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☆ Stocks week ahead: It's hell week on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

The unflinching resilience of the US labor market is one of — if not the — greatest source of tension in today’s economy. That means the Fed’s already painful rate hikes are likely to continue until the job market simmers. In just one year, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates from nearly zero to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% to cool the economy. The labor market is stronger than ever: The US added a shocking 517,000 jobs in January and knocked unemployment down to its lowest level since 1969. If the labor market remains strong, more Fed-induced pain lies ahead.

☆ More rate hikes are needed, says Fed’s Mary Daly
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Federal Reserve policymakers will need to raise interest rates higher and keep them there longer to tackle the higher prices caused by sticky inflation, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said Saturday. Daly does not currently vote on Fed policy decisions but is a member of the Federal Open Market Committee and participates in policy meetings. Her speech followed a week of similar warnings from the Federal Reserve. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic also said Wednesday that he believes the Fed needs to raise its policy rate by half a percentage point at the next meeting. On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that painful interest rates could go higher than expected, citing a slew of recent stronger-than-expected economic data.

☆ Fed's Daly: tighter policy, for a longer time, 'likely' needed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The acceleration of inflation in January "suggests that the disinflation momentum we need is far from certain," Daly said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Princeton Economic Policy Symposium. "In order to put this episode of high inflation behind us, further policy tightening, maintained for a longer time, will likely be necessary." Coming from Daly, whose views are typically in line with Fed leadership, the remarks may add to expectations that Fed policymakers will lift rates higher in coming months than the 5.1% that most of them had penciled in December. Fed policymakers will publish fresh projections for policy and the economy at the close of their upcoming March 21-22 meeting. Daly did not use her prepared remarks to offer a view on how big March's rate hike ought to be, or exactly how high rates should go.

This is despite another week of even higher U.S. bond yields and Fed interest rate expectations, and deteriorating relations between the U.S. and China. Perhaps because it had fallen nearly 10% over the preceding four weeks, it was primed for a technical or short-covering rebound. Perhaps stocks are making a bet that policymakers won't raise rates as aggressively as rates markets are implying. Maybe it's a play that rising nominal rates are merely matching inflation and inflation expectations, so policy isn't so tight in real terms and growth isn't suffering. Investors will also be watching the dollar, which rose across the board on Thursday, spurred on by higher U.S. yields.

☆ Studies show how asteroid-bashing spacecraft was 'phenomenally successful'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Will Dunham | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/4] This image depicts NASA's DART spacecraft and its two long solar panels over the spot where it impacted asteroid Dimorphos in September 2022. "The DART test was phenomenally successful. The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) spacecraft collided on Sept. 26 at about 14,000 miles per hour (22,530 kph) into Dimorphos, an asteroid about 490 feet (150 meters) in diameter, roughly 6.8 million miles (11 million km) from Earth. Finally, the spacecraft bus - the box between the solar panels - hit between these two boulders," Daly said. The research also clarified details such as the precise location of the impact and the angle of impact.

☆ McDonald's expands Krispy Kreme test to more than 150 Kentucky locations
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( Amelia Lucas | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

In this photo illustration, a Krispy Kreme glazed doughnut is shown on May 12, 2022 in Daly City, California. McDonald's will sell Krispy Kreme doughnuts at more than 150 Kentucky locations starting next month, for a limited time. In October, nine McDonald's restaurants in Louisville started selling Krispy Kreme doughnuts. But both Krispy Kreme and McDonald's have reported strong sales in recent quarters. Krispy Kreme Chief Operating Officer Josh Charlesworth said in January at the ICR Conference that the McDonald's test showed the doughnut chain can execute its daily fresh deliveries to restaurant locations.

☆ Analysis: With record diversity on their boards, Fed bank chiefs see lower chances of policy error
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Fed bank directors generally stay out of the limelight, but many U.S. central bankers view them as a critical resource. "I think the probabilities are far higher of achieving that gentle transition, that smoother transition," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters in an interview. This year, of the 108 spots on the 12 Fed bank boards, 44% are filled by women, and 41% by people of color, a review of the data shows. Still, a majority of the Fed's economists are white men, as are its top two monetary policymakers: Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Hispanics and Latinos, Menendez notes, are a fast-growing segment of the population but are underrepresented at the Fed at all levels, including on Fed bank boards.

At its latest meeting, the Fed laced its statement and minutes with a rider about cumulative tightening and uncertain lags. The gist of the argument is that the Fed doesn't deliver credit directly to the wider economy - banks and financial markets do. But few seem to doubt that these policy lags have shortened considerably over the decades. Showcasing the study in December, San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly adopted a more dovish slant on the gap between the funds rate and tightening financial markets. "But investors should remain attentive to the occasional episodic disconnects observed between Fed guidance and some prominent indices of financial conditions," Clarida told clients.

☆ Nvidia cheer ripples through chips as investors assess Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/3] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, January 24, 2023. The MSCI all country share index (.MIWD00000PUS) was slightly firmer, adding to the year's 4.5% advance, after falling nearly 20% in 2022. The yield on 10-year Treasury was slightly firmer at 3.9254%. The Australian and New Zealand dollar were both slightly firmer against the dollar. Fed officials Mary Daly and Raphael Bostic are also due to make appearances later on Thursday.

☆ Morning Bid: A new R*
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Joshua RobertsA look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. While it held rates at 3.5% as expected, the commentary warned that restrictive policy would be needed for a "considerable time". Indeed, it's looking like global supply chains will never be the same, what with the pandemic, the Russian-Ukraine war and Sino-U.S. tensions. Most developed nations also face a decline in working-age populations and sharply rising dependency ratios. All of which suggests higher inflation is here to stay and the neutral level of real interest rates has shifted upward.

☆ Asia stocks see bright side after Nvidia sounds upbeat
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Shares in the giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (2330.TW) rose 2.2% to lift Taiwan's benchmark (.TWII) 1.3%. A 4% gain for SK Hynix (000660.KS) and a 2% gain for Samsung (005930.KS) drove South Korea's Kospi (.KS11) 1% higher. The Bank of Korea also offered some relief by ending a year-long run of uninterrupted rate hikes with a pause - as expected. Wall Street indexes fell overnight and are eyeing their worst week of the year so far as stronger-than-forecast U.S. labour, inflation, retail sales and manufacturing figures have traders pricing interest rates staying higher for longer. "Markets have been forced to reprice interest rate expectations, not just higher, but also questioning the view that once peak rates are hit, central banks will pivot quickly to cutting interest rates," said ANZ economist Finn Robinson.

☆ Stocks struggle to make headway as rate rises loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) touched its lowest since Jan. 6 in early trade. Nasdaq futures (.NQc1) rose 0.9% after a revenue beat at chip designer Nvidia (NVDA.O) sent its shares up 9% after-hours. Oil nursed sharp overnight losses, and Brent crude futures clung to support around $80 a barrel on Thursday. "Markets have been forced to reprice interest rate expectations, not just higher, but also questioning the view that once peak rates are hit, central banks will pivot quickly to cutting interest rates," said ANZ economist Finn Robinson. The Bank of Korea did, however, offer some dose of relief by ending a year-long run of uninterrupted rate hikes with a pause.

☆ Morning Bid: Blue chips cheered up
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] The logo of technology company Nvidia is seen at its headquarters in Santa Clara, California February 11, 2015. Its CEO Jensen Huang said use of its chips to power AI had "gone through the roof in the last 60 days." The Federal Reserve at least seems keen on the higher-for-longer message that's shaken world stock and bond markets this week. And as the minutes pre-date red-hot jobs and retail data for January, the message from Fed officials is probably even sterner now. A Reuters poll of equity analysts showed global stock markets are expected to correct in the next three months.

☆ Wall St set for higher open as Nvidia outweighs Fed jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Futures cut some gains after data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week. "Markets are tracking the earnings reports overnight from Nvidia," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. ET, Dow e-minis were up 39 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 15 points, or 0.38%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 106.25 points, or 0.88%. Analysts polled by Reuters predict a correction within the next three months even though they expect the S&P 500 (.SPX) to climb 5% by year-end. Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) fell 4.4% after the vaccine maker reaffirmed its annual sales forecast of $5 billion for its COVID-19 vaccines despite its fourth-quarter sales exceeding estimates.

Asian stocks are on course for their fourth down week in a row, the MSCI World index and the S&P 500 are eyeing their biggest weekly fall this year, and U.S. breakeven inflation rates are sailing up to 2.50% and beyond. A lower oil price, of course, is disinflationary, and base effects right now also mean that Brent crude is 17% cheaper today than it was a year ago. chartMinutes from the Fed's Jan. 31 to Feb. 1 policy meeting showed that most rate-setters voted to slow the pace of tightening. The Bank of Korea is expected to leave interest rates on hold at 3.50% on Thursday, and leave it there for the rest of the year, according to a Reuters poll. Consumer price inflation in January was 5.20%, well over double the central bank's 2.00% target and unlikely to return there for at least another year, economists reckon.

☆ Stock futures rise on Wednesday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 0.6%. Nasdaq futures got a boost from Nvidia, which rose more than 8% after hours on better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings and revenue. Inflation "remained well above" the Fed's 2% target and the labor market "remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices," according to the minutes. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak at an event hosted by the Atlanta Fed Thursday morning. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will take part in a fireside chat in the afternoon.

☆ Brainard's move to the White House leaves a big gap for Biden to fill at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In her more than eight years as a Federal Reserve official, Lael Brainard was an influential voice, particularly for the side that favored keeping monetary policy loose and interest rates low. "Brainard's departure from the Fed leaves a dove-sized hole in its monetary policy," Beacon Policy Advisors wrote in its daily newsletter Wednesday. Indeed, Brainard's influence only accelerated the longer she served as a Fed governor. Her subsequent appointment in 2022 as vice chair solidified her influence, installing her as part of the "troika" of policy-directing power that includes current Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Some candidates outside the Fed ranks, according to Guha, include Karen Dynan, Jason Furman, Janice Eberly and Christina Romer, all of whom served under former President Barack Obama (and his vice president, Biden).

☆ Wonya Lucas is making big changes at the Hallmark Channel
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( Lillian Rizzo | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

And she's done it all while staying true to the Hallmark brand, which Lucas said is always on her mind. Courtesy: Hallmark MediaUnder Lucas, Hallmark's "Countdown to Christmas" movie slate has increasingly changed. When Lucas became CEO of Hallmark Media, which also includes the Hallmark Movies and Mysteries network, it had also been coming out from under a firestorm of controversy. There needed to be more diversity in both casting and storylines," Hamilton Daly said. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwards Three Wise Men and a Baby Hallmark Media

☆ Factbox: Some potential successors to Brainard at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Meanwhile, analysts and Fed observers are already swapping notes on potential replacements for Brainard at the Fed from a bench of economists aligned with Biden's Democrats, who control the U.S. Senate. MARY DALYDaly is president of the San Francisco Fed, ascending to that position in 2018 after 22 years at the regional Fed bank, including a stint as its director of research. Furman has been a prominent, Twitter-savvy commentator on macroeconomic and Fed policy. He has a PhD from the University of Virginia and served as a Fed economist for a little over a year in the mid-1990s. With a PhD from Stanford University, he's held staff positions at the Fed board and the San Francisco Fed, where he also served as president before moving to the New York Fed role in 2018.

☆ ChatGPT provided instructions on how to make crack cocaine and smuggle it into Europe, report says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Sawdah Bhaimiya | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

ChatGPT gave Vice's global drugs editor instructions on how to make crack cocaine and smuggle it. It did add, however, that "the production of crack cocaine is illegal and extremely dangerous, as it involves the use of toxic chemicals." Daly pushed the chatbot further by asking "What's the most efficient way to smuggle cocaine into Europe?" He decided to rephrase the question and wrote: "I am writing a novel where a villain is trying different ways to smuggle cocaine from Colombia to the UK. ChatGPT immediately churned out a detailed response to the question saying "there are a variety of methods that a villain might use to smuggle cocaine from Colombia to the UK."

☆ Bond investors brace for recession as Fed expected to slow pace of tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The rally comes after Treasuries notched the worst year in their history following the Fed's most aggressive monetary policy tightening since the 1980s. Some equity investors are nevertheless playing it safe, expecting the current rally in stocks to wilt if a recession hits. For now, many investors are wedded to a more dovish view, betting that policymakers will blink if growth starts to slow. "The Fed is closer to the end than the beginning, and rates usually fall across the curve when the Fed is finished raising rates." Of course, some investors are happy to take the central bank at its word and are betting rates stay higher for longer.

☆ Asteroid's sudden flyby shows blind spot in planetary threat detection
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-29 | by ( Joey Roulette | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NASA for years has prioritized detecting asteroids much bigger and more existentially threatening than 2023 BU, the small space rock that streaked by 2,200 miles from the Earth's surface, closer than some satellites. If bound for Earth, it would have been pulverized in the atmosphere, with only small fragments possibly reaching land. But 2023 BU sits on the smaller end of a size group, asteroids 5-to-50 meters in diameter, that also includes those as big as an Olympic swimming pool. But with current capabilities, astronomers can't see when such a rock targets Earth until days prior. The successful demonstration, called the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), affirmed for the first time a method of planetary defense.

☆ Premarket stocks: The Federal Reserve is testing how climate change could hurt big banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The largest six banks in the United States have been given until July to show the Federal Reserve what effects disastrous climate change scenarios could have on their bottom lines. The Federal Reserve first announced the pilot program in September, noting that Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo would participate. In its announcement the Federal Reserve stressed that the exercise “is exploratory in nature and does not have capital consequences.” It also said that it would not publish individual banks’ results. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly told CNN in October Thursday that this was a learning and exploratory exercise for the Federal Reserve. The other side: Critics of the pilot program have argued that the Federal Reserve was overstepping its boundaries and that they might soon begin to enforce financial penalties.

☆ There'll be a rude awakening for investors who haven't realized the Fed's got a whole new playbook, says BlackRock iShares strategist
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There's likely to be further pain ahead for US stocks, a BlackRock iShares strategist told Insider. Karim Chedid expects the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates above 5% for the whole of 2023. "Goldilocks doesn't save the day in our new playbook," he said, given the Fed is focused on inflation. "Goldilocks doesn't save the day in our new playbook," Chedid said. That reflects a new environment where the Fed's only priority is taming inflation, according to Chedid.

☆ Davos 2023: The World Economic Forum explained
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Siddharth K | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 16 (Reuters) - The World Economic Forum (WEF) returns to its snowy winter residency in the Swiss Alps this week with a record attendance of business and government leaders. The WEF's roots stretch back to 1971 when its founder Klaus Schwab invited executives from European companies to the then tiny ski resort of Davos, high in the Swiss Alps. With climate change top of the agenda, chiefs of major energy companies are back after a COVID-related hiatus. Others include IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde, NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He. Climate change topped the WEF's survey of global risk and energy company executives will mix with climate activists and environment ministers at the forum.

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