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☆ Here's what usually happens to the S&P 500 during a presidential election week
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

What happens to stocks during election week? In general, the market has a slightly bullish bent during election week, but you can slice it different ways. The average percentage change for the S & P 500 in the week of the election is up 0.7%, with the index gaining 63% of the time, according to Birinyi Associates. That is why the S & P 500 is only 2% below its historic high. S & P 500 earnings estimates Q3: +8.4% Oct. 1: +6.0% Q4: +10.7% Technology: +14.6% Source: LSE Seasonals are important as well The seasonal trend is very strong.

Persons: Phil Mackintosh, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Birinyi Associates, Nasdaq, Democrat, Republican, LSE

☆ Why the stock market will drop 7% by mid-November, according to a technical analyst
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market could face a 7% correction by mid-November, says Fundstrat's Mark Newton. AdvertisementThe stock market looks poised for a 7% correction by mid-November, according to technical analyst Mark Newton of Fundstrat. AdvertisementNewton is monitoring the 5,900 level on the S&P 500 as potential resistance for the index. The S&P 500 traded at around 5,850 on Friday. "This market has seemingly 'dodged a bullet' thus far during one of the historically worst periods during most election years.

Persons: Fundstrat's Mark Newton, —, Mark Newton of, Newton, Tom Lee's Organizations: Investor, Service, Equity, Technology, RSI Locations: Newton, Mark Newton of Fundstrat

☆ September living up to its reputation as a difficult, choppy month
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

September is living up to its reputation as a difficult month. " In other words, a tough, choppy market for investors. The markets opened positive, with a nice lift from Oracle , which is keeping the expanding artificial intelligence story going. The company's positive comments on AI helped lift the hyperscalers ( Amazon , Microsoft , Alphabet ) as well. Put this all together, and it reinforces the view that there is no reason to stick your neck out.

Persons: Goldman Sachs Organizations: Oracle, Microsoft, Nvidia, Taiwan Semiconductor, JPMorgan Chase, Barclays, Dow Locations: midmorning

(This is CNBC Pro's live coverage of Monday's Wall Street chatter as global markets sell off. — Lisa Kailai Han 7:02 a.m.: How long sell-offs typically last Bad news: The current market sell-off may have further to go. — Lisa Kailai Han 6:09 a.m.: Oppenheimer's Stoltzfus: Best to not 'jump to conclusions' Investors need to have a cool head as global markets sell off, according to Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus. — Fred Imbert 5:51 a.m.: Global markets in an 'aggressive risk-unwind', Vital Knowledge says Fears of a U.S. recession are pressuring global markets, leading investors around the world to sell some of this year's top winners, according to Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge. "Markets are caught in an aggressive risk-unwind as equities plunge around the world, with tech getting hit particularly hard," he wrote in a note Monday.

Persons: Wharton's Siegel, Jeremy Siegel, CNBC's, Siegel, hasn't, it's, … They're, —, Lisa Kailai Han, Tom Lee, Lee, Duncan Toms, Toms, Fred Imbert, Victoria Greene, Greene, It's, Nimrit Kang, — Lisa Kailai Han, Dan Ives, Gene Goldman, Gennadiy Goldberg, Ives, Goldman, Goldberg, Oppenheimer's John Stoltzfus, Evercore, Ed Hyman, Hyman, Adam Crisafulli, Crisafulli Organizations: CNBC, Stock, Nikkei, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Wharton, Federal Reserve, Fundstrat Global, HSBC, G Squared, Wealth, NorthStar Asset Management, Street, Wedbush, TD Securities, Federal, NASDAQ, U.S, Fed, Global Locations: U.S, Europe, Japan, China

☆ 4 bullish signals are pointing to more stock gains ahead, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The stock market rally is likely to continue, says BofA technical analyst Stephen Suttmeier. Suttmeier highlighted four positive signals that suggest a healthy bull market in a note on Tuesday. AdvertisementAs the stock market hits a series of record highs in 2024, there are positive signals suggesting the rally can keep going. That money could serve as fuel for a continued stock market rally, especially if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, making the current 5% cash yield less attractive. AdvertisementThe financial conditions index last sparked a major negative divergence towards the end of 2021, when the S&P 500 was rising even as the financial conditions index was declining.

Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, — Organizations: Service, Bank of America, BAA, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Fed, Chicago Fed

☆ Stocks are about to hit a 'wall of money' that will drive the market to record highs in July, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A record $7.3 trillion in money market funds could soon be reinvested elsewhere, according to Goldman Sachs. AdvertisementA "wall of money" is headed for the stock market this summer and will drive equities to record highs, according to a recent note from Goldman Sachs' trading desk. Goldman Sachs managing director Scott Rubner highlighted in the note that a record $7.3 trillion is sitting in money market funds, and a large chunk of that is poised to flow into stocks. AdvertisementIf the Fed cuts rates, then the cash yield on money market funds should drop from its current level of about 5%. AdvertisementWith stocks already trading at records, the gains Rubner expects would send the stock market to fresh highs.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, seasonals, —, Scott Rubner, Rubner, NDX Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq

☆ 5 reasons the stock market is headed for a 4% gain in June, according to Fundstrat
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 is primed to rise 4% in June, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. AdvertisementThe stock market is poised to rise another 4% in June after jumping 5% in May, according to a Tuesday note from Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee said the S&P 500 could jump to 5,500 within the next month, driven by five positive market catalysts. Such a gain would send the S&P 500 to new all-time highs. But Nvidia's blowout earnings results last week could jolt investors to finally put that cash to work and buy stocks, according to Lee.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, — Organizations: Service, PCE, CPI, Bank of America

☆ Markets are hitting record highs. And economists like El-Erian and Krugman can't shake off their fears
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Stellar prices for gold have also stolen investor attention, with the precious metal scaling a new record of over $2,100. The record-breaking numbers for markets, however, haven't stopped some investors from worrying about three key issues. Inflation resurgenceAfter months of cooling, U.S inflation is proving itself to be more stubborn than experts had predicted. That's despite the Federal Reserve embarking on an aggressive monetary policy campaign over the past year, in a bid to tame consumer price pressures from their 40-year highs. Ariel Investments' Vice Chair Charlie Bobrinskoy told CNBC markets are not focused on China's residential real estate problems.

Persons: Michael M, haven't, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Mark Zandi's, Mark Zandi, Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, Doom, Trump, Marko Kolanovic, Mohamed El, Erian, Ariel, Charlie Bobrinskoy Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Federal, stoke, Allianz, Bloomberg, CNBC, El, Ariel Investments Locations: New York City, U.S, China

☆ Fundstrat's Tom Lee says the market is showing some signs of fatigue, urges investors to be 'patient'
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-21 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Lee anticipates a positive setup for markets over the next 12 months, but views some signs of market fatigue in the near term after rallying for the better part of the last 16 weeks. Some investors have turned slightly cautious in recent sessions following hotter-than-expected reports on consumer and producer prices in January. However, Lee views the print as a reflection of "difficult seasonals" as companies lift prices in January, and expects the narrative to reverse course in February. Given this setup, Lee is urging investors sitting on cash to consider slowly dip their toes into the market during periods of weakness and remain "patient." "Patient money is really the money that's been working the last few years," he said.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, that's Organizations: Fundstrat Global

☆ Good news for the Fed: Revised inflation data confirms last year’s progress
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

That left Fed officials bracing for the latest batch of revised CPI data, released Friday morning, which some feared could take away the inflation progress they observed last year. Instead, officials got some good news: December’s monthly inflation wasn’t as bad as initially reported, according to newly revised figures from the BLS. And for other months last year, initial data was either unchanged or revised by no more than one-tenth of a percentage point up or down. Recent data revisions have complicated the Fed’s monetary policy decisionsFed officials have been complaining about data revisions to key economic reports lately. But if revised data indicates that job gains didn’t actually slow that much in a month, cutting rates could move the inflation rate further from their target.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Friday’s, Kieran Clancy, ” Clancy, “, ” “, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, ”, Pantheon Locations: New York

☆ A look back at a remarkable stock market year, and what should worry investors into 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-28 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

A few days ago, S & P noted that the S & P 500 total return of 25.85% would only be up 9.49% ex the Magnificent 7. If you own the S & P 500 long-term, you are participating in those gains. The S & P is up 1,200 points (25%) since then and is knocking on the door of an historic high. The S & P 500 is overbought and expensive on most metrics. The S & P 500 up almost 25% in a year is the kind of problem a lot of people would be happy to have.

Persons: Russell, YTD, General Mills, it's, Staples, Campbell, Mills Organizations: AMD, Arista Networks, Apple, Meta, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Nike, FedEx, General, NextEra, Utilities, Treasuries Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Israel, Wayfair, Devon, Chevron

☆ Case for gold fever: NewEdge Wealth sees record rush intensifying
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-02 | by ( Meredith Mutter | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The record gold rush may intensify into year-end. According to NewEdge Wealth's Ben Emons, the final month of the year typically creates a bigger appetite for the yellow metal. We get a recession maybe, maybe not," said Emons. "At the same time, gold rallies when there's this risk-on feel in the markets, and that's really when real rates and interest rates are declining. In a note to clients this week, Emons wrote that months for both gold and stocks are a "rare combo."

Persons: NewEdge Wealth's Ben Emons, It's, CNBC's, Gold, Emons, Guy Adami Organizations: Dow

☆ After an extraordinary November for stocks, December has a lot in its corner. Here's why
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is boring right now, and that is not a bad thing. There's a strong backdrop going into December. The S & P 500 was up 8.9%, its best month since July 2022, and the fourth-best November since 1950. If it doesn't seem that way, it's because the S & P has been flat for the past week and a half. There will be lots of complaints about high valuations, and the cynics will be right: The S & P is approaching 19-times 2024 earnings.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, let's Organizations: Triple Witching, Treasury, Atlanta, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, JPMorgan, Dow, Revenue Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Analysts say these growth stocks are set to jump even further — giving them over 30% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Higher-for-longer interest rates are especially bad for growth stocks. For those keen on getting back into the growth corner of the market, CNBC Pro screened for stocks in the iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF that have further upside. Despite its huge gains this year, it was given more upside by analysts — potentially 45.5% based on the average price target, according to FactSet. Other stocks that made the list include cloud companies Okta and Snowflake , with over 30% potential upside each. Fintech-related stocks such as PayPal and Block also showed up, as did many health-care and pharmaceutical stocks.

Persons: Stocks, Russell, It's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, U.S . Federal Reserve, Citi, CNBC Pro, Nvidia, PayPal Locations: Snowflake

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: The stock market may have just bottomed
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market may have just bottomed, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni. Yardeni highlighted that the S&P 500 found support at its rising trend line that dates back to the March 2020 low. AdvertisementAdvertisementOur chart of the day is from market veteran Ed Yardeni, which plots the S&P 500 since 2018 and highlights a key rising trend line that could be acting as support for the stock market. Yardeni pointed to this chart in a Wednesday note to clients and argued that the stock market may have just bottomed. If the stock market did bottom this week, as Yardeni suggests, it would play into the bullish seasonals that typically drive the stock market higher into the end of the year.

Persons: Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, — Organizations: Service, Fed, LPL Research

☆ Citi upgrades U.S. stocks on stable interest rates, year-end seasonals
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Citi is turning more bullish on U.S. stocks heading into the end of 2023. The firm moved U.S. equities to a tactical overweight rating in a Wednesday note, underpinned by seasonality, stable interest rates and positive earnings growth. "With the January-October numbers now official — total return of 10.7% — the rule by itself would trigger a tactical buy signal into year-end." The analyst added that he expects interest rates and a steady supply overhang "should at least stabilize rates in the short term," further aiding equities. The note follows a move higher in U.S. stocks Wednesday after the Federal Reserve held rates steady for a second-consecutive month.

Persons: Dirk Willer, Jerome Powell, Willer Organizations: Citi, Citi Research, Federal Reserve

☆ The Dow's transportation index is ringing alarm bells about the broader stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

A decline in transportation stocks is sending a worrying signal about the broader stock market. Transportation stocks are viewed as a leading indicator because they point to the movement of goods around the country. AdvertisementAdvertisementA steady decline in transportation stocks is sending a worrying signal about the broader stock market and its chances to stage a year-end rally. If companies are seeing a slowdown in growth and their stock prices fall, it could be a grim warning for the rest of the economy and stock market. AdvertisementAdvertisementAnd if the latter happens, crucial support levels would be broken and investors' highly anticipated year-end rally in the stock market, partly explained by bullish seasonals, would be on thin ice.

Persons: —, Hunt, Dow Jones, bullish seasonals, J.B, Shelley Simpson, Robert Isom, We're, Isom, Joe Hinrichs, Hinrich, Dow, Manuel Blay, TheDowTheory.com, Dow Industrials Organizations: Service, Dow Jones Transportation, United Airlines, American Airlines, CSX Transportation, Dow, Industrial, CNBC, CSX Locations: Israel

The drop in gasoline prices could benefit consumers and cool inflation. Before this week's drop, gasoline prices had posted a 7.4% jump in the third quarter, riding increases in crude oil futures after production cuts from Saudi Arabia, Russia and other OPEC+ members. U.S. wholesale gasoline prices are tumbling, with percentage drops per gallon on Wednesday between 6.9% and 10.8%. A flurry of weak economic data took more wind out of the market. Crude futures settled an eye-popping $5 a barrel lower on Wednesday, and fell another $1.66 on Thursday.

Persons: Bing Guan, JP Morgan, Tom Kloza, Kloza, Laura Sanicola, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Mobil, REUTERS, U.S . Energy, Administration, U.S ., Midwest, Oil Price Information Service, ADP, Oil, Thomson Locations: Beverly Boulevard, West Hollywood , California, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S . East Coast, East

☆ Barclays says rates will keep going higher until there is a deeper stock sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The steep decline in the bond market — and the accompanying move up in interest rates — will only stop if the sell-off in stocks accelerates, according to Barclays. "Despite the breathtaking sell-off in longer rates, we do not see a clear catalyst to stem the bleeding. Absent that, there is no sustained bond stabilization and, given how risk assets are finally responding to bonds, no stabilization in risk assets, either. Traders often look to the Federal Reserve in times of bond market stress, as the central bank has in the past stepped in to calm the Treasury market. "The only way the Fed could help longer yields is by hiking so aggressively that markets are convinced a recession is imminent and rush to buy longer rates.

Persons: Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Rajadhyaksha, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Barclays, Treasury, Traders, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S

☆ Stocks churn with the S&P 500 sitting at the same level it was two years ago
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-16 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 has held on to most of its first-half gains and has made a series of higher lows since mid-August. And while 2% is the central-banker ideal, equity markets historically are comfortable with inflation under 4% or so. The equal-weight S & P 500 is about where it was last Thanksgiving and small-cap indexes have been sideways and stuck for a year-and-a-half. Kolovos has been anticipating a "long and winding road to 4800" for the S & P 500, provided it doesn't crack support near 4300 before then. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Such a scenario would then certainly give rise to a vexing "Now what?"

Persons: –, Ron Adler, Morgan, Wall, It's, we've, Ned Davis, Worth, John Kolovos, Kolovos Organizations: Wall, PPI, ECB, Citi, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Ned Davis Research, Dow Jones Industrial, Nvidia Locations: China, Rosh, Yom Kippur

☆ Some Wall Street analysts are predicting a market decline. Here's when that might happen
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In Europe, the STOXX 600 has increased by more than 15% over the same period. - Jan. 24 UBS: STOXX 600 down 8% to 410 by Dec. - Jan. 11 JP Morgan: STOXX 600 up 3% to 465 by Dec. We believe that the current market rally will start fading as we move through Q1. - Jan. 23 Barclays: STOXX 600 up 6% to 475 by Dec.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead U.S. stock rally faces gauntlet of CPI data, Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The index has bounced about 10% from its October lows but remains down more than 17% on the year. Equities’ trajectory in the near future may depend on whether Tuesday’s consumer price index report shows inflation is responding to the most aggressive Fed hiking cycle since the 1980s. Hotter-than-expected data could bolster fears of more Fed hawkishness, pressuring stocks. A second helping of benign data could bolster the case for a peak in inflation and buoy equities further. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile, investors are factoring in a half-percentage-point rate hike from the Fed next week, a step down from its recent series of three-quarter-point increases.

☆ The traditional December bounce for stocks may be more elusive, but it’s still possible
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In those years, December was just the fourth best month, with the S & P 500 rising 1.35% and gaining 68% of the time. As the S & P 500 exits November, it is down about 17% this year. The S & P 500 could mirror some of the other very negative years. For instance, the S & P 500 was down 18.5% through November in 2002, and then bottomed in March 2003, gaining 26.4% that year. Watching key levels In order to confirm a bullish cycle, Suttmeier said the S & P 500 needs to regain the 40-week moving average at 4,033.

☆ The stock market will enter its best performing environment if Republicans take control of Congress in midterm elections
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market could be poised for big upside ahead if Republicans win Congress in today's midterm election. "The very best scenario for stocks is a Democratic President and a Republican-controlled Congress," Carson Group's Ryan Detrick said. "The very best scenario for stocks is a Democratic President and a Republican-controlled Congress. Under a Democratic president, the S&P 500 saw average annual returns of 16.2% when Republicans controlled both chambers on Congress. Regardless of Tuesday's election results, the stock market has plenty of more favorable seasonals going for it into year-end, according to Detrick.

☆ The election could be a big tailwind for stocks heading into the end of the year
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The average annual return of the S & P 500 in the 12 months before a midterm election since 1962 is 0.3%, "significantly lower than the historical average of 8.1%," US Bancorp said in a recent note. In the 12-month period after a midterm election, the S & P is up an average of 16.3%. The outperformance was especially notable in the period three months and six months after the election, when the S & P was up 7.3% and 15.1% on average. Most attribute the reason for underperformance to policy uncertainty — investors do not know which political party will hold a majority in Congress, which resolves after the midterm election. The S & P was higher 88.9% of the time.

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