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read moreTwo-year yields crept back up to 4.46%, retracing a little of last week's sharp inflation-driven drop of 33 basis points to a low of 4.29%. The bond market's warnings of recession were not what Wall Street wanted to hear, and they left S&P 500 futures flat on Friday, while Nasdaq futures inched up 0.1%. EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.7% and FTSE futures 0.3%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) bounced 0.6%, after slipping for two sessions. The dollar edged up to 140.20 yen and away from its recent low of 137.67, but faced resistance around 140.70/80.

☆ UK bond dealers see jump in gilt issuance for 2023/24 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

However in the 2023/24 financial year, gilt issuance is expected to jump to 238 billion pounds, according to the median poll forecast, the second highest ever after the 486 billion pounds of issuance in 2020/21 to fund COVID-19 support measures. “It feels like there shouldn’t be too many surprises, but the gilt market remains febrile, and even small news could create oversized reactions,” he said. Gilt issuance is distinct from public sector net borrowing (PSNB), the main borrowing measure forecast by Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility. Here GEMMs expect PSNB, excluding public-sector banks, to rise to a median 187 billion pounds, almost double the 99 billion pounds forecast by the OBR in March. Next year it is forecast to fall to 142 billion pounds, versus an OBR forecast of 50.2 billion pounds.

☆ Analysis: Investors face expensive quest for year-end cash and safe assets
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Money markets too suggest securing cash and quality assets investors need to make a smooth transition into 2023 will be expensive. But analysts noted year-end is still 1-1/2 months away and the spread tends to widen in late November as demand for cash rises. The risk is any unexpected news emerging as liquidity thins further in December, requiring investors to reconsider positioning. BofA said it now sees year-end German repo 6 percentage points below the overnight rate, which it said would still make it the most expensive on record for investors borrowing bonds then. "It's still early days, but (last year's repo pricing) would probably be the best case already in terms of year-end pricing," Commerzbank's Leister said.

☆ Year-end rally ignited as inflation cools and rates fall, loosening their grip on stock market
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Treasury yields fell sharply and eased their grip on the stock market Thursday, helping fuel the monster rally that broke out after a report of cooler-than-expected inflation data. The rise in yields this year has choked off stock market gains and weighed on technology and growth stocks in particular. In the futures market, traders were betting Thursday that the Fed would raise its fed funds futures rate to 4.88% before stopping next spring. But now there are signs the strong dollar may not be such a drag. ...The strong dollar has been a headwind for earnings, and it will probably become a tail wind.

☆ Dollar catches breath while investors await midterms; cryptos skittish
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The greenback has been under downward pressure from bets on the Federal Reserve easing back on interest rate rises and on China reopening and driving growth. It touched multi-week lows against the euro, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar overnight, then edged off those levels during the Asia session. Some analysts view likely Congressional gridlock as a slight negative for the dollar if it limits fiscal spending. MORE TO DOLooming on Thursday is U.S. inflation data. The New Zealand dollar wobbled 0.3% lower to $0.5942.

☆ Lender PCF to withdraw from UK market after rescue fails
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Sinchita Mitra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Shares in PCF fell by around 62% to 0.4 pence in early trade following the news on Wednesday, six weeks after Castle Trust Capital withdrew its intention to make an offer for PCF. "This has been a very difficult strategic decision for the board to make given the consequences for the business, colleagues, customers, intermediaries and shareholders," Chief Executive of PCF Bank, Garry Stran, said in a statement. To cancel the AIM listing, it must consult investors. PCF, which has a market value just under 4 million pounds ($4.6 million), said it will continue to explore strategic transactions with interested third parties and it retained the support of Somers Limited, its biggest shareholder with a 73.24% stake. Reporting by Sinchita Mitra in Bengaluru; editing by Uttaresh.V and Sinead Cruise and Barbara LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Ireland sells 5% of AIB for 397 million euros
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

DUBLIN, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Ireland sold 5% of Allied Irish Banks (AIB) (AIBG.I) to institutional investors for 396.6 million euros ($396.24 million), the finance ministry said on Tuesday, part of a drive to sell down bank stakes acquired during the financial crisis. The state's stake stood at 71% at the start of the year. Ireland pumped 64 billion euros ($64.2 billion), or almost 40% of its then annual economic output, into the country's banks just over a decade ago following a huge property crash. It sold the last of its shares in Bank of Ireland (BIRG.I) in September. ($1 = 1.0009 euros)Writing by Conor Humphries; Editing by Andrew HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Ireland to sell 8% of its majority stake in AIB in one go
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

DUBLIN, Nov 7 (Reuters) - The Irish government received more than enough demand to cover the sale of 8% of its majority stake in Allied Irish Banks (AIB) (AIBG.I) in an accelerated book build on Monday, one of the joint bookrunners said. The state's stake stood at 71% at the start of the year. AIB shares closed up 1.96% at 3.20 euros on Monday. The last placing, conducted before euro zone banks began to benefit from European Central Bank interest rate hikes, was priced at 2.28 euros per share. Ireland pumped 64 billion euros ($64.2 billion), or almost 40% of its then annual economic output, into the country's banks just over a decade ago following a huge property crash.

From Nov. 15 this year, the bank will join other UK retail banks in limiting customer transfers to cryptocurrency exchanges. Santander customers will face limits of 1,000 pounds ($1,123) per transaction and 3,000 pounds in total in any rolling 30-day period, for transfers to crypto exchanges via mobile and online banking. Customers will still be able to receive payouts from crypto exchanges into their accounts. Santander has seen a "large increase" in UK customers becoming victims of cryptocurrency fraud in recent months, a notice on its website said. Faster Payments is the infrastructure which facilitates real-time bank transfers for most UK bank accounts.

☆ U.S. job growth seen smallest in nearly two years in October, unemployment rate up
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The labor market is basically OK, but it does seem to be slowing," said Guy Berger, principal economist at LinkedInin San Francisco. "The Fed is going to try to thread the needle where they slow down the labor market enough to put downward pressure on wages and inflation, without causing a recession." Still, the labor market remains tight, with 1.9 job openings per unemployed person at the end of September. Stripping out any distortions from the weather and calendar quirk, wage growth is cooling. "We believe we've seen wage growth peak," said Michelle Green, principal economist at Prevedere in Columbus, Ohio.

SINGAPORE/HONG KONG, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Chinese stocks soared and the yuan jumped on Friday, setting Hong Kong's Hang Seng on course for its best week in a decade, on hopes for twin relief in U.S.-China tension and COVID rules. The Hang Seng (.HSI) surged either side of the midday break and was last up 7%, and heading for a weekly gain of more than 10% for the first time since November 2011. The Shanghai Composite (.SSEC) rose 2.7% and was headed for a 5.6% weekly gain, the largest in more than two years. The Hang Seng Tech index (.HSTECH) rose 8%. The yuan rose about 0.9% to 7.2410 per dollar, despite broad dollar gains elsewhere.

The Hang Seng (.HSI) surged 5.3% and notched its biggest weekly gain in 11 years. Shares in online giants Alibaba (9988.HK) and JD.com (9618.HK) each rose more than 10% and the Hang Seng Tech index (.HSTECH) rose 7.5%. However the Hang Seng remains down 30% this year against a 24% fall in world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS). China stocks market capBUY THE RUMOURChanges to COVID policies have not been officially flagged. Yet markets have desperate reasons to rally after the Hang Seng hit a 13-year low last month in the wake of China's Communist Party Congress.

☆ Asia shares slip, Fed flags higher rates for longer
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investors were initially cheered that the Fed opened the door to a slowdown in the pace of hikes after raising interest rates 75 basis points to 3.75-4.0%, by noting that policy acted with a lag. But Chair Jerome Powell soured the mood by saying it was "very premature" to think about pausing and that the peak for rates would likely be higher than previously expected. Futures were now split on whether the Fed would move by 50 or 75 basis points in December, and nudged up the top for rates to 5.0-5.25% likely by May next year. "Higher for longer" was not what the equity markets wanted to hear and Wall Street fell sharply after Powell's comments. Early Thursday, S&P 500 futures were off another 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures fell 0.2%.

☆ Caution creeps into world stocks as Fed gets ready to hike big again
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Another aggressive rate hike to contain hot inflation when the Fed conclides its two-day meeting later is anticipated. For markets, the key question is whether the Fed will also signal it could slow additional rate hikes, in a so-called dovish pivot. European stock markets opened higher, but moved lower as the day wore on. U.S. stock futures, which provide an indication of how Wall Street will open, also lost some of their strength and were mixed , . The robust dollar retreated in October on speculation the Fed might indicate a slowdown in its aggressive tightening campaign.

☆ World stocks upbeat, even as Fed gets ready to hike big again
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

For markets, the key question is whether the Fed will also signal it could slow additional rate hikes, in a so-called dovish pivot. European stock markets opened mostly firmer (.STOXX), Asian shares outside Japan rallied to a two-week high (.MIAPJ0000PUS) and U.S. equity futures pointed to a firm open for Wall Street , . Cummins expects the Fed to step down to a 50 bps hike in December. It fell 0.75% against the Japanese yen to 147.16 yen amid fears of intervention from authorities and thin liquidity. The robust dollar has pulled back in October on speculation the Fed might indicate a slowdown in its aggressive tightening campaign.

☆ Asian shares rise, dollar dips ahead of Fed policy decision
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

European markets looked set to extend the cautious optimism, with the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.5%. However, traders are split on the size of the hike in December, with futures market pricing in a 44.5% probability of a 50-bps increase, according to CME's Fed tool. It fell 0.5% against the Japanese yen to 147.6 yen amid fears of intervention from authorities and thin liquidity. In commodities, oil climbed after industry data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude stockpiles, suggesting demand is holding up. U.S. crude oil futures rose 1.4% to $89.65 per barrel, while Brent crude futures was up 1.2% at $95.82.

☆ Asian shares waver, dollar dips ahead of Fed policy decision
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

However, traders are split on the size of the hike in December, with futures market pricing in a 44.5% probability of a 50-bps increase, according to CME's Fed tool. Cummins expects the Fed to step down to a 50 basis point rate hike in December. That sparked a reversal in Treasury yields and lifted market bets on interest rates to above 5% next year. In commodities, oil climbed after industry data showed a surprise drop in U.S. crude stockpiles, suggesting demand is holding up. U.S. crude oil futures rose 0.5% to $88.93 per barrel, while Brent crude futures was up 0.4% at $94.98.

☆ Michelle Girard and Priya Misra break down today's Fed policy meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNatWest's Girard and TD Securities' Misra break down what to expect from today's Fed policy meetingMichelle Girard, Head of U.S. at NatWest Markets, and Priya Misra, Global Head of Rates Strategy at TD Securities, join Worldwide Exchange to discuss their expectations for the Federal Reserve's November interest rate decision.

☆ Bain gives India’s banking ball a time check
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Bain Capital on Tuesday pocketed some $400 million from selling just under a third of the more than 4% stake it bought in Axis Bank (AXBK.NS) in 2017. Back then, the private equity firm and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIFI.NS) injected cash as the country’s third-largest non-state-controlled lender was grappling with a slew of bad loans. Axis now oozes confidence under ex-HDFC Life Insurance executive Amitabh Chaudhry, who joined as boss in 2019. Gross bad loans account for 2.5% of total assets, less than half the level when Bain bought in. With Bain currently sitting on 1.6 times its money, excluding dividends, it’s a good time to send some in its party home.

☆ Maersk recession pain could yet get more acute
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Moller Maersk (MAERSKb.CO) is experiencing the dark side of relief in the world’s recovering supply chains. They have now fallen below $4,000, and a recession could drive them down further. Falling freight rates and volumes could encourage Maersk’s clients, who have flexible contracts, to scale back on their shipping orders. The clients can then buy up freight contracts in the open market, which are cheaper than contracts signed months ago. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Charles Roe, director of mortgages for banking industry group UK Finance, told lawmakers that lenders were reintroducing mortgage products at lower prices. However, Ray Boulger, senior mortgage technical manager at broker John Charcol, said he was disappointed at the slow progress lenders were making. PRICE FALLS FORECASTAverage two-year and five-year fixed mortgage rates have fallen around 0.2 percentage points from their recent peak, but still remain above 6%, Moneyfacts data shows. "It was 2008 the last time mortgage rates were at 6%, there's a whole cadre of people who have never experienced this...and are very worried," said Joanna Elson, Chief Executive, The Money Advice Trust. The lender has started to reduce fixed mortgage rates for existing customers, while rates for new customers were under review, he added.

☆ Geely’s pricey cars can hope for some premium spin
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

HONG KONG, Nov 1 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Geely Automobile (0175.HK) is hiving off its young electric vehicle brand, Zeekr. The Hong Kong-listed group’s chairman and founder Li Shufu has a lot riding on how the deal is positioned as the valuations of its homegrown rivals crash. Parent Zhejiang Geely’s extensive experience building battery-powered models and the Volvo Car (VOLCARb.ST) owner’s track record overseas suggests the upstart can scale rapidly. So far so good: Zeekr, which launched only last year, sold nearly 40,000 premium cars in the first nine months. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Ocado’s South Korean deal is valuation rocket fuel
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Shares in the 5.4 billion pound ($6.2 billion) online grocer surged almost 40% on Tuesday after it inked a new deal with South Korea’s Lotte Shopping (023530.KS). The warehouses could bring in about 2.1 billion pounds of annual sales when operating at full capacity, Numis analysts reckon. That implies about 100 million pounds of annual revenue, equivalent to 4% of sales in the last financial year. Most significantly, it shows that Steiner’s strategy of building warehouses for supermarkets worldwide may have legs. Steiner’s South Korean deal offers his company some valuation rocket fuel.

☆ Dollar, bond yields rise ahead of pivotal rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Combined with news that Italy's economy grew far more strongly than expected in the third quarter, euro zone bond yields moved higher EUR/GVD although the euro succumbed to another bout of U.S. dollar strength. /FRX"A lot of data is coming out this week and lot of central banks are meeting," said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes. Palm oil futures rose nearly 5%. In the oil markets, Brent crude futures fell 1% to $94.65 a barrel, while spot gold was fractionally lower at $1,637 an ounce in the precious metals markets. Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Kirsten Donovan and Angus MacSwanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stocks splutter, euro falls ahead of euro zone inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

,Euro zone October inflation numbers due shortly are seen hitting a fresh record of 10.2% year on year, in what will make for more uncomfortable reading for the European Central Bank, which is targeting 2% price growth. Combined with news that Italy's economy grew far more strongly than expected in the third quarter, euro zone bond yields moved higher EUR/GVD although the euro succumbed to another bout of U.S. dollar strength. /FRX"A lot of data is coming out this week and lot of central banks are meeting," said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes. We are now waiting for euro zone GDP and CPI. S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, while Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark for the euro area, was up 5.5 basis points (bps) to 2.143%.

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