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☆ Premarket stocks: Welcome to the 'rolling recession' economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Yet US manufacturing has likely already contracted into a recession, housing sales have plummeted, tech layoffs keep coming and corporate earnings growth is souring. “We continue to think the economy will suffer from rolling recessions, evidenced by the fact that corporate earnings growth is now entering its downturn,” wrote Sonders in a note on Wednesday. For five straight weeks, the bank’s clients have been big buyers of individual stocks and sellers of ETFs, she wrote. Disney revenue in the quarter rose 8% to $23.5 billion, edging past estimates of $23.4 billion from analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. The company reported revenue of $8.6 billion for the quarter, beating Wall Street’s estimates and marking a 49% increase from the prior year.

MUMBAI, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to decline against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, weighed by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and higher oil prices. The non-deliverable forwards indicated the rupee would open around 82.60-82.62 per dollar, compared with the 82.4925 closing in the previous session. Fed officials on Wednesday said more interest rate rises are on the cards in the central bank's efforts to bring down inflation. Moving to a rate of between 5.00% and 5.25% "seems a very reasonable view," New York Fed President John Williams said. Fed fund futures are pricing in rate cuts of about 30 to 35 basis points after peaking at around 5.12% in July.

☆ Gold gains as U.S. dollar eases off one-month peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold and Silver bullion is offered for sale at the Chicago Coin Company May 11, 2006 in Chicago, Illinois. Gold prices ticked higher on Wednesday as the dollar retreated from a one-month peak after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell did not revert to a more hawkish stance despite last week's stronger-than-expected jobs report. Following Powell's remarks, the dollar index eased from a one-month high and was down 0.1% on the day. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Fed would probably have to raise interest rates to at least 5.4% in order to tame high inflation. Although gold is seen as an inflation hedge, high interest rates lift the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.

☆ Premarket stocks: Here's what keeps Jerome Powell up at night and interest rates high
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Structural changes in the labor market: The US economy added an astonishing 517,000 jobs in January, blowing economists’ expectations out of the water. “The labor market is extraordinarily strong,” he said. Core services inflation: Powell noted that he’s seeing disinflation in the goods sector and expects to soon see declining inflation in housing. Service-sector inflation, which is more sensitive to a strong labor market, is up 7.5% from the year prior through the end of 2022, and has not abated, he said. Tech layoffs, Big Oil and soft landings: What investors are watching▸ The labor market is strong, but tech layoffs keep coming.

☆ Treasury yields decline as investors assess monetary policy outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

One basis points is equivalent to 0.01%. ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was trading at 3.6490% after falling by more than two basis points. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was down by close to four basis points to 4.4334%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors assessed the monetary policy outlook after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's latest comments. The central bank has been implementing monetary policy measures including rate hikes in an effort to slow the economy and cool inflation.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell confesses 'This time it's different'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Any fear of a radical Fed rethink on the back of the jobs numbers seemed wide of the mark. "This cycle is different from other cycles...it has just confounded all sorts of attempts to predict," Powell admitted. And many think last week's jobs report should similarly be treated with care. They included a minimum tax for billionaires and a quadrupling of the tax on corporate stock buybacks. Brands, Eaton Corp, etcUS terminal rateReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

"We didn't expect it to be this strong," Powell said, but it "shows why we think this will be a process that takes quite a bit of time." It has just confounded all sorts of attempts to predict," Powell said, noting that wage growth has slowed even with continued strong job gains. Officials raised the target interest rate a quarter point to a range between 4.5% and 4.75% at that session, and said in the latest policy statement that "ongoing increases" would be needed. 1 2 3 4 5As of December, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation was increasing at a 5% annual rate, still more than double the Fed's target. While Powell said he expected "significant declines in inflation" this year, the U.S. economy was still "in the beginning of getting that down."

"It tells me that so far, we're not seeing much of an imprint ... on the labor market," Kashkari said. Bond yields have rocketed higher and interest rate futures markets now are squarely priced for a federal funds rate reaching at least 5.1%. LABOR MARKET CONCERNSOn Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic was one of those who said the central bank may need to lift borrowing costs higher than previously anticipated given the job gains. "We've seen no progress so far, virtually no progress in core services ex housing, and that's very tied to the labor market." Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Andrew Heavens, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

U.S. and European equity markets were mixed to lower, with the euro and pound lower against the dollar. The broad pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) was up 0.04% and MSCI's gauge of global stock performance (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.12%. "What's been really important is that the market sees a lower likelihood of rate cuts by the end of the year." Asian stocks stabilized overnight after they, like most global share markets, suffered steep losses following that U.S jobs data. "Sentiment in markets is dominated by central banks and the repricing of rates yet again," Kerry Craig, JPMorgan Asset Management's global market strategist, said.

☆ Fed's Kashkari sticks to 5.4% rate hike view after 'surprising' jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"I think it surprised all of us," Kashkari said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC, referring to a blowout January jobs report in which more than half a million employment gains were reported by the U.S. government. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to speak later on Tuesday at 1240 EST (1740 GMT). Last week the U.S. central bank increased its benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter-of-a-percentage-point to 4.5%-4.75%. Powell reiterated expectations that the Fed was eyeing a pause in the 5%-to-5.25% range as sufficiently restrictive in its fight against high inflation. January's jobs report, however, upended investor expectations after the U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected and the unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, the lowest reading since 1969.

☆ Fed's Kashkari says he's sticking to 5.4% rate hike view after 'surprising' jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"I think it surprised all of us," Kashkari said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC, referring to a blowout January jobs report in which more than half a million employment gains were reported by the U.S. government. "Nobody should overreact to one report...but the underlying strength of the services sector of the economy is still very robust. And that's where I think a lot of us are focusing our attention... right now I'm still at around 5.4%. If I had to pick a number today, that would be where I was." Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Andrew HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed's Neel Kashkari says central bank has not made enough progress, keeping his rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

We know that raising rates can put a lid on inflation," Kashkari told CNBC during a Tuesday morning interview on " Squawk Box ." Kashkari's indication that the fed funds rate needs to rise to 5.4% puts him in a more aggressive slot compared to his fellow policymakers, who indicated in December that they see the "terminal rate," or end point of hikes, around 5.1%. The funds rate is what banks charge each other for overnight lending but feeds into a multitude of consumer debt instruments such as car loans, mortgages and credit cards. Since March 2022, the Fed has raised its benchmark funds rate eight times, after inflation hit its highest rate in more than 40 years. Still, inflation levels, though easing, are well ahead of the Fed's target, and policymakers have indicated that more rate increases are on the way.

☆ Forgotten parts of the market lead the way in 2023 as advisors wrestle with how to play the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Everyone here is amazed at how forgotten segments of the market have rebounded in 2023: international, growth, small cap and bonds. Advisors here are having a hard time wrapping their heads around the idea that there would be a recession ins 2023, and now maybe not. "With real wage growth, large payroll growth and earnings beating expectations it equals a soft landing at worst and maybe no recession near term." Most advisors here are coming to grips with Powell's insistence the Fed will not lower rates this year. Their Equal Weight S & P 500 ETF (RSP) has also attracted significant inflows from investors wary of market cap weighted indexes.

☆ US stocks slip as investors brace for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks traded lower Tuesday, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak at 12:40 p.m. Markets rallied last week after the Fed's 25-basis-point rate hike and Powell's upbeat comments on the economy. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said Tuesday the tight labor market shows the central bank has more to do to bring inflation back under control. After Powell's disinflation comment following the Fed's 25-basis-point rate hike last week, markets rallied. Investors interpreted the press conference as more dovish, and on Tuesday they will be watching for insight into upcoming monetary policy.

☆ Minneapolis Fed President: I'm not sure we've done enough to bring the labor market into balance
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMinneapolis Fed President: I'm not sure we've done enough to bring the labor market into balanceMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss whether his federal funds rate projections were changed by Friday's jobs report, and what the employment picture needs to look like for the Fed to declare a 'success.'

☆ Watch Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discuss inflation, interest rates and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks Tuesday afternoon in a question-and-answer session with Carlyle Group Chairman David Rubenstein. The discussion comes less than a week after the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate another quarter percentage point to a target range of 4.5%-4.75%. Following the move, Powell said he sees some signs that inflation is cooling in the economy but added that the central bank needs to keep up its guard. Read more:Fed's Neel Kashkari says central bank has not made enough progress, keeping his rate outlookThe Fed raised rates. Chair Powell says it's 'premature' to declare victory against inflationImportant wage inflation measure for the Fed rose less than expected in Q4

☆ Inflation: Fed's Neel Kashkari says prices are still too high
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —Neel Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, understands that consumers are still struggling to deal with high prices. Kashkari told CNN’s Poppy Harlow Tuesday that he knows first hand how expensive many consumer goods and services are. Job market strength fueling more inflationKashkari acknowledged that inflation pressures are easing, but said the Fed is still not comfortable with how high prices are, particularly for services. He told Harlow he’s penciling in short-term rates as high as 5.4% before pausing. It’s hard to have a recession when the job market is still so robust, he told Harlow.

☆ Fed's Kashkari: Fed has more work to do
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's Kashkari: Fed has more work to doMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari joined Squawk Box for an exclusive conversation about the January jobs report, the Fed's inflation fight, and just how high rates will go.

Powell faces a similar task this year but with the inflation problem turned on its head. As such, the Fed, which has been under Powell's leadership since early 2018, has flagged a downshift this year to a gradual pace of interest rate increases to reduce the risk of a policy mistake. Part of that withdrawal of stimulus included starting its balance sheet drawdown. For some that made kicking off the balance sheet drawdown at the July meeting less attractive than the September meeting, when then-Chair Yellen would speak with the press at its conclusion. "I see no advantage at all to moving it to July," then Fed governor Lael Brainard said.

☆ Morning Bid: Money in the bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Kicking off the fourth-quarter corporate results season in earnest, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon and Wells Fargo are among the countries biggest banks updating on Friday. It will take some twist to puncture the optimism on peak inflation and peak Federal Reserve interest rates, however. Futures markets still see rates topping out below 5% by midyear and pencil in a half point of rate cuts between then and yearend. The yen surged on speculation the Bank of Japan could revise its ultra-loose monetary policy again at next week's policy meeting. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ No fears on Friday the 13th
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaIs there anything spooky about Friday the 13th? Well, certainly not for global equity investors as they cheered U.S. inflation data that showed the Fed's aggressive rate increases are having the desired effect. European equities, perched at nine-month highs, are poised to open on a strong footing on Friday. Fed policymakers expressed relief that inflation continued easing in December and signalled that a rate-hike slowdown was coming. Four American banking giants are forecast to report lower quarterly profits as lenders stockpile rainy-day funds to prepare for an economic slowdown that is battering investment banking.

☆ Futures subdued as focus shifts to results from big U.S. banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

With the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening campaign to combat inflation, higher borrowing costs have prompted consumers and businesses to curb their spending, impacting banks' profits as demand for credit slows. "Bank earnings are going to be a big test," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK. "It will be interesting to see whether they (banks) have made any further provisions for non-performing loans, how they see demand for loans." Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N), BlackRock Inc (BLK.N) and UnitedHealth Group Inc (UNH.N) are also scheduled to report fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. ET, Dow e-minis were up 10 points, or 0.03%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 0.5 points, or 0.01%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 16.5 points, or 0.14%.

☆ Wharton's Jeremy Siegel says the U.S. has 'really solved the inflation problem'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve must understand inflation has been dealt with and stop raising interest rates, according to Jeremy Seigel, a closely followed finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School. Seigel said on CNBC's "Halftime Report" that the market has rallied so far this year because investors see signs that inflation is coming back down. He said Thursday's consumer price index report for December was a data point that could be taken, with some tweaks, to show inflation is a problem for the country that has been "solved." "The Fed is, at some time, going to be forced to realize that we've really solved the inflation problem," Seigel said on "Halftime Report." He called it a lagging data point, pointing to other data such as rental indexes that shows housing costs have actually come down .

Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. central bank is already adjusting to one unanticipated set of changes - an outbreak of inflation coupled with stalled growth in the U.S. labor force. "You have to identify the regime change ... Then you have to understand the transition dynamics ... and have a clear vision and insight into all of those ... "Markets calibrated to ... Chinese growth and low interest rates may prove fragile." Like recessions, which are typically identified only well after they have started, other economic turning points aren't always apparent in the moment. But as evidence of that accumulated following the 2007-2009 recession, it was only embodied into Fed policy in 2020 under a new approach that leaned against premature interest rate increases.

The longer that job market strength persists, the more Fed officials may feel compelled to break it with ever-higher interest rates. "I don't think we can understate the importance of labor market outcomes," Duy wrote. Reuters Graphics'SURGE PRICING'The job market has befuddled central bankers during the COVID-19 pandemic as much as inflation. Early expectations that a flood of workers back into the labor market would ease wage and hiring conditions proved optimistic. Officials then expected inflation to rise for any number of reasons, from the Fed's own massive bond purchases to a steadily falling unemployment rate.

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