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☆ China PMI, bumper 'Golden Week' travel give glimmers of hope for economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

PMI data released by Caixin Media and S&P Global showed both manufacturing and services losing some momentum. “We see increasing evidence of a near-term growth stabilization,” Nomura analysts said in a research note on Saturday, thanks partly to the raft of policy measures unveiled since late July, they added. While domestic travel for the Golden Week holiday appears strong, Chinese consumers are leaving the mainland in fewer numbers. Preliminary statistics from ForwardKeys, a global travel data provider, last week showed that Chinese travel within Asia was down 33% on pre-pandemic levels. On the first day of the Golden Week holiday, the number of mainland Chinese tourists entering Hong Kong was still less than half of 2018’s level, the city’s government said over the weekend.

Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, Stringer, “, ” Nomura, Julie Kozack, Xu Jiayin, Xu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau, Statistics, PMI, Caixin Media, P Global, Getty, China State Railway Group, Ministry, Transport, Ministry of Culture, Tourism, NBS, ” Citi, International Monetary Fund, Bank, Golden, Evergrande Group Locations: Hong Kong, Nantong, China's Jiangsu, AFP, China, Hangzhou, China's, Zhejiang, Beijing, Asia

An employee works on the production line at Jingjin filter press factory in Dezhou, Shandong province, China August 25, 2022. China's non-manufacturing PMI, which incorporates sub-indexes for service sector activity and construction, also rose, coming in at 51.7 versus August's 51.0. PROPERTY RISKSMore stable economic indicators will be welcomed by policymakers as they continue to grapple with a property sector debt crisis that has rattled global markets. Analysts say more policy support will be needed to ensure China's economy can hit the government's growth target of about 5% this year. "China's economy stabilised partly driven by the loosening of property sector policies," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management.

Persons: Siyi Liu, Zhou Hao, Zhiwei Zhang, Ryan Woo, Tina Qiao, Joe Cash, Michael Perry, William Mallard Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, Guotai, China Evergrande, HK, Asian Development Bank, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Dezhou, Shandong province, China, BEIJING

BEIJING (AP) — China's factory activity in September recorded its first expansion in six months, an official survey said Saturday, providing another sign that the world's second-largest economy is gradually improving following its post-pandemic malaise. The composite index rose to 52 from 51.3. Zhao said the improvement indicated by the latest indexes suggest the level of economic activity is rebounding. However, China's economic rebound remained uneven. China's economy grew at a 6.3% annual pace in the second quarter of this year, much slower than the 7%-plus growth that analysts had forecast based on the anemic pace of activity the year before.

Persons: —, Zhao Qinghe, Zhao, Hui Ka Yan Organizations: BEIJING, National Bureau of Statistics, China Federation of Logistics, Purchasing, China Evergrande, Investment Locations: China, Hong Kong

☆ Extreme fear is haunting stock markets again. Here's why investors are running scared
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 index (SPX) has risen 11% since the start of the year, the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NDX) 33%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 (STOXX) 5%. The Stoxx Europe 600 has fallen 3.3%. ‘Higher for longer’ interest ratesThe world’s major central banks have spent the past two years hiking borrowing costs in a bid to control runaway inflation. High interest rates typically put pressure on stocks, since investors tend to favor bonds when they offer comparable returns as they are safer. An ailing ChinaA slew of disappointing economic data out of China has also put pressure on stocks.

Persons: Michael Hewson, —, Cushing, Strategic Petroleum Reserve —, Goldman Sachs, Giovanni Staunovo, Brent, stoking Organizations: London CNN —, CMC, CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Brent, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, UBS, country’s National Bureau of Statistics, Evergrande Group Locations: United States, Europe, Saudi Arabia, Russia, OPEC, Cushing , Oklahoma, Ukraine, Saudi, China, Hong Kong

☆ China's industrial profits extend slump for Jan-Aug, but pace of downturn eases
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NBS statistician Yu Weining said in an accompanying statement that "a series of policies to promote macroeconomic recovery" last month's underpinned earnings. The breakdown in NBS data indicated that there was still some way to go for a robust recovery in overall earnings growth. Profits at state-owned firms slid 3.8% in first eight months, and fell 1.3% for foreign firms while private-sector companies saw earnings shrink 6.1%, the data showed. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.75 million) from their main operations. Reporting by Qiaoyi Li and Ryan Woo and Beijing newsroom Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Yu Weining, Qiaoyi Li, Ryan Woo, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bureau of Statistics, Jones, NBS, Thomson Locations: Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China, Rights BEIJING, Beijing

☆ China Risks Property Debt
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Source: China Real Estate Information Corp. (CRIC)The physical size of Country Garden’s real estate portfolio is enormous. The Weight of Debt The ballooning debt crisis could delay the prospect of a recovery of both the property market and the broader Chinese economy, in which real estate is a core pillar. China property sector slump China’s property sales, investment and funds raised by property developers slid in January - August 2023 after a sharp fall in 2022. China's property sector accounts for more than half of global new home sales and home building, according to Nomura. Any contraction in the property sector will affect China’s growth, thus sending ripple effects around the globe as the world’s factory slows.

Persons: Evergrande, homebuyers, Nomura, David Stanway, Jason Lee, –, Moody's, Yawen Chen, Amr Alfiky Organizations: Country, Garden, Estate Information Corp, CIFI Holdings, Sunac, National Bureau of Statistics, China, Investment, REUTERS, International Monetary Fund, Nomura, JPMorgan, Dubai, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: China, Burj, Burj Khalifa, Sunac China, Kunming, Yunnan province, Beijing, Xuchang, Henan province, United Arab Emirates

☆ Evergrande's debt revamp roadblock hits China property investors' sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

China Evergrande Group's logo is seen on its headquarters in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China, Sept. 26, 2021. "Its debt restructuring plan is now stuck and can't go any further," said Steven Leung, sales director at UOB Kay Hian in Hong Kong. Evergrande's offshore debt restructuring involves a total of $31.7 billion, which includes bonds, collateral and repurchase obligations, potentially making it one of the world's biggest such exercises. "Concern over the financial health (of developers) still clouds the property sector, especially those smaller property developers with high gearing but very few property projects on hand," Leung said. The latest roadblock in Evergrande's debt restructuring plan opens a new front for the developer just a week after police detained some staff at its wealth management unit, sending its shares slumping.

Persons: Aly, Group's, Hengda, Hong, Steven Leung, UOB Kay Hian, Leung, Evergrande, Donny Kwok, Anne Marie Roantree, Sumeet Chatterjee, Lincoln, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, HK, Hengda, Estate Group Co, China Oceanwide Holdings, National Bureau of Statistics, Thomson Locations: China, Shenzhen, Guangdong province, HONG KONG, firming, Seng, Hong Kong, Bermuda

☆ China's 1.4 billion population can't fill the country's millions of empty homes. Here's 3 things that would.
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Matthew Loh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

He said the estimate is extreme, but said even China's 1.4 billion people can't fill all of them. "How many vacant homes are there now?" The most extreme believe the number of vacant homes are now enough for 3 billion people. But China has yet to publish an official estimate on the total floor space of its empty homes. Government statistics from August say the total area of all unsold homes in China is around 7 billion square feet, per Reuters.

Persons: that's, it's Organizations: Service, China, National Bureau of Statistics, Government, Reuters, Strategic Research Institute, Chinese Academy of personnel Management Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Western Europe, Beijing, Dongguan

☆ Defeating inflation without high unemployment is still unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

And the US economy’s surprising resilience, despite 11 rate hikes, has raised hopes of a soft landing becoming a reality. “I’ve always thought that the soft landing was a plausible outcome, that there was a path to a soft landing,” he said. But historical records show that a soft landing has only occurred once in the 1990s, or perhaps even a handful of times. The US Commerce Department releases its final estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product. The US Commerce Department releases August data on household income, spending, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, “ I’ve, ”, “, Powell’s, ” “ Jerome Powell, ” Quincy Krosby, Krosby, ” Krosby, Matt Egan, ” Neil Bradley, “ We’ve, Read, Christine Lagarde, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, John Williams Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Fed, LPL, CNN, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, European Central Bank, Costco, Global, Board, Survey, US Commerce Department, Micron, Nike, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Carnival Corp, University of Michigan, New York Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington

☆ Even 1.4 billion people 'probably can't fill' all of China's vacant homes, ex-official admits
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Big-name developers such as Country Garden Holdings continue to teeter close to default even to this day, keeping home-buyer sentiment depressed. As of the end of August, the combined floor area of unsold homes stood at 648 million square meters (7 billion square feet), the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show. That would be equal to 7.2 million homes, according to Reuters calculations, based on the average home size of 90 square meters (970 square feet). “How many vacant homes are there now? Each expert gives a very different number, with the most extreme believing the current number of vacant homes are enough for 3 billion people,” said He Keng, 81, a former deputy head of the statistics bureau.

Persons: ”, Keng Organizations: China Evergrande, Garden Holdings, National Bureau of Statistics, China News Service Locations: China, Dongguan

☆ Even China's 1.4 billion population can't fill all its vacant homes, former official says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

As of the end of August, the combined floor area of unsold homes stood at 648 million square metres (7 billion square feet), the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show. That would be equal to 7.2 million homes, according to Reuters calculations, based on the average home size of 90 square metres. "How many vacant homes are there now? Each expert gives a very different number, with the most extreme believing the current number of vacant homes are enough for 3 billion people," said He Keng, 81, a former deputy head of the statistics bureau. "All sorts of comments predicting the collapse of China's economy keep surfacing every now and then, but what has collapsed is such rhetoric, not China's economy," a spokesperson at the foreign ministry said at a recent news conference.

Persons: Keng, Albee Zhang, Ryan Woo, Jan Harvey Organizations: China Evergrande, HK, Garden Holdings, National Bureau of Statistics, China News Service, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Dongguan

Asia's hydropower output fell 17.9% during the seven months through July, data from energy think tank Ember showed, while fossil fuel-fired power rose 4.5%. In India, hydropower generation fell 6.2% during the eight months ended August in the sharpest decline since 2016. In some cases, the hydropower output plunge was a result of efforts to conserve water and alter supply patterns. "This trend of rapidly increasing wind or solar power generation in China could push for hydropower playing this critical regulating function, instead of operating whenever there is water," he added. However, unlike hydro, wind power is harder to forecast and control, as it varies by local weather conditions.

Persons: Carlos Torres Diaz, Rystad, Lauri Myllyvirta, Myllyvirta, Ember, Victor Vanya, Sudarshan Varadhan, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bureau, International Energy Agency, Centre for Research, Clean Energy, Air, Thomson Locations: Qiaojia, Yunnan province, Ningnan, Sichuan province, China, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, India, Vietnam, India's, Philippines, Malaysia, Ember

CO2 storage tanks are seen at a cement plant and carbon capture facility in Wuhu, Anhui province, China September 11, 2019. China's cement sector discharged 853 million tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2021, according to the Global Carbon Atlas, nearly six times more than the next largest cement producer, India. The cement sector accounts for roughly 12% of China's total carbon emissions, according to Fidelity International, and along with steel is one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters. China’s cement output hits multi-year seasonal lowsSome cement producers will likely look to boost exports in an effort to offset lower domestic sales, and in July China's total cement exports hit their highest since late 2019. And if that's the case, the sector's emissions will come down too, yielding a rare climate benefit to the ongoing property market disruption.

Persons: David Stanway, Gavin Maguire, Miral Organizations: REUTERS, World Cement Association, Global Carbon Atlas, Fidelity International, China Evergrande Group, Shanghai, China National Bureau, Vietnam National Cement Association, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Wuhu, Anhui province, China, LITTLETON , Colorado, China's, India, Beijing, Vietnam, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia

☆ China's property price caps have two sharp edges
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( Chan Ka Sing | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG, Sept 18 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Chinese developers are in trouble. When the mood was bullish, price caps in major cities were far below what people were willing to pay. Scrapping the price caps would be a cleaner fix and officials are weighing up such a move, Reuters reported this month. CONTEXT NEWSChina's Guangzhou city has cancelled price caps on new residential projects, Caixin reported on Sept. 12. Price caps of various kinds were introduced in many Chinese cities from 2016 following the central government’s call for a stable residential market.

Persons: Zhao Youming, Tingshu Wang, Caixin, Price, Una Galani, Thomas Shum Organizations: Gaotie Wellness, REUTERS, Reuters, HK, Bureau of Statistics, Thomson Locations: Tongchuan, Shaanxi, China, HONG KONG, Guangzhou

This was reversed in August as strong crude imports and steady domestic output outweighed the record refinery processing rates. This was up 19.6% from the same month in 2022 and also stronger than July's 14.87 million bpd. Crude imports were 12.43 million bpd in August, the third-highest daily rate on record and up 20.9% from July and 30.9% from August last year. Subtracting processing of 15.23 million bpd leaves a surplus of 1.32 million bpd that flowed into storage tanks. The question is how will China's refiners respond to the higher crude oil prices?

Persons: shouldn't, China doesn't, China's, refiners, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Brent, Saudi, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, OPEC, pare, Iran, Russia, Venezuela

☆ China’s retail sales surprise with faster growth, up 4.6% in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

BEIJING — China's retail sales and industrial production picked up pace in August with better-than-expected growth, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Friday. Retail sales grew by 4.6% in August from a year ago, beating expectations for 3% growth forecast by a Reuters poll. The increase was also faster than the 2.5% year-on-year pace in July. Industrial production grew by 4.5% in August from a year ago, better than the 3.9% forecast and faster than the 3.7% increase reported for July. That missed expectations for a 3.3% increase and was slower than the 3.4% pace reported as of July.

Persons: Fu Linghui Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Chongqing, China, BEIJING

August throughput was also up from July's 14.87 million bpd. Year-to-date throughput gained 11.9% from a year earlier to 491.4 million tons, or 14.76 million bpd. The NBS data on Friday also showed China's domestic crude oil production in August gained 3.1% from a year earlier to 17.47 million metric tons, or 4.11 million bpd. The year-to-date volume rose 2.1% from a year earlier to 139.85 million tons, or 4.2 million bpd. Natural gas production last month rose 6.3% from a year earlier to 18.1 billion cubic metres (bcm), the NBS said.

Persons: Andrew Hayley, Chen Aizhu, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Air, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, Thomson

☆ China’s Slumping Economy: What the Latest Numbers Are Signaling
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Keith Bradsher | More About Keith Bradsher | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

China’s trains, planes, stores and beaches were a little fuller last month than a year ago, and the pace of activity picked up at factories, particularly those making mobile phones and semiconductors. A batch of numbers released on Friday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed a modest improvement in the country’s overall retail sales and industrial production during August. A series of small steps taken by the government over the summer, including two rounds of interest rate cuts, seems to be yielding a slightly better-than-expected improvement in the country’s economy. “The national economy has accelerated its recovery, production and supply have increased steadily, market demand has gradually improved,” Fu Linghui, China’s director of national economic statistics, said at a news conference. “Some may be of the view that China’s economy has already bottomed out, but we remain cautious,” said a research note from Nomura, a Japanese bank.

Persons: ” Fu Linghui, ”, Nomura Organizations: China’s National Bureau, Statistics

☆ Sino Ocean: China property woes deepen as a big developer suspends debt payments
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Michelle Toh | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —A major Chinese property company has suspended offshore debt payments, deepening turmoil in the beleaguered sector. Property sales by floor area dropped 7.1% in the January to August months, compared to the first eight months of 2022. On Thursday, Moody’s downgraded its outlook for the overall sector, citing a downturn in residential sales and continued jitters about the health of the industry. In June and July, nationwide property sales fell around 20% compared to the same period a year before, it said in a report. This reversed “the 11.9% growth for the first five months, reflecting renewed weakness in residential property,” the agency added.

Persons: Houlihan Loukey, Sidley Austin, Moody’s, — CNN’s Juliana Liu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Hong, National Bureau, Statistics, China SCE Group Locations: China, Hong Kong, Sino, Beijing

☆ China's property slump worsens, clouding recovery prospects
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Residential buildings under construction at the Tao Yuan Tian Jing project, developed by China Evergrande Group, in Yangzhou, China, on Thursday, Sept. 7, 2023. Speculative bets that Chinese authorities will widen support for the property sector sent some of the country's ailing developers surging by the most on record. A slump in China's property sector worsened in August, with deepening falls in new home prices, property investment and sales, despite a recent flurry of support measures, adding pressure to the world's second-largest economy. For August, property investment fell for the 18th straight month, down 19.1% year-on-year from a 17.8% slump the previous month, separate data showed on Friday. Home sales are down for the 26th consecutive month, according to Reuters calculations based on the data.

Persons: Yuan Tian Jing Organizations: China Evergrande Group, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Yangzhou, China, Beijing

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, also increased at a faster 4.6% pace in August aided by the summer travel season, and was the quickest growth since May. The upbeat data suggest that a flurry of recent measures including property support policies to shore up a faltering economic recovery are starting to bear fruit. "Despite signs of stabilisation in manufacturing and related investment, the deteriorating property investment will continue to pressure economic growth," said Gary Ng, Natixis Asia Pacific senior economist. Ng said confidence remains the root of most problems requiring larger "constructive policy and regulatory changes" to boost growth momentum. For August, property investment extended its fall, down 19.1% year-on-year from a 17.8% slump the previous month, according to Reuters calculations based on NBS data.

Persons: Gary Ng, Ng, Albee Zhang, Liangping Gao, Kevin Yao, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, National Bureau of Statistics, Natixis Asia Pacific, Thomson Locations: Wuhan, Hubei province, China, BEIJING, U.S

☆ China's real estate sector is still in a period of 'adjustment,' says statistics bureau
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's real estate sector is still in a period of 'adjustment,' says statistics bureauHowever, the National Bureau of Statistics of China said the country's advanced manufacturing and services sectors are growing. CNBC's Evelyn Cheng reports.

Persons: CNBC's Evelyn Cheng Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics Locations: China

☆ China's house-price slump drags on as Beijing battles to shore up the country's crisis-hit property sector
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Chinese house prices fell last month, according to data released Friday. The world's second-largest economy is grappling with a property crisis that's threatened to drag down growth. Policymakers have responded by cutting down-payment requirements and mortgage rates. The figures cover a period before policymakers slashed down-payment requirements and allowed lenders to cut mortgage rates in a bid to boost China's long-suffering real-estate sector. Falling house prices tend to weigh on a country's overall level of wealth, which fuels a decline in spending that drags down growth.

Persons: Evergrande Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Statistics, Fantasia Holdings Locations: Wall, Silicon, Beijing

☆ China August industrial output, retail sales growth beat expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

An employee inspects a circuit board on the controller production line at a Gree factory, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, Hubei province, China August 16, 2021. The data released on Friday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) beat expectations for a 3.9% increase in a Reuters poll of analysts, and marked the quickest rate since April. Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, also grew at a faster 4.6% pace in August aided by the summer travel season, and was the quickest growth since May. Fixed asset investment expanded 3.2% in the first eight months of 2023 from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 3.3% rise. Reporting by Albee Zhang, Ellen Zhang and Joe Cash Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Albee Zhang, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Bureau of Statistics, Thomson Locations: Wuhan, Hubei province, China, Rights BEIJING, U.S

☆ The Fed is expected to hold rates steady next week, but its guidance will be key for investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to hold rates steady in the week ahead, but key for investors will be the central bank's guidance on where it's headed from here. Investors are assessing a mixed batch of economic reports ahead of the Fed's September policy meeting. Meanwhile, August retail sales came in better than expected, jumping 0.6% against a 0.1% increase expected by economists. Housing data released in the week ahead could show whether housing demand remains solid. Week ahead calendar All times ET.

Persons: Bank's Rob Haworth, Jerome Powell, Powell, Hogan, Instacart, Arm's, Mills, Lisa Cook, —, Jeff Cox, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Dow, Nasdaq, Investors, PPI, Federal, Riley, FedEx, Housing, Philadelphia Fed, Darden, FactSet, Systems, National Bureau of Economic Research, Artificial Intelligence, PMI, SA, PMI Manufacturing SA, PMI Services SA Locations: NAHB, Toronto, Canada

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