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Data showed the U.S. trade deficit in goods increased moderately in January, with both imports and exports rising solidly. FEDWATCHBofA Global Research warned the Fed could even hike interest rates to nearly 6%. "We're talking about stickier inflation in the economy and higher interest rates for longer. ET, Dow e-minis were up 43 points, or 0.13%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 3.5 points, or 0.09%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 2.25 points, or 0.02%. The three main indexes are headed for monthly declines, with the blue-chip Dow (.DJI) in the red for the year.

☆ Fed should not rely too much on market reaction to guide policy, Goolsbee says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Feb 28 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve must supplement traditional government data and readings from financial markets with real-time, on-the-ground observations of economic conditions if it is to make good policy, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Tuesday. "It is a danger and a mistake for policymakers to rely too heavily on market reactions" like stock and bond market gyrations that "tell us which way the markets want the Fed to move," he said. That's slightly higher than where Fed policymakers in December signaled they would need to take the policy rate. Fed policymakers will provide updated projections on the rate path and economy at the end of their March 21-22 meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier this month said one of the U.S. central bank's most important resources is the "haul" of information on local economies and communities gleaned from regional Fed banks like the one that Goolsbee now heads.

☆ Futures slip as yields rise on bets of higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The gains, however, were not enough to reverse monthly losses for the three main indexes, with the blue-chip Dow (.DJI) in the red for the year after strong economic data suggested the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer. FEDWATCHThe yield on two-year Treasury notes , which track investors' expectations of the path of interest rates, rose to 4.8%, trading just below a near four-month high hit in the previous session. Yields are climbing higher in the U.S. and that's pushing down equity markets," said Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets. "We're talking about stickier inflation in the economy and higher interest rates for longer. ET, Dow e-minis were down 25 points, or 0.08%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 4 points, or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 18.25 points, or 0.15%.

☆ Morning Bid: Irksome inflation won't die down
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Friday's latest U.S. inflation surprise was matched in Europe on Tuesday, with French and Spanish headline inflation rates unexpectedly rising again in February - making for an uncomfortable final day of a transformative month for markets. And worryingly, market-based measures of inflation expectations are rising sharply again too. U.S. two-year 'breakeven' inflation rates , taken from inflation-protected Treasury securities, have jumped 80 basis points this month to 2.8% - wiping away the prior assumption that inflation would return to the Fed's 2% target over two years. In Europe, the five year, five-year forward inflation linked swap has jumped 20bps to a 9-month high just under 2.5%. Stock markets steadied after early losses, with U.S. futures only slightly in the red ahead of the open and month end.

☆ Premarket stocks: Don't underestimate the American shopper
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

All that extra cash should support strong spending through February and perhaps March, said Bank of America analysts. That means the Fed may use the strong data as an excuse to keep hiking interest rates. Recession risk may be deferred, but it certainly hasn’t dissipated.”PPI, housing starts and bald spots: What investors are watching today▸ Thursday morning brings two big data releases: The January Producer Price Index and housing starts. ▸ Housing starts, a measure of new home construction, have declined every month since August. Housing starts are expected to decline slightly.

Austan Goolsbee, currently president of the Chicago Fed, served as a top economic adviser to former President Barack Obama. The White House is considering nominating Austan Goolsbee , who became president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago last month, to serve as vice chair of the Federal Reserve’s board of governors, according to people familiar with the matter. Mr. Goolsbee, 53, served as a top economic adviser to former President Barack Obama and before his appointment this year was a professor of economics at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business.

☆ Brainard's move to the White House leaves a big gap for Biden to fill at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In her more than eight years as a Federal Reserve official, Lael Brainard was an influential voice, particularly for the side that favored keeping monetary policy loose and interest rates low. "Brainard's departure from the Fed leaves a dove-sized hole in its monetary policy," Beacon Policy Advisors wrote in its daily newsletter Wednesday. Indeed, Brainard's influence only accelerated the longer she served as a Fed governor. Her subsequent appointment in 2022 as vice chair solidified her influence, installing her as part of the "troika" of policy-directing power that includes current Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Some candidates outside the Fed ranks, according to Guha, include Karen Dynan, Jason Furman, Janice Eberly and Christina Romer, all of whom served under former President Barack Obama (and his vice president, Biden).

☆ Factbox: Some potential successors to Brainard at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Meanwhile, analysts and Fed observers are already swapping notes on potential replacements for Brainard at the Fed from a bench of economists aligned with Biden's Democrats, who control the U.S. Senate. MARY DALYDaly is president of the San Francisco Fed, ascending to that position in 2018 after 22 years at the regional Fed bank, including a stint as its director of research. Furman has been a prominent, Twitter-savvy commentator on macroeconomic and Fed policy. He has a PhD from the University of Virginia and served as a Fed economist for a little over a year in the mid-1990s. With a PhD from Stanford University, he's held staff positions at the Fed board and the San Francisco Fed, where he also served as president before moving to the New York Fed role in 2018.

The month-to-month decline in the Adobe Digital Price Index, a measure of online shopping designed to mirror the basket of goods included in the government's Consumer Price Index, was an even faster 3.2%. U.S. shoppers spent $35.27 billion online overall during Cyber Week, the period from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. Until that point online prices for years had been a drag on overall inflation. "If current trends continue, goods prices should begin to exert downward pressure on overall inflation in coming months," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week. As goods inflation has begun to slow prices for services have accelerated.

☆ Austan Goolsbee Named Next President of the Chicago Fed
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Austan Goolsbee, who served as a top economic adviser to former President Barack Obama , will become the next president and chief executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the bank said Thursday. Mr. Goolsbee, 53, is a professor of economics at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. He was chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers from 2010 to 2011.

☆ Economist Austan Goolsbee named next Chicago Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Economist Austan Goolsbee will take over as president of the Chicago Federal Reserve early next year as the central bank weighs critical policy moves ahead, according to an announcement Thursday. "Austan is an exceptional choice to be the next president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Goolsbee comes to the Chicago Fed at a sensitive time for the central bank. A Chicago Fed release announcing the appointment said the new district president is "a leading empirical economist" whose research spans a wide variety of topics. Goolsbee called the Chicago Fed "one of the crown jewels" of the central bank system.

☆ Austan Goolsbee to replace Charlie Evans as Chicago Fed president in January
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailAustan Goolsbee to replace Charlie Evans as Chicago Fed president in JanuaryCNBC's Steve Liesman reports on news regarding leadership at the Chicago Fed.

☆ Five experts react to October's lighter-than-expected inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFive experts react to October's lighter-than-expected inflation reportAustan Goolsbee, former CEA chairman and Booth School of Business professor, Tyler Goodspeed, Cato Institute adjunct scholar and former acting CEA chairman, Nancy Davis, chief investment officer at Quadratic Capital Management, Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. financial economist at Oxford Economics, and CNBC's Steve Liesman and Rick Santelli break down October's softer-than-expected inflation report.

☆ Four experts break down strong third-quarter U.S. GDP data
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFour experts break down strong third-quarter U.S. GDP dataAustan Goolsbee, former CEA chairman and Booth School of Business professor, Joe LaVorgna, former Trump White House economist and chief economist at SMBC Nikko Securities America, Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel, Nancy Davis, chief investment officer at Quadratic Capital Management, and CNBC's Rick Santelli join 'Squawk Box' to react to the latest third-quarter GDP data.

☆ China's Q3 GDP delay: The rule of data is that nobody hides good news, says professor
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina's Q3 GDP delay: The rule of data is that nobody hides good news, says professorAustan Goolsbee of The University of Chicago Booth School of Business says given the negative economic impact of China's zero-Covid policy, the country's third quarter GDP data probably showed "something that they didn't want to be released" during the 20th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.

☆ There's a decently high chance of a hard landing from the Fed, says Austan Goolsbee
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's a decently high chance of a hard landing from the Fed, says Austan GoolsbeeMick Mulvaney, former acting White House chief of staff, Austan Goolsbee, former CEA chairman and Booth School of Business professor, and CNBC's Rick Santelli join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss what's causing a downturn in the markets.

☆ Jay Powell just went full Volcker
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

But in just a few months, that sizable jump has become the norm, and it’s almost certainly sealed Jay Powell’s status as the Paul Volcker of the 2020s. “Chair Powell just announced another extreme interest rate hike while forecasting higher unemployment,” Warren tweeted. Bottom line: Powell continues to draw from the Volcker playbook, which means he’s unlikely to waver on the Fed’s target rate of 2% inflation, lest the central bank’s credibility take another blow. Only time will tell whether that 40-plus-year-old playbook still applies in an economy that’s fundamentally different from the one Volcker confronted. Trump also lied about the square footage of his Trump Tower triplex apartment to inflate the value at over $300 million, James alleges.

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