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Such a scenario would entail higher inflation, higher rates, and falling stock prices, Roubini predicted. "That's going to crowd economic growth, and bond yields above 5% would imply a correction of stock prices and negative impacts on the economy." AdvertisementOther experts have warned some of Trump's policies could lead to higher inflation and interest rates, with his tariff plan attracting significant criticism from economists. Some of Trump's policies — like his plans to loosen regulation — could prop up business activity and fuel growth, Roubini noted. "I think markets are still in a wait-and-see to figure out whether the policies are going to be hurting the economy," Roubini said.
Persons: Nouriel Roubini, Roubini, , Donald Trump's, Doom, prognostications, Trump, Trump's, Taylor Rogers, hin, Stocks Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, stoke, Republican National Committee, Trump, Fed, Bank of America, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: China
Partisans from both sides routinely cite early voting data to promote their candidates and express optimism or try to juice turnout based on supposedly weak numbers. Like many political observers, including at CNN, Musk has noticed the better-than-2020 GOP performance in early voting in North Carolina, Nevada and other key states. Registered Republicans make up about 32% of the early vote in Pennsylvania so far, up from 21% at this point in 2020. The improved GOP position in early voting that Musk highlighted is happening in other states as well. Not all registered Republicans will vote for Trump, and not all registered Democrats will back Harris.
Persons: Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, , won’t, David Becker, Trump, Musk, ” Becker, would’ve, isn’t, Ben Ginsberg, , ” Ginsberg, Harris, ” Isaac Saul Organizations: CNN — Tech, , Election Innovation, Research, Trump, ” Trump, CNN, Musk’s, Pennsylvania, Republican National Committee Locations: Pennsylvania, Virginia, Pennsylvania –, North Carolina , Nevada, New Jersey, Catalist, North Carolina, Arizona
Both have opined that the rally on Wall Street underscores a growing belief that former President Donald Trump will win on Nov. 5. However, I don't yet believe that Wall Street and Pennsylvania Avenue have intersected just yet. Indeed, if the stock market is anticipating a Trump victory, what might the bond market and gold market be telling us, assuming they expect the same outcome? Are those markets telling us a Trump victory would lead to higher inflation and bigger fiscal deficits? Those betting on a Trump win would be loath to say so if they follow the messages of multiple markets.
Persons: Stanley Druckenmiller, Dan Loeb, Donald Trump, Loeb, it's, Dow Jones, Kamala Harris, Trump, Ron Insana Organizations: Senate, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Atlanta, Dow, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, European Central Bank, Trump, stoke, Democratic, Pennsylvania, CNBC Locations: U.S
Jamie Dimon said he expects to stay at JPMorgan "for a long period" rather than join the government. One way that Dimon might do that after stepping down as CEO is to stay on as chairman. "I intend to be doing what I'm doing — I almost guarantee I'll be doing this — for a long period of time, or at least until the board kicks me out," he said. (The firm has previously said it intends to separate the CEO and chairman roles after Dimon steps down.) The Wells Fargo analyst on Friday suggested Dimon has been commenting on government pontifications in the past year more than at any other time in his career, raising questions about his political aspirations.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , Dimon, isn't, Lloyd Blankfeld, David Solomon, I've, wouldn't, Goldman Sachs, he's, Wells, Warren Buffett Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, JPMorgan Chase, Citi, Bank of America Locations: Wells Fargo, American
But that has not stopped Trump from recycling some of the same dark portents about a Kamala Harris presidency. Even God was not safe from a Biden presidency, Trump warned. You’re going to have to learn to speak Chinese,” Trump told conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt in August 2020. "She wants no Merry Christmas," Trump said. The suburbs are also doomed if Harris wins, Trump told rallygoers last week in Tucson, Arizona, warning that Harris' team "wants to abolish the suburbs."
Persons: , ” Donald Trump, Trump’s, Joe Biden’s, Trump, Kamala Harris, ” Trump, Biden, you’ve, Stocks, Harris, TRUMP, Joe Biden, , Biden’s, God ”, God, Trump's auguring, Hugh Hewitt, “ You’ll, “ Kamala Harris, rallygoers Organizations: , New Hampshire voters, Michigan, National Retail Federation, Republican National Convention, Biden, Fox News, North Carolina rallygoers, Trump, Biden's Locations: America, , Goodyear , Arizona, Nevada, Florida, U.S, Mexico, ” In Ohio, China, United States, Georgia, Wisconsin, Tucson , Arizona, ” America, San Francisco, California, Las Vegas, North Carolina
Was it the Parisians who bluntly told travelers "do not come" to Paris during the Summer Games? London, Athens and Atlanta all saw a drop in summer visitors when they hosted the Summer Games, said Grant. Empty Airbnbs and unsold ticketsHotels, too, are feeling the pinch of Paris' summer slowdown, with occupancy rates expected to drop to 60% in early July, down some 10 points from 2023, according to Paris' tourism board. Airbnb also said "domestic interest" for stays during the Games has never been higher than in the weeks leading up to Paris Games. 'The Olympics is too broad'Last-minute travelers can still snag tickets to the Paris Games.
Persons: , John Grant, Grant, Rather, They've, OAG's John Grant, Jakub Porzycki, Airbnb Organizations: Olympic Games, France, Summer, Ryanair, Nurphoto, Olympic, Games, Notre Dame, CNBC, Paris Games, Paris, Financial Times Locations: Paris, London, Athens, Atlanta, Delta, Europe, North America, Oceania, Lille
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Olympic Games attract huge numbers, but they also repel many visitors tooMany people — including residents — avoided Paris in the build-up to the Olympic Games, despite prognostications that a travel boom was all but assured.
Persons: Organizations: Olympic Games Locations: Paris
With inflation finally beginning to cool of late, experts expect the Federal Reserve to begin trimming its benchmark interest rate. For savers, it means earning less on interest-paying vehicles such as bonds, cash accounts and certificates of deposit. Versions of all three vehicles currently offer guaranteed interest rates north of 5%. Why it makes sense to lock in higher rates nowFor years, when interest rates were near zero, it was hard to earn practically anything on a short-term bond or cash account. "I do think that leads to interest rate cuts in the U.S. [in the second half of 2024].
Persons: It's, Amy Arnott, we've, Arnott, Christopher R, Jackson, You've, That's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Morningstar Research Services, Treasury, UBS Wealth Management Locations: U.S
Apple’s AI: We’ve seen some of this before
  + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Samantha Murphy Kelly | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
On the other hand, however, other AI tools look familiar from what we’ve seen on the market. Ahead of the demo, the company emphasized that the majority of the new tools are powered by Apple Intelligence. If you want your email to sound more professional, or more friendly, Apple says its AI will take a stab. Siri’s AI flexApple really flexes its AI muscle, however, when it comes to Siri, which Apple says is taking a massive step forward by becoming more contextually relevant and more personal. In the demo, Apple showed how someone could upload a picture of vegetables at a farmer’s market and ask what they could make for dinner.
Persons: , they’re, , Siri, Craig Federighi, It’ll, they’ve, OpenAI, Apple, Genmoji, Roger Federer, he’s, it’s Organizations: CNN, Developers, Apple, “ Apple Intelligence, Apple Apple Intelligence, Google, Samsung, Catering, Apple Intelligence
Follow live coverage of the first day of the French Open 2024 today and game-by-game coverage of Stan Wawrinka vs Andy MurrayOnce upon a time, there was a tennis tournament called the French Open. When it was over, the greatest clay-court player of all time learned that he would have to play a rematch of the 2022 French Open semi-final, where Zverev tore ligaments in his ankle after pushing Nadal to his limits. They’re French Open finalists the past three years, and two of the best clay-court players in the world. She has won three of the past four French Open titles, and has become nearly unbeatable on clay. Ostapenko won the French Open in 2017 (Julien de Rosa/AFP via Getty Images)Ostapenko has beaten Swiatek all four times they have played, and won this tournament in 2017.
Persons: Stan Wawrinka, Andy Murray, Andres Gomez, Carlos Moya, Thomas Muster, Yevgeny Kafelnikov, Gaston Gaudio, Rafael Nadal, Nadal, Alexander Zverev, David Ramos, Novak Djokovic, Zverev, Rafael Nadal's, It’s, Carlos Alcaraz, Monte, Andrey Rublev, JJ Wolf, Next, hasn’t, Julian Finney, Pierre Hugues, Herbert, Luca Nardi, Alejandro Tabilo, Tomas Machac, Roland Garros, Chris Eubanks, there’s, Casper Ruud, They’re, Tsitsipas, Marton Fucsovics, Ruud, Jakub Mensik, Felipe Meligeni Alves, Nicolas Jarry, . Jarry, Corentin Moutet, Tabilo, Men’s, Ra, s 🇨🇿 Toma, Macha, Ben Shelto, 🇬 🇧Dan Evans, She has, Elen, Leo l ia Je, ike Nosk, ina, Ry, aki, Sara S orri, 🇰🇿 Yulia Putin, Cornet 🇷🇴 Sor, lina (15) Organizations: Nadal, Getty, Monte, adal Locations: German, Berlin, Monte Carlo, Barcelona, Rome, Madrid, Geneva, Italy, Chile, Czech, Ost
Several major gauges of fear in the market are reflecting increased alarm from investors. @VX.1 1Y mountain The VIX over the past year At the same time, CNN's Fear and Greed Index has tipped into "fear" territory this week. Rising oil prices have also weighed on the stock market, as commodity traders bought in on expectations of escalating conflict in the Middle East. But he said the key threat to this outlook is if the conflict in the Middle East further spirals. "But, the caveat is, if things really go sideways in the Middle East, that could change the calculus."
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alex McGrath, You've, Dow, Jason Heller, Heller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Treasury, Coastal Wealth Locations: East, Iran, Israel
A Trump reelection in November poses the biggest looming risk to the world economy, Nouriel Roubini warned. A second Trump presidency could end up making inflation and the national debt problem even worse, Roubini said. AdvertisementTrump being reelected might be the biggest looming threat to the global economy, according to "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini. Advertisement"With private and public debts high and rising, that would introduce the specter of a financial crisis," Roubini warned. In 2022, he warned markets of a coming stagflationary-debt crisis, which could spark a painful recession and 30% plunge in stocks.
Persons: Nouriel Roubini, Trump, Roubini, , Doom, Trump's, Powell Organizations: Trump, Service, Project Syndicate, Commerce, Bank of America, Bloomberg Locations: Ukraine, Gaza, China
What to watch in South Carolina’s Republican primary
  + stars: | 2024-02-24 | by ( Gregory Krieg | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
CNN —Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign has for weeks been looking ahead to the Republican primary in South Carolina, her home state where she was twice elected governor. The primary in South Carolina is open, meaning Democrats and independents can cast ballots in the GOP race. The former president does not need to open a larger tent in order to win in South Carolina. It’s obviously not insurmountable, and with 50 at stake in South Carolina, Haley could theoretically jump into the lead. South Carolina awards 29 of its delegates to the statewide winner and three apiece to the leader in each of its seven congressional districts.
Persons: Nikki Haley’s, Donald Trump, Trump, Haley, , Betsy Ankney, ” Haley, I’ll, “ I’m, Nikki Haley, , Nancy Mace, That’s, Mace, Michael Haley, Jake Tapper, South Carolina –, Harry Enten, It’s, it’s, CNN’s Ethan Cohen Organizations: CNN, Republican, Virgin Islands, Palmetto State, Trump, South Carolina National Guard, Confederate, statehouse, GOP, Granite, White, South Carolina Locations: South Carolina, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Virgin, Palmetto, “ South Carolina, Carolina, Coast, Michigan, Texas, Virginia, Super, Charleston, Richland, California
CNN —Punxsutawney Phil – the famous groundhog weather watcher – woke up and did not see his shadow Friday morning, calling for an early spring. Each February 2, on Groundhog Day, the members of the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club make the pilgrimage to Gobbler’s Knob – Phil’s official home. Phil and his friends in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, have been predicting the seasons since 1887, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 138th celebration of Groundhog Day in Punxsutawney, Pa., on Friday, Feb. 2, 2024. Given that, will Phil’s prediction of an early spring come true?
Persons: Phil –, , Phil, Nature, Groundhog, A.J, Dereume, Barry Reeger, Phil’s prognostications Organizations: CNN, National Centers for Environmental Locations: Punxsutawney , Pennsylvania, Punxsutawney, Pa
Byron Wien had joined Blackstone’s quarterly partners meeting last week. Photo: Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg NewsByron Wien, the longtime Blackstone executive known for his market prognostications and intense networking, died at 90 on Wednesday. Wien, who developed a wide following with his annual “Ten Surprises” list, was vice chairman of the private wealth group at Blackstone, which he joined 14 years ago. For decades, his lists detailed economic, political and financial market surprises he expected to see in the year ahead. He produced the 38th edition last January.
Persons: Byron Wien, Christopher Goodney Organizations: Bloomberg, Blackstone
New York CNN —In an unstable economic climate marked by geopolitical unrest, concerns about the Federal Reserve and soaring Treasury yields, investors are closely watching this week’s Big Tech earnings for clues about where the volatile stock market may head next. That means investors are watching their earnings particularly closely for prognostications about where the market is headed next. Big tech controls the market: Excluding Big Tech, the average earnings for S&P 500 companies would drop by 5% this quarter, according to Bloomberg Intelligence data. “Big Tech valuations pose risks for the broader markets, as Big Tech has contributed to almost all of the stock market’s year-to-date gains,” said David Bahnsen, chief investment officer of the Bahnsen Group. “This lack of market breadth suggests that investors are still highly prone to chasing momentum and getting overly excited about different market themes and stories, such as artificial intelligence.”It also suggests that there’s not a lot of room for any Big Tech earnings missteps.
Persons: , , David Bahnsen, there’s, Louis Navellier, Matt Egan, ” Brian Nelson, Samantha Murphy Kelly Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Microsoft, Google, Nvidia, Apple, Bloomberg Intelligence, Bahnsen, Navellier, Associates, Treasury Department, Gulf Cooperation, United, United Arab Emirates, Saudi, GCC, Treasury, Hamas, United Arab, Mac, IDC Locations: New York, States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Bahrain, United Arab, Israel, US, Riyadh, United States, Sudan, Algeria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Treasury’s
Wall Street prepares to dish economic dirt on US
  + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
They are also among the handful of banks which can buy Treasury debt straight from the central bank. That puts leaders like JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon at the center of the global financial spiderweb. To be sure, the financial statements that the banks will start to release on Friday will be backward-looking. Interest income will reflect the sharp and continued rise of central bank rates, which drag up the price banks must pay for customer deposits and what they charge for loans. It’s a big economic question, since plastic-related debt in the United States hit a record $1 trillion in August.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Marco Bello, Brian Moynihan’s, Jane Fraser, Wells Fargo, Dimon, Dean Athanasia, Banks, Wells, Peter Thal Larsen, Sharon Lam Organizations: JPMorgan Chase &, Reuters, REUTERS, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, of America, Treasury, Citi, Fraser, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Federal Reserve, Federal, Bank of, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics Bank, Alpha, Thomson Locations: Miami , Florida, U.S, Wells Fargo, Wells, United States
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineAs expected, the Federal Reserve declined to increase interest rates. In June, the Federal Open Market Committee forecast four rate cuts next year, totaling one percentage point. Despite the prognostications of robust economic growth, markets focused on the "higher rates for longer" part of the dot plot, seeing the glass as half empty.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Chip Somodevilla, That's, Powell, we'll, , Jeff Cox, Yun Li Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Federal, Fed, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Locations: Washington ,, U.S
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineAs expected, the Federal Reserve declined to increase interest rates. In June, the Federal Open Market Committee forecast four rate cuts next year, totaling one percentage point. Despite the prognostications of robust economic growth, markets focused on the "higher rates for longer" part of the dot plot, seeing the glass as half empty.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Chip Somodevilla, That's, Powell, we'll, , Jeff Cox, Yun Li Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Federal, Fed, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq Locations: Washington ,, U.S
FLORHAM PARK, N.J. (AP) — New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers says he'll use doubters as motivation in his rehabilitation from Achilles tendon surgery and indicates he'll play football again — perhaps even this season. Rodgers tore his left Achilles tendon on the fourth snap of his debut with his new team on Monday night, a 22-16 overtime victory over Buffalo. Political Cartoons View All 1163 Images“Definitely some odds stacked against me based on age, but I like it,” Rodgers said. A lot of sadness, a lot of tears, a lot of dark frustration and anger, all the gamut of emotions. “I’m very confident in Zach and I think he’s confident himself, which is the most important thing,” Rodgers said.
Persons: Aaron Rodgers, Achilles, , Rodgers, , ” Rodgers, Pat McAfee, Neal ElAttrache, “ Stack, , I’ve, ” Rodgers wouldn't, “ I’m, Kevin Garnett, Buffalo's Leonard Floyd, Randall Cobb —, ” Zach Wilson, Zach, He’s Organizations: — New York Jets, Buffalo, Jets, MetLife, Dallas Locations: FLORHAM, N.J, Los Angeles, LA, Green Bay, it’s, York , New Jersey, New York
The US and China are on a collision course that threatens the world economy, Nouriel Roubini warned. The "Dr. Doom" economist pointed to growing tensions between the US and China. "If they fail to achieve a new understanding on the issues driving their current confrontation, they will eventually collide." "That would lead inexorably to a military confrontation that would destroy the world economy, and which could even escalate to an unconventional (nuclear) conflict. AdvertisementAdvertisementRoubini has repeatedly warned of catastrophe for the global economy over the past year.
Persons: Nouriel Roubini, Doom, Roubini Organizations: Service, Syndicate, Taiwan Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, China's, Taiwan
US economic sanctions have spawned something of a global backlash, in the form of the dedollarization movement. This was anticipated as early as 2019, by an expert who warned the weaponization of the dollar could have serious consequences for the global economic system. Back in 2023, dedollarization is a thingFast forward to 2023, and some of the recent rumblings across the global currency and monetary landscape are strikingly in line with Sen's prognostications. All that could come at a huge cost to the global economy – and drive a "complete reversal of global economic integration," he wrote. The dollar's share of global reserves could slowly decline, but no alternatives exist that could completely displace the US currency, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said last month.
Persons: Julius Sen, Donald Trump, Sen, prognostications, Emmanuel Macron, Elon Musk, , optimists, Paul Krugman, Janet Yellen, Putin Organizations: London School of Economics, Service, UN, SWIFT, Allianz, WTO, FX Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Brazil, Iran, Tehran, Russia, Ukraine, India, Europe
Why It MattersGiven its size, JPMorgan is a proxy for the banking industry at large. Jamie Dimon, the bank’s chief executive, has deep political connections and his prognostications on the economy are scrutinized in some circles as closely as a central banker’s musings. On Friday, in a statement, Mr. Dimon said the U.S. economy was “resilient,” echoing language he has used repeatedly this year, but listed a litany of risks, including that consumers are burning through their cash buffers and that inflation remains high. BackgroundJPMorgan and Mr. Dimon have been all over the news this year, thanks to their prominent role as an attempted stabilizing force during the spring’s banking crisis that felled three smaller lenders. What’s NextThe next week or so will see a slew of other banks report their quarterly earnings.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Treasury, Western Alliance and Comerica Locations: U.S, Republic
Jamie Dimon, the bank’s chief executive, has deep political connections, and his prognostications on the economy are scrutinized in some circles as closely as a central banker’s musings. The U.S. economy “continues to perform better than many had expected,” said Charles W. Scharf, the bank’s chief executive. Unlike the other banks, Citigroup reported a fall in second-quarter profit, although the decline was not as severe as analysts had predicted. The U.S. government debt-limit standoff in April and May was also reflected in the banks’ results, with Citi citing anxiety during the negotiations as pushing investment-banking clients to the “sidelines” during the second quarter. What’s NextIn the next week or so, a slew of other banks will report quarterly earnings.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, didn’t, , Wells, , Charles W, Scharf, Jane Fraser, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Treasury, Citigroup, Citi, Western Alliance and Comerica Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Republic
More than 43 million Americans together owe $1.6 trillion in student loans. That additional load could weigh on consumer spending, and eventually increase delinquencies on other payments like credit cards and personal loans, strategists said. "We view the resumption of student loan debt payments as an incremental headwind for borrowers and consumer finance companies," BofA said. This, in other words, means the odds of the hotly-anticipated recession are about to go up as consumers divert cash back to student loan payments. Do you have student loans?
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