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Bill Ackman said in a Bloomberg podcast he expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates soon. He said the US economy risks a sharp downturn if the Fed doesn't cut interest rates soon. AdvertisementBill Ackman expects the US Federal Reserve to cut rates as early as the first quarter of next year. The Fed needs to cut interest rates soon to avoid a sharp downturn in the US economy, the billionaire investor said on Bloomberg's "The David Rubenstein Show: Peer-to-Peer Conversations." The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022 in an effort to cool soaring inflation.
Persons: Bill Ackman, , David Rubenstein, That's, Ackman, Rubenstein, There's Organizations: Bloomberg, US Federal Reserve, Service, Carlyle Group, Deutsche Bank, European Central Bank, UBS Locations: Israel, Swiss
The U.S. economy is "back to normal" for the first time in two decades, but the market is getting ahead of the likely pace of interest rate cuts, according to IBM Vice Chairman Gary Cohn. The central bank in September paused its historically aggressive monetary tightening cycle with the Fed funds rate target range at 5.25-5.5%, up from just 0.25-0.5% in March 2022. "You don't want to be early to leave when you're the last one to come to the party. "The economy will clearly turn down before the Fed had starts to cut interest rates, so I strongly believe that for the first half of '24, we will see no rate activity in the Fed. Maybe [in the third quarter], we'll start hearing rumblings of some forward guidance of lower rates."
Persons: Gary Cohn, Cohn —, Donald Trump, Cohn, CNBC's Dan Murphy Organizations: IBM, Federal Reserve, National Economic, Abu, Abu Dhabi Finance, Fed Locations: U.S, Abu Dhabi
Next year could be the year for certain dividend stocks, according to Wolfe Research. The S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index is composed of companies that have increased dividends for at least 25 consecutive years. Here are some of the names in the S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index. For investors who prefer funds, they can also get exposure through the ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats exchange-traded fund. NOBL YTD mountain ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
Persons: Chris Senyek, Senyek, Wolfe, Roz Brewer, Tim Wentworth, Wentworth, Medtronic, Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Federal, Materials, Walgreens, Shields Health,
Stock futures flickered near the flat line on Tuesday, as investors held out hope that the Federal Reserve is done raising benchmark interest rates. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked higher by 16 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.03% each%. Indeed, fed funds futures pricing suggests a chance that the central bank could cut rates as early as next spring, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. On the earnings front, Hormel Foods and Dollar Tree are expected to issue quarterly results before the opening bell.
Persons: Miriam Adelson, NetApp, Christopher Waller, Waller, Adam Crisafulli Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Las Vegas Sands, Dow, Hormel Locations: Las Vegas
What is the federal funds rate?
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Karen Fernandez | Richard Richtmyer | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +8 min
Set by the Federal Reserve, the federal funds rate is the interest banks charge each other to borrow money overnight. The federal funds rate (or fed funds rate, for short) is only used between banks. The federal funds rate is an interbank interest rate. Federal funds rate FAQsWhat happens when the federal funds rate is high? Is the federal funds rate the same as the prime rate?
Persons: Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Federal, Finance, Fed, Market, Fed's, Governors, Federal Reserve Bank
Wall St ends lower amid Cyber Monday madness
  + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers later in the week will also be parsed for clues regarding the duration of the central bank's restrictive policy. Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Amid the Cyber Monday fervor, Affirm Holdings (AFRM.O) surged 12.0%, as the payment platform's "buy now, pay later" option was seen hitting an all-time high, boosting the online holiday sales. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.63-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 79 new lows.
Persons: Elliott, Tom Hainlin, Greg Bassuk, Brendan McDermid, they’ve, Hainlin, Shopify, Stephen Culp, Shristi Achar, Shinjini Ganguli, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, Adobe Analytics, AXS Investments, Federal Reserve, Financial, Commerce, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Elliott Investment Management, GE HealthCare, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Minneapolis, New York, New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was slightly higher, the Dow was edging red and the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged, but leaning lower. The S&P 500 Retail index (.SPXRT) was up 0.9%. Later in the week, market participants look to the Commerce Department's second take on third-quarter GDP expected on Wednesday, to be followed on Friday with its broad-ranging Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. The S&P 500 posted 34 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 78 new highs and 64 new lows.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Elliott, Dow, Greg Bassuk, Bassuk, Shopify, Stephen Culp, Shristi Achar, Shinjini Ganguli, Matthew Lewis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Adobe Analytics, AXS Investments, Federal Reserve, Financial, Commerce, Dow Jones, Walmart, Elliott Investment Management, GE HealthCare, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Bengaluru
"It's important to keep sharing this idea to do something with your cash; these rates won't be here forever." Municipal money market funds Rather than tying up money in CDs or T-bills, Sachs prefers municipal money market funds for investors in the highest income tax brackets. Vanguard's Municipal Money Market Fund (VMSXX) has a 7-day SEC yield of 3.53% and carries an expense ratio of 0.15%. Residents in high-tax locales may also want to consider state-specific muni market funds, which have the additional benefit of providing income that's free of state taxes. For instance, there's the Vanguard California Municipal Money Market Fund (VCTXX) and the Fidelity New York Municipal Money Market Fund (FSNXX) .
Persons: , Catherine Valega, Sallie Mae, Jeremy Keil, Keil, There's, Charles Sachs, Kaufman, Sachs, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal, Green Bee, Synchrony, Financial, Keil Financial Partners, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, FDIC, ., CFP, Money Market Fund, SEC, Residents, Vanguard, Fidelity New York Municipal Money Market Fund Locations: Winchester , Massachusetts, New Berlin , Wisconsin, Miami, Vanguard California
The pincer movement of these two policy actions drove the Fed to start losing money in September 2022. The central bank captures the net negative income situation in an accounting measure called a deferred asset, which as of Nov. 22 stood at $120.4 billion. As the Fed sees it, the deferred asset is what must be covered before the central bank can again return excess earnings to the Treasury. The Fed has repeatedly stressed that losing money in no way impacts its ability to operate and conduct monetary policy. The research from the St. Louis Fed estimates it will cover the deferred asset by mid-2027.
Persons: Louis, Joseph Wang, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Treasury, Louis Fed, Treasury Department, Reuters, New York Fed, Thomson
Yet, the Fed chief was roundly criticized for avoiding tightening because the economy wouldn't slow down; nor would inflation. The country adopted a strict Covid policy that prevailed through 2022 causing its GDP to fall to 3% way below the Chinese government's 5.5% target. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping acted as if nothing had weakened and only strengthened his hold on lifetime power. The S&P 500 advanced 14% over the next two years, but China's market sank nearly 1.5% during the same period. Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping acted as if nothing had weakened and only strengthened his hold on lifetime power.
Persons: Jerome Powell, couldn't, Powell, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Pelosi, Biden, Xi Jinping, Xi, It's, China hasn't, Trump, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Tasos Katopodis, Brendan Smialowski Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Initiative, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Nike, Apple, Starbucks, Trump, Nvidia, United Auto Workers, UAW, Pfizer, CNBC, Federal, Financial, Treasury Department, Capitol, Reuters, Economic Cooperation, Afp, Getty Locations: U.S, China, United States, Taiwan, San Francisco, Mexico, Washington , U.S, Asia
Risk-taking investors also fared well in high-yield bonds, as the fund category generated a 2023 total return of 6.98% through Friday. Big performers in that category include the Pacific Income Advisors High Yield (MACS) Fund (PIAMX) for investors with managed accounts. The BondBloxx CCC Rated USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (XCCC) was also among the strongest performers in the fund category. See below for a list of top performing high yield bond funds, according to Morningstar Direct. "I think these historically high yields have offered attractive entry points for high quality," said Murphy.
Persons: It's, Morningstar, it's, Thomas Murphy, Rowe, Murphy Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Morningstar, Morningstar . Bank, SEC, Pacific Income, PIAMX, Morningstar Direct Locations: U.S
Treasury bonds have erased this year's losses amid a rebound from their historic collapse. After falling as much as 3.3% earlier this year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index is now roughly flat. After falling as much as 3.3% earlier this year, the Bloomberg US Treasury Index is now roughly back where it was at the end of 2022. The hawkish stance sparked a historic crash in long-dated bonds, which suffered 46% losses between March 2020 and early October. And so far in the month of November alone, the Bloomberg US Treasury index is up 2.8%, its largest increase since March.
Persons: , Treasurys, there's Organizations: Bloomberg US, Federal, Service, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, JPMorgan, YE24
CNBC Pro reviewed FactSet data to see how the major indexes fared 12 months after the final rate hike in prior cycles. In fact, as Hooper observed, the S & P 500 saw double-digit returns following the last increase in five out of the last six rate-hiking cycles. After the final rate hike in June 2006, the S & P 500 gained 18% in the following 12 months, in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis. The S & P 500 lost 12%, while the Nasdaq Composite plunged 41%. The Dow alone came out in positive territory 12 months out.
Persons: Invesco's Kristina Hooper, CNBC's, it's, Hooper, Russell, Dow, Invesco's Hooper Organizations: CNBC Pro, Nasdaq, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Global
watch nowFederal Reserve officials at their most recent meeting expressed little appetite for cutting interest rates anytime soon, particularly as inflation remains well above their goal, according to minutes released Tuesday. Ultimately, the market expects that the Fed will enact the equivalent of four quarter percentage point cuts before the end of 2024. No mention of cutsHowever, the minutes gave no indication that members even discussed when they might start lowering rates, which was reflected in Chairman Jerome Powell's post-meeting news conference. "The fact is, the Committee is not thinking about rate cuts right now at all," Powell said then. The meeting occurred amid market worries over rising Treasury yields, a topic that appeared to generate substantial discussion during the meeting.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Traders, Fed, Treasury Department, Treasury
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on April 26, 2023 in New York City. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 7 points, or 0.02%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.05%, while Nasdaq 100 futures ticked up 0.1%. The S&P 500 added 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.1%, marking the fifth positive day for the two indexes. The Nasdaq 100 , meanwhile, climbed about 1.2% and hit a 22-month high earlier in the day.
Persons: Dow, Sam Altman, Lowe's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nvidia, Traders, Federal, HP Locations: New York City
There's a new top dog when it comes to yields on 1-year certificates of deposit, according to an analysis by Stephens. Bread Financial now has the highest annual percentage yield for 1-year CDs among banks in Stephens' coverage at 5.6%. However, the online bank didn't reach the top by raising its APY. Instead, it was because LendingClub slashed its 1-year CD yield by 10 basis points to 5.55%, analyst Vincent Caintic said. "Online banks had already been cutting 1yr CD rates and this may likely continue as near-term rate expectations fall," Caintic said.
Persons: Stephens, LendingClub, Vincent Caintic, Caintic, What's, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox Organizations: Bread, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, The Fed, Investors, Chicago Fed Locations: Stephens
Investors like dividend stocks for their yields, but the equities' returns have been pretty dismal so far this year. "That's what is putting pressure on these [dividend] stocks, or maybe just keeping them from lifting." IPDP YTD line Dividend Performers ETF (IPDP) performance year to date When it comes to specific stocks, Gilreath likes two under-the-radar plays: Brady Corporation and ABM Industries . Brady, which manufacturers identification and health-care products, has a 1.7% dividend yield. Diversification in light of recession risk When it comes to dividends, investors should look for quality rather than quantity.
Persons: That's, Bond, Andrew Graham, Dave Sheaff Gilreath, Gilreath, Morningstar . Brady, Capital's Graham, Graham, Dow, Laura Mattia, Morningstar, George Gagliardi, You'd, I'm Organizations: Investment, Jackson, Capital, Federal Reserve, Brady Corporation, ABM Industries, Dow Inc, Dow, LyondellBasell, Shell, Coromandel Wealth Management, U.S Locations: San Francisco, Indianapolis, Sarasota , Florida, Lexington , Massachusetts
But the market wrongly priced in a looser stance at least six times in the last few years, Deutsche Bank wrote. The S&P 500 advanced 3.6% that month as bond yields fell. AdvertisementThe S&P 500 jumped 6.6% in the week ending May 27, its strongest weekly performance of 2022. The S&P 500 surged 5.7% over October 3-4, marking the biggest two-day rally since April 2020. Yields on 2-year Treasurys tumbled, and the S&P 500 jumped 7% from a low in the immediate aftermath of SVB's collapse to the end of the March.
Persons: , Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Service, Fed, Bank Locations: Ukraine
Despite recent encouraging signs on inflation, Boston Federal Reserve President Susan Collins said Friday that more interest rate hikes could yet be needed. But I don't see additional firming off the table," the central bank official told CNBC's Steve Liesman during a "Squawk on the Street" interview. "I think the key point is we need to really stay the course." The central bank's benchmark borrowing rate is targeted in a range between 5.25%-5.5%, the highest in 22 years. Collins will not be a voting member on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee until 2025.
Persons: Susan Collins, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Collins Organizations: Boston Federal, Market Committee
Last month, bond yields made a comeback and the 10-year Treasury note hit roughly 5%, the highest since 2007. On the other end, bond risk comes from the borrower's ability to pay back their obligation. For investors who want higher income, Bory recommends considering a mutual fund or a commingled fund that provides that diversification. Popular examples of corporate bond funds include the MainStay MacKay High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (MHCAX), Goldman Sachs High Yield Fund (GSHIX), and High Yield Spectrum Fund (PHSIX). Below is a list of Morningstar analysts' favorite high-yield bond funds that have the highest "Gold Medalist" rating.
Persons: George Bory, Bory, MacKay, Goldman Sachs, Allspring, It's, Acct, Rowe Price Organizations: Business, Allspring, Investments, Fed, AAA, BBB, Bond Fund, Fund, Morningstar, PIA Locations: Allspring, US
Morning Bid: Consumers in focus as Walmart reports
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan. Thursday's corporate calendar features a host of earnings reports that will shine further light on the health of the global consumer, as U.S. retailers Walmart (WMT.N), Bath & Body Works and Macy's (M.N) report earnings. Expectations for Walmart ride high after peer Target (TGT.N) surged by almost a fifth on Wednesday in the wake of its consensus-beating holiday sales forecast and upbeat view of its supply chain. Figures on Wednesday showed U.S. producer prices fell at their fastest pace since April 2020, and UK consumer inflation undershot all forecasts. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile in Asia, Japan's exports are struggling due to slumping China-bound shipments of chips and steel.
Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, Eddie Wu, Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, What's, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, England's Randall Kroszner, ECB's Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, Fed's Loretta Mester, John Williams, Michael Barr, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Vidya, Walmart, Body, Insider Intelligence, U.S, Bank, Events, Applied Materials, Siemens, SQM, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, China, San Francisco, Bath, France
[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, July 20, 2023. The British consumer price index rose by 4.6% in the 12 months to October, slowing from September's 6.7% increase, the Office for National Statistics said. He sees a "more complicated" process ahead, where stock market exuberance eventually collides with bond market expectations that an economic slowdown will drive rate cuts. The dollar index , which measures the currency against a basket of peers, stood at 104.17, not far from Tuesday's two-month low of 103.98. Interest rate futures swung to price in an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as May, with a 30% chance it could come even sooner, in March.
Persons: May MILAN, Carlo Franchini, Naka, Russell, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Sterling, Danilo Masoni, Tom Westbrook, Alex Richardson Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Bank of England, Banca Ifigest, National Statistics, CPI, Nasdaq, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bloomberg News, Golden, HSBC, Brent, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, United States, Europe, Asia, China, Milan, Ukraine, Italy, France, Tokyo, San Francisco, London, CHINA, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Singapore
Overnight the Nasdaq (.IXIC) jumped 2.4%, bonds surged and the dollar slumped more than 1.6% on the euro. Yields fall when bond prices climb. In foreign exchange trade, the dollar suffered its heaviest selling in 12 months, with the sharpest losses against risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar. In Japan, the Bank of Japan stepped back and pared its regular bond buying as markets rallied. Ten-year Japanese government bond yields hit a one-month low of 0.775%.
Persons: Androniki, Sam Rines, Chetan Seth, Brent Donnelly, Tom Westbrook, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Federal, CPI, Japan's Nikkei, New Zealand, Nomura, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Texas, U.S, Canada
While Fed officials haven't indicated how many months in a row it will take of easing inflation data to reach that conclusion, 12-month core CPI has fallen each month since April. The Fed prefers core inflation measures as a better gauge of long-run inflation trends. Traders appear to have more certainty than Fed officials at this point. If correct, that would take the benchmark rate down to a target range of 4.25%-4.5% and would be twice as aggressive as the pace Fed officials penciled in back in September. But pricing of Fed actions can be volatile, and there are two more inflation reports ahead before that meeting.
Persons: Spencer Platt, Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP, We're, Crandall, Jerome Powell, haven't, They're, Eric Rosengren Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Boston Fed Locations: New York City, Atlanta
U.S. credit card debt soared to $1.08 trillion in the third quarter of 2023, data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed earlier this month. "I don't think we're facing the next GFC [global financial crisis]," he said on the sidelines of the UBS European Conference. Credit tightening does play a role when it comes to the lag of Federal Reserve monetary policy filtering through to the economy, Pingle suggested. The Federal Reserve began hiking interest rates in March 2022 in an effort to ease inflation and cool the economy. "It's great news for the Federal Reserve in their quest to restore price stability," Pingle told CNBC on Wednesday.
Persons: Jonathan Pingle, Pingle, CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche, It's Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, UBS European Conference, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Wednesday, Fed Locations: Silicon
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