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☆ China makes surprise rate cut as economic recovery loses steam
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The rate will drop to 1.9% from 2%, according to the People’s Bank of China. The rate cut reveals “growing concerns among policymakers” about the health of China’s recovery, Capital Economics analysts said on Tuesday. “The … rate cut came earlier and sharper than our and market expectations, highlighting the sense of urgency to alleviate economic momentum and business confidence,” said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy for Standard Chartered Bank. That rate cut also came as a surprise and followed a week of turmoil in global financial markets triggered by the failure of some regional US banks. In the language of China’s policymakers, that implies a bias towards easing monetary policy, said Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group.

Persons: ”, Becky Liu, Zhaopeng Xing, Betty Wang, Yi Gang, Larry Hu, “ Governor Yi Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Capital, Standard Chartered Bank, PMI, ANZ Research, Macquarie Group, “ Locations: Hong Kong, China

☆ Asia shares near month high ahead of central bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, June 12 (Reuters) - Asian shares started tentatively on Monday as investors braced for central bank meetings from Europe, Japan and the United States this week, along with U.S. inflation data that will likely influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. China stocks (.SSEC) eased 0.01%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) opened up 0.3%. Markets are pricing for a 71% probability the U.S. central bank will stand pat when it meets on June 13-14, according to CME FedWatch tool. While doubts persist among investors which path the Fed will take this week, they are more certain the European Central Bank, which meets on Thursday, will raise rates and remain hawkish. The yen eased 0.01% to 139.39 per dollar ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy meeting on Friday.

Persons: Hong, HSI, Lagarde, Mohit Kumar, Kumar, Sterling, Brent, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Federal, Japan's Nikkei, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Citi, European Central Bank, Jefferies, ECB, Bank of Japan's, Reuters, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Europe, Japan, United States, Asia, Pacific, China, Turkish

☆ Oil edges lower ahead of Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, June 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Monday ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting as investors try to gauge the central bank's appetite for further rate hikes, while concerns about China's fuel demand growth and rising Russian crude supply weighed on the market. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $69.93 a barrel, down 24 cents, or 0.3%. "The bearish allocators will maintain the upper hand for now, as oil prices struggle to rally until the Fed eases money supply," Blanch said. Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecasts on higher-than-expected supplies from Russia and Iran and raised 2024 supply forecasts for the two producers and Venezuela by a total 800,000 bpd. The bank's December crude price forecast now stands at $86 a barrel for Brent, down from $95, and at $81 a barrel for WTI, down from $89.

Persons: Francisco Blanch, Blanch, Brent, Saudi Arabia's, Goldman Sachs, Florence Tan, Tom Hogue Organizations: Reserve, Brent, . West Texas, Bank of America Global, Saudi, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, China, Saudi Arabia, 2H23, U.S, India, Russia, Iran, Venezuela

☆ China, Its Economy Flagging, Prods Consumers to Save Less and Spend More
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Daisuke Wakabayashi | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

Why It MattersA reduction in the deposit rates is one lever that policymakers can use to stimulate spending. The hope is that the lower rates will give consumers an incentive to spend or invest money instead of parking their savings in the bank. After China scrapped its Covid restrictions late last year and reopened the economy, there were expectations that pent-up demand would push consumers to start spending freely — but that has not played out in many sectors of the economy. In the first three months of the year, China’s economy grew at 4.5 percent, helped by a pickup in spending on dining out and luxury goods. Betty Rui Wang, senior China economist at the Australia-based bank ANZ, said confidence in the economy is weak across Chinese households and private-sector businesses.

Persons: Larry Hu, Betty Rui Wang, “, ”, Wang, Li You Organizations: China, Macquarie Group, People’s Bank of China, ANZ, Communist, Commerce Locations: China, Australia, Beijing

BEIJING, June 9 (Reuters) - China's factory gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven years in May and quicker than forecasts, as faltering demand weighed on a slowing manufacturing sector and cast a cloud over the fragile economic recovery. "The risk of deflation is still weighing on the economy," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note. China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, but recent indicators show demand is rapidly weakening with exports, imports and factory activity falling in May. Food price inflation, a key driver of CPI, slowed to 1.0% year-on-year from 2.4% in the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell 0.7%.

Persons: Zhiwei Zhang, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Dan Wang, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Australia, Reuters, Capital Economics, Hang Seng Bank China, Bank of China, China's, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, United States, Europe, China

☆ The 'China picture' looks concerning, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe 'China picture' looks concerning, economist saysWei Yao, China economist at Societe Generale, says the country's housing and debt problems are big factors.

Persons: Wei Yao Organizations: Societe Generale Locations: China

☆ China's big banks cut deposit rates, signaling monetary easing ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's largest banks cut interest rates for savers on Thursday in a bid to boost growth in an economy where consumption has been slow to recover. The country's six state-owned commercial banks' websites all showed updated yuan-denominated demand deposit interest rates of 0.2%, down from 0.25% last year, according to CNBC checks. The banks cut rates for other deposit products, including reducing the interest rate for five-year time deposits to 2.5% from 2.65%, according to their websites. The state-run Securities Times reported the deposit rate cuts in the Thursday edition of the newspaper. However, it's not a given that lower deposit rates will translate immediately into greater spending.

Persons: Nomura, Ting Lu, Zhang, it's Organizations: of, Bloomberg, Getty, BEIJING, CNBC, Securities Times, People's Bank of China, China, Management Locations: of China, China, Shanghai

And while Musk has mentioned the trip in two posts since leaving, he didn't tweet once while in China. That said, after three years of harsh COVID curbs that hampered entry into China, foreign CEOs appear eager to get the lay of the land. Sixty-seven foreign business leaders attended the high-profile China Development Forum this year, although that is still 20 fewer than in 2019. The few known comments by foreign CEOs whilst they were in China have been in line with Biden's stance that he is not seeking to decouple the world's two largest economies. The foreign ministry quoted Musk as saying he was opposed to a decoupling of the U.S. and China economies which he described as "conjoined twins".

Persons: Elon Musk, Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Musk, Goldman's Solomon, wariness, Xi, Noah Fraser, Tesla, Goldman, Joe Biden, Tim Cook, Patrick Gelsinger, Mary Barra, Stephen Schwarzman, Jamie Dimon, Christopher Johnson, JPMorgan's Dimon, Daniel Russel, Brenda Goh, Joe Cash, Selena Li, Zhang Yan, David Brunnstrom, David Shepardson, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: Media, Twitter, Canada China Business Council, EU Chamber of Commerce, U.S . Department of Commerce, U.S, flashpoints, General Motors, China, China Strategies, U.S ., JPMorgan, Blackstone, Intel, JPMorgan Global China Summit, Asia Society Policy Institute, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, BEIJING, China, Shanghai, U.S, Washington, Beijing, Blackstone's, East, Hong Kong

☆ China's stimulus could focus on its 'dire' property sector. Here's what economists expect
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

China's economic recovery is losing momentum after an initial burst in consumer and business activity early in the year, prompting calls for more policy stimulus to bolster growth. // "The stimulus package could be centered on the property sector, with expansionary monetary and fiscal policies to keep up growth momentum," Citi economists led by Xiangrong Yu wrote in a Tuesday note. Don't expect a 'bazooka'Nomura's Chief China economist Ting Lu said "the situation of China's property sector appears dire." The Japanese investment bank doesn't expect a "bazooka" stimulus package but predicts it will be introduced in a cautious manner. They pointed to the latest wording from top policymakers and their emphasis on "security" – how this is an indicator for the scale of a stimulus package to come.

Persons: Qilai Shen, Xiangrong Yu, Ting Lu, Nomura Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, Citi Locations: Wuxi, China, Beijing

☆ Is China heading for Japan-like stagnation? Economist says the worst is likely behind us
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Jade Gao | Afp | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's economic recovery from the pandemic is set to broaden, meaning the country isn't headed toward Japan-style stagnation just yet, according to Macquarie's Chief China Economist Larry Hu. The meeting, led by Premier Li Qiang, noted the foundation of China's economic recovery is not yet solid. Similar, but not the same as, Japan"While the worst is behind us, the recovery is far from being self-sustaining," Macquarie's Hu said. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon iShares MSCI China ETF"The absence of a self-sustained recovery in China today is mainly a cyclical, not structural, phenomenon," Hu said. The iShares MSCI China ETF is down by about 4% so far this year.

Persons: Jade Gao, Larry Hu, Hu, Macquarie, China's, Premier Li Qiang, Macquarie's Hu, Japan's Organizations: Afp, Getty, BEIJING, China, State Council, Premier, Companies Locations: Beijing, Japan, China

SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, June 2 (Reuters) - China's yuan has skidded to six-month lows against the dollar and analysts say it could weaken further as investors fret over a bumpy pandemic recovery in the world's second-largest economy. "The yuan suffers as China's reopening story is less appealing than before, and there is no sign of further stimulus," said Gary Ng, senior economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. "A weaker currency at the current juncture can help export performance, especially as global trade is shrinking this year." "A weaker yuan helps exporters when they convert the dollar receivables to yuan," said Barclays' FX strategist Lemon Zhang. A weaker yuan might also temper deflationary pressures being seen in parts of the economy due to weak domestic demand.

Persons: Gary Ng, Alvin Tan, Tan, Tommy Wu, Lemon Zhang, Serena Zhou, Winni Zhou, Brenda Goh, Tom Westbrook, Kim Coghill Organizations: Asia Pacific, Reuters, People's Bank of China, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, Barclays, FX, Mizuho Securities, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, SINGAPORE, United States, Natixis, Asia, China, Shanghai, Singapore

Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has been matched by soft outcomes in other important parts of the world's second-biggest economy. Rather it is construction and manufacturing that propel commodity demand, especially for steel raw material iron ore and for copper. The softness in those sectors is likely to show up in commodity imports in coming months, but not yet. Seaborne iron ore imports are expected at about 93.29 million tonnes, according to Refinitiv data, which would be stronger than the 90.44 million tonnes recorded by customs in April. If this is the case, it's likely that they may consider trimming imports in coming months, especially if the run of soft economic data continues.

Persons: it's, Robert Birsel Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Refinitiv Oil Research, Global, Brent, Singapore, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, March's

Refinitiv data shows foreigners sold $1.71 billion worth of mainland shares this month via Stock Connect, a key cross-border link between the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges, after selling $659 million in April. Despite outflows in February, April and May, foreigners' net purchases of mainland shares still stood at $25.05 billion for the first five months of this year, compared with net buying of about $6.36 billion worth over the whole of 2022. "Foreigners seem to have been selling because of the underwhelming near-term economic data points and, perhaps, because of the opportunities available to investors with a broader (pan-Asia or global) mandate," Pershad said. "We presume other investors have re-allocated some capital from China to those markets (and others) this year." Reporting By Patturaja Murugaboopathy and Gaurav Dogra in Bengaluru; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan & Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Pruksa Iamthongthong, Refinitiv, Alexander Davey, Vikas Pershad, Pershad, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Gaurav Dogra, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Stock Connect, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, P Global, PMI, Morningstar, Allianz All China Equity WT, HK, HSBC Asset Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, G Investments, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, China, Morningstar ,, Taiwan, Shanghai, Asia, Bengaluru

[1/3] Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk stands near Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao before leaving the Chinese Ministry of Commerce in Beijing, China May 31, 2023. Billionaire Elon Musk has been showered with praise by the Chinese public during his trip to China and while also securing audiences with three government ministers. "Elon Musk is just great, if only China could have someone like Elon Musk," said another. Musk's unannounced trip is the latest by a major U.S. CEO to China since the country reversed its zero-COVID policy and reopened its borders. The commerce ministry also did not respond to a request for comment.

Persons: Elon Musk, Wang Wentao, Tingshu Wang, Ma, Billionaire Elon Musk, Zeng Yuqun, Jin Zhuanglong, hasn't, Musk, Elon, Tim Cook, JP Morgan's, Jamie Dimon, Laxman Narasimhan, CATL's Zeng, Tesla, CATL, Martin Pollard, Josh Arslan, Wang Tingshu, Joe Cash, Zhang Yan, Brenda Goh, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: Tesla, Commerce, Chinese Ministry of Commerce, REUTERS, Tesla Inc, Fu Yan, Twitter, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, Tingshu Wang BEIJING, U.S, Shanghai, United States

Summary Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fallsNon-manufacturing PMI falls, as services slowPMIs show economic recovery losing steamMarkets skid on PMI weaknessBEIJING, May 31 (Reuters) - China's factory activity shrank faster than expected in May on weakening demand, heaping pressure on policymakers to shore up a patchy economic recovery and knocking Asian financial markets lower. "The PMI data reveal that China may heading to a K-shaped recovery," said Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang LaSalle. "The sluggish domestic demand could weigh on China's sustainable growth, if there are no efficient and effective policy moves to engineer a broad-based recovery," said Pang. The PMI subindexes for May showed factory output swung to contraction from an expansion while new orders, including new exports, fell for the second month. Last month, imports contracted sharply, factory gate prices fell, property investment slumped, industrial profits plunged and factory output and retail sales both missed forecasts.

Persons: Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle's Pang, Li Qiang, Zhiwei Zhang, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: PMI, National Bureau of Statistics, . Service, New, Jones, Labor, Nomura, Barclays, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Asia, New Zealand, China, Japan

☆ Morning Bid: Back to data watching, with US debt bill on track
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Unfortunately, there's little respite on that front given disappointing economic activity and persistently elevated inflation data out of Asia. China's official PMIs indicated a faster-than-expected contraction in manufacturing activity and slower growth in services in May. That followed consistently weak economic releases for April, suggesting the post-COVID reopening bounce has run out of steam. China economyAsian stock markets fell and even U.S. equity futures turned negative despite the debt ceiling reprieve, while China's yuan promptly skidded to fresh six-month lows, giving the U.S. dollar a broad boost. But much of the focus will, of course, be on the House debate over the debt ceiling bill.

Persons: Sonali Desai, Philip Lowe's, Italy's, Ignazio Visco's, Catherine Mann, Muralikumar Organizations: Sonali, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S, CPI, Central Bank's, Bank of Italy, Bank of England MPC, Nordstrom, Thomson Locations: Asia, China, Korean, Ukraine, France, Germany, Italy, U.S, Italian

☆ Very few U.S.-China flights are back despite the end of Covid
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Previously, the only regular direct flights by Chinese carriers between mainland China and New York since the pandemic were from Shanghai and Guangzhou. Flights of Air China are parked on the tarmac of Beijing Capital International Airport in Beijing, China, March 28, 2016. watch nowIn March, Delta announced it resumed direct flights between the U.S. and China — from Shanghai to Seattle and Detroit. Overall, mainland China's international flights remains below 40% of 2019 levels, the Nomura report said. The analysts expect that level to pick up to 70% by the end of the year as international flights recover around the summer holiday season.

Persons: Nomura, Ting Lu, Kim Kyung Hoon Organizations: China, U.S, Air, U.S . Department of Transportation, Beijing Capital International Airport, Reuters, American Airlines, Delta Locations: BEIJING, U.S, China, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Italy, Variflight, Middle East, Iran, Beijing, Ukraine, Air China, New York, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Los Angeles, Delta, United, Seattle, Detroit

☆ Morning Bid: China factory fright, dollar surges
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The yuan , now down more than 3% from its early May peaks, skidded to its lowest level of the year against the dollar as investors considered the possibility of further credit easing by the Chinese central bank. The dollar index hit its highest level since mid-March, with the European inflation news and China demand picture knocking the euro to its lowest in two months too. German import prices fell at an annual rate of 7% in April and the ECB's financial stability report warned about a "disorderly" hit to house prices from higher mortgage rates. The House Rules Committee voted 7-6 on Tuesday to approve the rules allowing a debate and vote by the full chamber. Overall, stock markets slipped back slightly - with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index the big underperformer after the Chinese factory release.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Loretta Mester, Philip Jefferson, Susan Collins, Patrick Harker, Christine Lagarde, Jane Merriman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Wednesday's Financial, European Central Bank, Dallas Fed, Boston, Philadelphia Fed, Consumer, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Europe, China, Italy, Chicago

HONG KONG, May 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Elon Musk may be China’s most popular American. State media quoted Musk saying the United States and China share “inseparable” interests and that Tesla opposes decoupling. This all provides the $638 billion Tesla with good political cover in the world’s largest automobile market. But for now Beijing and Musk are getting what they want out of the arrangement, and that means it is likely to endure. Reuters GraphicsFollow @petesweeneypro and @KatrinaHamlin on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSTesla Chief Executive Elon Musk visited China on May 30 for the first time since 2020.

Persons: Elon, Qin Gang, Musk, Xi Jinping, Elon Musk, Apple's Tim Cook, JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon, Laxman Narasimhan, Robyn Mak, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Foreign, Chinese Communist Party, Tesla’s, Twitter, CCP, SpaceX, Starbucks, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Beijing, Shanghai, China, Japan, Republic, India, Turkey, People’s Republic, United States, Washington

☆ New warning signs emerge for China's property market
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Construction on a real estate development project gets underway near the Bund in Shanghai, China, on May 25, 2023. BEIJING — New data show China's massive property sector is still struggling to turn around, despite signs of recovery earlier this year. Beijing has eased its pressure on real estate developers in the last year, following a crackdown on their debt levels in August 2020. The property sector and related industries have accounted for more than a quarter of China's economy, according to Moody's estimates. Both weeks' sales volume was lower than during the same period in 2019, prior to the pandemic, the report said.

Persons: That's, Ting Lu Organizations: Bund Locations: Shanghai, China, BEIJING, U.S, Beijing

☆ China's disappointing rebound could bring in more stimulus, economists say
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg via Getty Images Qilai Shen | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesChina's much-vaunted economic rebound after its emergence from strict zero-Covid lockdown measures has yet to fully materialize, prompting some economists to speculate that further fiscal stimulus or monetary policy easing could be coming down the pipeline. Data from China's Bureau of Statistics shows that 6 million of the 96 million 16 to 24-year-olds in the urban labor force are currently unemployed. watch nowIn a research note Monday, Capital Economics assessed that, despite losing some momentum, China's economic recovery was still progressing at the start of the second quarter, with scope for further service sector-led improvement. But we do not expect policy rate cut or major fiscal stimulus, barring a precipitous fall in exports in the coming months." Any consensus among economists as to the trajectory of fiscal and monetary policy seems to be unraveling in light of the tenuous recovery.

☆ Chinese apps remain hugely popular in the U.S. despite efforts to ban TikTok
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Lauren Feiner | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +15 min

But while TikTok has been the one in the spotlight, other Chinese apps that present similar issues are also experiencing massive popularity in the U.S. Gorman said as the U.S. considers the threat posed by TikTok, it will also need to develop a framework for how to evaluate the relative risk of Chinese apps. But in the meantime, U.S. consumers continue to turn to Chinese apps. "And then of course, there's the early growth of Lemon8, which suggests that the appetite for Chinese apps in the U.S. is still growing." And some say the most effective long-term solution for curbing the use of Chinese apps may be fostering an environment for robust alternatives to grow.

☆ 3 reasons why even China doesn't want the yuan to replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

The Chinese yuan is one of the top contenders challenging the USD's dominance as a reserve currency. However, Beijing may not be fully supportive of making the yuan the reserve currency of choice. Here's why even China isn't that keen on de-dollarizing the world economy and making the yuan the top reserve currency. So, the US will need to contend with ever larger amounts of deficit, in order to maintain its pre-eminent reserve currency position. Given the issues standing in Beijing's way, it's unlikely for the yuan to take over the greenback's position as the world's reserve currency of choice, said Green.

☆ China thesis lurches from one lazy extreme to next
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Pete Sweeney | Thomson Reuters | Asia Economics Editor Pete Sweeney Joined Reuters Breakingviews In Hong Kong In September Previously He Served As Reuters' Chief Correspondent For China Economy | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HONG KONG, May 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Foreigners that once piled into offshore Chinese equities are evacuating as confidence in the country’s economic recovery sags. The China trade has always been unbalanced towards overseas-listed Chinese consumer and internet firms, and foreigners preferred building factories, acquiring large stakes in companies and the like over portfolio trading. Even at a peak in 2021, they held barely over 8 trillion yuan ($1.1 trillion) of yuan-denominated Chinese stocks and bonds, per official data, compared to $27 trillion of American equivalents. Now the former figure has fallen below 7 trillion yuan. Major Chinese indexes in Hong Kong and New York have also slid, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index having lost around 15% in the last three months.

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