 economic reports the market cares about most next week, including a fresh look at inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-09 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Within the Club, we heard this week from Foot Locker on Wednesday, then from Costco and Broadcom on Thursday. The big economic data drop of the week arrived Friday with February's nonfarm payrolls report . The center of attention is Tuesday's February consumer price index report . On Thursday, the February produce price index is due out. ET: Producer Price Index 8:30 a.m.

Persons: FactSet, Locker, Foot Locker, February's nonfarm, Jerome Powell, he's, we'll, MANU, LEN, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Mostafa Bassim Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Costco, Broadcom, Commerce, Federal, PPI, Ballard Power Systems, Fortrea Holdings, Casey's, Vail Resorts, MTN, Daniels, Midland, Kohl's Corporation, Kanzhun, Game Technology, Manchester United, Blade Air Mobility, Clover Health, Beauty Health, Energy Vault Holdings, PHX Minerals, Guild Holdings, Finance, Heron Therapeutics, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, Arcos Dorados Holdings, ARCO, Petco, Wellness Company, Farms, Sonoma, WSM, ESS Tech, DICK'S Sporting, Inc, Futu Holdings, Bear, Autolus Therapeutics, III Apparel, Solo Brands, Weibo Corporation, Embraer, CNBC, Washington DC, Anadolu, Getty Locations: U.S, Asana, ASAN, Williams, Washington, United States

☆ Dollar ends week under pressure as data keeps rate cut hopes alive
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February after holding at 3.7% for three straight months, the data showed. The euro got a lift this week as the dollar came under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded more confident about cutting interest rates in coming months. Currencies typically weaken if central banks lower interest rates. Against the yen, the dollar was 0.68% lower at 147.05 yen, its weakest since Feb. 2. Firming hopes that interest rates in the U.S. and Europe will start to fall in June also helped prop up the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Stuart Cole, Cole, Powell, Lindsey Bell, Kathleen Brooks, Sterling, BoE, Firming, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Equiti, ECB, Federal, Ventures, Bank of, Reuters, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, New Locations: Japan, Charlotte , North Carolina, Bank of Japan, U.S, Europe, New Zealand

☆ U.S. job growth totaled 275,000 in February but unemployment rate rose to 3.9%
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

watch nowJob creation topped expectations in February, but the unemployment rate moved higher and employment growth from the previous two months wasn't nearly as hot as initially reported. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 for the month while the jobless rate moved higher to 3.9%, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The jobless level increased as the household survey, used to calculate the unemployment rate, showed a decline of 184,000 in those employed. The increase came even though the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.5%, though the "prime age" rate increased to 83.5%, up two-tenths of a percentage point. An alternative jobless measure, sometimes called the "real" unemployment rate, that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons rose slightly to 7.3%.

Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Stocks, It's, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Dan North, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Treasury, Government, Futures, Allianz Trade, Capitol

☆ Chip stocks soar — plus, this lagging industrial is due for a catch-up trade
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. In fact, about half of the S & P 500's industrial stocks have hit records high since the start of 2024. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Powell, Jerome Powell, Jim, Shrugging, Eli Lilly, It's, Lilly, Cramer, Linde, TJ Maxx, we'll, Jim Cramer's, Alwyn Scott Organizations: CNBC, Federal, Qualcomm, Broadcom, Nvidia, Arm Holdings, Devices, Novo Nordisk, Club, Palo Alto, Palo, Honeywell, Aerospace, Berenberg, Eaton Corp, Burlington Stores, Marshalls, TJX Companies, Costco, Marvell Technology, Inc, Bloomberg, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Honeywell Aerospace Locations: cybersecurity, America, Phoenix

☆ Jobs report Friday is expected to show a slowing but still healthy labor market
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

If the forecast is close to accurate, it would mark a considerable downshift from January's explosive growth of 353,000, but still representative of a fairly vibrant labor market. "This is kind of a cautious labor market. ZipRecruiter's quarterly job-seeker survey showed expectations for the medium-term outlook hitting a series high, while applicants also indicated stronger levels of confidence in their financial wellbeing and current state of the labor market. A jobs market that remains red-hot could deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates this year as expected. In its most recent survey of economic conditions, the Fed found that the ultra-tight labor market has loosened somewhat, but there are still active pockets.

Persons: Spencer Platt, Dow, Julia Pollak, they're, Pollak, Raphael Bostic, they've, Tom Gimbel, Jerome Powell, Gimbel Organizations: Chelsea Market, Getty, Labor Department, Dow Jones, Employers, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Challenger, Labor, Survey, LaSalle Network, Big Tech Locations: Manhattan, New York City, U.S, Covid

☆ Private payrolls rose by 140,000 in February, less than expected, ADP reports
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Private sector job growth improved during February though growth was slightly less than expected, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Companies added 140,000 positions for the month, an increase from the upwardly revised 111,000 in January but a bit below the Dow Jones estimate for 150,000. Other industries showing solid gains included trade, transportation and utilities (24,000), finance (17,000) and the other services category (14,000). Of the total, 110,000 came from the services sector while goods producers added 30,000. In recent months, ADP has consistently undershot the closely watched report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which showed an increase of 353,000 in January, more than triple the ADP estimate.

Persons: Dow Jones, Nela Richardson Organizations: Companies, Labor, ADP, Bureau of Labor Statistics

☆ 10-year Treasury yield inches higher as investors look to Powell testimony
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over two basis points to 4.1623%. The 2-year Treasury was last less than one basis point higher to 4.5599%. U.S. Treasury yields on Wednesday were slightly higher as investors awaited testimony about monetary policy from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and looked to fresh economic data. Investors on Wednesday will be following testimony from Fed Chairman Powell, who is set to speak before the House Financial Services Committee. Markets were last pricing in rate cuts to begin in June, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, payrolls Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Financial Services, Fed

☆ U.S. stock futures are little changed after Nasdaq rallies to record high: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 23, 2024. U.S. stock futures were little changed Sunday night after the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite posted a record-high Friday, breaking its 2021 record, as stocks attempt to continue their weeks-long rally. Futures tied to the S&P 500 fell marginally, while Nasdaq-100 futures ticked slightly lower. Futures tied to the 30-stock Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 47 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq last week reached their seventh weekly gain in eight, while the Dow ended the week in the red.

Persons: Dow, David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Federal, ADP Employment Survey, Manufacturing Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Fed Chair Powell and jobs data take center stage next week as Wall Street weighs interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Next week, the first full trading week of March, macroeconomic concerns will take center stage for investors. Next week, the Fed chief is largely anticipated to stick to the same talking points in testifying before Congress. In fact, the February jobs report, due out next Friday, is expected to show a moderation in payroll gains. Hourly Earnings preliminary (February) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (February) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (February) 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (February) 8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (February) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (February) — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox and Yun Li contributed to this report.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Shannon Saccocia, Kim Forrest, Webull, Michael Hartnett, CNBC's Yun Li, Melissa Brown, Brown, Wealth's Saccocia, Saccocia, Nonfarm Payrolls, —, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox, Yun Li Organizations: Federal, Fed, Capitol, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, FactSet, Barclays, Bokeh Capital Partners, Labor Department, Bitcoin, BofA Global Research, Apple, Nvidia, Ross Stores, Costco Wholesale, Kroger, . Semiconductor, Broadcom, PMI, PMI Services, Services PMI, Ross, Target, ADP, Labor, Consumer Credit Locations: U.S, REITs, Japan

☆ Fed rate hikes are creeping back into the conversation
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. AdvertisementExperts maintain that any hikes this year are unlikely, but say it's notable how they have creeped back into the policy conversation once again. "You can't say zero probability for something to break in the event of another rate hike," Jason Draho, head of asset allocation in the Americas for UBS Global Wealth Management, told Business Insider. "That last mile [of inflation] will be harder to obtain," Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise Financial's chief market strategist, told Business Insider. "The Fed's erring on the side of hawkishness," Hunter told Business Insider.

Persons: —, Larry Summers, Summers, Jason Draho, you'd, Goldman Sachs, Anthony Saglimbene, Ameriprise, Paul Mielczarski, Mielczarski, Ameriprise's Saglimbene, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, PPI, Fed, Former, Bloomberg, Traders, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics Locations: Americas, OER, Brandywine, hawkishness

☆ The Fed has a very strong case to keep rates higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Yet Jerome Powell and his central bank colleagues have rebuffed those forecasts, and markets have pushed their rate cut predictions further into 2024. And the producer price index for January came in at 0.3% on Friday, higher than the expected 0.1% increase. Jimmy Chang, the chief investment officer for Rockefeller Global Family Office, told Business Insider that it would be difficult for the Fed to cut rates in the current landscape. AdvertisementThe Fed's next moveThe case for keeping rates unchanged has gained momentum over recent weeks, but both markets and the Fed ultimately expect easing interest rates in 2024. Bank of America forecasts that the first cut likely won't happen until June, and policymakers could opt to cut rates "later and faster."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Nonfarm payrolls, Mary Daly, agilely, Joe Seydl, Seydl, Jimmy Chang, Chang, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jay Woods, We're, Woods, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Atlanta Fed, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan Private Bank, Rockefeller Global Family Office, Fed, Chicago Fed, Council, Foreign Relations, Freedom Capital Markets, Bank of America

☆ Treasury yields climb as investors consider interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors weighed the path ahead for interest rates following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Investors considered the outlook for interest rates and awaited the fresh data that could provide hints about the state of the economy. Powell told CBS on Sunday that the central bank would be careful when it comes to interest rate cuts and that policymakers were still looking for additional evidence of inflation returning to the Fed's 2% target range. Powell also indicated that the pace of rate cuts would likely be slower than markets are expecting, and reiterated comments he made after the Fed's meeting last week saying that rate cuts are unlikely to begin in March. At its meeting last week, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged for the fourth time in a row, but indicated that rate cuts would likely start this year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Nonfarm, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Investors, CBS, Fed

☆ Dollar scales fresh peaks as Fed cut bets recede
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"A one-two punch from Jay Powell's FOMC presser and a very strong nonfarm payrolls report have essentially closed the door on a March rate cut," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. The Japanese yen was last 0.15% lower at 148.58 per dollar, having hit a trough of 148.82 earlier in the session. Treasury yields also jumped on expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. rates, with the two-year yield, which typically reflects near-term interest rate expectations, last up nearly seven bps at 4.4386%. That did little to help the yuan, with the offshore yuan last marginally lower at 7.2182 per dollar, pressured by a stronger greenback. "So far we've just seen speculation and some media reports talking about further support for the equity market or the property market.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Jay Powell's FOMC presser, Chris Weston, Powell, Carol Kong, CBA's Organizations: Federal Reserve, New, Traders, Fed, CBS, Sterling, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, New Zealand

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