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Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned on Friday "core inflation is not coming down like I thought it would." Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said he was "comfortable" with further rate increases given that inflation was still not on the path back to 2%. Markets now await comments from more Fed officials including Fed Vice Chair Michael Barr later in the day, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's semiannual monetary policy testimony to the U.S. House Financial Affairs Committee on Wednesday. Adding to the dour mood, China cut its benchmark lending rates by a smaller-than-expected 10 basis points. U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies including Alibaba Group , JD.com and PDD Holdings (PDD.O) fell between 1% and 6% in premarket trading.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, CMEGroup's, Waller, Barkin, Michael Barr, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Hogan, Daniel Zhang, Shristi Achar, Shubham Batra, Johann M, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: Therapeutics, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Richmond Fed, Traders, Microsoft, U.S . House Financial, Housing, Capitol, Riley, Fed, Alibaba, PDD Holdings, Dow e, Adobe Inc, Ford, General Motors, Tesla Inc, Dice Therapeutics, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Bengaluru
Bull market or fool's market? Investors say the latter
  + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +10 min
Mega-cap tech stocks that were battered by rising interest rates in 2022 have also seen a huge boost this year. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday held interest rates steady but indicated that it could hike rates twice more this year. Tech stocks’ record runApple shares closed at a record high on Thursday, creeping closer to reaching a $3 trillion market capitalization. The rally’s next testDespite some bullish signs in the market, investors say the math isn’t adding up to a sustained rally — especially considering a possible recession looms on the horizon. The central bank last Wednesday paused interest rates and indicated that it could raise rates two more times this year.
Persons: Dow, , Amanda Agati, Wednesday’s, Stocks, Joe Biden, Dan Ives, , ” Ives, Richard Steinberg, Jerome Powell, Agati, Sylvia Jablonski, Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, ” Waller, Sarah Henry, Henry, Here’s, Price, Refinitiv, Paul Eitelman, ” Eitelman Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Apple, Nasdaq, PNC Financial Services, Management, , Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Wedbush Securities, Microsoft, The Colony, Treasury, , Federal, Richmond Fed, Logan Capital Management, CPI, PPI, University of, Consumers, North America, Russell Investments, Wednesday, National Association of Realtors, Senate Locations: New York, what’s, Oslo
Qatar stock market ends lower, Egypt rises
  + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Md Manzer Hussain | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The Qatari Stock index (.QSI) dropped 0.1%, extending its losses to a second session with Gulf's biggest lender Qatar National Bank (QNBK.QA) falling 0.2% and Qatar Islamic Bank (QISB.QA) shedding 1.1%. Among the losers, Lesha Bank (QFBQ.QA) and Dukhan Bank (DUBK.QA) lost 1.1% and 1.3% respectively. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) added marginally as losses in energy and financial sectors countered gains in most of the sectors. Dr Sulaiman Al-Habib Medical Services (4013.SE) climbed 2.5% and Mouwasat Medical Services (4002.SE) surged 6.1%. However, Riyad Bank (1010.SE) and the world's largest Islamic bank by assets Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE) lost 2.1% and 0.7% respectively.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Dr Sulaiman Al, Md Manzer Hussain, David Evans Organizations: . Federal, United Arab, Qatar National Bank, Qatar Islamic Bank, Lesha Bank, Dukhan Bank, Habib Medical Services, Mouwasat Medical Services, Riyad Bank, Al Rajhi Bank, Co, International Finance Corporation, IFC, Thomson Locations: United States, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Saudi, El
[1/3] The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. "Core inflation is not coming down like I thought it would," Federal Reserve Gov. The U.S. economy was "still ripping along for the most part," he said, with the underlying pace of price increases "moving sideways." The Fed this week ended its run of 10 consecutive rate hikes when policymakers decided to keep the benchmark overnight interest rate in a range of from 5% to 5.25%. Though Fed chair Jerome Powell at a press conference Wednesday said no decision had been made about the upcoming July Fed meeting, investors and other analysts broadly expect the Fed to resume rate increases.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger WASHINGTON, Christopher Waller, Waller, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, I’m, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Howard Schneider, Chizu Nomiyama, Alistair Bell Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Federal, Silicon Valley Bank, Richmond Federal, Fed, Chicago Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Norway, Silicon, U.S, Maryland
A 1.7% decline in Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and a 1.3% dip in Amazon.com Inc (AMZN.O) weighed on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. S&P 500 fell 0.36% to end the session at 4,409.77 points. Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, eight declined, led by communication services (.SPLRCL), down 1%, followed by a 0.83% loss in information technology (.SPLRCT). Declining stocks outnumbered rising ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 1.4-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 24 new highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 112 new highs and 67 new lows.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Thomas Barkin, Sam Stovall, Morgan Stanley, Sruthi Shankar, Shristi, Noel Randewich, Vinay Dwivedi, Richard Chang Organizations: Microsoft, Nasdaq Adobe, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal, Richmond Fed, CFRA, University of Michigan's, Microsoft Corp, Inc, Nvidia Corp, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Adobe Inc, iRobot Corp, Micron Technology, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bengaluru, Oakland , California
"Financial stresses in the banking sector are a factor that my colleagues and I are closely watching as we determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy going forward," Waller said. But "it is still not clear that recent strains in thebanking sector materially intensified the tightening of lending conditions," beyond what the Fed was trying to do anyway through its interest rate policy, Waller said. His remarks are the first by a Fed official since policymakers this week held the U.S. interest rate steady. That notion was partly behind the Fed's decision this week to delay further rate increases for at least a single meeting, to take stock of how the financial system and the economy overall are faring. However the Fed is now broadly expected to approve another quarter point rate increase when officials meet on July 25-26.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Howard Schneider, Chizu Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, Fed, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Norway
For now, it's not a brighter economic picture or an exuberant earnings outlook pushing stocks higher. Another reason that some investors have come back to stocks is simply because the S & P 500 ended the week more than 23% above last October's low. "The next level of resistance is above 4,500 on the S & P. Historically, the market gains 14.5% on average between the 20% threshold level and the next decline of 5% or more. "Inflation peaked in June of last year and has been rapidly declining over the past 12 months. Trading the week after is often treacherous, Hirsch said, with the Dow Jones Industrials falling in 27 of the past 33 years and the S & P 500 down in 23 of 33 years.
Persons: it's, Sam Stovall, Clinton, Wells Fargo, Chris Harvey, Harvey, Jay Hatfield, Price, CarMax, Stovall, Jeffrey Hirsch, Hirsch, Dow Jones Industrials, York Fed's John Williams, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Lisa Cook, Adriana Kugler, Avid Bioservices, Patterson Cos, Christopher Waller, Michael Bloom, Fred Imbert, Alex Harring Organizations: Fed, CFRA, Microsoft, Infrastructure Capital Management, Consumer, PPI, FedEx, Darden, Dow, Housing, Financial, Enerpac, Avid, Banking, Accenture, Commercial Metals, P, PMI Locations: New York, York, Dublin
Washington, DC CNN —Americans are feeling upbeat about inflation and the economy, according to the University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey released Friday. Consumers’ inflation expectations for the year ahead retreated for the second straight month, declining to 3.3% early this month from 4.2% in May. That’s good news for the Federal Reserve, which closely watches sentiment surveys to gauge the expectations consumers and businesses have for price hikes. “The sharp drop of short-term consumer inflation expectations points to another slowdown in the June CPI report, which will be out before the Fed’s next decision,” wrote Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an analyst note. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his news conference this week that inflation expectations remain in check.
Persons: , Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, That’s, Christopher Waller Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan’s, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Norway
[1/3] The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah SilbigerWASHINGTON, June 16 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve officials struck a hawkish tone in their first comments since the central bank held the policy interest rate steady at its meeting this week but signaled that rate hikes will likely resume. "Core inflation is not coming down like I thought it would," Federal Reserve Gov. The U.S. economy was "still ripping along for the most part," he said, with the underlying pace of price increases "moving sideways." Though Fed chair Jerome Powell at a press conference Wednesday said no decision had been made about the upcoming July Fed meeting, investors and other analysts broadly expect the Fed to resume rate increases.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger WASHINGTON, Christopher Waller, Waller, Thomas Barkin, Barkin, I’m, Jerome Powell, Howard Schneider, Chizu Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, . Federal Reserve, Federal, Silicon Valley Bank, Richmond Federal, Fed, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Norway, Silicon, U.S, Maryland
The 2-year Treasury yield traded about 4.1 basis points higher at 4.686%. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year rate was flat on the day at 3.728%. Shorter-term Treasury yields rose on Friday as investors considered the path ahead for interest rates and awaited data that could provide hints about the state of the economy. Investors considered what could be next for interest rates and the economy after the Federal Reserve decided against another rate hike earlier this month, but indicated rates could still go higher later this year. Before this month's Fed policy meeting, many investors had been hoping for rate hikes to be halted as concerns about elevated rates dragging the U.S. economy into a recession had spread.
Persons: Louis, Jim Bullard, Christopher Waller Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Federal Reserve, Fed, Louis Fed Locations: Michigan
Washington, DC CNN —The dust has barely settled on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its aggressive rate-hiking campaign — but in public appearances Friday, central bank officials have a clear message: Keep hiking. In one of the first speeches, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that additional rate increases are necessary to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed’s decision to restart hikes depends on what data show in the coming weeks and months. It is the job of bank leaders to deal with interest rate risk and nearly all bank leaders have done exactly that,” Waller said. A representative of the event said the conference wasn’t being recorded and that only registrants who paid a fee were able to attend.
Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, , Gregory Daco, Ernst & Young, ” Powell, Waller, , Michael Gapen, Gapen, they’re, Louis President James Bullard, Thomas Barkin Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Norges Bank, International Monetary Fund, Ernst &, Bank, BofA Global Research, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Maryland Government Finance, Association Locations: Washington, Oslo, Norway,
The market isn't buying the Fed's tough talk on interest rates
  + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Try as the Federal Reserve did Wednesday to send the message that multiple interest rate hikes are ahead, the market wasn't buying it. Indeed, market pricing reflected a high level of skepticism that the Fed is going to do much more in terms of policy tightening. That came even though 12 of the 18 FOMC members said they envision rate hikes totaling 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, by the end of 2023. "Fed Funds Futures aren't buying to [Wednesday's] FOMC SEP guidance of 2 more rate hikes this year," wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Powell's news conference after the decision to skip a rate hike at this week's meeting went in multiple directions.
Persons: Quincy Krosby, Jerome, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, that's, Matthew Luzzetti, Christopher Waller, James Bullard Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, Dow Jones Industrial, DataTrek, Empire, Manufacturing Survey, Deutsche Bank, Louis Locations: St
The Federal Reserve is set to announce a critical policy decision today — hike (possibly), pause (likely), or cut (probably not). The Fed has made 10 consecutive rate hikes leading up to today, making for one of its most aggressive tightening campaigns ever. Tuesday's cooler-than-expected inflation data is still double the Fed's 2% target, which suggests there could be more hawkishness ahead. Meanwhile, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel suggested in a separate note that the Fed may actually be done with policy tightening altogether. He explained that, since he doesn't see a recession, the stock market could actually rally higher across all sectors because of investor FOMO.
Persons: Jerome Powell, David Bahnsen, Mohamed El, , Christopher Waller, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Powell, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Tom Lee, FOMO, Read, Warren Buffett's, they're, Qatar's Sheikh Jassim, Jim Ratcliffe, Max Adams, Hallam Bullock, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Federal, Reuters, Bahnsen, Reserve, Spar Group, Capital Economics, Berkshire Hathaway, Manchester United Locations: New York, London
There is "good news for both inflation and growth," Evercore ISI Chair Ed Hyman said in a client note Tuesday. Fed officials already had been largely discounting shelter prices that they expect to recede through the year. Core services inflation "is likely to slow significantly for the rest of this year and next," Hyman wrote. To be sure, inflation is likely to remain a problem ahead, and Fed officials have stated multiple times that the current level is too high . Both increases "should also be an important reminder to markets and Fed officials," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote Wednesday.
Persons: bank's, Ed Hyman, Hyman, , Christopher Waller, Andrew Hollenhorst, Janet Yellen, Yellen, we're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, PMI, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Citigroup
The Reserve Bank of Australia seems to have executed a one-meeting 'skip', but perhaps more by accident than design. Leaving open the possibility in July of another 25-basis-point hike two months later could prevent financial conditions from loosening too much. The Fed wants policy to be restrictive, and financial markets to move accordingly. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Philip Jefferson in recent weeks have introduced 'skip' and 'skipping' into Fed-watchers' lexicons. Until then, a pause was generally assumed to lay the ground for rate cuts, not a resumption of rate hikes.
Persons: Alan Greenspan, John Silvia, Silvia, Jerome Powell, Lorie Logan, Powell, Patrick Harker, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, Price, Lou Crandall, Wrightson ICAP, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Dynamic, Fed, Dallas, Philadelphia Fed, Consumer, Index, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida
And an increase in underlying core inflation to 4.7%, up from a 4.6% pace in March, underscored the less-than-steady progress on the Fed's inflation fight. In March Mester had already expected the Fed to raise the policy rate beyond its current 5.00%-5.25% range. Fed policymakers also say they are watching credit conditions closely, though Mester on Friday said that so far she's not seeing worrisome "extra" tightening from the recent regional bank failures. Odds in futures markets are running three to one in favor of a rate hike by then. Other Fed policymakers have echoed that hawkish call.
Christopher Waller, governor of the US Federal Reserve, during a Fed Listens event in Washington, D.C., US, on Friday, Sept. 23, 2022. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday cast doubt on the need for special focus on how banks are preparing for climate change risks. Thus, he said that conducting special tests for how banks are preparing for such events probably shouldn't fall under the Fed's purview. The stress tests focus on how banks would respond to financial and economic crises. A financial stability report in 2020 first addressed the topic.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Federal Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Madrid, United States
Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, DC, on March 22, 2023. None of those figures are satisfactory for Fed officials. "Most Fed officials don't seem comfortable that the rate hike cycle is over," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst said in a note. The next Fed policy meeting comes in six weeks, on June 13-14, and April's consumer price report is due in one week, on May 10. This Fed meeting is crucial."
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it is raising interest rates by 25 basis points for the third time this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated he wants to see wage growth cool off before considering a pause on interest rate hikes. Still, while the Fed didn't see the necessary data to pause interest rate hikes this time around, there's a possibility it could happen in June. "How much further will depend on incoming data on inflation, the real economy and the extent of tightening credit conditions."
New data for March showed the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed job seekers fell for the fourth consecutive month and hit the lowest level since October 2021. At roughly 1.64 to 1 the number remains far above the levels around 1.2 seen before the pandemic. In recent months the relationship between job openings and unemployment has kept that prospect alive. The number of estimated job openings has fallen from a peak of 12 million in March of 2022 to 9.59 million in March this year. The openings rate, expressed as a percentage of filled and available positions, has fallen from a high of 7.4 last spring to 5.8 in March.
At the same time, hiring remained strong through March, and wages continue growing faster than Fed officials feel is sustainable. The ECI is only released quarterly and includes both worker pay and benefits like healthcare, giving what Fed officials regard as a clearer sense of employment-related cost trends. For Fed officials, it could influence their view of whether the economy and inflation are likely to slow more - perhaps much more - quickly than anticipated. Reuters GraphicsEconomists expect the upcoming survey will show conditions tightening further still, this time alongside data showing credit from banks in decline. "Banks may not be done tightening lending standards, which will restrict access to credit, hurt business investment, reduce business formation, and weigh on job growth and consumer spending."
April 21 (Reuters) - U.S. bond funds suffered big outflows in the week to April 19 on expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue to hike interest rates to tackle inflationary pressures. Refinitiv Lipper data showed $3.1 billion worth of net selling from U.S. bond funds after two weeks of inflows. Investors disposed of $3.16 billion of municipal bond funds in their biggest weekly net selling since December 21, 2022, but purchased about $5 million worth of taxable bond funds. Investors sold U.S. mid-, and small-cap funds of $603 million and $390 million, respectively, but purchased large-cap funds of $797 million. However consumer staples and healthcare drew $580 million and $534 million worth of inflows, respectively.
Fed needs more speed on emergency lending: Waller
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
April 20 (Reuters) - The unprecedented speed at which depositors pulled their money from Silicon Valley Bank outpaced the ability of the Federal Reserve to act as lender of last resort, underscoring the need for faster processing of emergency loans, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday. "That's the one thing about a bank run - it's a panic; once it stops, there's no real fundamental damage to the economy or the banking system per se." The Fed is currently undertaking a review of what led to SVB's failure, and what policy fixes might be needed to avert a repeat. Waller's comments on the need for speed at the Fed's emergency lending "discount window" suggests one potential fix. Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday as investors awaited economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials that could provide hints about the central bank's monetary policy plans. Investors assessed what could be next for Fed policy, especially regarding interest rates. Many are expecting the central bank to announce another 25 basis point interest rate hike after its next meeting on May 2-3. That fueled investor concerns about further interest rate hikes, and rates staying elevated for longer — a prospect which Fed officials, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, have also hinted at. On Thursday, investors will be scanning remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester for fresh policy hints.
The Federal Reserve's policy pendulum has swung back to inflation fighting. "The view is based on banking sector stress remaining contained, the economic expansion continuing and core inflation remaining stubbornly high." A cooling crisis Indeed, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bankers in late February and early March were indicating chances of half-point rate hikes . Watching the banks, and the market To be sure, the banking situation remains in flux and could yet shape Fed policy. At the same time, the two-year Treasury note yield, which is most sensitive to Fed policy moves, has jumped about half a percentage point over the past two weeks.
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