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It's still likely the Fed will issue its first rate cut this June, Citi economist Veronica Clark said. That's because central bankers will need to support a weakening labor market, Clark told Yahoo Finance. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is still likely to cut rates in June in order to prop up the labor market amid a slowdown in hiring, according to Citi economist Veronica Clark. "We have a base case for June still," Clark said of rate cuts, though she noted a July Fed rate cut was also possible. Markets are now pricing in just one or two cuts by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from as many as seven rate cuts projected at the start of 2024.
Persons: It's, Veronica Clark, Clark, , That's, Powell Organizations: Citi, Yahoo Finance, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics — Locations: Central
New York CNN —US stocks sank Thursday morning after the latest GDP report showed that US economic growth slowed to 1.6% in the first quarter of the year, a much weaker pace than expected. “This report was the worst of both worlds: economic growth is slowing and inflationary pressures are persisting,” wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance, in a note Thursday morning. Economic growth appears to be floating back down to earth after notching a very strong second half of 2023. GDP grew by 4.9% and 3.4% in the third and fourth quarters of last year. Those sticky inflation rates have pushed investors to slash their expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed.
Persons: Dow, , Chris Zaccarelli, They’re, It’s, stagflation, Jamie Dimon, “ Stagflation, , we’ve, Ben Carlson Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Independent, Alliance, Fed, Economic, of New, JPMorgan, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Tech, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon Locations: New York, of New York
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 9, 2024. Stock futures fell sharply Thursday after the latest U.S. economic data showed a sharp slowdown in growth and pointed to persistent inflation. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 419 points or 1.1%. Along with the downbeat growth rate for the quarter, the report showed consumer prices increased at a 3.4% pace, well above the previous quarter's 1.8% advance. Following the GDP print, traders moved down expectations for an easing of Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Persons: Dow Jones, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Dow, Federal Reserve, Federal, Traders
Here's why Thursday's post-GDP sell-off may be overdone
  + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Stocks sold off Thursday aHoweverfter the latest economic data came in weaker than expected, but some observers say that the reaction was overdone. While the headline GDP number missed expectations, it nevertheless showed economic growth the Fed could take in stride, they say. He noted that the core parts of GDP, such as consumption growth and residential growth, were "quite good." "Stagflation is a combination of stagnant growth and high inflation," Nick continued. "I think the earnings backdrop has been very supportive," Lee told CNBC's " Closing Bell " on Thursday.
Persons: Stocks, Dow Jones, Chris Zaccarelli, Brian Nick, Nick, we're, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Jeff Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Independent, Alliance, Dow Jones, Treasury, Macro, Wolfe Research Locations: U.S
Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast GDP growth would come in at 2.4%. Tech tumbleThe lackluster GDP added further pressure to an already-tense market contending with concerns over a pullback in growth among technology earnings. "This report was the worst of both worlds: economic growth is slowing and inflationary pressures are persisting," wrote Chris Zaccarelli, investment chief at Independent Advisor Alliance. Investors are hoping the PCE report, which is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, will show an improvement in pricing pressures after the March consumer inflation report came in hotter than expected. — Brian Evans8:58 a.m.: 10-year Treasury yield jumps to highest level since NovemberThe 10-year Treasury yield broke above 4.7% following the GDP report, hitting its highest level since November.
Persons: Johannes Eisele, Dow Jones, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, Meta, Thierry Wizman, UnitedHealth, Alex Harring, Mark Zuckerberg's, Hakyung Kim, Fred Imbert, Chris Zaccarelli, Sarah Min, — Brian Evans, — Jesse Pound Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty, Dow Jones, Caterpillar, IBM, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Federal, Traders, Meta, Business Machines, FX, Macquarie, Microsoft, Amazon, Merck, York Stock Exchange, Independent, Alliance, Investors, Treasury, Gross
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 09, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures fell on Wednesday night after tech juggernaut Meta Platforms reported its latest quarterly results. S&P 500 futures slid 0.6%, and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 1.1%. Meta Platforms plunged 15% in extended trading after the social media giant issued second-quarter revenue guidance that was lighter than expected. Fed funds futures trading suggests the first cut could take place at the September Fed meeting, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Dow Jones, Anastasia Amoroso, Northrop Grumman, Myers Squibb Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Traders, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Business Machines, Dow, Federal, FedWatch, Caterpillar, Honeywell, Northrop, American Airlines, Comcast, Merck, Bristol, Myers, CNBC Locations: New York City . U.S
Though mortgage rates are currently at a five-month high, they still should ultimately trend down this year. But if inflation remains sticky in the coming months, mortgage rates will likely remain elevated for longer than currently expected. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But because inflation has been somewhat sticky in recent months, mortgage rates have remained elevated so far this year.
Persons: Fannie Mae, Hamilton Fout Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron
US stocks traded mostly lower on Wednesday as traders eyed the release of first-quarter GDP data. AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders prepared for the release of first-quarter GDP data and digested the latest round of corporate earnings. AdvertisementInvestors are also preparing to take in more earnings results, which have been resilient so far this quarter. Facebook parent Meta Platforms will report after the closing bell, while Microsoft and Alphabet will report results after the close on Thursday. Tesla shares jumped 11% higher on Wednesday after the carmaker's latest earnings report.
Persons: Tesla, Organizations: Service, Federal, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Facebook, Microsoft, Revenue Locations: Here's
The S&P 500's recent sell-off is actually a sign the bull market is here to stay, according to Ken Fisher. AdvertisementThe recent sell-off in stocks isn't a reason for investors to flee the market — and it's actually a sign that the bull rally could push even higher, according to market veteran Ken Fisher. Advertisement"It is a bull market. Markets have been too "fixated" on various negative catalysts for stocks, Fisher added, pointing to investor concern regarding rate cuts and elevated inflation. "This bull market, just enjoy it, even though stocks are volatile from time to time," Fisher said.
Persons: Ken Fisher, , it's, Fisher, we've Organizations: Fox Business Network, Investors, Service, Fisher Investments
Firm dollar drags yen down closer to intervention range
  + stars: | 2024-04-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
A firm U.S. dollar had the yen locked near a fresh 34-year low on Tuesday, keeping investors on heightened intervention watch as they looked ahead to key U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Japan's rate decision this week. A firm U.S. dollar had the yen locked near a fresh 34-year low on Tuesday, keeping investors on heightened intervention watch as they looked ahead to key U.S. inflation report and the Bank of Japan's rate decision this week. Traders have been keeping wary eye as yen slips towards 155.00, a level considered by many participants as the new trigger for intervention by Japanese authorities. The weak yen complicates the BOJ's policy path, with some market players betting the central bank could come under pressure to hike rates sooner than it wants to slow the currency's decline. Markets are currently pricing in a 46% chance of the Fed's first rate cut starting in September, with November not far behind at 42%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Carol Kong, Shunichi Suzuki, BoE, Sterling, bitcoin Organizations: Bank of, Traders, Bank of Japan's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Japan's Finance, Federal Reserve, Investors, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's, European Central Bank, Bank of England Locations: Japan, Iran, Israel, Tokyo, Japan's, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Kong
Mortgage rates haven't changed much over the last week, but they could move up or down later this week depending on how a couple of big economic reports turn out. If these reports come in hotter than expected, mortgage rates could tick up higher. This index is expected to come in a bit lower than last month's reading, which would be good news for mortgage rates. This means we could see mortgage rates start to trend down in fall. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Chevron
The Nasdaq tumbled 2.1% on Friday as tech stocks plunged, marking its worst day since January 31. “US earnings updates this week will be key to see if they can keep topping expectations and buoying risk appetite in a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.”Tesla, Facebook-parent Meta, IBM, Microsoft and Alphabet all report first quarter earnings later this week. “Big Tech earnings may determine whether the stock market avoids its first four-week losing streak in two years,” wrote Chris Larkin, managing director of trading and investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley on Monday. About 15% of S&P 500 companies have reported first quarter earnings, and nearly three-quarters of those companies have posted a positive earnings-per-share surprise. But investors are nervously waiting for the Magnificent Seven, those massive Tech stocks that carry an outsized portion of market weight, to report.
Persons: Monday’s, , , They’re, Tesla, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, aren’t, we’re, Dave Sekera, ” Taylor Swift’s, Apple Taylor Swift, Liam Reilly, Department ”, Post Malone, Laura He Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Nasdaq, BlackRock, Federal Reserve, Facebook, IBM, Microsoft, “ Big Tech, Tech, Companies, Nvidia, Apple, Big Tech, Bank of America, Morningstar, Department, Spotify, Poets Department, Amazon Music, Apple Music, EV, Tesla Locations: New York, Wells, China, Germany, United States, Tesla’s, Europe
Once the Fed starts lowering its benchmark rate, mortgage rates should trend down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched up to 6.39% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they're expected to go down at some point this year.
Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Zillow Locations: Chevron
Mortgage rates were originally forecast to go down this year, but hotter-than-expected inflation data pushed them higher. This means we might not see mortgage rates drop until we get closer to fall. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, average 15-year mortgage rates were 6.39%, a 23-basis-point increase from the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. Once the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, Zillow Locations: Chevron
Investors had hoped that corporate earnings would help revive the stalled rally, but a strong start to the season hasn’t been enough to excite investors. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.10% in the week ending April 18, up from 6.88% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data released Thursday. Mortgage rates are climbing based on expectations that the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates anytime soon. The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions do influence them, and persistently hot inflation readings are keeping the Fed on hold. If inflation stalls any further, or even worsens, mortgage rates could climb higher this year.
Persons: , hasn’t, Jerome Powell, , , Michael Landsberg, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Israel, Brent, Bryan Mena, Freddie Mac, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Read, Anna Cooban, Tim Cook, Pham Minh Chinh, Cook, Apple “ Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Data, Employers, Fed, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management, Monetary Fund, Treasury, Investors, CNN, Federal, China Apple, Vietnamese, Apple Locations: New York, East, Iran, Israel, Syria, Vietnam, China, Hanoi, Beijing
Dollar takes a breather as investors ponder U.S. rates outlook
  + stars: | 2024-04-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The dollar was soft on Thursday as traders assessed the U.S. interest rates outlook in the wake of comments from Federal Reserve officials that cemented expectation of monetary settings remaining restrictive for a while longer. The yen strengthened 0.05% to 154.29 a dollar but remained close to the 34-year low of 154.79 touched on Tuesday. Japan last intervened in the currency market in 2022, spending an estimated $60 billion to defend the yen. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar was little changed at $0.6439, while the New Zealand dollar eased a bit to $0.5914 after spiking 0.6% on Wednesday.
Persons: Sterling, Michelle Bowman, Kristina Clifton, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal Reserve, Traders, Market Committee, Federal, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, IG, Japan, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Japan, South Korea, Tokyo, Seoul
Read previewFederal Reserve officials heaped more doubt on the timing of rate cuts this year, echoing Chair Jerome Powell in stating that the path to 2% inflation looks uncertain. The Fed has projected three rate cuts to come by the end of 2024. Fed Chair Powell suggested earlier in the week that rate cuts could be delayed, causing stocks to slide. Inflation risks haven't been lost on investors, who have been steadily dialing back their expectations for Fed rate cuts over the last few months. Markets are now expecting just one or two rate cuts by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool, down from six cuts that were anticipated at the start of 2024.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Loretta Mester, Mester, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, John Williams, It's, Williams, Powell, haven't Organizations: Service, Cleveland Fed, Business, York Fed
Until inflation slows further and the Federal Reserve is able to start lowering the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated. If the latest PCE numbers support the narrative that inflation is remaining stubbornly high, mortgage rates could inch up further. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Essentially Flat (+0.01%)The average 15-year mortgage rate is 6.12%, just a single basis point higher than last week. Mortgage rates also rose dramatically in 2023, though they started trending back down toward the end of the year.
Persons: you'll, It's, refinance Organizations: Federal Reserve, US, of, Fed, Zillow, FHA Locations: Chevron
The dollar stood just off its highest since early November against a handful of peer currencies on Tuesday, raising intervention worries as the yen languished at its lowest level since 1990 following hotter-than-expected U.S. retail sales. The dollar stood just off its highest since early November against a handful of peer currencies on Tuesday, raising intervention worries as the yen languished at its lowest level since 1990 following hotter-than-expected U.S. retail sales. In the U.S., retail sales rose 0.7% last month, compared with the 0.3% rise that economists polled by Reuters had forecast. The Japanese yen languished under the dollar's continued strength and large interest rate differential between the two countries, breaching 154 to hit a fresh 34-year low against the dollar on Monday. The offshore Chinese yuan was mostly unchanged at 7.2620 per dollar ahead of the key economic data releases out of China.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Shunichi Suzuki, Index's Simpson, bitcoin Organizations: Reuters, Federal Reserve, U.S ., U.S, Traders, Japanese Finance, European Central Bank Locations: China, U.S, Middle
Several major gauges of fear in the market are reflecting increased alarm from investors. @VX.1 1Y mountain The VIX over the past year At the same time, CNN's Fear and Greed Index has tipped into "fear" territory this week. Rising oil prices have also weighed on the stock market, as commodity traders bought in on expectations of escalating conflict in the Middle East. But he said the key threat to this outlook is if the conflict in the Middle East further spirals. "But, the caveat is, if things really go sideways in the Middle East, that could change the calculus."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alex McGrath, You've, Dow, Jason Heller, Heller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, Coastal Wealth Locations: East, Iran, Israel
Heightened tensions in the Middle East, including the possibility of Iran attacking Israel, sent stocks back down and oil prices higher. If the choice is between a weak economy with lower rates or a strong economy with higher rates, we'll take the strong economy every time. Low rates may help with valuation multiples, but it's a strong economy that leads to earnings growth and that's what we, as long-term investors care about. Shelter costs are a major sticking point for overall inflation, which makes Tuesday's housing starts and building permits report a key watch item. We'll get another look at housing with the release of the March existing home sales report on Thursday.
Persons: we've, we'll, Morgan Stanley, Wells, bode, we're, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Johnson, ERIC, JB Hunt, Kinder Morgan, DR, Ally, Huntington, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Abbott, Ethan Miller Organizations: Dow Jones, Wednesday, Federal Reserve, Abbott Labs, Cardiovascular Systems, Diagnostics, Procter & Gamble, Constellation Brands, Procter, T Bank, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, BK, PNC Financial, PNC, Ericsson, United Airlines, Interactive, ASML Holdings, US Bancorp, Citizens, Alcoa, CSX, Discover Financial, Nokia, Alaska Air, Blackstone BX, McLennan, Netflix, PPG Industries, Gamble, Financial, American Express, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Las Vegas Convention, Getty Locations: Iran, Israel, China, Marsh, Las Vegas , Nevada
Recent inflation reports spooked investors, sparking a sell-off on Wednesday, but defensive stocks could provide some stability the next time markets get rocky. Those fears have contributed to a pullback in the market, with the S & P 500 slipping around 1% since the start of April. Investors could consider rotating into more defensively focused names to prepare for market volatility. Roper, on the other hand, has struggled this year, with the software stock's shares falling slightly in 2024. He said this week that Coterra was the firm's only buy-rated name in the natural gas exploration and production space.
Persons: technology's, ServiceNow, LSEG . Roper, LSEG, Roper, TJX, Coterra, Josh Silverstein, Silverstein Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investors, CNBC, Beta, CNBC Pro, Roper Technologies, Nasdaq, Coterra Energy
How the corporate America is handling sticky inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates will be top of mind for investors in the week ahead, after this week's choppy moves. The first-quarter earnings season, which kicked off Friday, will give Wall Street insight into how businesses expect to weather an environment of elevated interest rates. More macro data, such as U.S. retail sales, will give insight into how the consumer is handling higher pricing pressures. First-quarter earnings season underway The corporate earnings season kicks into high gear in the week ahead. This week, the small cap Russell 2000 is on track for a losing week, down by more than 1%.
Persons: Bob Doll, CNBC's, Wolfe, Rob Ginsberg, Ginsberg, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, FactSet, Robert Haworth, Haworth, Charles Schwab, Johnson, D.R, KeyCorp Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Exxon Mobil, Costco, Apple, Crossmark, Investments, Investors, Bank of America, Consumer, U.S . Bank, Index, Retail, T Bank, Housing, Manufacturing, Hunt Transport Services, United Airlines, Johnson, Bank of New York Mellon, UnitedHealth Group, Northern Trust, CSX, Discover Financial Services, Prologis, U.S . Bancorp, Philadelphia Fed, American Express, Procter, Gamble, Fifth Third Bancorp, Schlumberger Locations: America, China, NAHB, Vegas Sands, U.S, Horton
Average 30-year mortgage rates increased to 6.88% this week, according to Freddie Mac. If this measure shows some slowing in inflation, mortgage rates could inch back down. It's likely that we'll need to wait for more data before it becomes clear how mortgage rates will trend this year. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments.
Persons: Freddie Mac, It's, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal Reserve, CPI, of Labor Statistics, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron
That means those saving cash in money market funds and Treasury bills can expect to see their rates stay higher for longer. The annualized seven-day yield on the Crane 100 list of the 100 largest taxable money funds is currently 5.13%. The appetite for money market funds is evident in the record amount of cash pouring into the products. Last week, there was $6.11 trillion sitting in money market funds, according to the Investment Company Institute , up from $5.87 trillion in mid-December. Then there are moderate risk investors with longer time horizons, which Vanguard surveys show are the majority of investors, he said.
Persons: They've, Peter Crane, Shelly Antoniewicz, Marguerita Cheng, you'll, Cheng, Roth, Barry Glassman, Glassman, he's, Roger Aliaga, Diaz, Vanguard's, Cash, Aliaga Organizations: Federal, Crane, Investment Company Institute, Blue, Global, CNBC, Wealth, Treasury, Vanguard
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