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AdvertisementMeredith Whitney expects home prices to fall by 10% to 20% as the frozen housing market starts thawing. The veteran researcher said baby boomers aren't selling, restricting the number of homes available. Home prices are poised to fall by up to a fifth as the frozen housing market thaws — and that could help baby boomers sell at last and younger people to become homeowners, Meredith Whitney says. Advertisement"The problem is the baby boomers own 60% of the housing stock," she said, referring to single-family, owner-occupied homes. AdvertisementSeveral economists have predicted a "silver tsunami" as baby boomers sell their homes to downsize or move into care homes, increasing the available supply of single-family homes and reducing prices.
Persons: Meredith Whitney, It's, Price, Whitney, millennials Organizations: Meredith Whitney Advisory Group, Homeowners, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, CNBC
Roofing is also one of the fastest-growing jobs in the U.S., with nearly 15,000 jobs expected to be added each year over the next decade. She launched her own roofing business, B. Barela Construction, in February 2021. Her combined income from running B. Barela Construction and working in real estate is more than $70,000 (she declined to share her exact salary). Ahead of her fourth year in business, Tena says she hopes to scale the business into a full-time career. She attended Santa Fe Community College on and off between 1995 and 2002, waffling between entering business, law or real estate, but never finishing her bachelor's degree.
Persons: Bridgette Tena, Tena, they've, Tena's, Lino Barela, We're, Organizations: CNBC, U.S . Department of Labor, Santa Fe Community College, Realtors Locations: Santa Fe , New Mexico, U.S, Santa Fe, New Mexico, Denver , Colorado, Santa
Yun: Reducing spending brings down interest rates
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYun: Reducing spending brings down interest ratesLawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, explains that reducing the national deficit could help lower mortgage rates by impacting bond yields. Although the Fed has cut rates, 10-year yields remain high due to budget deficits.
Persons: Lawrence Yun Organizations: Yun, National Association of Realtors
AdvertisementAyriel Von Schert, 30, wanted to buy a home and didn't want to wait until she was married. Von Schert, a real-estate agent, said she's worked with other single women who have also bought homes alone. Recently, I've helped a couple of other single women buy their own homes. AdvertisementI also don't think it's a good idea to commit to anything permanent with someone you're not in a permanent relationship with. AdvertisementI don't think he minds, because we no longer have a landlord telling us what we can or can't do.
Persons: Von Schert, she's, Ayriel Von Schert, I've, we're, wasn't, it's, I'm Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Mesa , Arizona —, Phoenix, Homeowners Association Locations: Mesa , Arizona, Phoenix
Don't expect 'huge swings' on mortgage ratesElection uncertainty contributed to an upward swing in mortgage rates during October. But now that we have a president-elect, mortgage rates are expected to gradually come down over time, Lautz said. Experts say that mortgage rates might head into a "bumpy" or "volatile" path over the next year. "Our expectation is that rates are going to be in the 6% range as we move into 2025," she said. For example, if you bought your home around this time last year, when mortgage rates peaked at around 8%, you might benefit from a mortgage refinance, Lautz said.
Persons: Freddie Mac, it's, Jessica Lautz, Lautz, Jerome Powell, Robert Dietz, Jessica Lautz Jessica Lautz, Jeff Ostrowski, Jacob Channel Organizations: Getty, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Treasury, Trump, Federal, CNBC Locations: U.S
President-elect Donald Trump wants to address housing affordability in the U.S. by fomenting the construction of new homes. "We're going to open up tracks of federal land for housing construction," Trump said during an Aug. 15 news conference. While building more homes is the simpler answer to address the housing issue in the country, other promises Trump has made could deter affordability efforts, experts say. He also claimed that he would pull down mortgage rates back to pandemic-era lows, although presidents do not control mortgage rates, experts say. Here's how some of Trump's policies could affect the housing market during his administration, according to experts:
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Jim Tobin, it's, Jacob Channel Organizations: National Association of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders, Finance, Federal Reserve, Social Security, LendingTree Locations: U.S
Manufactured housing, sometimes called mobile homes, are homes made in a factory rather than constructed on site, and they have been surging in popularity this year amid America’s housing crisis. Instead, they’re turning to the internet for lower-cost options, whether a pop-up foldable house kit, a tiny home or a traditional mobile home. Amazon is not the first major retailer to sell manufactured homes. More than 100 years ago, American retailer Sears, Roebuck and Co began selling kit homes from its catalog, with some for under $1,000. A 2023 Urban Institute paper argued that mobile homes were “uniquely vulnerable” to natural disasters compared to other housing.
Persons: Julie Johnson, homeownership, SSRS, George Rose, Donald Trump, Sears, Marc Norman, ” Norman, Katie Currid, , Norman, Johnson, ” Johnson, Rebecca Blackwell, Johnson’s, Julie Johnson's, Patrick Harker, ” Harker, , ” CNN’s Chris Isidore Organizations: CNN, Facebook, National Association of Realtors, Getty, Census Bureau, Sears, Roebuck, Schack Institute of Real, New York University, Daily News, Urban, Hurricane, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Locations: North Carolina, America, Boulder City, Boulder City , Nevada, Staunton , Virginia, Staunton, Mobile, Hurricane Milton, Englewood , Florida
Many Americans have been holding back from jumping into the housing market in the hopes that mortgage rates will decline. The average 30-year mortgage rate has been above 6% for two years — and is likely to stay above that level for the foreseeable future, experts say. “Sixes are the new normal,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a mortgage listing services group, referring to 6% mortgage rates. It’s really not going to be impacting mortgage rates at all.”Mortgage rates work differently. When demand for those increases, mortgage rates tend to fall.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, , Lisa Sturtevant, Brian Rehling, Trump, Mike Fratantoni, ” Fratantoni, Helene, ” Samuel Tombs, Tombs, Sturtevant, “ It’s Organizations: Federal, Bright MLS, Federal Reserve, Wells, Investment Institute, , U.S, Mortgage, Association, , National Association of Realtors, Pantheon, NBC
Landlords, realtors, and some pro-housing groups opposed the measure, but the California Democratic Party, tenant groups, and some unions supported it. California voters did, however, vote to enshrine a state constitutional right to marry regardless of sex or race and to issue bonds for natural resource conservation. Related storiesThough Lurie is a Democrat, he received the support of some Republican groups in San Francisco who have criticized Breed's handling of crime, drug use, and homelessness in the city. AdvertisementOther signs California was turning more redBefore Election Day, there were some signs the state's electorate had shifted to the right. California is still tallying its votes, so exactly how much the presidential vote changed from 2020 to 2024 is unclear.
Persons: , Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom's, Voters, Allen J, Incumbent San Francisco Mayor London Breed, Daniel Lurie, Lurie, Levi Strauss, Mark Farrell, George Gascón, Gascón, Nathan Hochman, Harris, Joe Biden Organizations: Service, Democratic, SpaceX, Republican, Trump, State, Democratic Gov, realtors, California Democratic Party, Los Angeles Times, Getty, Incumbent San Francisco Mayor London, Democrat, The San Francisco Republican, Los, Public, Institute of California Locations: California, Texas, Coachella, San Francisco, The, Los Angeles County, Los Angeles, Illinois , New Jersey , New York , Connecticut, Maryland
"The expectation among bond traders coming into the election was that rates would move higher in the event of a Trump victory and especially a red sweep. "The builder stocks are highly sensitive to mortgage rates and mortgage rate expectations. Big builders have been buying down mortgage rates for their customers, but that has been cutting into their margins. Mortgage rates don't follow the Fed, but do react to the central bank's thinking on the economy. Stronger-than-expected economic reports in September and October caused bond yields, and consequently mortgage rates, to move higher.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Matthew Graham, Horton, PulteGroup, Lowe's, John Burns, Trump, Carl Harris, Graham Organizations: Mortgage News, Trump, . Housing, John Burns Real Estate Consulting, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors Locations: U.S, D.R
'The biggest issue of housing today'The housing shortage in the U.S. is "the biggest issue of housing today," said Orphe Divounguy, senior economist at Zillow. As of mid-2023, there's a housing shortage of 4 million homes, according to the NAR. Rent prices increased faster than tenants' wages during the pandemic. "We're seeing renters staying renters for longer because affordability has been so squeezed," he said. High rent prices not only affect your ability to save money to buy a home, it can affect your ability to pay down any existing debt, Lautz said.
Persons: homebuyer, Jessica Lautz, Orphe Divounguy, Jonathan Scott, Scott, Selma Hepp, Divounguy, Lautz Organizations: National Association of Realtors, NAR, HGTV, CNBC Locations: U.S
My grandparents' vacation cabin in Lake Tahoe is the stuff of legend. My grandparents' little house in South Lake Tahoe, which they bought for $113,000 in 1984, quickly became a haven for my family. Framers of the Tahoe tax measure took inspiration from Berkeley, California, which adopted a vacancy tax this year. Since the city of South Lake Tahoe was incorporated in 1965, it's been populated by a healthy mix of year-round and seasonal residents. As of October 2024, the median sales price for homes in South Lake Tahoe was $750,000, according to Realtor.com.
Persons: George Rose, it's, Amelia Richmond, , Steve Teshara, Teshara, Frederic Lewis, Sherri Maslyar, Jeff Cowen, we'd, Amanda Yen, I'd Organizations: of Commerce, South Tahoe Association of Realtors, BI, Colorado and, Survey, Tahoe Chamber of Commerce, Realtors ' Association, Business, Tahoe, Planning Association Locations: Tahoe, South Lake, Berkeley , California, Oahu, Colorado, Aspen, Vail, Breckenridge, Bay, Colorado and Utah, Park City , Utah, Richmond, Emerald
The average age of homebuyers in the U.S. has risen by six years since July 2023 — another sign that younger Americans are being priced out of the market due to escalating ownership costs. The average age of homebuyers is now 56, up from 49 in 2023, according to the National Association of Realtors' annual state-of-the-market report released Monday. That's a historic high, up from an average age in the low-to-mid 40s in the early 2010s. The median age of first-time buyers also rose from 35 to 38, while the share of first-timers dropped from 32% to 24% of all buyers for the year ending July 2024. The median U.S. home price is now $435,000, per NAR — up 39% since 2020 — while the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has more than doubled to over 6% in that time.
Persons: I've, Bob Driscoll Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Rockland Trust Locations: U.S, Massachusetts, Rockland
Like first-time buyers, the typical repeat buyer has gotten older, with their median age increasing to 61 years from 58 last year. Repeat buyers’ median household income rose to $114,300 from $111,700 in the last year, as well, according to the NAR. First-time homebuyers may have trouble competing with repeat buyers, who could possibly have sold an existing home to purchase a new one. Repeat buyers were able to enter the housing market with much larger down payments (median 23%) than first-time homebuyers (median 9%). Thirty-one percent of repeat buyers paid all cash for their homes.
Persons: homebuyers, homebuyer, , Jessica Lautz, ” Lautz Organizations: CNN, National Association of Realtors, NAR Locations: America
The typical age of a first-time homebuyer in the US has reached an all-time high: 38. First-time buyers make up 24% of all buyers, the lowest level since NAR started tracking in 1981. The changing characteristics of the typical first-time homebuyer in America are proof of the strain. The typical first-time buyer now has a median age of 38 — up from 35 in 2023. The typical first-time homebuyer is richer than ever, too.
Persons: It's, , — Gen Zers, millennials, haven't, Jorge Argota, Argota, He's Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Service, NAR Locations: America, Miami, Florida
One bit of clarity they’re sure to get: The Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate decision, due to be announced Thursday. The Fed lowered borrowing costs in September for the first time in more than four years while signaling additional rate cuts. But a slew of economic figures have been released since the decision, which is important because the Fed’s decision are guided by what those figures show. Investors are betting with near certainty that the Fed will deliver a quarter-point cut, according to futures. Lower rates could entice home buyers to come off the sidelines, and for businesses it could continue plans that have “baked in” lower rates.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell’s, America’s, Harris, Harris ’, ” “, Lawrence Yun, ” Yun, they’re, It’s Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, The Wall Street, US, Trump, Federal Reserve, Duke University, Institute for Supply, National Association of Realtors
Mortgage rates may affect payoff calculusThe mortgage payoff calculus may change based on whether people can outearn their mortgage rates with safe, guaranteed investments, Benz said. For mortgage rates that are 6% or more, paying that balance off will provide a guaranteed return. Admittedly, the argument over whether to pay off mortgages is "much more emotional and psychological than it is financial," Jenkin said. The big money questions people ask themselves to prepare for retirement are just as important as the emotional ones. What brought you joy while you were working may change in retirement, Michael Finke, a professor of wealth management at The American College of Financial Services, tells Benz.
Persons: Jessica Lautz, Benz, JL Collins, Collins, Robert Daly, Ted Jenkin, Jenkin, Michael Finke Organizations: Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, National Association of Realtors, Benz, Getty, CNBC, CNBC FA, The American College of Financial Services Locations: Atlanta
Home transaction activity is up since mortgage rates are down from their peak. The US housing market perked up after mortgage rates plunged from their mid-summer peak through mid-September, even though they've experienced a remarkable resurgence since then. Pending home sales rose 7.4% in September, which was the largest leap since the spring, a late-October report from the National Association of Realtors found. "Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady." 7 affordable cities with home inventoryEven though homeowners have been reluctant to give buyers a discount, there are still places where aspiring proprietors can find fair deals.
Persons: , they've, Lawrence Yun, Realtor.com, Ralph McLaughlin Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors Locations: Realtor.com
That shortage also affects rent prices. In August, Harris unveiled a multi-pronged plan to lower housing costs. The plan also includes two main proposals to lower rent costs. Both plans to lower rent would be subject to congressional approval, meaning that the measures may be difficult to pass even if Harris wins the presidency. Unlike Harris, Trump has not rolled out a formal housing plan, but he has tied plans to deport undocumented immigrants to housing.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, “ It’s, , Jim Parrott, That’s, ” Parrott, Mario Tama, Freddie Mac, Harris, Trump, “ We’re, homeownership, SSRS, , Nick Pappas Organizations: CNN, Urban Institute, National Economic Council, SSRS, National Association of Realtors, Trump, Economic, of New, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Locations: Arizona , Nevada , Wisconsin , Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Los Angeles , California, America, of New York, Kansas
Sales of single-family homes were down 12% in September compared with the same time in the previous year. But interest rates, rising home prices and skyrocketing insurance costs likely played bigger roles than the recent hurricanes. “Florida recovers much faster than you think,” said Brad O’Connor, chief economist for Florida Realtors. Because of stricter building codes implemented in the years after Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida in 1992, newer homes withstand hurricanes better than older ones, O’Connor said. The number of households dropped from about 340,000 to about 326,000, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Persons: , Brad O’Connor, Hurricane Andrew, O’Connor, , Hurricane Ian Organizations: Florida Realtors, . Census, Van Lines, Associated Press Locations: Florida, South Florida, Lee County, Fort Myers, United States
Homebuilder Meritage Homes could see outsized growth even in the midst of a housing lull, thanks to a strategy that emphasizes homes that are "move-in ready," according to Goldman Sachs. Existing home sales remain sluggish and housing turnover below historical norms due to affordability issues for consumers hit by higher mortgage rates. But even against a backdrop of tight housing supply, Goldman analyst Susan Maklari expects Meritage to outshine competitors owing to a unique strategy. Maklari believes Meritage is poised for further upside to its 2028 targets because the company offers a competitive proposition to buyers. Meritage provides a "turnkey solution" to consumers — fully outfitted units that don't need add-ons — with a 60-day closing guarantee on homes.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Susan Maklari, Maklari, Meritage Organizations: realtors, Elliott Homes
Agents might be emboldened to share listings among private networks of in-the-know brokers rather than market them to everyone. And if the goal is a transparent market that prioritizes consumers, the clear-cooperation policy is a flawed tool. Redfin estimated that in the second quarter of 2019, about 1.7% of listings, or some 18,000 homes, were likely pocketed. In a hot market, it's easier for brokers to market a home off the databases and still get it sold. What has changed since the rule went into effect is brokerages' eagerness to control access to home listings.
Persons: Smart, , they'll, Brian Boero, Goliath, Davids, MLSes, doesn't, weren't, Joe Schmo, Saul Klein, Howard Hanna's, Howard Hanna IV, Robert Reffkin, Mauricio Umansky, Redfin, Glenn Kelman, Kelman, haven't, Victor Lund, There's, Buckle Organizations: MLS, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Coldwell, Network, San Diego, Compass, Service, of Justice
These so-called "pending" sales were at the highest level since March and 2.6% higher than September of last year. Since pending sales are based on signed contracts, representing people out shopping during the month, it is the most current indicator of buyer demand. "Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow, and mortgage rates hold steady." Regionally pending sales were higher year over year in the Northeast and West and flat in the Midwest and South. The levels of mortgage demand are still historically low, and sales, while higher, are as well.
Persons: Lawrence Yun, Selma Hepp Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Analysts, Mortgage News, Realtors, Mortgage, Association Locations: Northeast, West, Midwest, homebuyers
Detailed below is what Harris and Trump have proposed in order to address these worries. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have both pledged to address high prices by boosting the supply of homes. Related storiesThe Democratic candidate also said she plans to expand the existing low-income housing tax credit, which incentivizes the rehabilitation or building of housing targeted at lower-income households. As president, Trump proposed major cuts to the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development's budget, including slashing housing assistance and community development aid. AdvertisementWhile in office in 2017, Trump proposed a budget for the 2018 fiscal year that would have significantly cut rural housing subsidies.
Persons: Harris, Trump, , Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Daryl Fairweather, Redfin, Fairweather, Jessica Lautz, multifamily Organizations: Service, Business, Democratic, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Builders, of Housing, Urban, National Association of Realtors, Democratic Party Locations: America
watch nowMany factors make it hard to buy a home today, but the one that makes "the biggest difference" in today's market is the housing shortage, Property Brother Drew Scott said at CNBC's Your Money event on Thursday. "I don't think people realize this shortage of housing that we have affects everything," added his brother Jonathan Scott. Why there's a housing shortageAs of mid-2023, there's a housing shortage of 4 million homes, according to the National Association of Realtors. While there have been recent signs of improvement for housing supply, it's not enough to solve the underlying constraint in the U.S. housing market. 'It's ok if you wait a few years'The Property Brothers Drew Scott (L) and Jonathan Scott.
Persons: Drew Scott, Jonathan Scott, Jonathan, Jason Davis Organizations: Census, Federal Reserve, CNBC, National Association of Realtors, Construction, Getty Locations: U.S
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