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U.K. pauseThe Bank of England opted to pause interest rate moves after 14 straight hikes, keeping its main policy rate at 5.25%. The decline came despite interest rate hikes generally boosting the value of a currency. Scandinavian inflationIn northern Europe, Norway and Sweden opted for rate hikes on Thursday and suggested that further tightening could be ahead. Norway's headline inflation rate was 4.8% in August, with core inflation at 6.3%. The Norges Bank forecast now indicates a policy rate of 4.5% through 2024, up from the current 4.25%.
Persons: Bank of England Andrew Bailey, BoE, Alastair Grant, ALASTAIR GRANT, Carsten Brzeski, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Paul Dales, Simon French, Panmure Gordon, Thomas Jordan, Jordan, Ida Wolden Bache, Bache Organizations: Bank of England, The Bank of England, Getty, Afp, ING, CNBC, of England, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal, HSBC, Panmure, Swiss National Bank, European Central Bank, ECB, U.S, Norway's Norges Bank, Norges Bank Locations: London, U.K, Paul, Switzerland, Swiss, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Norway's
The data comes hours before the Bank of Japan (BOJ) concludes its two-day policy meeting that began on Thursday. While government subsidies pushed down utility bills, prices rose for a range of food and daily necessities in a sign that steady inflation was taking hold in the world's third-largest economy. "The persistent stickiness of inflation means the BOJ will need to revise up their inflation forecasts at its October meeting," said Gabriel Ng, an economist at Capital Economics. After hitting a peak of 4.2% in January, core inflation continued to slow as the effects of last year's sharp rises in fuel and raw material prices dissipate. But some analysts say the slowdown has not been as large as expected due to steady rises in food prices, and could keep inflation above the BOJ's target longer than initially thought.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Gabriel Ng, Ueda, Leika Kihara, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: TOKYO
Global central banks unite in "higher for longer" credo
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Mark John | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
The so-called "higher for longer" mantra is now the official stance of the U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Bank of England, as well as being echoed by monetary policy-makers from Oslo to Tapei. U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers had a similar message on Wednesday. Turkey's central bank confirmed its hawkish turn while in Asia, Taiwan's central bank flagged continued tight policy. Reuters Graphics"TIPPING POINT"Belgian central bank chief and ECB board member Pierre Wunsch - an early voice urging tougher central bank action to counter inflation from end-2021 - said on Thursday that monetary policy was now at the right level. That said, the prospect that global interest rates are pretty close to peak will be of huge relief to emerging economies suffering from heavy debt servicing loads.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ann, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Pierre Wunsch, Wunsch, COVID lockdowns, Jerome, Powell, Krishna Guha, Howard Schneider, Balazs Koranyi, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Kansas City Federal, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, U.S . Federal, Swiss National Bank, South African Reserve Bank, People's Bank of, Reuters, ECB, Reuters Global Markets, Economics, Sterling, Swiss, United, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Central, Oslo, Tapei, Europe, Norway, Sweden, Asia, People's Bank of China, Belgian, United States, Ukraine, Washington, Frankfurt, London, Stockholm, Zurich, Ankara
London CNN —The Bank of England paused its historic interest rate hiking campaign for the first time in nearly two years Thursday after inflation fell unexpectedly in August. The Federal Reserve also kept rates on hold Wednesday, as did Switzerland’s central bank earlier on Thursday. The Bank of England did not rule out further rate increases, however, although it said it expected headline inflation to “fall significantly” in the near term, reflecting lower energy and food inflation. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast inflation would rise to 7% — from 6.8% in July — because of higher oil prices. “There is an air of underlying weakness,” chief UK economist at Capital Economics Paul Dales said about July’s GDP data.
Persons: Martin Beck, insolvencies, Capital Economics Paul Dales Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, Federal, Reuters, Office, National Statistics, Capital Economics Paul Locations: United Kingdom,
London CNN —Central bankers have had to climb a metaphoric mountain over the past two years in the battle to control runaway inflation. The announcement came just hours after Switzerland’s central bank kept rates unchanged and a day after the US Federal Reserve did the same, holding its key lending rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%. “Central banks think they have raised interest rates enough to bring inflation down to their 2% targets in a couple of years’ time,” Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, told CNN. Key interest rates are now at levels that, if “maintained for a sufficiently long duration, will make a substantial contribution” to reducing inflation to its 2% target, the central bank said. “By this time next year, we anticipate that 21 out of the world’s 30 major central banks will be cutting interest rates.”
Persons: ” Paul Dales, , Jerome Powell, Sarah Silbiger, Brent, Andrew Bailey, ” Seema Shah, , J.P, Morgan, Jennifer McKeown Organizations: London CNN —, Bank of England, US Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, CNN, European Central Bank, ECB, Federal, Washington DC, Bloomberg, Getty, European Union, EU, European Commission, Asset Management, Locations: United Kingdom, United States, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia
UK disinflationary shock sharpens Bailey’s dilemma
  + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey speaks as he attends a press conference for the Monetary Policy Report August 2023, at the Bank of England in London, Britain, August 3, 2023. Alastair Grant/Pool via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey finally got some good news on Wednesday. UK annual inflation fell to 6.7% in August, from 6.8% in July, confounding market expectations of a rise to 7%. Domestic disinflationary forces offset a nearly 30% rise in oil prices to bring headline inflation to the lowest level since February 2022. Higher petrol prices did add around 0.3 percentage points to the consumer price index, according to Capital Economics.
Persons: Bank of England Andrew Bailey, Alastair Grant, Andrew Bailey, disinflation, Francesco Guerrera, Bernie Sanders’s, Neil Unmack, Streisand Neto Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, REUTERS Acquire, Reuters, Capital Economics, CPI, Thomson Locations: London, Britain
Why health insurance is poised to make inflation jump
  + stars: | 2023-09-17 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Suriyapong Thongsawang | Moment | Getty ImagesWhy health insurance inflation is hard to measureHealth insurance prices are a tricky thing for economists to quantify. Instead, the agency measures health insurance inflation indirectly based partly on health insurers' profits. It appears that health insurance prices measured in the CPI "will start rebounding" again, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics. How health insurance profits affect inflationEarly in the Covid-19 pandemic, health insurers' profits jumped. Why health insurance inflation mattersThe U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates aggressively starting early last year to rein in persistently high inflation.
Persons: Suriyapong, Andrew Hunter, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Jerome Powell Organizations: BLS, Capital Economics, Health, Moody's, Consumers, U.S . Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve, Federal
National flag flies over the Russian Central Bank headquarters in Moscow, Russia May 27, 2022. On Friday, it gave hawkish guidance that it would consider further rate increases at upcoming meetings and said inflationary risks remained significant. The central bank adjusted its year-end forecast for inflation to 6.0-7.0% from 5.0-6.5%. "Russia's central bank is a hawkish institution that takes its commitment to inflation fighting seriously," said Senior Emerging Markets Economist Liam Peach. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina will shed more light on the bank's forecasts and policy in a media briefing at 1200 GMT.
Persons: Maxim Shemetov, jacking, Liam Peach, Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina, Alexander Marrow, Elena Fabrichnaya, Darya Korsunskaya, Maria Kiselyova, Amruta Khandekar, Andrew Osborn, William Maclean, Catherine Evans Organizations: Russian Central Bank, REUTERS, Kremlin, Capital Economics, Central Bank Governor, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Russian, Ukraine MOSCOW, Ukraine, London
SHANGHAI, Sept 14 (Reuters) - China's central bank is expected to boost liquidity while keeping the borrowing cost steady when rolling over its medium-term policy loans on Friday, a Reuters survey showed, after a string of data showed some signs of economic stabilisation. China has already lowered the medium-term policy rate twice since June to stimulate credit demand and support a faltering economic recovery. New bank lending in China beat expectations by nearly quadrupling in August from July's level, as the central bank sought to shore up economic growth amid soft demand at home and abroad. To revive broad credit demand and rescue the troubled property sector, China unexpectedly cut the MLF rate last month. For this reason alone, it seems unlikely that the PBOC will embrace large-scale rate cuts."
Persons: Frances Cheung, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: People's Bank of China, OCBC Bank, U.S, Capital Economics, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: SHANGHAI, China, United States, OCBC Bank .
Celal Gunes | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineAt first glance, August's CPI report seems bad news. And gasoline prices have actually retreated 3.3% from a year ago, suggesting that they're still on a downward trend in the long run. Indeed, the annual measure of core CPI still dropped from 4.7% in July to 4.3% in August.
Persons: Celal, we've, Andrew Hunter, Lisa Sturtevant, Sturtevant, Kayla Bruun, " Bruun, Dow, , Jeff Cox, Greg Iacurci Organizations: Anadolu Agency, Getty, CNBC, CPI, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Capital Economics, Bright MLS, Morning, Markets, 3M, Caterpillar, Nasdaq Locations: Virginia, Tesla
U.K. gross domestic profit fell by 0.5% in July, below the 0.2% contraction forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. The economy put in a better-than-expected performance for the second quarter as a whole, with the ONS reiterating its reading of 0.2% growth. It is the latest sign of economic strain amid higher interest rates. On Tuesday, figures showed U.K. mortgages in arrears jumped to a seven-year high in the three months to June. Dales highlighted strikes and unusually wet weather as drags on certain sectors, but said output declined more broadly, suggesting widespread weakness.
Persons: Paul Dales, — Jenni Reid Organizations: National Statistics, Capital Economics, Bank of England
However, excluding volatile food and energy, the core CPI increased 0.3% and 4.3%, respectively, against estimates for 0.2% and 4.3%. Federal Reserve officials focus more on core as it provides a better indication of where inflation is heading over the long term. Inflation posted its biggest monthly increase this year in August as consumers faced higher prices on energy and a variety of other items. Food prices rose 0.2% while shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the CPI weighting, climbed 0.3%. Within shelter, the rent of primary residence index rose 0.5% and increased 7.8% from a year ago.
Persons: Dow Jones, airfares, Lisa Sturtevant, Sturtevant, paychecks, Andrew Hunter Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Department of Labor, Transportation, Bright MLS, Treasury, Labor Department, Capital Economics, Group
The Office for National Statistics are due to release the latest UK CPI Inflation data on Wednesday. The economy put in a better-than-expected performance for the second quarter as a whole, with the ONS reiterating its reading of 0.2% growth. July's surprise dip meant the economy shrank at its fastest pace since December, according to ONS figures. On Tuesday, figures showed U.K. mortgages in arrears jumped to a seven-year high in the three months to June. Major investment banks trimmed their U.K. growth expectations following the reading.
Persons: Jose Sarmento Matos, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, James Smith, Paul Dales Organizations: National Statistics, Bloomberg, Getty, ING, Capital Economics Locations: Italian, London
Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesInflation rose in August on the back of higher gasoline prices, according to the consumer price index. Gasoline was the largest contributor to inflation in August, accounting for more than half of the increase, according to the BLS. This pared-down measure — known as "core" CPI — fell to an annual rate of 4.3% in August from 4.7% in July. On a monthly basis, core inflation rose slightly, to 0.3% in August from 0.2% in July. The increase in monthly core CPI "is a little bump in the road," said Kayla Bruun, senior economist at Morning Consult.
Persons: Andrew Hunter, Hunter, Kayla Bruun, " Bruun, Greg McBride, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Scott Olson Organizations: Anadolu Agency, Getty, Capital Economics, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI, AAA, BLS, Transportation, U.S . Department, Morning, Bankrate, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics Locations: Virginia, U.S
"The primary culprit is the property sector. This source of growth has now evaporated and won't be coming back," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics in Singapore. The Sept. 4-11 Reuters poll of 76 analysts, based in and outside mainland China, predicted the economy would grow 5.0% this year, lower than 5.5% forecast in a July survey. While recent data showed signs of improvement in the economy, some economists said more policy support was needed for the ailing property sector. A strong majority of economists who answered an additional question said the risks to their 2023 and 2024 GDP growth forecasts were skewed to the downside.
Persons: Julian Evans, Pritchard, Bingnan Ye, Teeuwe Mevissen, Vivek Mishra, Devayani, Anant Chandak, Veronica Khongwir, Jing Wang, Kevin Yao, Ross Finley, Sam Holmes Organizations: Capital Economics, China Merchants Bank, People's Bank of, Rabobank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, China, Singapore, Beijing, Hong Kong, People's Bank of China, Netherlands, Bengaluru, Shanghai
A Reuters poll of 17 analysts show that 15 are forecasting a rate hike. An easing of import restrictions and the removal of subsidies - both conditions of the bailout - have fueled spikes in energy prices. Although overall inflation fell slightly to 27.4% in August, food inflation remain elevated at 38.5%. Pakistan's central bank said in July that it expects inflation to be on a downward path over the next 12 months. Analysts also noted that rises in cut-off yields in treasury bill auctions - the highest yield at which a bid is accepted - indicate that market participants expect a rate hike.
Persons: Shivaan Tandon, Ariba Shahid, Swati Bhat, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: State Bank of Pakistan, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: KARACHI, Karachi
Stock prices were mostly higher in Asia on Monday as investors awaited an update on U.S. inflation and China’s latest economic data. The futures for the S&P 500 and Dow were trading higher. That could lead the Federal Reserve and other central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer, which would hurt prices for shares and other investments. On Friday, stocks edged higher on Wall Street, but markets still ended their first losing week in the last three. High interest rates are supposed to slow the economy and hurt the job market, which should ultimately help undercut inflation.
Persons: Zichun Huang, Hong, Hang Seng, Australia's, Kroger, ” Stephen Innes, Brent, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Dow, Federal Reserve, Economics, Nikkei, U.S, Labor, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Albertsons, Treasury, Management, New York Mercantile Exchange, Bank of Japan Gov Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, China
FILE PHOTO: An Aramco employee walks near an oil tank at Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura oil refinery and oil terminal in Saudi Arabia May 21, 2018. Riyadh says it aims to stabilise the oil market by extending a voluntary oil output cut of 1 million barrels per day until the end of 2023. Declining oil production and revenue this year could see Saudi Arabia's economy shrink for the first time since 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, although a hefty dividend from state oil producer Saudi Aramco (2222.SE) should provide a cushion for public finances. Last year the Saudi economy grew 8.7% and generated a fiscal surplus of 2.5% of GDP, its first surplus in nine years as oil soared to highs near $124. "Certainly, we see no signs that the Public Investment Fund's acquisition streak is cooling," RBC Capital Markets said in a note.
Persons: Ahmed Jadallah, Justin Alexander, Monica Malik, Alexander, James Swanston, PIF, Neil Quilliam, Quilliam, Rachna Uppal, Yousef Saba, Ahmad Ghaddar, Susan Fenton Organizations: REUTERS, Saudi Aramco, OPEC's, Khalij Economics, Abu, Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, PMI, GlobalSource Partners, Capital Economics, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Public Investment Fund, Saudi, Public Investment, RBC Capital Markets, Reuters, Chatham House, Aramco, Riyadh bourse, Thomson Locations: Aramco, Saudi, Saudi Arabia, DUBAI, Riyadh, Ukraine, Abu Dhabi, Saudi Aramco, London, PIF
That drop was off the back of lower core goods inflation, Capital Economics analyst Jason Tuvey said, while services inflation - which central bank board members have described as "sticky" - remained above 5% year over year. Annual core inflation in the second half of the month was "good news," said central bank board member Jonathan Heath on social media network X. Headline inflation edged downward to 4.64% in the month, in line with market expectations and its lowest since March 2021. That was driven by softer core price pressures, Capital's Tuvey said, but with inflation in the services sector still proving stubborn, the central bank is still unlikely to kick off an interest-rate easing cycle soon. The closely watched core price index rose 0.27% during the month (MXCPIX=ECI).
Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Jason Tuvey, Jonathan Heath, Capital's Tuvey, Andres Abadia, Natalia Siniawski, Kylie Madry, Frances Kerry, Aurora Ellis Organizations: REUTERS, Capital, Reuters, of, Macroeconomics, America, Thomson Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, of Mexico
Halifax said house prices were 4.6% lower last month than in August 2022, when they were close to their peak. "House prices have proven more resilient than expected so far this year.... The Bank of England has raised interest rates 14 times since December 2021, taking rates to 5.25% in August. Rival mortgage lender Nationwide reported last week that house prices in August were 5.3% lower than a year earlier. Imogen Pattison, assistant economist at Capital Economics, said the bigger-than-expected fall in Halifax house prices supported the consultancy's forecast that house prices would drop a total of 10.5% by mid 2024.
Persons: Phil Noble, Halifax, Kim Kinnaird, Andrew Bailey, Imogen Pattison, David Milliken, Paul Sandle, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Halifax, Lloyds Banking Group, Bank of England, Nationwide, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Manchester, Britain, Halifax
HONG KONG (AP) — China's exports and imports both fell in August from a year earlier, reflecting tepid global demand that is adding to pressures on its slowing economy. Customs data released Thursday showed exports for August slumped 8.8% to $284.87 billion in the fourth straight month of decline. The total trade surplus fell to $68.36 billion from $80.6 billion in July. China’s imports from Russia, mostly oil and gas, increased 13.3% from a year earlier to $11.52 billion. Exports to the European Union tumbled 10.5% from the same time last year to $41.3 billion, while imports of European goods declined 2.5% to $24.56 billion.
Persons: ” Julian Evans, Pritchard, , August's Organizations: , Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, Kremlin, European Union Locations: HONG KONG, Europe, Asia, U.S, Russia, Ukraine
Europe faces dirtier inflation fight than US
  + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
The euro zone’s export-led economy is weak, consumers and businesses are borrowing less, and higher borrowing costs mean there’s further pain to come. The contrasting fortunes of Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, and Jerome Powell, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, can be summed up in two numbers. The equivalent figures for the euro zone were 5.3% and 0.6%, respectively. Euro zone inflation has halved from the 10.6% peak it reached in October 2022. Europe faces a longer and dirtier fight to tame rising prices.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, That’s, Lagarde, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Reuters, U.S . Federal, P, International Monetary Fund, ECB, Economics, Labour, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, United States, U.S, China
Germany's services sector contracted for the first time this year and France's shrank more than first estimated. Japan proved an outlier as service sector activity expanded there at its quickest pace in three months, underpinned by robust consumer spending as inbound tourism regained momentum. "August's services PMI pointed to a contraction in UK private sector activity. ASIAN PAINChina's Caixin/S&P Global services PMI dropped to 51.8 in August from 54.1 in July, the lowest reading since December when COVID-19 confined many consumers to their homes. The data broadly aligned with the official services PMI released last week, which showed the sector continued to trend downwards.
Persons: Henry Nicholls, Adrian Prettejohn, Martin Beck, Duncan Wrigley, Jonathan Cable, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, RBC, P Global, Capital Economics, PMI, Bank of Japan, Pantheon, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, India, Japan, Asia, July's, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, COVID
Germany's services sector contracted for the first time this year and France's shrank more than first estimated. Japan proved an outlier as service sector activity expanded there at its quickest pace in three months, underpinned by robust consumer spending as inbound tourism regained momentum. "August's services PMI pointed to a contraction in UK private sector activity. ASIAN PAINChina's Caixin/S&P Global services PMI dropped to 51.8 in August from 54.1 in July, the lowest reading since December when COVID-19 confined many consumers to their homes. The data broadly aligned with the official services PMI released last week, which showed the sector continued to trend downwards.
Persons: Henry Nicholls, Adrian Prettejohn, Martin Beck, Duncan Wrigley, Jonathan Cable, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, European Union, RBC, P Global, Capital Economics, PMI, Bank of Japan, Pantheon, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, India, Japan, Asia, July's, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, COVID
London CNN —The UK economy recovered from the Covid-19 pandemic much faster than previously thought, according to major revisions of official statistics that have erased Britain’s laggard status overnight. The ONS had said as recently as last month that UK GDP had still not reached its pre-pandemic size by the second quarter of this year. “UK growth has still been very sluggish, even if it’s not at the bottom,” said Prof. Huw Dixon, who leads research in economic measurement at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. So while the size of the economy is bigger than we thought, Britain still has a growth problem.”Richer dataIn 2020, the UK economy suffered its biggest slump in more than three centuries, recovering sharply the following year off a low base. Annual GDP growth for 2021 was also revised up by 1.1 percentage points to 8.7%.
Persons: ” Ruth Gregory, , , Huw Dixon, ” Dixon, ” John Springford, Richer, That’s, Frost, Darren Morgan, Henry Nicholls, Jeremy Hunt, Gregory, Nomura Organizations: London CNN, Office, National Statistics, ONS, Capital Economics, National Institute of Economic, Social Research, CNN, Centre, European Reform, Getty Images, Bank of England Locations: Germany, United States, Canada, Japan, Italy, France, Britain, Petticoat Lane, AFP, United Kingdom
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