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☆ Russia's mass advantage against Ukraine should start declining by 2025, war expert says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Matthew Loh | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Russia is flooding Ukraine with men and equipment, but that should soon slow, analyst Michael Kofman said. Its high losses indicate its military is strained under its current level of aggression, he told the Intelligencer. AdvertisementRussia's numbers advantage against Ukraine is likely to start diminishing as soon as the end of this year, said US-based military analyst Michael Kofman. Russia's equipment can't last foreverKofman's first explanation is that Moscow has been replacing high equipment losses with Soviet-era weaponry, but even these reserve stocks can't last forever. "What it does mean is that the Russian military has increasingly been forced to adjust tactics to minimize their losses," he added.

Persons: Michael Kofman, Kofman doesn't, —, Intelligencer's Benjamin Hart, Kofman, it's, Hart, lim, Wes Organizations: Service, Kremlin, Carnegie Endowment, International, Soviet, UK Defense Ministry, Defence, adm, unc Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Kyiv, Moscow, Russian, Rus

☆ UniCredit's pursuit of Commerzbank reflects a watershed moment for Europe — and its banking union
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-26 | by ( Sam Meredith | In Samuelmeredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Kirill Kudryavtsev | Afp | Getty ImagesEuropean banking's latest takeover battle is widely regarded as a potential turning point for the region — particularly the bloc's incomplete banking union. Whatever the outcome of UniCredit's swoop on Commerzbank, Marsh said the episode marks "another huge test" for German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. What is Europe's banking union? OMFIF's Marsh said Germany's opposition to UniCredit's move on Commerzbank means Berlin "now stands accused of favouring European banking integration only on its own terms." The logo of German bank Commerzbank seen on a branch office near The Commerzbank Tower in Frankfurt.

Persons: Kirill Kudryavtsev, Italy's UniCredit, David Marsh, Marsh, Olaf Scholz, Scholz, –, Germany's Scholz, OMFIF's Marsh, UniCredit's, Daniel Roland, Onur Genç, Mario Centeno, CNBC's, —, Centeno Organizations: European Central Bank, Afp, Getty, London, European Union, CNBC, BBVA, Banco Sabadell, Reuters, European Central Bank's Governing, EU Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Germany's, Milan, Europe, Commerzbank, Italy, Berlin, Spanish, Brussels, Spain

☆ Why predicted gains for right-wing populists could make Europe vulnerable to attack
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Luke Mcgee | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

CNN —Right-wing populists are set to make unprecedented gains in the elections to the European Parliament taking place next month. Polling data suggests that far-right Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) could have enough seats to, together, block the passage of European Union legislation, creating a massive headache for the union as a whole. “For some countries, that is a six-month process, in others it can take two years,” a senior European Parliament source told CNN. Britain's Nigel Farage used his seat in the European Parliament to promote Brexit. It only becomes an issue if they are working with foreign powers to advance their agenda,” an EU security source told CNN.

Persons: Ursula von der Leyen, Yiannis Kourtoglou, Reuters “, ”, James Shires, you’ll, don’t, Britain's Nigel Farage, SEBASTIEN BOZON, it’s, — Organizations: CNN, Parliament, European, Reuters, “, Brexit, Getty, British, EU, Brussels Locations: Brussels, China, Russia, Strasbourg, AFP, Britain, Ukraine, EU, Europe

☆ Rwanda bill: UK passes controversial bill to send asylum seekers to East Africa after two years of challenges
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( Luke Mcgee | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —The UK parliament has finally passed a contentious bill that will allow the government to send asylum seekers to Rwanda for their claims to be considered by the East African nation. In theory, the legislation will see some landing in the UK sent to Rwanda where their asylum claim will be considered. And it makes clear that the UK Parliament is sovereign, giving the government the power to reject interim blocking measures imposed by European courts,” he added. The European court has previously barred it from sending asylum seekers to Rwanda. To date, the Rwanda policy has cost the British government £220m ($274m), and that figure could rise to £600m after the first 300 people have been sent to East Africa.

Persons: Rishi Sunak’s, Sunak, ” Refoulement, Bill, James, Rwanda Bill, –, Rishi Sunak, Toby Melville, Nigel Farage – Organizations: CNN, East, of Human, European Convention of Human Rights, Commons, Sunak, University of Oxford, Conservative Party, Reform UK, Labour Party Locations: Rwanda, United Kingdom, France, ”, East Africa

☆ After Retreat, Ukraine Digs in to Repel New Russian Attacks in East
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-19 | by ( Feb. | At A.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +4 min

The Latest Photos From Ukraine View All 91 Images"The Ukrainian military has established itself on new lines of defence and is successfully repelling attempts by the Russian invaders to develop an offensive," Brigadier-General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi wrote on Telegram messenger. The capture of Avdiivka pushes Ukrainian forces further from the Russian-held bastion city of Donetsk, an important logistics hub used by Moscow to support its operations across partially-occupied eastern Ukraine, a region known as the Donbas. Serhiy Zgurets, director of the Kyiv-based Defence Express consultancy, predicted Russian forces would try to "straighten out" the front line around Mariinka and launch a fresh push around the town of Vuhledar, which is held by Kyiv. Pavel Mogila, commander of an armoured unit in a Russian militia force fighting for Ukraine, said they helped evacuate forces from the city using three vehicles. Moscow unilaterally declared it had annexed the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in 2022 despite not fully controlling any of them.

Persons: Pavel Polityuk, Tom Balmforth, Avdiivka's, Republicans scupper, rearm, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Dmytro Lykhoviy, Avdiivka, Serhiy Zgurets, Zgurets, Chasiv Yar, Vladimir Putin, Maksym Zhoryn, Pavel Mogila, Taran, Oleh, Putin, Yuliia Dysa, Peter Graff Organizations: Tom Balmforth KYIV, Kremlin, U.S, Republicans, Ukrainian, Defence Express, Kyiv, Third Assault Brigade, 110th Brigade Locations: Avdiivka, Russia, Bakhmut, Mariinka, Kyiv, Russian, Donetsk, Moscow, Ukraine, Vuhledar, Chasiv, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia

☆ Trump and his GOP allies kneecap a border compromise they should have loved
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Bill would mean a huge change in the lawThe border compromise would represent a dramatic change of immigration law on lines many Republicans have long supported. 2 won only GOP support when it passed the House and all those who voted for it knew there was never a chance it could get through a Democratic Senate and White House. “Any national security package has to begin with the security of our own border,” Johnson said in December. “Only a fool, or a Radical Left Democrat, would vote for this horrendous Border Bill,” the ex-president wrote on Truth Social on Monday. “This is the chaos when Donald Trump is back in charge of the Republican Party,” Murphy told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Oklahoma’s James Lankford, ”, Dan Bongino, Mississippi Sen, Roger Wicker, Mitch McConnell’s, Mike Johnson, Joe Biden’s, Trump, Alejandro Mayorkas, thrall, Kevin McCarthy, “, ” McCarthy, Lankford, McCarthy, CNN’s Manu Raju, Biden, didn’t, Biden’s, he’d, Barack Obama, George W, Bush, ” McConnell, Bill, Tim Burchett, CNN’s Jake Tapper, ” Johnson, he’s, –, it’s, harangue Biden, ” Trump, imperil Biden’s, Trump . Connecticut Sen, Chris Murphy, Donald Trump, ” Murphy, CNN’s Wolf Blitzer Organizations: CNN, Donald Trump’s Republican Party, White, Trump, Republicans, GOP, Republican, Homeland, Border Patrol, Democratic, California Republican, Senate Homeland Security, Governmental Affairs, Congress, Customs, Department of Homeland Security, ” Tennessee, Radical Left Democrat, Democrats, Republican Party, Trump . Connecticut Locations: Washington, Mississippi, California, Oklahoma, Mexico, H.R, Ukraine, Trump .

☆ Golfer remarkably lands shot in fan’s drink at The American Express
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-19 | by ( Jack Bantock | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

After feeling a gentle impact on his chest and the sound of a splash, Harmeyer looked down to see a white orb floating in his cocktail. “I owe you a drink … I’m very sorry,” Schenk said, according to the PGA Tour, who shared footage of the incident on X. Scott Stallings and Lee Hodges walk the tenth fairway during the first round of The 2024 American Express. It left the 31-year-old – chasing his first win on the PGA Tour – eight shots behind the leading duo, compatriot Zach Johnson and Sweden’s Alex Noren. “Put a lot of good work in as of late,” Johnson, a 12-time winner on the PGA Tour, told reporters after his round.

Persons: Pete Dye, Adam Schenk’s, Brad Harmeyer, Harmeyer, Schenk, “, ” Schenk, –, – Schenk, Scott Stallings, Lee Hodges, Orlando Ramirez, Zach Johnson, Sweden’s Alex Noren, Johnson, ” Johnson, ” Organizations: CNN, The American Express, PGA Tour, Team USA, PGA Locations: La Quinta , California, Rome, It’s

U.S. officials, after learning about the plot in late July, demanded that India investigate, a senior administration official said. High-level meetings and pledges of closer cooperation have continued, with Biden's secretaries of state and defense visiting Delhi this month. A senior U.S. administration official called the assassination plot a "serious matter" and said Washington expects India to stop such activities, even as the Biden administration pursues "an ambitious agenda to expand our cooperation" with India. Biden has made a priority of nurturing ties with India, hoping to counter China’s ambitions in Asia while drawing India away from Russia as the U.S. seeks to isolate Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine. "Both the U.S. and India realize that they need each other, perhaps the U.S. a bit more than India."

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Nikhil Gupta, Joe Biden, Narendra Modi, Biden, Modi, Lisa Curtis, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, Canada’s, Happymon Jacob, Richard Rossow, Ashley Tellis, David Brunnstrom, Simon Lewis, Krishn Kaushik, Jonathan Landay, Trevor Hunnicutt, Don Durfee, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Eisenhower, White, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, New, New York City, Indian, White House, CIA, Washington, South, National Security Council, Canada, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Washington's Center, Strategic, International Studies, Biden Administration, Carnegie Endowment, International, U.S, Thomson Locations: United States, India, Washington , U.S, U.S, China, Manhattan, New York, New Delhi, Delhi, The U.S, Central Asia, Asia, Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, York, Canada, Vancouver suburb, Gujarat

☆ EU fiscal pact ignores green elephant in the room
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

REUTERS/Henry Nicholls Acquire Licensing RightsMILAN, Nov 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The European Union’s troubled fiscal pact, once branded as "stupid" by former European Commission President Romano Prodi, has reached its sell-by date. Average EU debt has been consistently above the 60% target. NEW COURSEThe proposed revamp of the fiscal pact, now under discussion, is an improvement. BRAVE NEW DEBT WORLDFor all of Brussels’ reforming zeal, Europe’s future debt rules ignore a giant elephant in the room: climate change. Another option is to remove green investments from the fiscal rules’ deficit calculations.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Romano Prodi, Christian Lindner, Giorgia Meloni, Breakingviews, Bruno Le Maire, Olaf Scholz’s, Mario Draghi, Francesco Guerrera, Thomas Shum Organizations: Trust, REUTERS, Reuters, European, Reuters Graphics Reuters, European Commission, French Finance, EU, Intel, European Central Bank, Italian, Union, Thomson Locations: Green Park, London, Britain, Maastricht Treaty, Germany, it's, Italy, Greece, Brussels, EU, United States, Spain, Europe

The logo of Australian energy company Origin is pictured in Melbourne, Australia, July 3, 2016. REUTERS/Jason Reed/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Australian pension fund AustralianSuper said on Monday it had rejected an "eleventh hour" offer from a Brookfield-led consortium and its partner EIG to drop its opposition to their $10.5 billion bid for Origin Energy and join the takeover. AustralianSuper said it was Origin Energy's largest shareholder, but did not specify the size of its stake as it has done in previous releases. Brookfield argues its bid, which comes with the commitment of A$20 to A$30 billion worth of investment, will decarbonise Origin Energy faster than if the company remains in public hands. However, AustralianSuper said on Monday it was also open to stumping up cash to fund Origin's transition.

Persons: Jason Reed, AustralianSuper, EIG, Luke Edwards, Lewis Jackson, Alasdair Pal, Stephen Coates Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Origin Energy, Financial, Brookfield, Renewable, Thomson Locations: Melbourne, Australia, Brookfield, Sydney

"AustralianSuper believes Origin has a highly strategic portfolio of assets to participate in, and benefit from, the energy transition," a spokesperson said. Origin shares plunged as much as 5.6% to A$8.565 in high-volume trading following the news, as AustralianSuper's 13.68% holding could scupper a deal that requires approval from 75% of the register if not all investors vote. Should the deal fail at the shareholder vote scheduled for Nov. 23, a revised agreement allows the consortium to make a subsequent off-market bid if it buys 5% or more of Origin shares. "If it gets voted down, Brookfield aren't obligated to come back with an off-market takeover offer, but they may be inclined to," he said. Should the deal close, Brookfield and its partners GIC and Temasek will own Origin's Energy Markets business, which includes power generation and retailing.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, AustralianSuper, Canada's Brookfield, Brookfield, Jamie Hannah, Simon Mawhinney, Allan Gray, Stewart Upson, Scott Murdoch, Lewis Jackson, Sameer Manekar, Jamie Freed Organizations: Brookfield, REUTERS, SYDNEY, bourse, Brookfield Asia, Energy Markets, Saudi Arabia's Aramco, Australia Pacific LNG, Thomson Locations: VanEck, Brookfield, Temasek, Saudi, Australia, Sydney, Bengaluru

AustralianSuper owns a 13.68% stake in Origin Energy and said the offer was "substantially below" its estimate of long-term value for Australia's biggest energy retailer. Origin shares were down 0.9% in early trade on Tuesday at A$9.10 each, which was above the $A8.81 offer price. Origin shares have been trading above the offer price since the deal got an approval from the country's competition regulator on Oct. 10. Origin shares closed at A$9.17 on Monday, 4.1% above the offer price. "The current offer from the Brookfield and EIG-backed consortium remains substantially below our estimate of Origin's long-term value," the firm said.

Persons: AustralianSuper, Max Vickerson, AusSuper, it’s, Scott Murdoch, Lewis Jackson, Sameer Manekar, Josie Kao, Lincoln, Chris Reese Organizations: Origin Energy, Brookfield, stockbroker Morgans, Frontier Economics, Energy, Thomson Locations: Brookfield, EIG, Sydey, Bengaluru

Smoke rises in the aftermath of rocket barrages that were launched from Gaza, in Ashkelon, Israel October 7, 2023. REUTERS/Amir Cohen/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLAUNCESTON, Australia, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices spiked higher in the wake of a massive Hamas attack on Israel, but the relatively modest increase masks the risk of an escalating Middle East conflict. These reactions from two key leaders in the Middle East underscore just how the Hamas attacks are likely to upend relationships in the Middle East. Overall, what the attacks by Hamas have likely achieved, for now at least, is place a pause on moves to normalise political relationships across the Middle East. There is no certainty as to how the current situation will play out, but uncertainty and heightened risks are likely bullish for crude oil prices.

Persons: Amir Cohen, Brent, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ebrahim Raisi, Joe Biden, Biden, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Brent, Hamas, Gaza, United Arab Emirates, U.S, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Gaza, Ashkelon, Israel, Rights LAUNCESTON, Australia, Israeli, Iran, Saudi Arabia, IRAN, Tehran, East, U.S, Saudi, Russia

☆ Morning Bid: Oil up but restrained on Mideast jolt
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Pump jacks operate in front of a drilling rig in an oil field in Midland, Texas U.S. August 22, 2018. U.S. crude oil prices rose about 3% higher on Monday as Israel retaliated for Saturday's shock attack by the Islamist group Hamas. With concern about a spillover over the long-running conflict to the wider stage, oil and other traditional global 'safety' plays caught a bid. What's more, any direct connection to Iran's possible involvement would scupper any easing of sanctions there and affect an estimated 3% of world oil supply. A sustained oil price rise from here could aggravate the inflation picture the Fed is negotiating - but could also drag on growth too.

Persons: Nick Oxford, Mike Dolan, Israel, What's, Friday's, Jaime Gilinski, Michael Barr, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Midland , Texas U.S, REUTERS, Hamas, Saudi, White, Street, Tehran, Treasury, U.S, Columbus Day, New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Stock, Tel, Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve, Metro Bank, Metro, Columbus, Federal, NYSE, World Bank, IMF, Dallas Fed, Bank of England, United, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Midland , Texas, U.S, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Saudi, Russia, Tel Aviv, Europe, Marrakesh, Morocco, United States

There is no security in the whole region as long as Palestinians are left outside of the equation." The Hamas attack launched from Gaza follows months of rising violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, with stepped-up Israeli raids, Palestinian street attacks and assaults by Jewish settlers on Palestinian villages. "Some (Arab states) unfortunately started imagining that Israel could be the gateway for America to defend their security." "I would say for certain Hamas, terrorist groups like Hamas, will not derail any such outcome. Tehran called Saturday's attack an act of self-defence by Palestinians.

Persons: Ammar Awad, Israel, Ismail Haniyeh, Benjamin Netanyahu, Peacemaking, Laura Blumenfeld, Osama Hamdan, Netanyahu, Ali Baraka, Richard LeBaron, IRAN'S, Joe Biden's, Yahya Rahim Safavi, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Dennis Ross, Samia Nakhoul, Nidal El Mughrabi, Laila Bassam, Matt Spetalnick, Edmund Blair Organizations: REUTERS, Saudi, Israel Saudi, Hamas, Iran, Israel, Al, West Bank, Reuters, Johns Hopkins School, International Studies, U.S . Middle, Atlantic Council, Islamic, Palestinian, Analysts, Washington Institute for Near, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, DUBAI, GAZA, WASHINGTON, Saudi Arabia, Washington, Riyadh, Tehran, Iran, Al Jazeera, Lebanese, U.S, East, Lebanon, America, Kippur, Egypt, U.S . Middle East, Saudi, Israeli, normalisation, Islamic Jihad, Palestine, Jerusalem, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Yemeni, Dubai, Beirut

There is no security in the whole region as long as Palestinians are left outside of the equation." The Hamas attack launched from Gaza follows months of rising violence in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, with stepped-up Israeli raids, Palestinian street attacks and assaults by Jewish settlers on Palestinian villages. "I would say for certain Hamas, terrorist groups like Hamas, will not derail any such outcome. Tehran called Saturday's attack an act of self-defence by Palestinians. Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator who is now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in Washington, said of Saturday's attack: "This is all about preventing the U.S.-Saudi-Israel breakthrough."

Persons: Ammar Awad, Israel, Ismail Haniyeh, Benjamin Netanyahu, Peacemaking, Osama Hamdan, Netanyahu, Ali Baraka, Richard LeBaron, IRAN'S, Joe Biden's, Yahya Rahim Safavi, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Dennis Ross, Samia Nakhoul, Nidal El Mughrabi, Laila Bassam, Matt Spetalnick, Edmund Blair Organizations: REUTERS, Saudi, Israel Saudi, Hamas, Iran, Israel, Al, West Bank, Reuters, U.S . Middle, Atlantic Council, Islamic, Palestinian, Analysts, Washington Institute for Near, U.S ., Thomson Locations: Gaza, Sderot, Israel, DUBAI, GAZA, WASHINGTON, Saudi Arabia, Washington, Riyadh, Tehran, Iran, Al Jazeera, Lebanese, U.S, Lebanon, America, Kippur, Egypt, U.S . Middle East, Saudi, Israeli, normalisation, Islamic Jihad, Palestine, Jerusalem, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Yemeni, Dubai, Beirut

☆ Analysis-In Surprise Attack, Hamas Strikes Israel and Regional Security Realignment
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( Oct. | At P.M. | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +7 min

"Some (Arab states) unfortunately started imagining that Israel could be the gateway for America to defend their security." In the years since 1973, Egypt signed a peace treaty with Israel and several other Arab states have also since normalised ties, including some Gulf Arab states next to Saudi Arabia. Netanyahu has previously said the Palestinians should not be allowed to veto any new Israeli peace deals with Arab states. Tehran called Saturday's attack an act of self-defence by Palestinians. Dennis Ross, a former Middle East negotiator who is now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy in Washington, said of Saturday's attack: "This is all about preventing the U.S.-Saudi-Israel breakthrough."

Persons: Samia Nakhoul, Nidal, Matt Spetalnick, Laila Bassam, Israel, Ismail Haniyeh, Benjamin Netanyahu, Peacemaking, Osama Hamdan, Netanyahu, Ali Baraka, Richard LeBaron, IRAN'S, Joe Biden's, Yahya Rahim Safavi, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Dennis Ross, Nidal El Mughrabi, Edmund Blair Organizations: Hamas, Iran, Israel, Saudi, Al, West Bank, Reuters, U.S . Middle, Atlantic Council, Islamic, Palestinian, Analysts, Washington Institute for Near, U.S . Locations: Laila Bassam DUBAI, GAZA, WASHINGTON, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Washington, Riyadh, Tehran, Iran, Gaza, Al Jazeera, Lebanese, U.S, Lebanon, America, Kippur, Egypt, U.S . Middle East, Saudi, Israeli, normalisation, Islamic Jihad, Palestine, Jerusalem, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Yemeni, Dubai, Beirut

☆ Urgency Grows for DeSantis in Iowa as Trump Looks to Finish Him Off
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( Nicholas Nehamas | More About Nicholas Nehamas | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Ron DeSantis of Florida is doing everything that a Republican presidential candidate should do to win Iowa. His super PAC is building a formidable get-out-the-vote operation and says it has reserved $13 million in television ads in Iowa through Thanksgiving. For Mr. DeSantis, who is trailing former President Donald J. Trump in Iowa by double digits, the state has become a must-win. Mr. Trump, who has campaigned sparingly here, appears to know it. The other is his lack of light-up-the-room charisma and folksy authenticity, qualities that seem required, at a minimum, to beat an established star like Mr. Trump.

Persons: Ron DeSantis, DeSantis, Donald J, Trump, DeSantis’s, — Organizations: Republican, Iowa, Trump Locations: Florida, Iowa

☆ Bond rout will amplify Powell’s Jackson Hole words
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before a House Financial Services Committee hearing on "The Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report" on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., June 21, 2023. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Aug 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The U.S. Federal Reserve might be done hiking rates, but the bond market has only just gotten started. That poses a lofty challenge for Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he speaks at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming symposium on Friday: calm the Treasury market without undoing the Fed’s own tightening. He can reiterate that, while the Fed keeps an eye on markets, its next policy decision rests on economic data, not ever-shifting bond yields. The U.S. Federal Reserve holds its annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming from Aug. 24 to Aug. 26.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Jonathan Ernst, Freddie Mac, CreditCards.com, Powell, Powell won’t, Christine Lagarde, Francesco Guerrera, Sharon Lam Organizations: Federal, Financial, REUTERS, Rights, Reuters, U.S . Federal, Futures, Fed, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Government, , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

Yet a sharp drawdown in the excess savings created by COVID-19 could be a curve ball that slams into bullish sentiment. U.S. excess savings have fallen to around $500 billion from around $2.1 trillion in August 2021, the San Francisco Federal Reserve estimates. In Europe, Deutsche Bank reckons excess savings in Sweden, struggling to contain a property slump, have dwindled. Reuters GraphicsRUNNING OUTDefinitions for excess savings differ, but economists generally agree that this means savings that went beyond trend levels during the pandemic. Cardano chief economist Shweta Singh said U.S. pandemic excess savings are likely to be depleted by year-end.

Persons: Rachel Adams, Janus Henderson, Oliver Blackbourn, Shweta Singh, Guy Miller, Jamie Dimon, Ben, Eren Osman, Arbuthnot Latham, Janus Henderson's Blackbourn, U.S . Russell, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Blackbourn, Zurich's Miller, Simon Bell, Guilluame Paillat, Paillat, Naomi Rovnick, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Oxford, REUTERS, San Francisco Federal, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Insurance Group, Ryanair, JPMorgan, Unilever, U.S ., London's, Bank of, Aviva, Thomson Locations: Britain, London, China, Europe, U.S, Sweden, United States, downturns, Australia

☆ Americans are about to start losing their jobs - and that will scupper the Fed's dream no-recession scenario, Vanguard top economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve said last week that it no longer expects a recession in the US. But unemployment will spike above 4% over the next year, according to Vanguard's top economist Joe Davis. "By that metric, it actually is a recession – because you have very modest job losses," he said. "Well, historically, that has been 100% associated with a recession – now, not necessarily deep in magnitude, but a recession." The central bank has raised interest rates from near-zero to over 5% since March 2022 in a bid to tame soaring prices but pledged to take a data-dependent approach to tightening last week.

Persons: Joe Davis, Davis, Bloomberg's, they'll, there'll Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Privacy, Fed, Bloomberg Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Olga Kharlan: Ukraine's top fencer granted place at Olympics after disqualification for not shaking hands with Russian opponent
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Svitlana Vlasova Victoria Butenko Tim Lister | Svitlana Vlasova | Victoria Butenko | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Olga Kharlan, leader of Ukraine’s national fencing team, was earlier disqualified at the tournament after she refused to shake hands with the Russian rival Anna Smirnova she defeated. An athlete’s refusal to shake hands after a contest results in a black card and expulsion, according to International Fencing Federation rules. The federation said it has met with Kharlan and spoken with the International Olympic Committee and finds the reinstatement “in keeping with the Olympic Spirit”. IOC chief’s interventionThat turnaround came came after a pointed intervention from the President of the International Olympic Committee, Thomas Bach, himself a former fencer. Meanwhile, Ukrainian tennis player Elina Svitolina took to Twitter to support Kharlan, writing: “We are not shaking hands with Russian and Belarusian athletes.

Persons: Olga Kharlan, Anna Smirnova, Smirnova, Kharlan, Thomas Bach, Bach, ”, Olga Kharlan of, Tadashi Miyamoto, “, Dmytro Kuleba, ” Kharlan, Vladimir Putin, Marta Kostyuk, Kostyuk, Aryna Sabalenka, Sabalenka, won’t, Elina Svitolina Organizations: CNN, International Fencing Federation, Paris, Fencing, International Olympic Committee, IOC, Paris Olympics, Fencing Federation, Ukraine’s, Belarus, Aryna, Twitter Locations: Ukrainian, Italy, Russian, Ukraine, Milan, Olga Kharlan of Ukraine, Russia, Kyiv, Belarusian

The U.S. Justice Department and Federal Trade Commission (FTC) have mounted an unprecedented number of legal challenges to mergers since Biden came to office in 2021. The Justice Department lost a merger in the insurance industry but won an effort to stop a book publisher merger. Deal advisers said companies had already braced for a tough antitrust regime under Biden and some had been emboldened by the regulators' recent court losses. "The (regulators' guidelines) do provide more transparency but that transparency also reveals some concerns that they are quite hostile to consolidation. The new antitrust guidelines also reflect the White House's focus on labor issues.

Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Joe Biden's, Biden, Department's, Kenneth Schwartz, Flom, Fiona Schaeffer, Milbank, Elizabeth Warren, Warren, Diane Bartz, Richard Chang, Chizu Nomiyama, Daniel Wallis Organizations: Viva Technology, Porte de, REUTERS, U.S . Justice Department, Federal Trade Commission, Microsoft, Activision Blizzard Inc, FTC, Meta, Justice Department, JetBlue Airways, Spirit Airlines Inc, Amazon.com, Amazon, Flom LLP, Global, LSEG, Intelligence, Democrat, Congress, Thomson Locations: Porte, Paris, France, WASHINGTON, Skadden, Slate

☆ The dollar's troubles are far from over - expect a slump toward 2020 lows, a Societe Generale analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The US dollar could extend its slide toward lows last tested near the end of 2020, according to a Societe Generale analyst. "I would expect the Dollar Index to closer but not all the way to, the lows at the end of 2020," he said in a note. The currency's troubles may be far from over, according to a Societe Generale analyst. The decline comes as US inflation rapidly cools, fueling bets the Federal Reserve could soon stop raising interest rates, or even start cutting them. The prospect of lower interest rates tend to make a currency less attractive to international investors who seek higher yields.

Persons: Kit Juckes Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Thousands rally, block highways as final vote on Israeli judicial bill looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Dan Williams | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Thousands poured onto the streets in rallies across the country, many waving Israeli flags, and police reported at least a half-dozen highways had been blocked. Dozens entered the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, tossing fake banknotes as symbols of corruption. [1/3]People demonstrate on the 'Day of National Resistance' in protest against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his nationalist coalition government's judicial overhaul, in Tel Aviv, Israel July 18, 2023. A group describing itself as military reservists opposed to the judicial overhaul attempted to block the entrance to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) in Tel Aviv. Still, the coalition looked set to bring the bill to the plenum on Sunday for final votes before the July 30 recess.

Persons: Benjamin Netanyahu's, Netanyahu, Jonathan Eran Kali, Kali, Bezalel Smotrich, Benjamin Netanyahu, Corinna Kern, Herzi Halevi, Halevi, Noam Sohlberg, Dan Williams, Conor Humphries Organizations: Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, Reuters, Finance, of, Israeli, REUTERS, Israel Defence Forces, Thomson Locations: TEL AVIV, Tel Aviv, Israel

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