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$100 oil could be the October surprise no one wanted
  + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
New York CNN —The Middle East is in chaos, and the oil market is remarkably calm about it. The chill reaction in the oil market reflects a boy-who-cried-wolf mindset that has set in. Even just two years ago, oil prices skyrocketed to $130 a barrel in March 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil prices skyrocketed in 2019 when Saudi oil facilities were damaged in an attack that US officials blamed on Iran. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices above $100 a barrel, according to ClearView.
Persons: , Bob McNally, , It’s, McNally, George W, Bush, Israel, ” Helima, Joe Biden, Croft, internationalize, Kevin Book, ClearView, it’s, Biden Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Rapidan Energy Partners, Israel, RBC Capital Markets, CNN, CIA, ClearView Energy Partners, International Energy Agency, RBC, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Citigroup, Citi Locations: New York, Iran, China, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, ” Helima Croft, Ukraine, Israel, Saudi, Strait, Hormuz, Riyadh, Persian
Wall Street is turning more bullish
  + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —It’s tough being a Wall Street bear these days. The S&P 500 index has climbed nearly 15% this year and clinched 30 record-high closes. The new backdrop of cooling inflation coupled with rate cuts on the horizon is prompting investors to up their bullish wagers. Evercore ISI raised its price target to 6,000 for the S&P 500, a reversal from its previous, more gloomy 4,750 target. Much of the S&P 500 index’s returns are tied to the mega-cap tech Magnificent Seven stocks, leaving the market dependent on just a handful of names to continue its monster run.
Persons: New York CNN —, Goldman Sachs, , Julian Emanuel, index’s, Bacon, Danielle Wiener, Bronner, fuming, Jin Bian, Samantha Delouya, Bian, , Ron DeSantis, isn’t, Bill 264, Sellers, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, ISI, Evercore ISI, Shoppers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, CNN Locations: New York, Monday’s, Florida, Tampa , Florida, Nanjing, China
There is probably no one, other than Donald Trump, more central to his New York trial — the first criminal trial of an American president — than Stormy Daniels. Today, in a courtroom in Lower Manhattan, Daniels took the stand for several hours. She spoke quickly, unspooling so many salacious details that the judge overseeing the case balked at some of the testimony, implying that it was gratuitously vulgar, and the defense unsuccessfully sought a mistrial. Daniels has told her story widely, but never to jurors, and not with Trump in the room. During cross-examination, which is expected to continue on Thursday, Trump’s lawyers sought to paint Daniels as a liar driven by greed.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Stormy Daniels, Trump, Daniels, unnerve Trump, Trump’s Organizations: Trump Locations: New York, Lower Manhattan
On top of that, the latest U.S. jobs market scorecard will be released along with more mega-cap earnings. This week, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield briefly climbed above 4.7% for the first time since November. That's down sharply from the six or seven rate cuts investors were anticipating coming into the year. April jobs Investors will also get an update on the labor picture next week, with the release of the April nonfarm payrolls report set for Friday. Corporate earnings season will also ramp up in the week ahead with a slew of consumer-facing companies set to report.
Persons: Stocks, Powell, David Alcaly, Jerome Powell's, we've, they're, Brian Nick, Matt Stucky, it's, Stucky, Dow Jones, Nick, Archer, Eli Lilly, Kraft, Estee, Ingersoll Rand, Stanley Black, Decker, Hershey Organizations: Nasdaq, Google, Microsoft, Treasury, Lazard Asset Management, Macro, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company, Fed, Apple, Micro Computer, Dallas Fed, Paramount, ON Semiconductor, Chicago PMI, Prudential Financial, Devices, Storage, Diamondback Energy, Caesars Entertainment, Corning, Daniels, Midland, Molson Coors Beverage, Marathon Petroleum, GE Healthcare Technologies, PayPal, ADP, P Global, Manufacturing, Oil, MGM Resorts International, Allstate, Etsy, eBay, Qualcomm, MetLife, First, Devon Energy, Cruise Line Holdings, Brands, Marriott International, Kraft Heinz, Pfizer, Companies, CVS Health, Generac, Mastercard, Labor, Nation Entertainment, Booking Holdings, Natural Resources, Motorola Solutions, Expedia, EOG, Coterra Energy, Dominion Energy, Howmet Aerospace, ConocoPhillips, Moderna, PMI, Services PMI Locations: U.S, Chicago, McDonald's, Albemarle, EOG Resources
What a Trump 2.0 Economy Would Look Like
  + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com   time to read: +10 min
Overall, the Biden economic plan draws less than favorable reviews from voters. So, too, are promises of more tax cuts and a sharp curtailment of immigration. Trump was upset in 2019 that Powell was not doing enough to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy. The Trump tax cuts are set to expire in 2025, giving a second Trump administration the opportunity to fight that battle again. “A Trump 2.0 presidency would inherit very large fiscal deficits from the Biden Administration, rising interest expenses and an economy probably more prone to bouts of inflation,” the report said.
Persons: Muhammad Ali, Joe Frazier, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Trump, There’s, ” Trump, it’s, , Patrick Horan, , Tony Soprano, Patrick Kilbane, ” Kilbane, “ Trump, ” George Calhoun, Calhoun, ” Matt Gertken, Alex Nowrasteh, ” Michael Clemens, Clemens, Jerome Powell, Powell, Xi Jinping, Maria Bartiromo, reappoint Powell, Steve Mnuchin, ” Maxime Darmet, Darmet, Kevin McCarthy Organizations: Manila ”, Trump, CNBC, Monday, White, George Mason University, Ullmann Wealth Partners, Republican Party, Senate, Affordable, Quantitative, Stevens Institute of Technology, TikTok, Democratic, BCA Research, Labor, CATO Institute, Peterson Institute for International, University of Colorado, Federal Reserve, Federal, Biden, Fox Business, Trump Cabinet, House, Allianz Research, Biden Administration, U.S, Allianz Trade, Congress, GOP Locations: Manila, COVID, China, U.S, America, France
A Ukrainian drone struck an oil storage depot in western Russia on Friday, causing a massive blaze, officials said, as Kyiv’s forces apparently extended their attacks on Russian soil ahead of the war’s two-year anniversary. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to hit more targets inside Russian border regions this year. The Russian city of Belgorod, also near the Ukrainian border, canceled its traditional Orthodox Epiphany festivities on Friday due to the threat of Ukrainian drone strikes. The Mash news outlet had earlier reported that a Ukrainian drone fell on the plant’s premises Thursday but caused no damage. The same depot was struck by a Ukrainian drone in May last year, but the damage apparently was less significant.
Persons: Vladimir Putin’s, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Maxim Yegorov, Alexander Bogomaz Organizations: Ukrainian, Ukraine’s Intelligence Service, RBC, Gov Locations: Ukrainian, Russia, Ukraine, Russian, Belgorod, Tambov, Moscow, Bryansk, russia, ukraine
Ukraine said it damaged two Russian command aircraft — a Russian A-50 radar early-warning plane and Ilyushin Il-22 airborne command post — on Sunday, hitting the planes with its air defense systems. A photo that purports to show the wing of a Russian Il-22 aircraft shared by pro-war Russian milblogger Fighterbomber. Considering those losses together, Manon said: "For the Russian Air Force, it's kind of embarrassing." Given the limited supply, the latest developments are "a pretty big loss" for Russia, Manon said, adding that these aircraft are a key resource for Russia. Ukraine says it needs more air defense equipment, with Russia trying to erode Ukraine's stockpiles to clear the way for unobstructed attacks.
Persons: , Rajan Manon, Manon, Gustav Gressel, Wagner, Sefa, shootdowns Organizations: Service, Business, Ilyushin, European Council, Foreign Relations, UK Ministry of Defence, Russian Air Force, Wagner Group, Anadolu Agency, Getty, NATO, Ukrainian Air Force Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Russia, Belarus, Minsk .
The Pakistani military said it had successfully repelled an attack by militants on an air base in central Pakistan on Saturday. The attempt to breach the Mianwali Training Air Base occurred a day after 14 soldiers traveling in a convoy were ambushed and killed in Baluchistan Province, in the southwest. That has fed growing tensions between the Pakistani government and Taliban officials, who have rejected Pakistani accusations of providing shelter to militant groups, including their ally, the Pakistani Taliban. The fighter jets on the air base, which are stored inside concrete hangars, escaped harm, but three other aircraft described as nonoperational were damaged. It was not clear if those defending the air base suffered any casualties.
Organizations: Mianwali Training Air Base, Jihad, Defense Locations: Pakistan, Mianwali, Baluchistan Province, Jihad Pakistan, Afghanistan, Pakistani
Israel's inability to anticipate the attack was a "colossal" intelligence failure, analysts say. Israel has one of the most sophisticated intelligence networks in the Middle East. AdvertisementAdvertisementIsrael was rocked by a wave of unprecedented attacks carried out by Hamas fighters on Saturday, with reports of thousands of rockets being fired into the country and gunmen roaming the streets. Observers have noted that Israel's failure to anticipate the attack, which likely took months of complex planning, is a failure of their famously sophisticated intelligence agencies. There have also been unconfirmed reports of IDF soldiers and Israeli civilians being captured by Hamas fighters and taken to Gaza.
Persons: , Eli Maron, Frank Gardner, Israel, Gardner, Paul Adams, John Sparks, Ammar Awad, Adams, Mohammed Deif, Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: Service, Israel, Hamas, Observers, IDF, Israeli Navy, BBC, Sky News, REUTERS, paraglider, Army Radio, Al Locations: Israel, Egypt, Syria, Gaza, Sderot, Aqsa, Jerusalem
Morning Bid: Nervy bond bounce on soft jobs and oil
  + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
[1/2] A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. Although both oil and bond yields calmed somewhat overnight, U.S. crude plunged by more than $5 per barrel on Wednesday. The tentative bond bid and shifting interest rate picture stopped the rot in stock markets too, with Wall St stocks rallying on Wednesday and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) staging its biggest daily gain since August. But in a sign of the nervousness, European stock markets stalled again and Wall St futures were back in the red. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, Loretta Mester, Lamb Weston, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Wall, Metro Bank, U.S, Federal, San Francisco Fed, Richmond Fed, Cleveland Fed, Treasury, Brands, Constellation Brands, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wall, York
Srettha Thavisin, Thailand's prime minister, arrives at the Thai Parliament in Bangkok, Thailand, on Monday, Sept. 11, 2023. Srettha, Pheu Thai's choice for leader, was appointed prime minister on Aug. 22 — the same day that former prime minister and Pheu Thai founder Thaksin Shinawatra returned to Thailand after 15 years of self-exile. watch nowThe prime minister also pledged to relieve the country's debt problems. "PM Srettha will slowly implement Pheu Thai's populist economic policies as he has to meet public expectations," said Dusadeeisariyakul. Other experts warned against overthinking the fiscal damage since many of Pheu Thai's populist pledges may not materialize.
Persons: Srettha, Valeria Mongelli, Srettha Thavisin, Pheu, Thaksin Shinawatra, Thaksin's, Pimrapaat Dusadeeisariyakul, Friedrich Naumann, Thaksin, Stratfor, Fitch, Teerasak Siripant Organizations: Thai, Bloomberg, Getty, Pracharat Party, United Thai Nation Party, Bhumjathai Party, Friedrich, Friedrich Naumann Foundation, Fitch, Bower Group Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, Thai
Morning Bid: Transatlantic surprise gap opens up again
  + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. And the gap between those two gauges, which had halved from July peaks, is starting to yawn wider yet again. Although the steep annual drop in Chinese exports and imports last month was marginally better than forecast, the ongoing funk in activity remains stark and threatens Beijing's overall economic growth target of about 5%. At least six senior Fed officials are in speaking engagements later on Thursday - including Fed board member Michelle Bowman and New York Fed chief John Williams. Events to watch for on Thursday:* U.S. weekly jobless claims, Q2 labor cost and productivity revisions* Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman, New York Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed chief Lorie Logan all speak.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan, Andrew Bailey, Michelle Bowman, John Williams, bourses steadied, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, Joe Biden, Susan Fenton Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, U.S, Federal, Treasury, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Fed, New York Fed, Apple, Beijing, Federal Reserve, Michelle Bowman , New York Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, United States, Europe, China, Brent, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Japan, Asia, Michelle Bowman , New, Atlanta, India, New Delhi
Elsewhere in Asian FX markets, China's yuan slid to a 10-month low on Wednesday through 7.32 per dollar and is a whisker from plumbing depths not recorded since late 2007. Investors could get further reminders on the currency's vulnerability from Chinese trade and FX reserves figures on Thursday. Chinese trade has been one of the biggest economic red flags this year. Beijing's nominal FX reserves have risen this year, even as the nominal value of Beijing's holdings of U.S. Treasuries has fallen to a 14-year low. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- China trade (August)- Malaysia interest rate decision- Australia trade (August)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, Treasuries, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, FX, Asian FX, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, India, Japan, Asian, Beijing, U.S, Malaysia, Australia
"Further progress is likely to become more difficult as base effects fade, and supply-constraints could drive global energy and food prices higher again." Brent crude prices have risen 27% since mid-year and U.S. crude is up 30%, with U.S. retail pump prices already up almost 10% so far since June. Oil and inflation expectationsReuters GraphicsSLOWING DESCENTAnd alongside creeping worries about rising debt supply, the long end of bond markets has been rattled again by the oil price jump. And this has been a far bigger influence on the inflation trajectory than oil prices per se. Yet, restive crude prices will still cloud a messy and tricky battle with inflation expectations just as policy tightening cycles near an end.
Persons: Brent that's, Christian Keller, Akash Utsav, Andrew Goodwin, there's, George H.W, Jamie Freed Organizations: Brent, UBS, Organization for Economic Cooperation, Development, Barclays, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, U.S, Treasury, Oxford, Monetary Fund, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Russia, tailwind, U.S, Europe, Britain, West, George H.W . Bush
A Ukrainian drone strike damaged four Russian transport planes at a Russian airbase in Pskov, per reports. The strike comes as Ukraine ramps up its attacks in Russia to bring to the war home to Putin. Satellite imagery suggests two of the planes were destroyed and two were significantly damaged. One of the Russian Il-76 aircraft destroyed at Pskov Air Base by Ukrainian drones earlier this week. Another damaged IL-76 aircraft has same black spot.
Persons: By8tnSE6wd — Brady Africk, Mikhail Vedernikov, Dmitry Peskov Organizations: Putin, Service, Russian, Russia, Pskov Air Base, Ministry of Defense, Reuters, NBC, Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, Kremlin Locations: Ukrainian, Pskov, Ukraine, Russia, Wall, Silicon, Russian, Moscow, Russia's
Morning Bid: Bonds calm down but Chinese markets smolder
  + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanRestive bonds showed signs of calm on Wednesday, but China's struggling economy and markets continue to unnerve world markets. A twin jolt from resurgent western debt yields and China's deepening economic funk and property sector troubles have made for a bumpy August to date. After a slew of dour retail, industrial and property investment numbers earlier this week, China reported on Wednesday that home prices fell for the first time this year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Mike Segar, Mike Dolan Restive, swooned, Goldman Sachs, Neel Kashkari, I'm, Fitch, JPMorgan Chase, Mike Dolan, Emelia Sithole Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Minneapolis Fed, United States, AAA, JPMorgan, Bank of America, of, Cisco, Amcor, New, New York Fed, . Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Wall St, China, United, New York, Canada
Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoAug 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Markets are betting that the Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in more than 40 years is over. The short end of the bond market was a bit more stable, reflecting the view that the Fed is done raising rates. The dollar is nudging 145.00 yen, around where the Bank of Japan spent record yen-buying sums late last year as the yen hurtled to a 33-year low.
Persons: Yen, Dado Ruvic, Jamie McGeever, Brent, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Reserve Bank of India, India, Hong Kong
The two-day jump in gasoline prices — the biggest in a year — is combining with a rally in wheat and other agricultural commodities. All told, gas prices have spiked 9 cents in 48 hours. Lower gas prices have been central to progress on slowing price increases. The IMF warned on Tuesday that grain prices could rise by 10% to 15% because of the collapse of the grain deal. Yawger noted that soybean futures have also climbed sharply amid concerns about high heat hurting crops in the United States.
Persons: haven’t, , , Patrick De Haan, unnerve, Jerome Powell, Francisco Blanch, Joe Brusuelas, Brusuelas, Robert Yawger, Yawger, De Haan Organizations: New York CNN, Federal Reserve, AAA, unnerve ’, Bank of America, RSM, IMF, Mizuho Securities, Hurricanes, Nature, ExxonMobil, CNN Locations: Russia, Ukraine, United States, Baton Rouge
[1/5] Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan greets supporters at the AK Party headquarters in Ankara, Turkey May 15, 2023. His six-party alliance did not attract as many nationalist voters as expected, partly due to support for Kilicdaroglu's candidacy from a large pro-Kurdish party, the officials said. Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu are expected to meet Ogan in person in the coming days. Given their conservative views, Erdogan and Ogan are seen as easier allies, even though the president's alliance includes a small Islamist Kurdish party that Ogan also opposes. "His motto will be: if you vote for Kilicdaroglu he will be a lame duck," said another senior opposition official who acknowledged a tough road ahead.
"The winner has undoubtedly been our country," Erdogan said in a speech to cheering supporters at the headquarters of his ruling Islamist-rooted AK Party in the capital Ankara overnight. Going into the election, the opposition had sensed its best chance yet of unseating Erdogan, encouraged by polls showing him trailing his main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu. But the results suggested Erdogan and his AK Party had been able to rally conservative voters despite a cost-of-living crisis. [1/4] Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and AK Party (AKP) gather on election night, in Istanbul, Turkey May 15, 2023. "During the campaign period ahead of the runoff, President Erdogan is likely to emphasise stability as he already retains the majority in the parliament," Dalay said.
Turkey election rivals both claim early lead, but runoff is likely
  + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Supporters of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attend a rally ahead of the May 14 presidential and parliamentary elections, in Istanbul, Turkey May 12, 2023. Turkey appears headed for a presidential election runoff, with the parties of Tayyip Erdogan and opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu claiming the lead. Early results put Erdogan comfortably ahead, but as the count continued his advantage eroded, with a runoff on May 28 beckoning. Ankara's opposition mayor Mansur Yavas said a count by his party suggested Kilicdaroglu was ahead with 47.42%, while Erdogan had 46.48%. His government's slow response to a devastating earthquake in southeast Turkey that killed 50,000 people added to voters' dismay.
May 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The White House said First Republic was "severely mismanaged," the takeover protects depositors and the current banking turmoil bears no resemblance to 2008. Anyone who went long mega tech and short regional U.S. banks on Dec. 31 will be sitting pretty today. Expectations for further tightening this year are far from certain, and are gradually being pushed into the third quarter. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) were 0.3% lower on Thursday, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) lost 0.4%. Data showed that new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods fell more than expected in March, suggesting that business spending on equipment was likely a drag on economic growth in the first quarter. Wells Fargo lowered its forecast for U.S. GDP growth by 100 basis points to a 0.8% rise. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, dropped to 101.4 on fresh concerns over a U.S. slowdown. U.S. crude futures edged up 0.3% to $74.5 per barrel, while Brent crude futures rose 0.5% to $78.09 per barrel.
Morning Bid: Tech tally in focus, China alarms Europe
  + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Otherwise, a packed earnings season dominates this week's investment radar as more than a third of S&P500 companies report. Including Intel (INTC.O), those five tech stocks have accounted for two-thirds of the S&P500's gains this year - with the Artificial Intelligence craze sparked by the emergence of ChatGPT adding a new non-cyclical attraction to the sector. But before markets get a taste of Q1 tech profits, the reverberations from last month's banking blow-up are still being absorbed. European stocks were slightly negative and U.S. stock futures also marginally in the red ahead of Wall Street's open. The dollar was mixed - up against Asian currencies but off against European currencies amid hawkish European Central Bank soundings on interest rates.
April 13 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. The Asian/Pacific calendar is pretty light on Thursday, with Chinese trade and Australian unemployment figures for March the main events. Music to investors' - and Fed officials' - ears, but the feelgood factor was snuffed out by the Fed minutes. Fed officials are right to be worried about credit conditions. Recent public remarks from Fed officials suggest they are less worried now.
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