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☆ Fed's Mester wants more progress on inflation before ending interest rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Monday inflation will need to show more signs of progress before she's ready to stop advocating for interest rate increases. While acknowledging that recent data has been encouraging, the central bank official told CNBC that the progress is only a start. Markets rallied in recent days following data showing the rate of price increases slower than estimates, though inflation is still running at a 7.7% annual rate as gauged by the consumer price index. In recent days, the Fed has faced some criticism that its focus on inflation could cause unnecessary damage to the economy. Mester said the Fed is trying to bring down inflation "as painlessly as possible."

☆ Here's why the Fed may have won already but is still acting like nothing has improved
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-20 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

We can bet that they will be one-upping each other about how high they want to take fed funds, the overnight bank lending rate. They seem to want to ignore anything that's succeeded since the Fed's rate increase cycle began back in March. I think that, again, if the Fed were to wait through Christmas they would see the layoffs and the corporate failures. One thing that's for certain, the buyers of the 2-year may be more sensitive to the data than the Fed. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Markets are watching for more clues on Fed hikes and the economy in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Investors may be a bit more cautious in the week ahead, with stocks seeking direction in quiet trading and the bond market's warnings about recession getting louder. "That's going to cause its own pressure on markets because markets never look through a profit recession." In the past week, Fed officials maintained their tough tone and some even sounded more hawkish. A rallying stock market is a sign of looser financial conditions. "The stock market is complicating the Fed's objective," said Lyngen.

☆ Morning Bid: Bear Hunt
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Long-term sovereign bond yields have been falling sharply all week in advance of finance minister Jeremy Hunt's new budget, dragged down largely by U.S. disinflation hopes. UK 10- and 30-year gilt yields outperformed, however, dropping to their lowest since early September before backing up slightly on Thursday. U.S. housing starts numbers out later will give another glimpse at the state of the ailing property sector. Reverberations continued around the world from this month's latest implosion in the crypto universe and the failure of the FTX exchange. Major crypto player Genesis Global Capital suspended customer redemptions in its lending business on Wednesday, citing the FTX collapse.

☆ Stock market rally will be put to test in week ahead, after yields fall and tech surges
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

This week, bond yields also came off their highs and were sharply lower, paving the way for gains in tech and growth shares. They include Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari to name a few. Hogan said that group includes Bullard, Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Many strategists are calling the move higher a bear market rally, and some expect it will fizzle in December while others say it could continue into the new year. Friday Earnings: JD.com, Foot Locker, Buckle 8:40 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins 10:00 a.m.

☆ Dollar slides, CPI data suggests Fed could slow pace of rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"Inflation is clearly moving in the right direction, and that keeps a more hawkish Fed at bay," he said. The spike higher in the yen versus the dollar stirred speculation the Bank of Japan intervened, which analysts doubted. Fed funds futures priced in a drop in expectations for the U.S. central bank's peak target rate, which fell below 5%. The likelihood of a 50-basis-point rate hike by the Fed instead of a 75-basis-point increase in December rose to 71.5%. CPI rose 7.7% in October on a year-over-year basis, down from 8.2% in the prior month, as headline inflation fell below 8% for the first time since February.

☆ Fed officials welcome inflation news but still see tighter policy ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve officials welcomed Thursday's news showing that inflation rose less than expected last month, and they noted that interest rate increases could slow ahead. But they also cautioned against getting too excited by the data, noting that prices are still far too high. The data sent a possible signal that while inflation is still running high, price increases may have leveled off and could soon head lower. Likewise, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said Thursday's report "suggests some easing in overall and core inflation," though she noted that the trend is still "unacceptably high." Kansas City Fed President Esther George noted that even with the lower monthly gain, inflation is still "uncomfortably close" to the 41-year annual high hit in the summer.

☆ Morning Bid: Polls and prices
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Chinese stocks continued last week's tentative recovery, however, despite officials throwing cold water on any early end to draconian COVID lockdown policies. Some correction of the market's severe underperformance this year was about the only cogent reason given for the ongoing stock bounce. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB board member Fabio Panetta both speak. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Jim Cramer's week ahead: Get ready to 'pounce' when the market is oversold
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Monday: BioNTech, Take-Two InteractiveBioNTechQ3 2022 earnings release at 5 a.m. AMC EntertainmentQ3 2022 earnings release at 4:15 p.m. ETProjected loss: $1.14 per shareProjected revenue: $871 millionCramer said that his Charitable Trust is sticking with the stock. ETProjected loss: 29 cents per shareProjected revenue: $1.45 billionMatterportQ3 2022 earnings release after the close; conference call at 4:30 p.m. ToastQ3 2022 earnings release at 4:05 p.m.

☆ Midterms could be a positive catalyst for stocks as investors await next big inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

There are two big hurdles for markets in the week ahead - another potentially hot consumer inflation report and the Congressional midterm elections. "100% of the time, the S & P 500 has been up 12 months after the midterm election." Midterm rallies Stocks tend to gain in the final months of midterm election years, and strategists have been expecting the market to move higher. CFRA Chief Market Strategist Sam Stovall said even when interest rates are climbing, the midterm election has been a catalyst for stocks. He examined market performance in other midterm election years when interest rates were going up.

☆ Truss’s exit highlights America’s free pass
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

While British Prime Minister Liz Truss’s tax proposals cut her time in office short, U.S. fiscal policy for years hasn’t been that much different. If it weren’t for the greenback’s status as the world’s reserve currency, the laws of economics would apply to America, too. Her ideological mentors in America have long argued that such tax cuts pay for themselves, and they are nothing new stateside. Still at least by some measures, the United States looks worse than Truss’s country. While Truss’s policy experiment wasn’t given any rope, the United States seems to know no failure.

☆ An often-overlooked economic measure is signaling serious trouble ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

However, Fed officials are stressing that they're far from finished when it comes to raising rates. "When this basket is signaling the weakness that it's showing, what the Fed typically does is not raise rates. But in this case, it's not only raising rates aggressively, but with a commitment to continue raising rates aggressively." In addition to the typical headline metrics such as the consumer price index and the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, the Cleveland Fed's "sticky price" CPI rose 8.5% on an annualized basis in September, up from 7.7% in August. The measure looks at items such as rent, the price of food away from home and recreation costs.

☆ Fed says firms gloomier on outlook, but inflation pressures easing
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThat was a notable contrast with the previous report from late summer that had concluded most Fed contacts then had "expected price pressures to persist at least through the end of the year." The view that inflation was moderating was accompanied by concerns over the economic cost of the Fed's rate hikes aimed at bringing those price pressures to heel: Demand was generally seen as softening. While underlying price pressures for goods have eased as supply chains heal, those of services, which tend to be stickier, continue to rise rapidly. Such signs could usher in a slower pace of rate hikes that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said will come "at some point." "Auto dealers reported flat or decreasing sales, noting that consumers had become wary of higher payments because of increased interest rates and higher vehicle prices," the Cleveland Fed reported.

☆ Analysis: As markets fret, Fed officials reject idea of rising financial stability risks
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Tobias Adrian, the International Monetary Fund's monetary and capital markets director,wrote on Tuesday that financial stability risks have risen "substantially." Fed officials have lifted the federal funds rate from near-zero levels in March to the current range of between 3.00% and 3.25%. Financial markets expect the Fed to raise the rate again by three-quarters of a percentage point at its next policy meeting in November. More rate rises are very likely after that, with central bankers penciling in a 4.6% federal funds rate by some point in 2023. Making financial conditions more restrictive is key to how monetary policy operates.

☆ Dollar at 24-year peak to yen as U.S. yields jump; sterling on the ropes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Japanese currency is particularly sensitive to the gap between U.S. and Japanese long-term bond yields. Japanese officials staged their first yen-buying intervention since 1998 on Sept. 22, when the yen tumbled to as low as 145.90 per dollar. Sterling slipped 0.13% to $1.0947, and earlier touched $1.09385, marking a fresh low since Sept. 29, following the comments by the BoE governor. Gilt yields soared on Tuesday, lifting yields in the U.S. and elsewhere. The New Zealand dollar was 0.21% lower at $0.5570, approaching the previous day's low of $0.5536, a level not visited since March 2020.

☆ Fed's net income turned negative in September, but it was no surprise
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

At the Sept. 20-21 meeting, a top New York Fed staffer said that "as expected, Federal Reserve net income turned negative in September." The minutes, which were released on Wednesday, also noted that central bank staff expect the Fed will face negative income for some time. The U.S. central bank earns income from bonds it owns and from services it provides to the financial sector. POLITICAL RISKFed officials have repeatedly stressed that central bank negative income is not like a conventional bank losing money. Fed watchers have said the biggest risk to the central bank from the negative income situation is political.

☆ Morning Bid: British bond burn
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

read moreAhead of the open, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were again flirting with the year's highs above 4% and global stocks (.MIWD00000PUS) were heading for new 2022 lows. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Tuesday:* U.S. Sept NFIB small business index. * International Monetary Fund publishes World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report at annual IMF/World Bank meeting in Washington. * Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, BoE deputy governor Jon Cunliffe, Swiss National Bank chief Thomas Jordan, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane, ECB board member Fabio Panetta, ECB bank supervisor Andrea Enria speak in United States. Long Gilt Yields SoarRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterBy Mike Dolan, editing by Ed Osmond, <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Morning Bid: What a fine mess
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oct 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeeverSometimes it's better to say nothing at all. The rupee is even deeper in the mire than the won - this week it hit a record low of 82.82 per dollar. Both the BoK and Reserve Bank of India have intervened in FX markets this year to support their exchange rates. They - and others - might have to do more, raising the risk that central banks offload more of their U.S. Treasuries. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with the Halftime Report Investment Committee
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with the Halftime Report Investment CommitteeCNBC's Investment Committee joins 'Halftime Report' to discuss the Cleveland Fed president's recent comments on inflation, if the Federal Reserve is likely to be fractured going forward, and more.

☆ Why the Federal Reserve won't be so quick to ease up on its fight against inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-04 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, speaks during a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., US, on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022. Federal Reserve officials this week gave their clearest signal yet that they're willing to tolerate a recession as the necessary trade-off for regaining control of inflation. That's monetary policy in this era of rapid inflation, swooning economic growth and heightened fears over what could go wrong. "But I would argue that they're still being overly optimistic at which the inflation rate is going to decelerate on its own." "Right now, the pain that I hear, the suffering that people are telling me what they're going through, is on the inflation side," she said during a talk at the Council on Foreign Relations.

☆ 3 takeaways from our daily meeting: Still oversold, picking at chip stocks, Club names in the news
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-30 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Market still oversold When to buy chip Quick mentions: TJX, DIS, ABBV 1. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ Jobless claims hit five-month low despite Fed's efforts to slow labor market
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Initial filings for unemployment claims fell last week to their lowest level in five months, a sign that the labor market is strengthening even as the Federal Reserve is trying to slow things down. The drop in claims was the lowest level since April 23 and the first time claims fell below 200,000 since early May. Continuing claims, which run a week behind, fell 29,000 to 1.347 million. Despite the efforts, there was more bad news Thursday for the Fed on the inflation front. However, the Cleveland Fed's own Inflation Nowcasting gauge shows little improvement on the inflation front in September even with a sharp decline in gas prices.

☆ Morning Bid: Dysfunction and intervention
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Amid all the chaos in British bond markets, the forced intervention by the Bank of England to buy gilts has given some investors a crumb of comfort about the limits of central bank tightening. Cold comfort maybe, but enough to drag bond yields back and lift stocks briefly around the world. While 30-year gilt yields steadied just below 4% on Thursday after their 100bp swoon the previous day, the pound was sliding again and UK midcap stocks dropped. read moreEasing inflation in Spain was better news read more . Market leader Inditex (ITX.MC), the owner of Zara, slipped 2.2%, while the wider STOXX retailers index <.SXRP> slid 4.3%.

☆ European markets head for higher open after choppy start to the week
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

U.S. inflation is "unacceptably high" and uncertainties make monetary policy decisions "not trivial," said Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester in prepared remarks at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "When there is uncertainty, it can be better for policymakers to act more aggressively," she said. "Aggressive and pre-emptive action can prevent the worst-case outcomes from actually coming about." "I will need to see several months of declines in the month-over-month readings," she said. "Wishful thinking cannot be a substitute for compelling evidence."

☆ Forget a soft landing. The market’s best hope is a ‘growth’ recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

It wants to achieve a soft landing — that Goldilocks ideal of cooling the economy enough to bring down prices but not enough to cause a recession. The new aim appears to be for a so-called growth recession: A prolonged period of meager growth and rising unemployment. The pain is sharper and lasts longer than that of a soft landing, but a “growth” recession doesn’t pull the entire economy into contraction the way a proper recession would. It looks like a recession, and feels like a recession, but it isn’t a recession — at least not officially. A growth recession is still painful.

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