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Gold steady as hopes of Fed slowdown counter firmer dollar
  + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Gold prices were steady on Monday, having risen 1.8% in the previous session, as hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt a less aggressive policy stance later in the year countered pressure from a firmer dollar. The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark overnight interest rate by 75 basis points next month, as it battles high inflation. Although gold is considered a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the asset, which yields nothing. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.3% to 928.10 tons on Friday. Spot silver fell 0.5% to $19.30 per ounce, platinum rose 0.4% to $935.38 and palladium inched 0.1% higher to $2,021.31.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSan Francisco Fed's Daly: Next Fed hikes should be smaller than 75 BPSCNBC's Steve Liesman joins the 'Halftime Report' to discuss San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's latest statement on rate hikes. The investment committee weighs in.
Investors on Friday pulled down expectations the Federal Reserve will issue another rate hike of 75 basis points in December and beyond. The probability of another jumbo-sized rate hike at the end of the year fell to 45% from 75% on Thursday. The moves were sparked after a report from the Wall Street Journal and comments by Fed official Mary Daly. The probability of a rate increase of 50 basis points in December, meanwhile, rose to 51.8% from 24.2% on Thursday. Looking ahead into the first meeting of 2023, the odds of a rate hike of 75 basis points fell to 13.7% from 38.2% a day earlier.
The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. Yet even as markets point to another large increase at the final policy meeting of the year in December, sentiment is building within the Fed to take a breather. Even with the existing rate outlook, it was a "closer call than normal" whether recession can be avoided. Inflation, officials acknowledge, has become broader and more persistent than anticipated, and may be slow to decline. Recent staff estimates, recounted in the minutes of the last Fed meeting, indicated the economy may be much "tighter" than anticipated as high demand strains against potential output that may be more limited than thought.
Analysts widely expect the Fed to hike rates by 75 basis points for a fourth straight meeting in November. For the week, the S&P 500 climbed 4.74%, the Dow gained 4.89% and the Nasdaq rose 5.22%. Schlumberger (SLB.N) shot up 10.33% to help to lift the S&P 500 energy sector (.SPNY) 2.76% after reporting a quarterly profit above expectations. Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.59-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.03-to-1 ratio favored advancers. The S&P 500 posted 9 new 52-week highs and 32 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 60 new highs and 322 new lows.
The three major averages closed higher Friday, with the S & P 500 adding 2.37% to close at 3,752.75. Stovall said the S & P 500 had six positive moves of 1% or more in the last 17 trading days, as of Friday. Earnings, earnings, earnings About 150 S & P 500 companies report earnings in the coming week. Technically speaking Scott Redler, partner with T3Live.com, said he is watching a formation in the S & P 500 that could be positive. His first target for the S & P 500 is 3,800.
Tobias Adrian, the International Monetary Fund's monetary and capital markets director,wrote on Tuesday that financial stability risks have risen "substantially." Fed officials have lifted the federal funds rate from near-zero levels in March to the current range of between 3.00% and 3.25%. Financial markets expect the Fed to raise the rate again by three-quarters of a percentage point at its next policy meeting in November. More rate rises are very likely after that, with central bankers penciling in a 4.6% federal funds rate by some point in 2023. Making financial conditions more restrictive is key to how monetary policy operates.
Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, speaks during a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., US, on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022. Federal Reserve officials this week gave their clearest signal yet that they're willing to tolerate a recession as the necessary trade-off for regaining control of inflation. That's monetary policy in this era of rapid inflation, swooning economic growth and heightened fears over what could go wrong. "But I would argue that they're still being overly optimistic at which the inflation rate is going to decelerate on its own." "Right now, the pain that I hear, the suffering that people are telling me what they're going through, is on the inflation side," she said during a talk at the Council on Foreign Relations.
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Morning Bid: Dysfunction and intervention
  + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Amid all the chaos in British bond markets, the forced intervention by the Bank of England to buy gilts has given some investors a crumb of comfort about the limits of central bank tightening. Cold comfort maybe, but enough to drag bond yields back and lift stocks briefly around the world. While 30-year gilt yields steadied just below 4% on Thursday after their 100bp swoon the previous day, the pound was sliding again and UK midcap stocks dropped. read moreEasing inflation in Spain was better news read more . Market leader Inditex (ITX.MC), the owner of Zara, slipped 2.2%, while the wider STOXX retailers index <.SXRP> slid 4.3%.
Fed's Daly: do not want to tip economy into downturn
  + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
Sept 27 (Reuters) - San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Tuesday that the U.S. central bank is "resolute" about bringing down high inflation but also wants to do so "as gently as possible" so as not to drive the economy into a downturn. It is important, Daly said at a symposium held jointly with the Monetary Authority of Singapore, "to navigate through this high inflation environment as carefully as we can, so that we don't leave longer term damage to our labor market." Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Christian SchmollingerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Morning Bid: Gimme Shelter
  + stars: | 2022-09-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. read moreBut with the pound falling anew against the dollar on the credit rating and IMF warnings, the real problem is in UK government bonds, or gilts. read moreWith Wall Street stocks hitting a new low for the year on Tuesday, global shares sank to two-year lows on Wednesday. Fed chairman Jerome Powell and a host of other Fed speakers are in the diary again for later on Wednesday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Morning Bid: Eye of the storm
  + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton TPX IMAGES OF THE DAYA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. As Hurricane Ian raged and set its sights on Cuba and Florida, a global financial storm in bond and currency markets calmed moderately - though likely only temporarily. read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterFor all its potential destruction, Ian doesn't yet appear on the world markets radar. UK debt auctions this week will be watched very closely. But this may be the eye of the storm.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on September 06, 2022 in New York City. U.S. equity futures were little changed Sunday evening after surging interest rates and foreign currency turmoil pushed the major averages to near their lows of the year. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were each lower by 0.1%. The broad-market S&P 500 temporarily broke below its June closing low and ended down 1.7%. On Friday, Goldman Sachs slashed its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 3,600 from 4,300.
The S & P 500, Dow and Nasdaq were all down sharply for the week. The S & P was down 4.6%, ending the week at 3,693. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard , St. Louis Fed President James Bullard , San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman are among the speakers. Other global central banks joined the Fed in raising rates, and interest rates around the world rose in tandem. If those levels break, the S & P could touch 3,385 before the selling is over, he said.
The message: They are going to keep hiking rates until there are consistent signs inflation is declining toward the 2% target. On Wednesday, it was St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who said on " Squawk Box " he wanted rates to get to 3.75%-4% this year. "The better bet is that it will take a while for inflation to come back," Bullard told our Steve Liesman. "I think we'll probably have to be higher for longer in order to get the evidence" that inflation is indeed moderating. Starbucks showing consumer strength If you're looking for signs that the consumer is pulling back, you won't see it at Starbucks.
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