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☆ Euro zone business growth at 9-month high
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Buoyant services growth meant the recovery in euro zone business activity gathered steam this month, expanding much faster than thought, according to a survey providing the latest evidence the currency union could escape a recession. S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, climbed to 52.3 in February from January's 50.3, data showed on Tuesday. "Business activity across the euro zone grew much faster than expected in February, with growth hitting a nine-month high thanks to resurgent service sector activity," said Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global. The new business index rose to 50.6 from 48.9. The business expectations index rose to a nine-month high of 61.5, from 61.2 in January.

View of the Yarra River flowing through Melbourne city centre in Australia. Asia-Pacific markets are set to fall on Tuesday as investors await regional private surveys for factory activity. The PMI index encompasses services and manufacturing, and is seen as a reliable gauge of economic health. Reserve Bank of Australia will release minutes from its February policy meeting, when it hiked interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.35%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 0.16% and the Topix was marginally lower ahead of the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing PMI.

☆ U.S. business activity rebounds to eight-month high in February- S&P Global survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February, reaching its highest level in eight months, according to a survey on Tuesday, which also showed inflation subsiding. S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 50.2 this month from a final reading of 46.8 in January. The services sector accounted for the rise in business activity, while manufacturing remained weak. The survey's flash manufacturing PMI rose to 47.8 from 46.9 in January. The survey's flash services sector PMI increased to 50.5 from 46.8 in January.

☆ UK business activity unexpectedly rebounds in February -flash PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Much better than anticipated PMI data for February indicate encouraging resilience of the economy," said S&P Global Chief Business Economist Chris Williamson. "While many companies continue to report tough operating conditions, especially in the manufacturing sector, the broader business mood has been buoyed by signs of inflation peaking, supply chains improving and recession risks easing." Williamson added that the survey data boosted the likelihood of a BoE rate hike next month, something which most economists polled by Reuters already expect. The PMI for the services sector rose to 53.3 in February from January's 48.7, the highest reading since June last year. Factory activity continued to contract but at a much reduced pace, with the manufacturing PMI increasing to 49.2 from 47.0, close to 50, the no-change mark.

☆ China's economy will grow 5% this year, Fitch Ratings says in upgraded forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

China's economy will expand by 5% in 2023, Fitch Ratings said in a revised forecast on Wednesday – an improved outlook from its previous 4.1% growth prediction made in December. Fitch also pointed to China's latest purchasing managers' index (PMI) for manufacturing and services, a measure of business activity, that indicated further growth. China's official manufacturing PMI reading rose to 50.1 in January from a previous reading of 47, and its services PMI rose to 54.4, the highest level since June 2022. A value above 50 indicates expansion of economic activity; a reading below 50 points to a contraction. The economists also noted China's gross domestic product reading in December was better than Fitch had expected.

☆ Awful Stock Market Analysts, Wall Street Economists Are Costing Investors Money
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

One type of data point to be wary of involves vehicles for confirmation, which use old data to confirm what an analyst already believes. The index is also revamped after every recession — given new weights and components so the new index perfectly signals the recession that just happened. Let's assume the ISM signals a turning point in the business cycle when it runs below 50 for three consecutive months. In a bull market, when rising stocks lift all boats, these analysts are still making money while arguing the downside just "hasn't happened yet." No single data point is a substitute for good judgment, which is the best leading indicator of all.

☆ Boom in January jobs shows employers fear worker shortage more than recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

January's super strong jobs report underscores that employers are more worried about not having enough workers than they are about a slowing economy. But Zandi notes that of all the components of the jobs report, the one that matters most to the Fed is average hourly wages, and they have been coming down. It's just really strong," said Tom Simons, money market economist at Jefferies. The strong report means interest rates will continue to rise, and the Federal Reserve will raise benchmark overnight lending rates by another quarter point in March. ISM Services data Friday reinforced some of the strength in the jobs report.

☆ U.S. job openings increase to five-month high as labor market stays tight
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

There were 1.9 job openings for every unemployed person in December, the Labor Department's monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report, showed on Wednesday. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, increased by 572,000 to a five-month high of 11.0 million on the last day of December. Others speculated that job openings had been overstated because of difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations. "A jump in job openings in the retail sector is also at odds with a lower pace of seasonal hiring around the holidays." The job openings rate up shot to 6.7% from 6.4% in November.

☆ Stocks dip, dollar falls as Fed decision looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Markets have been pricing in the possibility of a rate cut by the Fed in the back half of the year. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsOn Wall Street, U.S. stocks fell in early trading ahead of the Fed announcement, with each of the 11 major S&P sectors lower, led by a 1.53% decline in energy shares. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.17% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.08%. The dollar started February on a lower note, continuing its weakening trajectory of the previous four months. The dollar index fell 0.421%, while the euro was up 0.52% against the U.S. currency at $1.0918.

In France, the bloc's second-biggest economy, factory activity returned to growth albeit not as strongly as initially forecast. In Asia, factory activity contracted in January as the boost from China's COVID reopening had yet to take full effect. China's factory activity shrank more slowly in January after Beijing lifted tough COVID curbs late last year, a private sector survey showed. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing (PMI) nudged up to 49.2 in January from 49.0 in December, staying below the 50 mark for a sixth straight month. Factory activity expanded in January in Indonesia and the Philippines but shrank in Malaysia and Taiwan, PMI surveys showed.

☆ Wednesday, Feb. 1, 2023: Cramer says consider buying these stocks today
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Joshua Natoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWednesday, Feb. 1, 2023: Cramer says consider buying these stocks todayJim Cramer and Jeff Marks examine what Jim is calling a 'disturbing' U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI report and why it may sound an alarm before Wednesday's FOMC decision. Jim shares why he's going to keep holding a Club stock despite a post-earnings surge. He also gives members a list of three stocks he says are good buys today.

☆ China PMI: economic activity expands for the first time in months as Covid 'exit wave' ends
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Hong Kong CNN —Economic activity in China has expanded for the first time in four months as disruptions caused by the abrupt end of its zero-Covid policy appears to be fading. The official non-manufacturing PMI, which tracks activity in the services and construction sectors, surged to 54.4 in January from 41.6 in December, also marking its first expansion in four months. This is a sign that China’s Covid “exit wave” is coming to an end, said analysts from Nomura in a research report. The official PMI survey mainly covers larger businesses and state-owned companies. Zhu Wanchang/VCG/Getty ImagesChina scrapped most of its pandemic restrictions in early December, effectively ending its three-year-long zero-Covid policy.

☆ China economic activity swings back to growth in January - official PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Joe Cash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, Jan 31 (Reuters) - China's economic activity swung back to growth in January, official data showed on Tuesday, after a wave of COVID-19 infection passed through the country faster than expected following abandonment of pandemic controls. The official purchasing managers' index (PMI), which measures manufacturing activity, rose to 50.1 from 47.0 in December, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Tuesday. Non-manufacturing activity, which includes provision of services, the construction industry and catering, for example, surged to 54.4, up from 41.6 in December. The official composite PMI, which combines manufacturing and services, rose to 52.9 from 42.6 in December. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Feb. 1.

☆ China’s January factory activity returns to growth as economists cheer its reopening
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

A textile factory on December 30, 2022 in Jiangxi Province. Chinese manufacturing activity contracted at its sharpest pace in nearly 3 years in December. China's factory activity bounced back in January and expanded for the first time since September, data from the national bureau of statistics showed. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.1 in January, above the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction. Non-manufacturing PMI rose to 54.4, the highest level since June 2022.

☆ Morning Bid: Fed games
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in markets from Stephen Culp, New York stock market reporter. Asian stocks are primed for a green Wednesday on the heels of a broad rally on Wall Street, as a slew of economic data suggested the Federal Reserve's restrictive monetary policy is working as directed. Risk appetite was largely fueled by economic data, specifically the Employment Cost Index (ECI) which decelerated in the fourth quarter to its slowest growth in a year - yet another sign that decades-high inflation is beginning to cool. This is welcome news for the Fed, which is expected to punctuate its two-day monetary policy meeting on Wednesday with a 25 basis point hike to the Fed funds target rate, its latest salvo in its battle against inflation. On Wednesday, market participants will digest factory and labor market data and parse the Fed's statement and Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the subsequent press conference.

☆ China's factory activity likely contracted more slowly in January
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, Jan 30 (Reuters) - China's factory activity in January is expected to have contracted more slowly than in December, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, with production hampered as workers continued to fall sick after the government dismantled its "zero-COVID" regime." While the "exit wave" of infections passed through the population and workforce faster than economists had anticipated, disruptions on production lines persisted. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion in activity on a monthly basis and a reading below indicates contraction. The official manufacturing PMI, which largely focuses on big and state-owned firms, and its survey for the services sector, will be released on Tuesday. The private sector Caixin manufacturing PMI, which centres more on small firms and coastal regions, will be published on Feb. 1.

☆ Stocks may face an inflection point in the week ahead as the Fed meets and Apple posts earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The Fed's meeting Tuesday and Wednesday comes amid a flood of corporate earnings reports, with about 20% of the S & P 500 reporting that week. The most important day for earnings is Thursday, when Apple , Alphabet and Amazon report after the bell. The Nasdaq Composite was up 11% for the month as of Friday afternoon, well ahead of the 6.2% gain in the S & P 500. Traders have been watching the S & P 500 edge closer to the key threshold of 4,100 , its high from December. AAPL 1Y line apple Apple is also important because of the signals it can send about the strength of the consumer, supply chains and China's reopening.

Industrial conglomerate 3M Co (MMM.N) fell 4.7%, leading the decliners among Dow components in premarket trading, after reporting a fall in quarterly profit. General Electric Co (GE.N) rose 2.2% as it topped quarterly profit estimates, boosted by strong demand for its engines and after-market services. Wall Street's main indexes started the earnings-heavy week on solid ground amid renewed appetite for growth stocks following a battering last year. Shares of Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O), which is scheduled to report quarterly earnings after the bell, were flat. Big Tech earnings could also determine whether renewed enthusiasm for growth stocks will be sustained.

☆ Euro zone January business activity returns to growth - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, climbed to 50.2 this month from 49.3 in December. The PMI covering the bloc's dominant services index also surprised to the upside, coming in at a six-month high of 50.7. The manufacturing PMI rose to 48.8 this month from 47.8, ahead of the 48.5 Reuters poll forecast. An index measuring output which feeds into the composite PMI bounced to a seven-month high of 49.0 from 47.8. Like in the services PMI, the input prices index fell but firms raised their charges at a faster rate.

☆ Morning Bid: It's all about the weather
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. Essentially banks could borrow at an average 0.145% fixed for five years to invest in JGBs - what could go wrong? The U.S. manufacturing PMI is forecast to dip to 46.0 from 46.2, with services at 45.0 from 44.7. Ironically, the weather in the States in recent weeks has been a lot worse than in Europe, which was not how this story was supposed to pan out. ($1 = 130.2100 yen)Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. business activity still soft in early 2023, but outlook perks up
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P Global's Flash U.S. Composite Output Index rose to 46.6 in January - with readings below 50 indicating contraction in activity - from a final reading of 45.0 in December. While that was the highest in three months, companies still reported demand was soft and high inflation was a headwind to customer spending. Another quarter-percentage point increase is expected enroute to a policy rate officials see rising above 5% this year. The S&P Global survey's forward-looking indexes did show improved confidence in the outlook, indicating businesses expect the situation to improve later in the year. "The pick-up in positive sentiment was broad-based, with companies hopeful of a resurgence in customer demand as 2023 progresses," it said.

☆ Euro zone business activity back to growth in January -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity made a surprise return to modest growth in January, adding to signs the downturn in the bloc may not be as deep as feared and that the currency union may escape recession, a survey showed. S&P Global's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, climbed to 50.2 this month from 49.3 in December. In France, the bloc's second biggest economy, output fell slightly overall again in January, its PMI showed, but manufacturing activity improved for the first time since August. British private-sector economic activity, however, fell at its fastest rate in two years in January, another PMI showed, as businesses blamed higher Bank of England interest rates, strikes and weak consumer demand for the slowdown. IMPROVED SERVICESIn a sign they are growing more optimistic, firms in the euro zone increased headcount at a faster rate this month.

☆ Earnings could keep the market on edge in week ahead as investors wait for Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

I do think that will happen even more in the week ahead as the Fed is in a blackout period. S & P Global PMI data is released for both services and manufacturing Tuesday. "The market continues to think the Fed does not have to administer as much medicine as the Fed tells us they plan to. Earnings, earnings, earnings Stocks were lower in the past week, with the S & P 500 off by 1.8%. "It's a mild earnings recession, but it's an earnings recession.

☆ Dollar slips near seven-month lows after jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But, with consumer inflation data due later this week, it's the outlook for price pressures that is still front and centre for investors. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. dollar against six major currencies, was last down 0.1% at 103.62, having fallen 1.15% on Friday as investors shifted into riskier assets. However, the labour market is still tight and likely to deter the Fed from slowing down any time soon, analysts said. The Japanese yen was the outlier among the major currencies, easing 0.2% to 132.33 per dollar. Optimism over a swift economic recovery sent China's offshore yuan towards five-month highs against the dollar on Monday.

☆ Instant View: US payrolls show labor market remains strong but wages rises cool
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased 223,000 last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Monthly job growth is well above the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working age population. "Through the rest of the report, the average hourly earnings month over month came in at 0.3%. But everything else about this shows a very, very resilient labor market which doesn’t bode well for a smaller rate hike. "Fed will look at these numbers and say that the labor market is still pretty robust and to the extent that they would like to see a bit of slack in the labor market."

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