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☆ 'For 2025, reflation can certainly be an outcome' for the U.S., says strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-12-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'For 2025, reflation can certainly be an outcome' for the U.S., says strategistSalman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, discusses the U.S. economy and the outlook for further Fed rate cuts.

Persons: reflation, Salman Ahmed Organizations: Fidelity International

☆ The one non-U.S. stock market that could win from Trump and how to play it
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Japan is one stock market outside the U.S. that could win now that Donald Trump is headed back to the White House. Trump has previously proposed tariffs of up to 20% on imports, with a stringent tax of 60% on goods coming from China. Japanese stocks rallied, however, as the yen weakened with some investors expecting the U.S. defense partner stands to gain most from Trump's policies. However, Akutsu warned, with few positive earnings surprises in the market, a year-end rally could be "limited in scope." Takada said investors may have to weigh the near-term benefits of a Trump market against the risks of a possible trade war, even with a rise in the Japanese equity risk premium.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Tony Pasquariello, What's, Pasquariello, America's Masashi Akutsu, Akutsu, Morgan's Masanari Takada, Takada, It's Organizations: Nikkei, Bank, Bank of America, Hitachi, Retailing, Trump Locations: Japan, China, U.S, Europe

☆ Why economists and strategists still say a recession is postponed, despite a startling inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Contradictory messages about inflation and the labor market have investors on guard. Price growth is slowly falling from its peak, but it exceeded expectations in September after a hot reading in August. AdvertisementInflation is a threat that won't sink the economyWhile there's plenty of economic data to get excited about, persistent price growth is a problem. "If we're going to be data dependent, we have to at least look at the data," Sosnick said. Higher-than-hoped inflation is rarely compatible with an economic downturn, so if price growth does persist, it likely won't be in an earnings-crushing contraction.

Persons: —, Steve Sosnick, they've, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Sosnick, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Joe Quinlan —, Skyler Weinand, Regan, Weinand, We've Organizations: Service, US, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Interactive Brokers, Business, Manufacturing, Index, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Equity, Financial, Merrill, Private Bank, Bank of America, Regan Capital, Fed Locations: China

☆ Barclays names 5 global stocks that could benefit from China's stimulus — giving one over 100% upside
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-27 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Barclays has identified a handful of European stocks poised to benefit from China's anticipated economic stimulus measures. Mainland Chinese stocks jumped on the news. The investment bank suggested that China's current economic climate resembles April 2024, when Chinese and China-exposed stocks experienced a significant rally. According to Barclays, U.K.-headquartered insurer Prudential , cosmetics giant L'Oreal , carmakers BMW and Mercedes , and miner Rio Tinto are among the top European stocks that could benefit from China's stimulus efforts. China's recent economic challenges have been evident, with the country experiencing its longest period of deflation since 1999.

Persons: Anshul Gupta, Larry Hu, Hu, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Evelyn Cheng Organizations: Barclays, People's Bank of China, Prudential, L'Oreal, carmakers BMW, Mercedes, Rio Tinto, U.S, Prudential plc, Macquarie Locations: China, Rio, China's

☆ The Chinese yuan surged to a 16-month high, but Beijing may not be happy about it
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

China's stimulus package has boosted market sentiment and pushed the Chinese yuan to a 16-month high. But a strong yuan could hurt exports, a key pillar of China's economy, amid weak domestic demand. AdvertisementChina's massive stimulus package for its battered economy has boosted market sentiment and injected confidence into the Chinese yuan. This means $1 could buy fewer Chinese yuan. A strong yuan is bad for exportsEven though a strong yuan signals confidence in China's economy, analysts aren't sure the gains will hold.

Persons: —, Pan Gongsheng, Vishnu, Varathan, Larry Hu, Hu, aren't, Pan, Macquarie's Hu Organizations: People's Bank of China, Service, US Federal Reserve, Macquarie Group, Lombard, Bloomberg Locations: Asia, Japan, China, Beijing, Swiss, China's

☆ China needs more than rate cuts to boost economic growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Evelyn Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Cfoto | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China's slowing economy needs more than interest rate cuts to boost growth, analysts said. He expects Beijing will likely ramp up fiscal stimulus due to weak growth, despite reluctance so far. "The market is forming a medium to long-term expectation on the U.S. growth rate, the inflation rate. As for Chinese government bonds, Ding said the firm has a "neutral" view and expects the Chinese yields to remain relatively low. He pointed out that monetary easing still requires fiscal stimulus "to achieve the effect of expanding credit and transmitting money to the real economy."

Persons: Larry Hu, That's, Edmund Goh, Yifei Ding, Ding, CF40, Pan Gongsheng, Haizhong Chang, Chang Organizations: China Resources, Getty, BEIJING, People's Bank of China, Macquarie, U.S, of Finance, PBOC, Ministry of Finance, Fitch Locations: China, Nanjing, Jiangsu province, abrdn, Beijing, U.S, Invesco

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Some caution might be good for markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-25 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. While analysts think this move may mark the end of China's deflationary streak, many think monetary policy is not enough. How much will oil demand grow? The International Energy Agency thinks oil demand will level off at 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade.

Persons: Larry Hu, Consumer's, September's, Dow Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, U.S ., People's Bank of China, Macquarie, International Energy Agency, U.S, U.S . Federal, Barclays, Citi Locations: Corte Madera, Corte Madera , California, Asia, Pacific, China, U.S .

☆ The yen is strengthening, but foreign investors are staying bullish on Japanese equities
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Hakyung Kim | In Hakyungkim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For investors holding Japanese assets denominated in yen, the decline of the currency led to the value of their gains increasing. McManus isn't the only one who increased his exposure into the Japanese market following the early August sell-off. Before the yen started to strengthen, "Japanese investors could benefit because their lives and portfolios are denominated in yen. As a result, an appreciating yen will help overseas investors realize gains from the Japanese market as it continues its rebound. "This suggests that, if the cycle is heading towards [a] period of persistent yen strength, global investors should overweight Japan," Jefferies said.

Persons: —, we're, Janus Henderson, Julian McManus, McManus, Jefferies, Shrikant Kale, Janus Henderson's McManus, Morgan Stanley, Daniel Blake, Peter Perkins, Perkins Organizations: Toyota, Bank of, U.S, Nikkei, Bank of America, Macro Research, Partners, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan

☆ S&P 500 to reach 6,000 next year even with latest rotation out of tech, says Janney strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The current market rotation into small-cap stocks shouldn't come at the expense of the broader equity rally, according to Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott . In fact, Luschini's call for the S & P 500 is that the index could rise to the 6,000 level in the next 12 months. While some investors have called into question the longevity of the current rotation into small-cap names, Luschini believes that the trend's legitimacy has been proven thus far. But at this point, the lagging sectors have built on the gains they have established in the last several weeks to push the market higher. That said, the strategist emphasized the importance of the technology sector in carrying the S & P 500 to his 6,000 target next year.

Persons: Mark Luschini, Janney Montgomery Scott, Luschini, we've, There's Organizations: CNBC, Luschini Locations: U.S

☆ Chinese government bonds are on fire. That’s ringing alarms bells in Beijing
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

“What worries policymakers is the interest rate risk, which will rise once the dominant narrative shifts from deflation to reflation,” Hu from Macquarie said. If that happens, bond yields will rise as investors switch back into riskier stocks. The country’s “4,000 or so small and medium-sized banks” will be particularly vulnerable to the interest rate risk, he added. “The bubble formed by the rush of funds into the bond market is accumulating interest rate risks,” the Securities Times said in an editorial. Economic risksThe rapid decline in Chinese bond yields also poses significant risks to the economy.

Persons: “, ”, Pan Gongsheng, SVB, Larry Hu, ” Hu, Macquarie, Hu, Zhang Jiqiang, Ken Cheung Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Silicon Valley Bank, People’s Bank of China, prudential, “, Federal Reserve, Macquarie Group, Zheshang Securities, Securities Times, Japan’s Norinchukin Bank, Huatai Securities, Mizuho Securities Locations: Hong Kong, Silicon, United States, Shanghai, China, Beijing, SVB, outflows

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with BTIG Co-Founder Steven Starker on the reflation trade and AI hype
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with BTIG Co-Founder Steven Starker on the reflation trade and AI hypeCNBC's Bob Pisani sits down with BTIG co-founder Steven Starker at the firm's 18th annual Commissions for Charity Day, which brought celebrities from the sports, media, movie and political worlds to the company's trading floor.

Persons: BTIG, Steven Starker, Bob Pisani Organizations: Charity

Analyst Edward Kelly upgraded the discount retailer to overweight from equal weight and opened a $180 price target. Yefremov's $400 price target indicates shares can jump 31.7% from Wednesday's closing price. Analyst Andrea Teixeira downgraded the energy drink maker to neutral from overweight and cut her price target by $7 to $59. — Alex Harring 5:38 a.m.: Wall Street reacts to Meta earnings Meta Platforms disappointed investors with its weak revenue guidance , sending shares down about 13% in premarket trading. His price target of $55 implies upside of 22% over the next 12 months.

Persons: Bernstein, Wells, Edward Kelly, shrinkflation, Kelly, — Alex Harring, Sherwin, Williams, Aleksey Yefremov, Yefremov, Doug Creutz, Creutz, Judas, Goldman, bullish, Goldman Sachs, Brooke Roach, Roach, Andrea Teixeira, Alex Harring, Ford, Wells Fargo, Colin Langan, Langan, LSEG, Eric Sheridan, Brian Nowak, Morgan Stanley, Doug Anmuth, Ronald Josey, Daniel Roeska, Roeska, General Motors, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, General Motors, Traders, Grand Theft, Sony, Electronic Arts, TJX, TJX Companies, JPMorgan, Monster Beverage, Ford, Ford Pro, Facebook, Meta, Citi, mojo, General, GM Locations: Wells Fargo, Thursday's, Wednesday's, Michigan

☆ Citi upgrades energy sector, says geopolitical tensions could keep oil prices higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The energy sector should continue to outperform as oil prices are likely to remain higher for longer on geopolitical risk even without a major escalation in the Middle East, according to Citi. The energy sector has gained 13% this year, outperforming the broader S & P 500 . .GSPE .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 energy sector outperforms Refinery stock Marathon Petroleum is leading the sector's performance with a gain of 33% year to date. "Our commodity team see higher for longer oil given the geopolitical risk even as a severe escalation seems unlikely." "However, in the short-term, the global reflation theme and tensions in the Middle East are keeping prices supported," the Citi team told clients.

Persons: Dirk Willer Organizations: Citi, Energy, Marathon Petroleum, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Brent Locations: Refinery, Israel, Iran, Rafah, Russia, Saudi Arabia

☆ 'Big change' in global growth is bullish for commodities including copper, says VanEck CEO
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Meredith Mutter | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors should consider commodities due to a "big change" involving international expansion, according to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck. "The world economy started growing again," van Eck told CNBC's "ETF Edge" this week. Manufacturing PMI is now positive in China as of March," said van Eck. Its exchange-traded funds include the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and VanEck Oil Refiners ETF (CRAK) . Van Eck highlights copper 's momentum as a positive sign for demand.

Persons: Jan van Eck, van Eck, CNBC's, Van Eck Organizations: PMI, Gold Miners Locations: China

☆ The Japanese don't necessarily want a much stronger yen: HSBC economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Japanese don't necessarily want a much stronger yen: HSBC economistFrederic Neumann, HSBC's chief Asia economist, discusses the outlook for yen intervention, and says "the weak yen plays a functional role in Japan's reflation — the Japanese don't want necessarily a much stronger yen, so long as the depreciation is orderly."

Persons: Frederic Neumann, Japan's reflation Organizations: HSBC Locations: HSBC's, Asia

☆ Watch now: ETF Edge on how Middle East concerns, inflation & reflation has commodities on the move
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

[The stream is slated to start at 1:00 PM ET. Please refresh the page if you do not see a player above at that time.] CNBC's ETF Edge is dedicated to the fastest-growing trend in investing right now: ETFs. Every Monday, Bob Pisani will be joined by a panel of top market participants to offer educational and actionable advice to help you build your best portfolio.

Persons: Bob Pisani Organizations: Edge

☆ VanEck CEO on the reflation trade and how investors can navigate this uncertain environment
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailVanEck CEO on the reflation trade and how investors can navigate this uncertain environmentJan Van Eck, VanEck Associates CEO, joins CNBC's Bob Pisani on 'ETF Edge' to discuss the reflation trade, how investors can position during this uncertain time, and assess VanEck's latest ETF products.

Persons: Jan Van Eck, Bob Pisani Organizations: VanEck

☆ Stocks are undergoing a needed, and (so far) modest, pullback in a longer-term bull market
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-13 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The result was a 1.5-percent weekly drop in the S & P 500 , with Friday's setback exacerbated at least somewhat by a collective clenching-up of risk markets on some geopolitical worry. This dynamic hasn't been reversed, but the signal has grown a bit staticky, draining some conviction from the macro bullish case with the S & P 500 still 24% above the October low. Bull market's backdrop First, it's a bull market, and not a particularly mature or excessively generous one yet. Yet both stocks are still outperforming the S & P this year. The S & P 500 closed Friday at exactly the same level of five weeks earlier, on March 8 – which was perhaps the moment of maximum investor confidence in the "we can have it all" thesis.

Persons: I've, Jerome Powell, Powell, Wall, it's, We're, John Butters, Fastenal, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, ICE, Treasury, CPI, Fed, Grainger, Citi

☆ Winners and losers now that the reflation trade is back. Who does well and who struggles
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-11 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

To see the impact of higher inflation and higher interest rates on companies, just look at the earnings release for CarMax this morning. For example, higher rates are generally bad for REITs beause REITs rely on debt financing. Higher rates also mean increased borrowing costs for utilities, which carry a lot of debt because they use a lot of capital. The problem is, energy and material stocks have already been rising due to higher oil and a still strong economy. Other potential beneficiaries of higher rates with a strong economy are defensive stocks, which tend to be less interest rate sensitive, like Kroger or Walmart .

Organizations: Energy, Communication, Kroger, Walmart Locations: Meta

☆ Yen feels the heat as U.S. Treasury yields climb
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The greenback added 0.03% to 151.87 yen , holding near a 34-year high of 151.975 yen hit last month as Japanese officials continued to ramp up their jawboning efforts in a bid to defend the currency. The threat of intervention from Tokyo has kept the dollar from breaching the closely-watched 152 yen level, even as U.S. Treasury yields — which the dollar/yen pair tends to closely track — climb. Sterling tacked on 0.04% to $1.2658, while the euro steadied at $1.0860, holding near a two-week high. Despite a rise in U.S. Treasury yields the dollar has failed to draw meaningful support as traders reassess their expectations of the pace and scale of Federal Reserve rate cuts priced in by markets for later this year. That's come even as the two-year Treasury yield rose to an over four-month high of 4.8010% on Tuesday, while the benchmark 10-year yield likewise held near an over four-month peak and last stood at 4.4278%.

Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Ryota Abe, Sterling, That's, It's, Ray Attrill Organizations: Treasury, Finance, SMBC, New Zealand, National Australia Bank Locations: U.S, Tokyo, United States

☆ JPMorgan reveals its favorite European stock picks — giving one over 93% upside
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Amala Balakrishner | In Amala-Balakrishner | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

JPMorgan uncovered several top European stocks it says offer substantial upside potential — as well as some "unattractive" names — right now. The bank is underweight on the euro zone, given that its "Growth-Policy trade-off" is "likely to deteriorate further." Nevertheless, JPMorgan sees pockets of opportunity in the European market. Here are five stocks from its list of "top European picks" which stand out for having substantial upside potential, according to FactSet's consensus price targets: 'Unattractive stocks' JPMorgan also revealed its list of "unattractive stocks" from a sector it's underweight on — banking. Stocks named as " unattractive" include Lloyds Banking Group , BNP Paribas , Svenska Handelsbanken AB and Bank of Ireland Group .

Persons: Mislav Matejka, Banks, Stocks, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan, Lloyds Banking Group, BNP, Svenska Handelsbanken, Bank of Ireland Group

☆ China's deflation problem keeps getting worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

In the latest sign of the country's worsening deflation problem, fresh data showed consumer prices in China tumbled in January at the sharpest rate in 14 years. AdvertisementOn an annualized month-over-month basis, consumer prices fell 4.3%, with particular weakness in food prices. Measured year-over-year for January:Pork prices fell 17.3%Vegetable prices fell 12.7%Fruit prices fell 9.1%The producer price index, too, dropped 2.5%, while service prices climbed at 0.5% on the year, half the rate seen in December. The more consumer prices fall, the more difficult it will be for Beijing to reverse. Foreign investors have already fled Chinese markets in droves over the last year, and ongoing deflation could spell trouble for earnings of Chinese companies.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, National Bureau, Statistics, Bloomberg, Institute of International Finance Locations: China, China's, Beijing

☆ China stock market: Calm returns after wild week but big challenges remain
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-26 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Hong Kong CNN —It’s been a rollercoaster week for stocks trading in mainland China and Hong Kong. “For a sustained rally in China stocks, we think China will need to address the core of these concerns (predominantly property sector issues and US-China tensions),” the analysts added. In the 7 days to January 24, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking Chinese stocks recorded large inflows of $12.6 billion, according to a Citi survey of global fund managers. Still, investors have been fleeing Chinese stocks over a much longer period because they are worried about the country’s economic prospects. The country is facing the prospect of a vicious cycle whereby lower demand leads to lower investment, lower production and lower income, thus causing even lower demand.

Persons: Hong Kong CNN — It’s, Hong, — haven’t, ” Nomura, “, Li Qiang, ”, Li Yunze, Pan Gongsheng, Florence Lo, HSI, Raymond Yeung, ” Yeung Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Shanghai Shenzhen, ”, Shanghai Financial Exchange, Bloomberg, State, Supervision, Administration Commission, Administration of Financial, Reuters, People’s Bank of China, Citi, Enodo Economics, HSBC, Greater China, ANZ Research Locations: China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, United States, Beijing, Davos, Switzerland, Greater

☆ China's Nov services activity accelerates on boost from new orders - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The findings present a mixed picture of the vast services sector as an official survey last week showed the sector unexpectedly contracted for the first time since December last year, prompting calls for more stimulus measures. "Both services supply and demand expanded, as the market continued to heal," said Wang Zhe, economist at Caixin Insight Group. Analysts say the different survey sizes and composition of surveyed companies might explain the discrepancy between the Caixin and official PMI readings. Caixin/S&P's composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, grew to 51.6 from 50.0 in October, marking the strongest reading since August. According to the Caixin services survey, employment fell for the first time since the start of 2023 as some firms maintained a cautious approach to hiring.

Persons: Wang Zhe, Wang, Louise Loo, spender, Loo, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: P Global, Caixin Insight, PMI, Oxford, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, October's, China

☆ Morgan Stanley reveals its outlook for Asian stocks, says one major index is set to soar 11% in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Morgan Stanley has revealed a bullish call on Japanese stocks for 2024. China and emerging markets However, Morgan Stanley remains cautious on other Asian markets going into the first half of 2024. The bank's strategists lowered their target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to 1,000, implying a modest 4% upside from current levels. They cited slowing global growth, higher interest rates, and currency weakness versus the U.S. dollar as headwinds for emerging markets. Morgan Stanley expects strong nominal GDP growth above 11% annually in 2024 and 2025 thanks to "young demographic and geopolitical alignment," which will drive earnings higher.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jonathan F, Garner, Tom Stevenson, Morgan, CNBC's Michael Bloom, Penny Chen Organizations: U.S ., Amundi, Fidelity International, CNBC Pro, U.S Locations: Amundi Japan, Japan, China, India

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