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☆ First woman and LGBTQ person elected Massachusetts governor sworn in
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Associated Press | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +4 min

Maura Healey, the first woman and first open member of the LGBTQ community to be elected governor of Massachusetts, was sworn into office at the Statehouse Thursday, pledging to lead “with empathy and with equity.”Healey’s elevation to governor signals a political shift in the state’s top elected office from GOP to Democratic hands. Kim Driscoll, who served as mayor of Salem, was elected lieutenant governor with Healey and was also sworn in on Thursday. She acknowledged the soaring cost of housing in Massachusetts and vowed in her first 100 days to create a new secretary of housing. She’s only the second Democrat in the past three decades to be elected governor in Massachusetts. Nancy Lane / The Boston Herald via APThe new governor is also part of a record number of women occupying top state elected offices in Massachusetts.

The slowdown in manufacturing and freight has already dampened consumption of diesel and other distillate fuel oils, and consumption is likely to fall if the manufacturing downturn deepens. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing activity index fell to 48.4 in December (19th percentile for all months since 1980) compared with 49.0 in November (22nd percentile). As a result, consumption is closely correlated with the acceleration and deceleration of the manufacturing and freight cycle. In line with manufacturing activity, the growth in distillate supplied has been decelerating progressively since the second quarter of 2021 and has now stalled. If the manufacturing slowdown deepens over the next six months, as seems likely, distillate consumption is likely to fall.

LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Europe’s gas prices are slumping as the combination of mild weather and reduced industrial consumption has produced an unusual seasonal increase in inventories which threatens to overwhelm the storage system. EU28 gas storage is very different from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve and emergency petroleum stockpiles maintained in other countries. Given finite capacity in the gas storage system, there is a limit to how much conservation in winter 2022/23 can improve supply security in winter 2023/24. Slumping gas prices imply the limit is close to being reached. Policymakers have criticised very high prices for gas that prevailed for much of 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

☆ Jim Cramer predicts these ten S&P 500 stocks will perform well in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Wednesday offered investors a selection of stocks that he believes will do well this year. To come up with his picks, he examined the best- and worst performers in the S&P 500 from last year and chose five potential 2023 winners from each list. Here are the best-performers from 2022 that Cramer believes could continue to see gains this year:HalliburtonCramer predicted that the stock has a multi-year rally ahead of it. Enphase EnergyCalling it the "renewable golden boy," Cramer said the solar energy technology company is a profitable, solid business. Northrop GrummanThe company's stock could be the best defense contractor to own as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, according to Cramer.

Funds had already increased their combined position by 44 million barrels over the seven days ending on Dec. 20, according to data from regulators and exchanges. The late surge of purchasing reverses some of the 236 million barrels of sales reported over the previous five weeks. Crude positions had risen to 331 million barrels (14th percentile) up from a low of 253 million (5th percentile) on Dec. 13. The difference between bullish and bearish investors is essentially about timing of the oil market cycle. Related columns:- Hedge fund oil sales slow as balance of risks shifts (Reuters, Dec. 19)- Investors abandon bullish oil positions as recession nears (Reuters, Dec. 12)- Oil prices slump as receding price-cap threat unmasks worsening demand (Reuters, Dec. 8)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ Shale oil wraps up an underwhelming year, girds for lower growth
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Liz Hampton | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies U.S. gains stifled by inflation, aging wells, investor demandsWeaker shale oil production growth lies ahead for 2023Dec 30 (Reuters) - The shale oil patch this week closes the door on a disappointing year while bracing for weaker output gains in 2023, hamstrung by rising costs, dwindling reserves and pressures to hold down spending. He predicted 300,000 bpd to 400,000 bpd of increased shale production in 2023. Civitas grew volume about 4% year-over-year, and anticipates similar growth this coming year as it prioritizes free cash flow and balance sheet strength over growth. OLD WELLS PUMP LESSPioneer and other shale producers are experimenting with oil recovery techniques that could eventually squeeze more oil out of older wells. In the near-term, Sheffield warned oilfield inflation, which ran around 10% to 15% this year, will persist and limit production growth.

☆ The U.S. passed a historic climate deal this year — here's a recap of what's in the bill
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Emma Newburger | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

The IRA's provisions have major implications for clean energy and manufacturing businesses, climate startups and consumers in the coming years. As 2022 comes to a close, here's a look back at the key elements in the legislation that climate and clean energy advocates will be monitoring in 2023. Taking aim at methane gas emissionsSome pumpjacks operate while others stand idle in the Belridge oil field near McKittrick, California. Mario Tama | Getty ImagesThe package imposes a tax on energy producers that exceed a certain level of methane gas emissions. And the bill has a hydrogen production tax credit, which provides hydrogen producers with a credit based on the climate attributes of their production methods.

The S&P 500 was 0.7% lower Friday, leaving it down 19.9% for the year. Corporate bonds had a miserable 2022, too: The return on bonds issued by S&P 500 companies was -14.2% this year. The Bloomberg Aggregate US Bond Index had its worst year since the index’s inception in 1977, according to FactSet. Excluding energy, S&P 500 earnings would fall 1.8% this year, Butters predicted. Occidental Petroleum has been the biggest gainer of the year in the S&P 500, up 122% year-to-date.

☆ Premarket stocks: Wall Street's biggest winners and losers in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The S&P 500 is down nearly 20% and with two trading days left in the year, investors’ hopes of a miraculous recovery have been dashed. The energy sector has so far returned more than 60% this year, significantly outperforming every other S&P 500 sector. Occidental Petroleum has been the biggest gainer of the year in the S&P 500, up 122% year-to-date. The energy sector reported the highest year-over-year earnings growth of all 11 sectors, at 137.3%. Elon Musk’s Tesla (TSLA) is also down about 70%, making the auto tech company the third worst performer this year.

LONDON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - India has been one of the strongest sources of global energy consumption growth in 2022 as the country's economy rebounded from the disruption and lockdowns caused by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Generation has rebounded so fast it is now less than 1.5% below the pre-pandemic trend for 2015-2019, based on data from India's Central Electricity Authority. Chartbook: India energy consumptionManufacturing production has been gradually declining since the second quarter, based on estimates published by the Reserve Bank of India. As the country's external environment becomes increasingly adverse, energy consumption is likely to grow much more slowly in 2023. Related columns:- India's electricity shortage erased by renewables growth(Reuters, Nov. 25)- Dollar shock threatens global economy (Reuters, Sept. 29)- India's coal and electricity supplies are more comfortable this autumn (Reuters, Sept. 28)- John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

The combined position had been reduced to 343 million barrels (11th percentile for all weeks since 2013), down from 579 million barrels (47th percentile) five weeks earlier. In the most recent week, there were continued sales of Brent (-6 million barrels), U.S. diesel (-7 million) and U.S. gasoline (-5 million) and no change in European gas oil. Chartbook: CFTC and ICE commitments of tradersFrom a fundamental perspective, the outlook for oil prices remains mixed. Production cuts by OPEC+, sluggish output growth from U.S. shale, and the eventual reopening of China’s economy are bullish for oil prices. From a positioning perspective, however, the balance of risks has clearly tilted towards the upside, especially in crude oil.

Chartbook: Northwest Europe gas consumptionHigh gas and electricity prices and calls for urgent energy conservation have had only a modest impact on the behaviour of residential and commercial users. If Europe has averted a gas crisis this winter, the principal reason has been an unusually mild start to the heating season, with high prices playing a secondary role and conservation mandates a decidedly tertiary one. ¹ The Northwest Europe mega-region also includes northern France and southeastern England but data on sub-national gas consumption is not available in real time. Related columns:- Germany’s gas stocks should hold out despite inventory draw (Reuters, December 15)- Europe’s gas stocks comfortable despite cold snap (Reuters, December 14)- Europe on course to end winter with plenty of gas (Reuters, November 28)- Europe’s gas storage peaks after record refill season (Reuters, November 18)- Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, October 4)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

The rapid drawdown in gas inventories for space heating, industrial processes and power generation shows the system functioning as intended. Gas stocks were +56 TWh (+21% or 1.39 standard deviations) above the ten-year seasonal average for 2012-2021. The largest seasonal depletion was -148 TWh (winter 2018/19) while the smallest was just -34 TWh (winter 2014/15). Related columns:- Europe’s gas stocks comfortable despite cold snap (Reuters, December 14)- Europe on course to end winter with plenty of gas (Reuters, November 28)- Europe’s gas storage peaks after record refill season (Reuters, November 18)- Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, October 4)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Europe’s gas inventories remain comfortable despite much colder-than-normal temperatures across the northern part of the region which have boosted heating demand significantly since the start of December. Inventories in the European Union and United Kingdom (EU28) totalled 987 terawatt-hours (TWh) on December 12, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (“Aggregated gas storage inventory”, GIE, December 14). Chartbook: Europe gas inventoriesExceptionally high prices coupled with conservation measures enacted following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have significantly changed consumption patterns. Related columns:- Europe on course to end winter with plenty of gas (Reuters, Nov. 28)- Europe’s gas storage peaks after record refill season (Reuters, Nov. 18)- Europe’s gas prices retreat as storage almost full (Reuters, Oct. 13)- Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, Oct. 4)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

The combined position has been cut to just 358 million barrels (12th percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from 579 million barrels (47th percentile) on Nov. 8. Fund managers sold NYMEX and ICE WTI (-5 million barrels), Brent (-4 million), U.S. gasoline (-5 million), U.S. diesel (-11 million) and European gas oil (-5 million). The net position in U.S. diesel and European gas oil was cut to 49 million barrels (41st percentile) from 75 million barrels (62nd percentile) on Nov. 8. Bullish long positions outnumbered bearish short ones by a ratio of 2.92:1 (52nd percentile) down from 5.40:1 (81st percentile) four weeks earlier. The extremely low level of hedge fund positions in crude has created upside price risk if and when managers attempt to rebuild bullish positions.

U.S. distillate fuel oil stocks increased by six million barrels over the seven days ending on Dec. 2, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Distillate inventories have risen by a total of 13 million barrels over the eight weeks since Oct. 7 (“Weekly petroleum status report”, EIA, Dec. 7). Distillate inventories have accumulated at a time of year when they would normally be depleting, a signal the market balance has shifted decisively. Stocks depleted by an average of six million barrels over the same period in the ten years before the COVID-19 pandemic. Net distillate exports have slowed to around 1.0 million bpd from 1.4 million bpd in September, implying foreign consumption also slackened.

UNMASKINGGlobal oil and energy consumption have been falling since the third quarter under the impact of exceptionally high prices and a slowing economy. But the impact was initially masked by concerns about the planned introduction of the price cap on Russia's crude and refined products exports. Traders anticipated the price cap and Russia's response would cut production by more than the economic slowdown cut consumption. LESSONS FROM 2014The recent slump in oil prices shares some, though not all, characteristics with the slump occurring in the third quarter of 2014 ("A brief history of the oil crash", Reuters, January 2015). It is also probable recent hedge fund liquidation has exaggerated the recent fall in oil prices creating some headroom for a short-term rebound; positions are now unusually low.

Extreme backwardation implied traders expected the balance to remain tight, with a further drawdown of already depleted inventories, and more upward pressure on oil prices. In late November, after consultations with traders, the U.S. Treasury published regulations signalling a relatively relaxed approach to enforcement (“Guidance on implementation of price cap policy”, OFAC, Nov. 22). Following last-minute discussions, on Dec. 2 the cap was set at $60, with a commitment to review it by mid- January 2023 and every two months thereafter (“G7 agrees oil price cap”, European Commission, Dec. 3). SETTING THE PRICE CAP LEVELIn setting a price cap for Russia’s crude and products, U.S. and EU officials have been confronted by a menu of policy options and other considerations. Related columns:- Investors dumped Brent in anticipation of relaxed oil price cap (Reuters, Dec. 5)- Global recession a bigger risk to Russia’s oil revenue than price cap (Reuters, Nov. 11)- Recession would make tough oil sanctions on Russia more likely (Reuters, July 14)- Oil market confronts U.S. and EU policymakers with unpalatable choices (Reuters, June 29)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ China's LONGi denies circumventing U.S. tariffs on solar panels
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Chinese solar panel maker LONGi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd (601012.SS) said on Monday it will provide evidence to show it is complying with U.S. laws after the U.S. Department of Commerce found it to be circumventing tariffs. The United States will impose new duties on imports from LONGi and three other Chinese solar panel makers, trade officials said on Friday, after an investigation found in a preliminary determination issued last week they were trying to dodge tariffs by finishing products in Southeast Asian countries. During this period, we will actively provide evidence that shows we are compliant with U.S. trade law and not circumventing," LONGi said in a statement sent to Reuters. BYD Co Ltd (002594.SZ), Trina Solar Co Ltd(688599.SS) and Canadian Solar Inc (CSIQ.O), also named in the preliminary determination, did not immediately respond to requests for comment. LONGi said it was working on increasing the strategic layout of its global operations, including improving its manufacturing and supply chain for the U.S. market.

LONDON, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Portfolio investors sold petroleum heavily for the third week running as fears about disruption to crude oil flows from the price cap on Russia’s exports receded. Sales over the three most recent weeks totalled 190 million barrels, more than reversing the 169 million barrels purchased over the previous six weeks in October and early November. In the latest week, sales were again concentrated in crude (-40 million barrels), especially Brent (-39 million), with only insignificant changes in other contracts. Fears the price cap would reduce global crude supplies appear to have prompted a wave of buying in both physical and paper markets throughout late September and early October. With the risk from the price cap removed, for now investors’ attention has returned to the weak outlook for the economy and oil consumption in 2023.

Chartbook: U.S. crude oil productionOilfield services company Baker Hughes says the number of rigs drilling for oil has risen by 455 in 119 weeks from its post-pandemic low in August 2020, an average of 3.9 per week. Completion rates rather than drilling rates provide a more reliable guide to future trends in production in the short term. The number of new oil and gas wells completed has been broadly stable just below 1,000 per month since March 2022 (“Drilling productivity report”, EIA, Nov. 14). Unless competition rates accelerate, the number of rigs drilling for oil and gas is likely to plateau around current levels, and oil production grow much more slowly in 2023. Related columns:- U.S. oil drilling rises in response to higher prices (Reuters, Feb. 25)- U.S. oil drilling likely to accelerate in 2022 (Reuters, Nov. 17, 2021)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

☆ U.S. to expand solar panel tariffs after probe finds Chinese evasion
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Nichola Groom | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The announcement was welcomed by Auxin Solar, a small U.S. solar panel maker that requested the Commerce investigation in February. Producers including New East Solar, Hanwha Q CELLS, Jinko Solar (JKS.N) and Boviet Solar were found not to be dodging the tariffs, Commerce said. "The only good news here is that Commerce didn't target all imports from the subject countries," Abigail Ross Hopper, president of solar trade group the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA), said in an emailed statement. Buyers of solar panels for both large utility projects and residential rooftops say new tariffs will worsen what is already a difficult market for accessing solar energy equipment. The mere threat of new tariffs on solar imports also contributed to a slowdown in project development this year, the industry has said.

In real terms, monthly average prices have been between the 76th and the 98th percentile for all months since the turn of the century. Chartbook: U.S. distillate suppliedMANUFACTURING SLOWSMost distillates are used in freight transportation, manufacturing, construction, farming, mining, and in oil and gas production. Distillate consumption is therefore highly sensitive to changes in the business cycle, especially the manufacturing and freight sectors. The slowdown in distillate consumption has been close to what would be expected based on the deceleration in manufacturing. Reduced distillate use would be consistent with an unusual increase in distillate fuel oil inventories reported over the last seven weeks in weekly surveys conducted by the EIA.

Sales over the two most recent weeks totalled 149 million barrels, the fastest rate since early March, in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Similar to the week before, last week’s selling was concentrated in crude (-89 million barrels), specifically in Brent (-71 million barrels). Two-week crude sales totalled 137 million barrels, with Brent totalling 100 million barrels, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The number of crude positions, WTI as well as Brent, fell to just 306 million barrels (9th percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from 443 million barrels (40th percentile) on Nov. 8. The ratio of bullish long positions to bearish short ones fell to 3.28:1 (27th percentile) from 5.36:1 (62nd percentile) two weeks earlier.

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Europe's gas inventories are on course to end the winter of 2022/23 at one of the highest levels on record - if prices stay high and provided pipeline deliveries from Russia continue. Exceptionally high prices, energy conservation, and warmer-than-normal temperatures since the middle of October have combined to cut consumption and attract large volumes of imported LNG. Depletions have ranged from as much as -712 TWh in the winter of 2018/19 to as little as -311 TWh in the winter of 2014/15. Related columns:- Europe's gas storage peaks after record refill season (Reuters, Nov. 18)- Europe's gas prices retreat as storage almost full (Reuters, Oct. 13)- Mission accomplished? Europe fills gas storage ahead of schedule (Reuters, Oct. 4)- Europe tops up gas stocks, but winter demand cuts essential (Reuters, Sept. 7)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

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