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☆ Resetting student loans brings Econ 101 lessons
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A U.S. Supreme Court ruling against President Joe Biden’s student loan forbearance erases as much as $20,000 in potential relief for graduates. Combined with the resumption of debt payments, borrowers will be feeling the pinch in their wallets and their confidence. The court said on Friday that a plan to wipe out swathes of student loans was unconstitutional, ending hopes of an easier financial future for some 43 million borrowers. If the Supreme Court had supported the relief, it also risked stoking inflation just as it slides to a healthier level. The proposal aimed to relieve $10,000 of student loans for individuals earning less than $125,000 annually, and an additional $10,000 for eligible borrowers who received Pell Grant subsidies.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, Mark Zandi, Taco, Pell Grant, Donald Trump, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Supreme, White, Census Bureau, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Taco Bell, Yum Brands, Biden, Democratic, Congressional, Office, Former U.S, Thomson

☆ Breakingviews: Student-loan ruling offers Econ 101 crash course
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A U.S. Supreme Court ruling against President Joe Biden’s student loan forbearance erases as much as $20,000 in potential relief for graduates. Combined with the resumption of debt payments, borrowers will be feeling the pinch in their wallets and their confidence. Had Biden’s policy covered $10,000 of their debt, the typical monthly payment would have shrunk by about a quarter. If the Supreme Court had supported the relief, it also risked stoking inflation just as it slides to a healthier level. CONTEXT NEWSThe U.S. Supreme Court on June 30 ruled 6-3 against President Joe Biden’s plan to forgive student loan debt for some 43 million borrowers.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, Mark Zandi, Taco, Pell Grant, Donald Trump, Jeffrey Goldfarb, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Supreme, White, Census Bureau, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Taco Bell, Yum Brands, Biden, Twitter, Democratic, Congressional, Office, Former U.S, Thomson

☆ American companies are draining their cash at the dumbest possible time
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —Companies are sitting on a lot less cash than they were last year, largely because they’re spending it on share buybacks and corporate dividends. What’s happening: A new report from Moody’s Investors Service finds that nonfinancial companies’ corporate cash declined 12% last year to $2 trillion. But debt was flat year over year, meaning that companies didn’t use much of their cash reserves to pay down outstanding loans. Now that it’s more expensive to borrow, companies in the US should reconsider the amount of money they’re spending on buybacks, he added. Preventing companies from repurchasing their own shares, they argue, would free corporate cash to invest in growth and raise wages instead.

Persons: Emile El Nems, ”, Ben Lofthouse, Janus Henderson, ” El Nems, Joe Biden, buybacks, “, Brian Moynihan, Moynihan, CNN’s Poppy Harlow, Nathaniel Meyersohn, That’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN — Companies, Moody’s Investors Service, Moody’s, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Corporations, ”, CNN, Commerce Department, UBS Locations: New York, buybacks

☆ Inflation hurts. But White House economists find that it’s even worse in every other G7 nation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN Business —The United States is recovering faster than its peers from the historic bout of inflation squeezing families and souring the mood of the nation, according to a new analysis from White House economists. To address that, the White House economists built an apples-to-apples inflation metric that makes certain adjustments to how shelter costs factor into overall inflation. But we are very heartened and happy to see the trend going where it is,” a CEA official told CNN in a phone interview. And here’s the thing about inflation: It is undeniably down in the United States.”Two independent economists that CNN shared the CEA report with support the logic powering the analysis. That is absolutely a painful thing,” the CEA official said.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, “, “ I’m, Mark Zandi, Republican John McCain, Zandi, Joe Brusuelas, ” Brusuelas, Joe Biden, Ronald Reagan, Biden, Brian Moynihan, CNN’s Poppy Harlow, George W, Bush, Piper Sandler, Trump, ” Piper Sandler Organizations: New York CNN Business —, White House, of Economic Advisers, CNN, CEA, White, Republican, RSM, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Federal, Gallup Locations: United States, Ukraine, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, America, Europe, Wall, Middle America

☆ Fed Chair Powell is heading to Capitol Hill. Here’s what to expect
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Washington, DC CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before congressional lawmakers this week, starting Wednesday morning with the House Financial Services Committee — just one week after the central bank paused its most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in decades. Indeed, just days after the decision, two Fed officials called for more increases, citing persistent inflationary pressures. Powell will try to quell Democrats’ concerns over the Fed inducing more job losses than necessary and reassure Republicans that the central bank remains committed to fighting inflation. Financial markets see a roughly 77% chance the Fed will hike rates by another quarter point in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The Fed has already published Powell’s semiannual report to Congress, which includes mostly what Powell and the post-meeting statement communicated earlier this month.

Persons: Jerome Powell, “ Powell’s, ”, José Torres, “ Powell, Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, Biden, Brendan Boyle, Powell, Mike Pence, Madhavi Bokil Organizations: DC CNN — Federal, House Financial, Fed, Interactive Brokers, Richmond Fed, ”, Pennsylvania Democrat, Republicans, US, Moody’s Investors, Moody’s Investors Service Locations: Washington, Pennsylvania

☆ U.S. National Debt Tops $32 Trillion for First Time
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Alan Rappeport | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

But the debt is on track to top $50 trillion by the end of the decade even after newly passed spending cuts are taken into account. Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said during the standoff in May that spending cuts proposed by lawmakers failed to address the costs of social safety net programs. While avoiding a default would prevent an immediate crisis, he said, the ballooning debt is a persistent problem that needs to be addressed. A failure to pass and reconcile House and Senate bills by Oct. 1 could lead to a government shutdown. At the same time, House Republicans started considering a new round of tax cuts this week.

Persons: Mark Zandi, Mr, Zandi, Biden, Kevin McCarthy Organizations: Congressional, Republican majority’s, Republicans, Federal

☆ Retailers battle for uncertain back-to-school demand after ‘volatile’ quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Katherine Masters | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Shopping trolley is seen in front of Walmart logo in this illustration, July 24, 2022. U.S. shoppers' spending in the summer ahead of the college and K-12 school year has grown steadily since 2015, according to the National Retail Federation, a trade group. The chain is stocking Adidas' Samba and Gazelle sneakers ahead of the new school year, it said. The challenge for retailers is predicting whether parents will buy less clothing and sneakers when the cost of necessities - such as pencils, notebooks and laptops - strains many households. Retailers face a "volatile time," said Jessica Ramirez, a senior research analyst at Jane Hali & Associates.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Locker, Spencer, hasn't, Ralph Lauren, Nordstrom, Doug McMillon, John David Rainey, Jessica Ramirez, Jane Hali, Moody’s, Moody's, Maxx, Martin Waters, Fran Horowitz, Jennifer Foyle, Abercrombie’s Hollister, URBN, Katherine Masters, Siddharth Cavale, James Davey, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, National Retail Federation, Ulta, Adidas, U.S . Commerce Department, Associates, Target, Moody's Victoria’s, Abercrombie & Fitch, Urban Outfitters, Abercrombie, Fitch, Free People, Thomson Locations: Britain, U.S, North America, New York, Bentonville , Arkansas, London

June 5 (Reuters) - Cryptocurrencies and shares in crypto and blockchain-related companies tumbled on Monday after the U.S. securities regulator sued crypto exchange Binance, another blow to the industry. The SEC crackdown has prompted some crypto companies to increase compliance, spike products, and expand overseas, moves that some marketwatchers said would likely be accelerated by this latest action against the world's largest crypto exchange. In April, the SEC charged crypto exchange Bittrex Inc with operating an unregistered securities exchange, broker and clearing agency, and settled with Kraken in February for $30 million over the exchange's U.S. crypto staking service. Shares of Coinbase (COIN.O) were down 9.1% on the news of the SEC's charges against Binance. Both Coinbase and crypto exchange Gemini launched international exchanges for crypto derivatives in May.

Persons: Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Binance's cryptocurrency, Gary Gensler, marketwatchers, John Reed Stark, Kraken, Bittrex, James Angel, Gemini, Rajeev Bamra, Sinéad Carew, John McCrank, Manya Saini, Hannah Lang, Michelle Price, Leslie Adler, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Reuters, SEC, Washington , D.C, Internet, Coinbase Global Inc, Georgetown University, Binance, Inc, Marathon, Mining, Moody’s Investors Service, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, New York, Bengaluru, Washington

☆ The case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Many CEOs, investors and economists had penciled in 2023 as the year when a recession would hit the American economy. But the case for a 2023 US recession is crumbling for a simple reason: America’s jobs market is way too strong. Zandi is growing more confident that 2023 won’t be the year when a downturn will begin. “We’re running out of time for a 2023 recession,” Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, told CNN. Friday’s jobs report did offer some conflicting signals, especially in the household survey, which economists put less weight on because it tends to be noisier.

Persons: Mark Zandi, won’t, ” Zandi, “, Justin Wolfers, “ We’ve, payrolls, Wolfers, They’ve, ” Wolfers, ” Macy’s, Zandi, Joe Brusuelas, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Moody’s, CNN, University of Michigan, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bank of America, Challenger, RSM Locations: New York, ”

☆ With these many jobs, do we no longer have to worry about a recession?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( Chris Isidore | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But for every recession alarm bell, the continued strength in the labor market seems to be an answer to those worries. “I think even in a recession environment, we’re going to have a relatively strong job market. “It’s still possible that the case of avoiding a recession is, in my view, more likely than that of having a recession. Jobs market still hot, but coolingThat’s not to say that the jobs market hasn’t slowed down. Powell said he’s not particularly worried about the cooling of the labor market over the last year.

Persons: That’s, ”, Jamie Cox, they’re, Mark Zandi, “, I’ve, we’ve, Dave Gilbertson, Jerome Powell, “ We’ve, ” Powell, It’s, Julia Pollock, Powell, he’s, —, ZipRecruiter’s Pollock, – CNN’s Bryan Mena Organizations: New, New York CNN, Labor Department, Costco, Federal Reserve, Harris Financial Group, Moody’s Analytics, Target, Labor Locations: New York

"The risk of a downgrade is exacerbated every time Congress flirts with the debt ceiling," said Calvin Norris, Portfolio Manager & US Rates Strategist at Aegon Asset Management, who sees another downgrade as still a risk. Economic damage from the 2011 and 2013 debt ceiling battles had a chilling impact. Rating agency Fitch and other smaller agencies recently placed the U.S. credit rating under review. Reuters GraphicsCASCADE EFFECTInvestors use credit ratings as one of the metrics to assess the risk profiles of governments and companies. In the 2013 debt ceiling crisis the legislative standoff did not cause a rating downgrade, although Fitch placed its rating under review.

Persons: Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, Leah Millis, Calvin Norris, Wendy Edelberg, Edelberg, Fitch, William Foster, ”, Andy Sparks, Olivier d'Assier, Peter Crane, MSCI's Sparks, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Nick Zieminski Organizations: U.S, White, REUTERS, Senate, Republicans, Aegon Asset Management, AAA, Government, Office, The, Brookings Institution, Moody's, Moody’s Investors Service, Applied Research, Crane, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, Washington, APAC, Qontigo

☆ Debt ceiling deal won’t have much impact on the US economy, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The US economy is the world’s largest, so the relatively modest effects on growth could be good news for investors who feared the debt ceiling crisis could have posed a greater and more widespread drag. Here’s what’s in the proposed deal and how it would show up in the broader economy. What’s in the debt ceiling dealThe deal would suspend the federal government’s $31.4 trillion debt limit through January 2025. The debt deal and GDPEconomists at Goldman Sachs expect the deal to reduce federal spending by as much as 0.2% of gross domestic product per year over the two years of the deal, compared with their baseline estimate. “Getting this uncertainty out of the way for markets and decision makers has a real impact,” said Mike Skordeles, head of US economics at Truist Advisory Services.

Persons: Joe Biden, Mark Zandi, Biden, Goldman Sachs, ” Goldman Sachs, Ian Shepherdson, Gregory Daco, ”, Mike Skordeles, Zandi, ” Michael Reynolds Organizations: DC CNN, House Republicans, Moody’s, CNN, Internal Revenue Service, Congressional, Pantheon, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Truist Advisory Services, Investment, “ Locations: Washington, West Virginia

☆ The debt ceiling drama may feel like it’s over, but it may have only just begun
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

There could be an even more dramatic second act to the debt ceiling drama. This time around, one of the top credit rating agencies, Fitch, has already placed US debt on rating watch negative. As of Wednesday, the other two major sovereign debt credit rating agencies, S&P and Moody’s, have not placed US debt under review. If Fitch downgrades US debt, it could cause yields on Treasury notes to spike, underscoring the increased risks associated with holding US debt. However, the opposite occurred after S&P downgraded US debt in 2011 — investors shrugged it off and bought more bonds, sending yields lower.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Biden, It’s, Fitch, McCarthy, Chip Somodevilla, Michael Reynolds, ”, George Catrambone Organizations: New, New York CNN, Senate, AAA, US Treasury, U.S . Department of Treasury, Treasury Department, DWS, Treasury Locations: New York, States, US, Washington ,, Americas

☆ This is the calamity Washington is trying to avoid with a debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

New York CNN —At long last, the White House and House Republicans have reached a tentative agreement to raise the debt ceiling. Every day that passes without a bill to raise the debt ceiling, the probability of the United States reaching the critical date that it can no longer meet its financial obligations steadily grows. Absent a bill passed by Congress and signed by Biden, Treasury will likely do everything in its power to avoid a debt default. In contrast to debt payments, government payments like Social Security or federal worker salaries aren’t considered debt instruments, so they are less likely to come into play when the agencies rate the United States’ debt. Though prioritizing debt payments might stave off an even-greater economic collapse, the United States may not emerge unscathed.

☆ From your 401(k) to bonds, here’s how to protect your financial well-being as debt default worries grow
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Ramishah Maruf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The White House and House GOP negotiators are rushing to finalize a deal to raise the country’s debt limit. With that X-date only about one week away, there’s still no deal to raise the debt ceiling – putting Americans’ finances in danger. If you invest in bonds, pay attention to when your Treasury bills are maturing. Stick with high-quality investmentsSteer clear of corporate junk bonds or emerging market bonds, CNN has previously reported. Federal government contractors could also see a lag in payments, which could affect their ability to compensate their workers, CNN previously reported.

☆ Credit ratings agencies like Moody's decide the US credit rating. Here's what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Credit rating agencies are once again in the spotlight amid the ongoing high-stakes debt ceiling negotiations in Washington. What is the purpose of credit rating agencies? Put simply, credit rating agencies provide their opinions and issue a score evaluating the likelihood that a borrower will repay its debt. Rating agencies first rose to prominence over a century ago, but today, the three major agencies dominate the market. Bonsall has studied the effectiveness of credit rating agencies and their possible conflicts of interest.

☆ Debt ceiling crisis: How a US default would ricochet around the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

But if it does, it could make the 2008 global financial crisis feel like a walk in the park. The consequences are frightful.”The belief that America’s government will pay its creditors on time underpins the smooth functioning of the global financial system. During the 2011 standoff over raising the US debt ceiling, the S&P 500 index of leading US shares plunged more than 15%. “It’s unclear in a Treasury default crisis whether the Fed could do enough even with the types of efforts it deployed in March 2020,” Obstfeld said. “A default would be a message to investors all around the world of eroding confidence in America,” he added.

☆ It’s Not Just the Debt Ceiling
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

These include:The potential for economic drag from the more restrictive fiscal policy that House Republicans are demanding from President Biden as a prerequisite for an increase in the debt ceiling. Oddly, the debt ceiling crisis provided temporary relief for many of the nation’s banks, economists for Moody’s Investor Service found in a recent study. “The debt ceiling impasse has been a tailwind for the banks,” Jill Cetina, associate managing director for Moody’s, said in an interview. But once the debt ceiling is lifted and the Treasury begins to raise money by selling large quantities of bonds, those purchases by investors in the open market will drain money from banks. “This may not be what you would expect, but the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis will be a headwind for banks,” she said.

☆ The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge just heated up — and that could mean another rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The closely watched core PCE index — where volatile components of food and energy are excluded — unexpectedly ticked up: The Fed’s go-to gauge was up 4.7% for the year. In March, the core PCE gauge grew by 4.6%. Economists had forecast that core PCE would hold steady at 4.6%, according to Refinitiv. Consumer spending jumped 0.8% in April from March, double what economists had expected. Excluding the effects of inflation, real consumer spending increased 0.5%, reflecting a boost seen from new car purchases, according to the report.

☆ Analysis: Why we may need a stock market plunge to solve the debt ceiling crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

They know how it ends: with politicians waiting until the last minute before giving in and finally raising the debt ceiling before disaster strikes. On Friday, it looked like the White House and Republicans were getting closer to a deal on the debt ceiling before talks unexpectedly broke down. In 2011, the most serious near-default in American history, markets experienced volatility in the days and weeks before Washington reached a last-minute deal to raise the debt ceiling. None of this is to say markets are completely ignoring the debt ceiling drama today. The debt ceiling is a manufactured crisis that officials could have dealt with months ago.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi on state of U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Moody's Analytics' Mark Zandi on state of U.S. economyMark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if Zandi has rethought his position on what the Federal Reserve should do, the mixed economic data the economy has recently shown and much more.

☆ Fed should be done with rate hikes as inflation begins to slow, says Moody's Mark Zandi
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed should be done with rate hikes as inflation begins to slow, says Moody's Mark ZandiMark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if Zandi has rethought his position on what the Federal Reserve should do, the mixed economic data the economy has recently shown and much more.

☆ US Chamber of Commerce argues invoking 14th Amendment would be as ‘economically calamitous’ as a default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and other progressives to urge the White House to use the 14th Amendment to avoid a disastrous default. Bradley argued that invoking the 14th Amendment would send Treasury rates spiking, lifting the cost of borrowing for families and businesses. Experts have warned that invoking the 14th Amendment would likely spark a constitutional crisis and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently cast doubt on the idea. US markets turned negative on Friday on news that debt ceiling negotiations between the White House and House Republicans have hit a snag. “If the rhetoric is dark next week, markets will start to react.

☆ How tornadoes, crypto and mudslides pushed up the debt default deadline
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

While the Treasury Department hasn’t explicitly given a reason for its tax revenue deficiency, experts have said two main factors may have caused a shortfall. Pugliese said that last year, capital gains taxes paid to the government were “unusually strong” due to a market boom. That led to really strong capital gains tax revenue increases,” he said. Tornadoes, winter storms and mudslides pushed deadlines for millions of taxpayersAnother factor that may have lowered the federal government’s tax income this year: unexpected natural disasters. California’s payments might have had an outsized effect on the federal government’s tax revenue shortage, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

☆ Debt conundrum gives Italy weak hand in EU talks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

After inflation hit 40-year highs in the West last year, global rate-setters, including the European Central Bank, launched a dramatic series of interest rate hikes. Unless there is a sudden series of interest rate cuts, the cost of servicing Italy’s debt could stay well above 4% of GDP for years. To fight that, Meloni’s government will have to shrink the public deficit and bring Italy back to the healthy pre-pandemic habit of keeping a primary budgetary surplus excluding debt interest payments. As long as Italy’s debt is not spiralling out of control, markets won’t worry too much. Yet even if Meloni chooses a milder approach, Italy’s unresolved debt challenge risks giving her a weak negotiating hand in Brussels.

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