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What protests in China may mean for the economy
  + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
New York CNN Business —Protests against China’s prolonged and restrictive Covid regulations spread across the country over the weekend. Oil plunged and hit 2022 lows on Monday, while shares of companies that rely on China for production felt the heat. Oil prices dropped sharply, with investors concerned that surging Covid cases and protests in China may sap demand from one of the world’s largest oil consumers. They don’t want to end their covid policy but they also want to ensure that the political unrest doesn’t grow. This week is chock full of important economic data releases, many of which will help guide the Fed’s next interest rate hike decision in December.
Gen Z's outlook on homeownership has darkened since 2019 , according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. , according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. The weight of student debt was among the top complaints fielded by Freddie Mac. Younger Americans are also looking particularly overextended with their credit card debt, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Still, the majority of Gen Z can't seem to get its finances up to snuff, as some numbers bear out.
Banks view their daily reserve balance levels as "scarce resource," the paper's authors said, adding "even in the era of large central bank balance sheets, rather than funding payments with abundant reserve balances, we show that outgoing payments remain highly sensitive to incoming payments." "There is still a potential for strategic cash hoarding when reserve balances get sufficiently low," the researchers wrote. Meanwhile, bank reserves are at $3.18 trillion, down about $1 trillion from a year ago. The Fed has expressed confidence it can draw down reserves in a way that will not affect its interest rate target. The paper suggests the way banks are managing liquidity, even in a time of ample liquidity, could challenge that view.
To combat high inflation, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates this year at the fastest clip in 40 years. But analysts warn that high interest rates and potentially unfavorable terms can trip up shoppers, eroding the hoped-for savings. That’s the highest interest rate since the credit card marketplace began tracking it for store cards in 2018. Using credit cards can help build credit. And with fees and rates for new store cards even higher than the current record levels for traditional credit cards, “many people’s financial margin for error is basically zero,” Schulz says.
That said, overall mortgage debt during the third quarter rose by $282 billion and hit $11.67 trillion at the end of September, the New York Fed said. The rise in consumer level debt took place in an economy where unemployment was low and consumer demand was high amid the worst levels of inflation seen in 40 years. INFLATION BOOSTS CONSUMER SPENDINGThe New York Fed report said that during the third quarter there was a 15% increase in credit card balances, which was the largest such increase in more than 20 years. The report noted that student loan balances declined slightly during the third quarter and stood at $1.57 trillion. A report from the New York Fed in September said that the president's plan could cancel out just under half a trillion dollars' worth of existing debt.
NEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Global banking giants are starting a 12-week digital dollar pilot with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the participants announced on Tuesday. Citigroup Inc , HSBC Holdings Plc (HSBA.L), Mastercard Inc (MA.N) and Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) are among the financial companies participating in the experiment alongside the New York Fed's innovation center, they said in a statement. The project, which is called the regulated liability network, will be conducted in a test environment and use simulated data, the New York Fed said. The pilot will test how banks using digital dollar tokens in a common database can help speed up payments. Earlier this month, Michelle Neal, head of the New York Fed's market's group, said it sees promise in using a central bank digital dollar to speed up settlement time in currency markets.
Large global banks are planning to pilot a digital dollar with the New York Fed. The test run will examine how a digital token can help expedite payments. Other firms also listed by the New York Fed include BNY Mellon, PNC Bank, Truist Financial, US Bancorp and TD Bank. All of the firms will participate in the project and use simulated data in a test environment. The test run follows the latest blow to the crypto sector, which was rocked last week by FTX's liquidity crisis and bankruptcy filing.
Central bank officials contend that where the public sees inflation in the future has a strong influence on current inflation readings. Speaking on Nov. 9, New York Fed leader John Williams said “the importance of maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations is a bedrock principle of modern central banking.” He added, “the news is mostly good — longer-run inflation expectations in the United States have remained remarkably stable at levels broadly consistent” with what the Fed wants to see on inflation over the longer run. “so far, inflation expectations seem to be holding a couple of years out, which is critical,” but he also said “the thing with inflation expectations, once they're unanchored, they're gone. Once it goes, it goes.”The rise in inflation expectations seen in the New York Fed report may be linked to change in the outlook for gasoline prices. MIXED OUTLOOK FOR PERSONAL FINANCESThe New York Fed report also found deteriorating expectations for employment, with the report noting “unemployment expectations reached the highest level since April 2020.”Households view of future finances was mixed in October.
Nov 9 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams cited the relative stability of longer-run inflation expectations as good news on Wednesday as the U.S. central bank continues to work to get price pressures back to the desired level. So far, hikes in the Fed's target rate range, now standing at between 3.75% and 4%, have not lowered price pressures much back to the 2% official target. Fed officials say they believe that public expectations of price pressures in the future exert a strong influence on where inflation is today. He noted that short-term inflation expectations, which have risen, have been the most reactive to incoming inflation data. Williams also noted that uncertainty over the inflation outlook has risen and there have been some curious developments as well.
The labor market is still tight, but employers are ready to hire from the pool of new college graduates. NACE found that respondents plan to hire 14.7% more 2023 graduates compared to the class of 2022. That's good news for workers, especially recent college graduates. "For instance, in many cases it costs less to hire a recent college graduate compared to a mid-career or senior-level professional." But it noted "only 6% expect to cut back on hiring new college graduates."
Nov 4 (Reuters) - Cost of new debt for companies may be at a premium but there is no liquidity distress yet in the U.S. corporate bond markets, said Nina Boyarchenko, head of microfinance studies at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a developer of the Corporate Bond Market Distress Index (CMDI). The index, with historical data dating back to 2005, for U.S. investment grade bonds touched a new two-year high of 0.52 on Oct. 21. That level is just 13 points away from the 0.65 level touched at the height of the COVID-19 crisis when the Fed announced a liquidity backstop for corporate credit markets. CMDI for high-yield bonds, meanwhile, stood at 0.24 versus 0.60 at the height of the COVID crisis. "From the perspective of market functioning, it is not really a sign of distress," she said.
Nov 4 (Reuters) - A top Federal Reserve Bank of New York official said on Friday that the bank sees promise in using a central bank digital dollar to speed up settlement time in foreign exchange markets. Michelle Neal, who is head of the bank's Markets Group, did not say anything involving a central bank digital currency, or CBDC, was imminent. Foreign exchange spot transactions "are critical in the context of cross-border payments, and serve as a building block for longer, more complex transactions," Neal said in the text of remarks to be given before a conference in Singapore. According to the research effort, a Fed digital dollar, used in a wholesale capacity, and the technology to record transactions "results in instant and atomic settlement." The Fed has been exploring for some time how it can launch a fully digital dollar that some have referred to as Fedcoin.
London CNN Business —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has the power to make or break markets these days. “Essentially, it killed the pivot dreams.”Economic data, particularly for the labor market, still looks relatively strong. “Big advertisers that we traditionally get spend from are not spending this quarter,” Roku (ROKU) CEO Anthony Wood told analysts after the company reported earnings on Wednesday. Ford saw its October US sales slump 10% over the last year as the company continued to battle supply chain difficulties. In March, the company said it would ship some vehicles without some less crucial computer chips and add them later.
Third-quarter results from the big Wall Street banks are now behind us, and they were … pretty good, all things considered? Goldman Sachs reported yesterday, and while it may not be the biggest nor the best bank (OK, No. Trading and dealmaking made the reputation of the 153-year-old Wall Street firm, but the spotlight lately has been on its struggling consumer banking unit, Marcus. The consumer business "doesn't make money at the moment," Solomon acknowledged, but he added: "The deposits are hugely valuable. From Wall Street darlings to prey.
The bank said its September Survey of Consumer Expectations survey found that respondents projected their spending will rise by 6% over the next year, a sharp drop from the 7.8% rise predicted in the August survey. The bank noted that decline in spending expectations was the biggest since the survey began in 2013. On the inflation front, households said they were expecting a moderation in near-term price pressure but an increase in price pressures over the longer-run horizon. The survey found that the public sees inflation at 5.4% a year from now, down from 5.7% in August. Fed officials have had some confidence they will be able to get inflation back to their 2% target due to what they see as the relative stability of longer-run inflation expectations.
If implemented, "the reduction in student debt prevalence and balances will create a substantial financial improvement for borrowers." The report noted that some 65% of government student loan borrowers live in neighborhoods with annual median household incomes below $83,000. The White House says the typical undergraduate student graduates with $25,000 in student loan debt, with total federal student loan debt spread among 45 million borrowers standing at $1.6 trillion. Some have worried it will exacerbate already large federal budget deficits, while others think it favors the well off, many of whom hold substantial levels of student debt. Others have also said the plan doesn't address the root cause of rising student loan debt, which is the rapid expansion in the cost of college.
CNN —As prices continue to rise, Americans are becoming increasingly reliant on credit cards to make purchases. “The effect on existing credit card borrowers is probably actually worse,” he said, because of the rate hikes the Fed has undertaken already this year. Credit cards were a big cause of that: In the second quarter, 233 million new credit accounts were opened, the largest increase since 2008. Of the new debt that accumulated during that quarter, $46 billion was credit card debt. Credit bureau TransUnion found that there are more credit cards today, and there is more debt on those cards.
Some highly rated companies are turning to term loans instead of bonds for their financing needs, taking advantage of cheaper pricing as banks have been slower to adjust to rising interest rates than the credit markets. Highly rated companies raised $998.8 billion in bonds in the U.S. this year through Monday, compared with $177.9 billion in term loans, according to Refinitiv, a data provider. For all of last year, fundraising through bonds amounted to $1.46 trillion versus $236.7 billion for term loans for investment-grade-rated companies. Term loans often have a shorter duration than bonds, with many of them ranging from three to five years. Term loans tend to be secured,” Mr. Holtz said, pointing to the mixture of bonds and term loans that make up the company’s capital structure.
The number of job openings has been sky high over the past year in the red-hot labor market. That could be because some firms are posting "ghost jobs" that they're not actually hiring for. While many employers can't find enough workers, some qualified candidates are applying to open jobs and aren't hearing anything back. Some recruiters say that ghost jobs are on the rise due to the heightened level of uncertainty that's persisted for the past two and a half years. "There are too many jobs posted"Andrew Flowers, a labor economist at Appcast, the recruitment advertising technology company, expressed skepticism that "ghost jobs" are a widespread problem.
Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterPeople walk wearing masks outside The Federal Reserve Bank of New York in New York City, U.S., March 18, 2020. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File Photo/File PhotoSept 18 (Reuters) - A group of bank regulators appointed by U.S President Joe Biden is considering new rules which will require big regional banks to add financial cushions that can be used in times of crisis, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday. The new steps include the regional banks raising long-term debt that will help absorb losses in cases of insolvency, the WSJ reported adding three people familiar with the matter. The WSJ report comes over a week after U.S. Federal Reserve chief Michael Barr said that there soon may be tougher rules on large regional lenders after a 'holistic' review of bank capital requirements is concluded. read more(This story refiles to make clear WSJ attribution in headline)Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Rachna Dhanrajani in Bengaluru, Editing by William MacleanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
A well-oiled transportation system is vital to keeping the economy humming — especially in a country as large as the United States. Unfortunately, Americans' ability to get resources where they need to go has been crippled by a pair of outdated laws: the Jones Act and the Foreign Dredge Act. As with Jones Act ships, hopper dredges constructed in US shipyards are significantly more expensive than those built abroad. But despite these huge costs, the Jones Act and the Foreign Dredge Act survive largely intact. The Jones Act and the Foreign Dredge Act are just two examples among many, and behind each one lies an entrenched interest group dedicated to its preservation.
A majority of Americans said last month that price increases were causing financial hardship for their households, a Gallup survey released this week found. It includes 12% of respondents who described the hardship as "severe" and 44% who called it "moderate." Upper-income Americans, too, have seen a double-digit increase in financial hardships: up 12 points to 40%. Although the increase in the hardship rate among lower-income Americans was smaller, about three-quarters of that group reported hardships. Reports of financial hardship also differed by political party.
The pandemic has seen a rise in "polywork" — people working multiple jobs or side hustles. One aspect of this future is a rise in people holding multiple jobs. Still, the buzz around polyworking fails to consider that many are not pursuing multiple work opportunities voluntarily. For many, working multiple jobs is a necessity. We have to be aware that it's one thing to want to work multiple jobs — it's another to feel like you have to work them.
Our experts answer readers' student loan questions and write unbiased product reviews (here's how we assess student loans). If you refinance federal student loans, you will be ineligible for COVID-related forbearance. Insider's Featured Student Loan Refinance Companies SoFi Student Loan RefinancingSplash Financial Student Loan RefinancingEarnest Student Loan Refinancing Chevron icon It indicates an expandable section or menu, or sometimes previous / next navigation options. Show more Variable: 5.99% - 9.99%, Fixed: 4.99% - 9.99% Editor's Rating 4.5/5 A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star APR Variable: 4.99% - 10.89% with AutoPay, Fixed: 4.96% - 10.99% with AutoPay Editor's Rating 3.5/5 A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star A five pointed star APR Actual rate and available repayment terms will vary based on your income. You can only refinance federal student loans with a private lender, as the government has no refinancing program.
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One of the reporters noted that Powell's public calendar showed calls with Larry Fink, BlackRock's chief executive, in March, April, and May. The exchange was hardly the first time no-bid contracts between the Fed and BlackRock's Financial Markets Advisory unit raised questions. Still, former employees told Insider that FMA has served as a clear source of public-facing clout for BlackRock. "The FMA clients have extended their advisory relationships to be multiyear." A little over a year ago, FMA pulled employees out of BlackRock's office there, three former employees said.
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