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☆ U.S. yields climb, S&P futures close higher after jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Issei KatoSummarySummary Companies March U.S. payrolls rise by 236,000 vs 239,000 estimateDollar strengthens, U.S. yields climbNikkei, S&P futures close higherNEW YORK, April 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields climbed and U.S. index futures closed modestly higher after employment data for March indicated the labor market remains tight, but was largely in line with market expectations. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said, compared with the 239,000 expectation of economists surveyed by Reuters. Data for February was revised higher to show 326,000 jobs were added instead of 311,000 as previously reported. U.S. stock index futures erased losses and turned higher after the report, while the dollar strengthened and U.S. Treasury yields rose as expectations the Federal Reserve will hike rates at its May meeting increased. The dollar index rose 0.167%, with the euro down 0.13% to $1.0906.

☆ Gold off one-year highs as dollar firms ahead of U.S. payrolls data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices slipped from one-year highs on Thursday as the dollar regained some ground, while investors awaited the U.S. non-farm payrolls report to gage the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategy. The economic data points this week were major components supporting gold prices, he added, while also noting some profit-booking ahead of the Good Friday holiday. Wednesday's data showed the U.S. services sector slowed more than expected in March. While gold is traditionally considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal. Markets see a 53.8% chance of the Fed standing pat on interest rates in May, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

☆ European markets are set to open mixed over global economic uncertainty
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European markets are expected to open mixed Thursday as investors continue to weigh up an uncertain global economic outlook. U.S. private payrolls rose by 145,000 in March, which showed job growth had slowed significantly more than anticipated. The ISM Purchasing Managers' Index showed a monthly decline, while another U.S. labor report on Wednesday showed job openings dropped to their lowest level in nearly two years. Investors are now looking ahead to non-farm payrolls data on Friday. Asia-Pacific markets largely fell on Thursday as Wall Street digested the latest ADP private payrolls report, which showed slowing job growth in March, while U.S. stock futures were near flat Wednesday night as investors also considered what the latest data would mean for the economy.

☆ Wall St ends lower, Treasury yields slide as data fuels recession jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 16, 2023. European shares edged lower as investors remained cautious, tilting toward defensive stocks amid economic uncertainty. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.16% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.45%. Emerging market stocks lost 0.10%. The dollar index rose 0.32%, with the euro down 0.47% to $1.09.

☆ S&P 500 dips, Treasury yields fall as weak data fuels recession fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 16, 2023. The Nasdaq joined the S&P 500 in negative territory, while defensive stocks helped keep the Dow modestly green. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.16% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.51%. Emerging market stocks lost 0.10%. The dollar index rose 0.32%, with the euro down 0.48% to $1.0899.

☆ S&P 500 dips, Treasury yields fall as soft data fuels recession worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.22% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.44%. Emerging market stocks lost 0.03%. Treasury yields slipped further, with the benchmark 10-year yield touching lows last seen in September as the weak data supported the notion of a "Fed pause." The dollar index rose 0.07%, with the euro down 0.25% to $1.0925. Gold prices briefly touched their highest level since March 2022 before reversing course after a spate of soft U.S. economic data.

Two-year yields have risen from a seven-month intraday low of 3.555% last Friday as Treasuries rallied on safe-haven buying. "Some of the banks there were in the spotlight, their stock prices are starting to at least stabilize," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute in Charlotte, North Carolina. The U.S. regional KBW bank index (.BKX) has tumbled about 25% this month, but has gained about 3.8% this week as tensions eased. Worries over inflation have prompted investors to reassess their expectations for monetary policy from a number of major central banks, including the Fed and European Central Bank. Oil edged lower in choppy trading as investors looked to pocket profits from two straight days of gains, and as markets debated supply tightness.

SummarySummary Companies Futures down: Dow 0.10%, S&P 0.17%, Nasdaq 0.22%March 28 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures slipped on Tuesday as Treasury yields rose amid easing worries about a banking crisis following First Citizens BancShares' U.S. regulator-backed deal for failed Silicon Valley Bank. Shares of First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA.O) fell 1% in premarket trading after surging more than 50% on Monday following its deal to acquire the deposits and loans of failed Silicon Valley Bank. Regional banks also rose, led by First Republic Bank's (FRC.N) 2.2% gain after a 12% rally on Monday. Later in the day, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr will testify before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs on "bank oversight" in the first of several hearings on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. ET, Dow e-minis were down 31 points, or 0.1%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 6.75 points, or 0.17%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 27.75 points, or 0.22%.

Bank shares rebounded sharply on Monday after First Citizens BancShares Inc (FCNCA.O) said it would acquire the deposits and loans of Silicon Valley Bank, whose collapse earlier this month sparked a selloff in the sector. "The fact that we've got answers on Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and Credit Suisse means that we have more answers than questions," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth in Boston. Lawmakers are expected to put U.S. bank regulators on the defensive over the unexpected failures of regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank when they testify before Congress later on Tuesday. The S&P 500 and Dow rose on Monday after the SVB deal was announced, while the Nasdaq Composite closed lower, led by a decline in technology-related stocks. The S&P index recorded five new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 13 new highs and 40 new lows.

☆ A credit crunch could worsen the bank turmoil and commercial real estate could be next domino to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Odds are, commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for the banking sector after this month's unrest. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," BofA's Michael Hartnett said. Regional banks have enormous exposure to commercial real estate loans. But this time around, it is commercial rather than residential real estate that may be in trouble. Are you worried about the impact of commercial real estate on the banking sector and the economy?

☆ A key indicator says a recession is guaranteed in 2023 — and Bill Ackman, Nouriel Roubini, and others are warning of trouble ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

From the central bank's latest rate hike to new developments in the ongoing bank crisis, a lot has happened in my absence. And all the while, Jerome Powell's favorite bond-market indicator is quietly telling us that a recession is all but guaranteed this year. Talk of basis points, yield spreads, and other market jargon is obscuring the key message here: Markets think a recession is guaranteed in 2023. How much credence as a recession signal do you give the bond market indicator? He said the current bank crisis isn't a redux of that era, or even of 2008.

☆ Asia shares bounce gingerly as bank fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.4%. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, which left Treasuries untraded in Asia and lightened currency trade. S&P 500 futures were flat and European futures rose 0.5%. The tense calm follows a Swiss government-backed buyout of Credit Suisse by UBS that seems, for now, to have cauterised concerns over European financial stability. The broader path for rates, meanwhile, is set to become clearer later in the week when the Fed and Bank of England set policy levels.

☆ Wall Street ends green on bank bounce as Fed takes focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Still, despite its recent resurgence, the S&P Banks index has lost more than 18% of its value just this month. "The Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points and the market won't care," Pursche added. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 20, 2023. The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 48 new highs and 114 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.75 billion shares, compared with the 12.63 billion average over the last 20 trading days.

☆ Morning Bid: Europe, US reverse bank jitter sell-offs: will Asia follow?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Global market skittishness over whether contagion is afoot within the banking sector appears to be waning. In fact, if European and U.S. markets on Monday are a prologue to Asian markets on Tuesday, investors can look forward to a rebound. The S&P Banking index (.SPXBK) ended the session up 0.6%, but even with Monday's advance, the index has plunged 21.3% this month. Reuters GraphicsEuropean Central Bank president Christine Lagarde insisted on Monday that the ECB has the tools to contend with financial market turbulence while fighting inflation, just days after announcing a hawkish a 50 basis point policy rate hike. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Wall St ends higher as bank contagion fears ease, Fed eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

UBS late on Sunday agreed to buy rival Credit Suisse (CSGN.S), for $3.23 billion, in a merger engineered by Swiss authorities to avoid more turmoil in the banking group. The S&P Banking index (.SPXBK) and the KBW Regional Banking index (.KRX) were higher following sharp losses last week. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank (SBNY.O) shook markets earlier this month. "Where it is another bank coming in, that is the kind of headline that helps underpin confidence in the banking system," Krosby said. The Credit Suisse takeover helped the market, but U.S.-listed shares of Credit Suisse were down sharply on Monday, while UBS Group shares were up.

Credit Suisse fell 8% in Europe and First Republic tumbled 30%. Banking troubles revived memories of the 2008 financial crisis, when dozens of institutions failed or were bailed out with billions of dollars of government and central bank money. Earlier this week, the franc plunged the most against the dollar in one day since 2015, when the Swiss central bank loosened its currency peg. Japan's Ministry of Finance, Financial Services Agency and Bank of Japan officials met on Friday evening to discuss financial markets. Masato Kanda, vice finance minister for international affairs, told reporters after the trilateral meeting that the government, the central bank and the banking watchdog would coordinate to ensure the stability of the financial system.

☆ Goldman Sachs just told us the banking crisis makes it more pessimistic about the economy - and other recession signals are blaring too
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The bank crisis that started with Silicon Valley Bank last Friday continues to unfold with what feels like to-the-minute developments. First Republic Bank branch on Park Avenue in New York City. In light of the bank runs, bank failures, and bank stock volatility, those odds are now at 35%, strategists said Thursday, citing "increased near-term uncertainty" surrounding the effects of small bank stress. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank marked the second and third largest bank failures in history, respectively, behind only Washington Mutual in 2008. She explained why you should be prepared for more interest-rate volatility as fears of a financial crisis rise.

☆ Silicon Valley Bank's failure might just spark a faster housing rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Now let's see how the fast-moving banking turbulence impacts the highly sensitive US housing market. "It seems that home sales activity has bottomed out, and 2023 will be the turning point for the housing market," she said. While her long-term outlook on a housing rebound hasn't changed, mortgage rates look set to fall faster than previously expected, which could allow more Americans to enter the housing market. And looking ahead to the Fed's meeting next week, Evangelou expects policymakers to moderate their aggressive policy. In other news:The logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse is seen at a branch office in Bern, Switzerland October 28, 2020.

☆ Silicon Valley Bank and inflation complicate the Fed’s next move
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Everyday now we've been talking about Silicon Valley Bank — SVB — and I've had to catch myself several times from saying SBF — Sam Bankman-Fried — the guy behind the other big financial collapse in recent months. A) No rate hike at allB) 25 basis pointsC) 50 basis pointsTweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know. Bank stocks are rising again as nerves calm — though SVB-driven fears are still niggling. Bank of America picked out a batch of financial stocks that offer upside right now amid the chaos. The token soared 15% as the February CPI print fueled more speculation for a smaller rate hike.

☆ Dollar little changed as U.S. inflation data poses quandary for Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro edged up 0.09% to $1.0739, but the dollar gained against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc. Fed funds futures showed the market's risk adverse mood in recent days eased as bets that the Fed would stand pat at its policy meeting March 21-22 declined. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank last week suggests greater Fed scrutiny of the banking sector may be in store as credit tightens. Futures priced in perhaps two Fed rate cuts by year's end, with the terminal rate seen at 4.179% in December, down from more than 5% last week. The Japanese yen weakened 0.69% at 134.13 per dollar, while the greenback rose rose 0.15% against the Swiss franc.

There's a big shift in rate expectations," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. Goldman Sachs (GS.N), among other big banks, said it no longer expects the Fed to deliver a rate hike at the end of its two-day policy meeting on March 22. "There's been a radical change in interest rate expectations and in that scenario the dollar has weakened," said Niles Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea. The Japanese yen strengthened 1.47% at 133.04 per dollar, while the dollar fell 1.23% against the Swiss franc at 0.910. Earlier, it hit a near one-month high of $1.0737, ahead of the European Central Bank's policy meeting on Thursday.

[1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023. Germany's Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) fell as much as 12.7%, while Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) hit a new record low after falling more than 15%. Dowding said he did not think that a lot of the issues affecting U.S. banks would be present in European lenders. It said Silicon Valley Bank UK had loans of around 5.5 billion pounds and deposits of around 6.7 billion pounds as of March 10. U.S. banks lost more than $100 billion in stock market value late last week following SVB's failure, while European banks have now lost a similar amount, a Reuters calculation showed.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead: Inflation data on deck for markets hit by worries about Fed, banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - A critical inflation report next week will test a U.S. stock market already consumed by worries over Federal Reserve hawkishness and potential fallout from the largest bank failure since the financial crisis. A hotter-than-expected consumer price report on Tuesday, however, could reignite fears of jumbo-sized Fed rate hikes like those that rocked markets last year. After a big rebound in January, the benchmark index is now clinging to a 0.6% gain for 2023. The consumer price report is followed the next day by more inflation data, on producer prices. Besides signs of falling inflation, reassurance for investors could come if it became clearer that SVB’s issues were unlikely to spread.

☆ Just like that: Market pricing swings back to quarter-point Fed rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A trader works on the floor during morning trading at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on March 10, 2023 in New York City. "In all, the data do not argue for a 50 [basis point] rate hike by the Fed on March 22 despite the strong payroll advance," said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide. "The Fed can take comfort in the rise in the supply of labor and the easing of upward pressure on wages to maintain a 25 [basis point] rate increase," Bostjancic added. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. "The move down on 50 basis point odds was hard to separate from the collapse of SVB," said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab.

☆ Cathie Wood's ARK Fund set for worst week since Sept as higher rates loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Tesla (TSLA.O), the fund's top holding, is down nearly 11% for the week to date, while online education company 2U Inc (TWOU.O) is down nearly 18% for the week. Overall, the fund is down approximately 10% for the week to date, its worst weekly performance since an 11.1% decline in the week ending Sept. 23, according to Refinitiv data. None of the 27 companies in the fund's portfolio are in positive territory for the week. Higher rates weigh heavily on technology stocks by increasing the cost of borrowing and decreasing the value of expected future profits. "(ARK) is a good barometer of sentiment toward higher risk, higher reward investments.

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