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Global police agency Interpol has released details of 46 cold cases involving women who were murdered or died in suspicious or unexplained circumstances, some of whose remains were found decades ago, according to a statement Tuesday. One of the cold cases relates to a body found in Saint-Denis, France. InterpolThe 46 cases have been added to the agency’s Identify Me appeal, launched in May 2023, which asked the public to help identify 22 deceased women. “Even the smallest piece of information can be vital in helping solve these cold cases. InterpolAs part of the campaign, Interpol has released parts of its Black Notice alerts, which are normally only available to police, for the first time.
Persons: Denis, Rita Roberts, Roberts, , ” Rita Roberts Organizations: CNN, Global, Interpol, Cardiff Locations: Germany, Saint, France, Premia de Mar, Spain, Cardiff, Wales, Antwerp, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy
For those looking to hedge against geopolitical risk, stocks are actually a pretty good way to do so, along with oil and gold. Bank of America looked at the best performers in the three and six months after major geopolitical events, including the Iraq War and Russia's invasion of Ukraine . The investment bank found that oil has historically been the best performer in the three months following major geopolitical events, generating a median return of 8.3%. On the other hand, gold is the best geopolitical hedge in the six months after such episodes. "[B]ad geopolitical events have not been bearish for risk assets in recent years, arguably the opposite," analyst Michael Hartnett wrote in a Thursday note.
Persons: , They've, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Locations: Iraq, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, Russia, China, Taiwan
As investors are navigating all the buzz about this week's potential rate cut and the upcoming presidential election, JPMorgan is forecasting a serious risk to long-term stock returns. The market appears to be too expensive relative to history, according to the firm, which is projecting a 5.7% annual return from the S & P 500 over the next decade. That is barely above half its post-World War II average, analyst Jan Loeys said in a recent note to clients. .SPX 5Y mountain S & P 500 performance over the past five years. The "Great Moderation" refers to the period from the mid-1980s to 2007 that saw low inflation and steady economic growth.
Persons: Jan Loeys, Loeys Organizations: JPMorgan
The rise in violent weather events over the past few years are driving a decline in real estate values in Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, according to a recent note from Capital Economics. Related storiesAccording to data from MSCI, insurance costs in Florida have more than doubled from less than 2% of income receivable in 2017 to 4.5% at the end of 2023. And those higher costs have ultimately helped drag down property values in impacted regions, especially in the multifamily sector. Capital EconomicsBut there has been a sign of hope in that the rate of growth in insurance costs appears to have peaked, according to Pattison. But she says the ongoing trend of violent weather could still exacerbate the issue in the future, further driving real estate values down in the most impacted regions.
Persons: Imogen Pattison, Beryl —, Karen Clark, they're, Pattison, CBRE Organizations: Service, Capital Economics, Business Locations: Texas , Florida, Louisiana, MSCI, Florida, multifamily, Florida , Texas
All flights for US airlines United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and American Airlines were grounded early on Friday, with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), citing communication issues. Passengers and airline pilots wait at Newark International Airport after United Airlines and other airlines grounded flights because of a worldwide tech outage. Jaipur International AirportJaipur International Airport has confirmed that “flights nationwide” have been affected by the outage. Incheon International Airport, SeoulSouth Korea’s Incheon International Airport said Air Premia, Eastar Jet and several other airlines had been affected. Taoyuan International Airport, TaiwanTaiwan’s Taoyuan International Airport said several airlines at the airport had been impacted.
Persons: it’s, Bing Guan, ” SunCountry, , Ezra Acayan, Andrew Gobeil, John F, Charlotte Douglas, Indira, Paris Charles de Gaulle, Charles de Gaulle Organizations: CNN, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, Federal Aviation Administration, FAA, United Airlines United Airlines, Delta Air Lines Delta Air Lines, Newark International Airport, Reuters, Air, Allegiant, Microsoft, . Frontier Airlines Frontier Airlines, Spirit Airlines, Porter Airlines, Toronto, AirAsia AirAsia, Ninoy Aquino, Getty Images, Getty Images Cebu Pacific Air Cebu Pacific Air, Qantas Qantas, Singapore Airlines Singapore Airlines, LATAM Airlines LATAM Airlines, Hartsfield, Jackson Atlanta International, Jackson Atlanta International Airport, Dallas Fort Worth International, Chicago O’Hare International, Chicago, International, Kennedy International Airport, Port, Charlotte Douglas International Airport, North Carolina Charlotte Douglas International Airport, Airport, Miami International Airport, US Customs, Border Patrol, , ” Dubai International, Dubai International, Indira Gandhi International Airport, International Airport, Seoul South Korea’s, Taoyuan International Airport, Jetstar, Hong Kong Express, Gatwick, Amsterdam, Schiphol ”, ” KLM Royal Dutch Airlines, Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport, Charles Locations: Delta, United, Las Vegas , Nevada, Caribbean, Latin America, Manila, Philippines, Getty Images Cebu, Australia, Singapore, Chilean, Dallas, New York, York, North Carolina, ” Dubai, Delhi, Jaipur, Seoul South, Taoyuan, Taiwan
Technology stocks have dominated the market for more than a decade. However, strong outperformance in tech may begin to spread to other sectors of the stock market, according to BofA. Here are four reasons tech stocks' dominance could end later this year, according to the bank. AdvertisementThe technology sector's dominance over the stock market could finally end later this year, according to Bank of America. Advertisement"As earnings accelerate outside of Tech, investors will likely become more price sensitive and seek out cheaper earnings growth," Subramanian said.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, COVID Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Tech, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank of, Technology, Communication Services, Nvidia, hyperscalers Microsoft, Rockwell Automation, ROK Locations: Tech, China, Japan
Stocks and the economy look strong but there are four factors that could pose a problem, Capital Economics said. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and high interest rates are big risks to markets. A depreciation of the Chinese yuan and soaring US debt are also the two factors investors need to watch. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Thirdly, with the rising value of the Chinese yuan, any depreciation could trigger currency market volatility elsewhere.
Persons: , Ruben Gargallo Abargues, Jonas Goltermann, Wednesday's, Goltermann, Bill Gross Organizations: Economics, Service, Capital Economics, Brent Locations: Israel, Treasuries
The MSCI All Country World Index ETF (ACWI) hit an all-time high last week. ACWI 5Y mountain iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI) This index would appear to give investors diversified exposure to stock markets around the globe. It includes developing countries, unlike the MSCI World Index, which is tracked by the ETF 'URTH.' Consequently, the US stock market comprises almost 71% of the URTH ETF and nearly 64% of the ACWI ETF. This is illustrated by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index which can be traded with the iShares ETF, 'EEM.'
Persons: , ACWI, Rob Reiner, Miracle Max, Billy Crystal, EEM Organizations: Trust Locations: URTH, U.S
A bullish options bet on a rallying fintech into earnings
  + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Nevertheless, we're going to take advantage of lower- than-average longer-dated options premiums in an e-commerce payment services company to frame a modestly bullish bet going into earnings. Companies might beat earnings expectations but still see their stock price fall due to other factors like future earnings guidance, revenue quality, or broader market conditions. Guidance: Companies often provide forward-looking statements or guidance about future earnings and performance during their earnings calls, which can have an immediate and unpredictable impact on their stock price. Analyst expectations: The market's reaction can be more about how the actual earnings compare to analyst expectations rather than the earnings themselves. In some cases though, the options market is not anticipating particularly sharp moves, and this may present an opportunity.
Persons: we're, Fiserv Locations: United States
I'll describe how options traders will bet the bottom is in and the levels they may find attractive to do so. Tesla's margins of nearly 11% are twice those of the 2 biggest U.S. automakers, but a bear will point out that Porsche margins are 13%. Even still, it's not clear that the legacy automakers can compete long term with Tesla or China's BYD. Apple, Amazon, Costco, Lululemon, Nike, Yeti and Tesla are, if the actual dollars spent are measured, high on this list. TSLA YTD mountain Tesla YTD Sometimes, whether it's a fast car, or a fast-moving stock, the best thing to do is wait.
Persons: Gene Munster, it's, Tesla, Tesla's, it's Ford Organizations: Deepwater Management, Ford, GM, Toyota, U.S, Apple, Costco, Lululemon, Nike, Holly Locations:
Mike Segar | ReutersMarkets are "fairly complacent" about the risks of a second Donald Trump presidency, which could trigger a "tantrum" in long-duration bond markets, according to Guillermo Felices, principal and global investment strategist at PGIM. watch nowSome analysts are also looking ahead through a fiscal and geopolitical lens to November's U.S. presidential election and beyond. 'Fiscal risk' at a time of high deficit The crucial point, Felices acknowledged, is America's deteriorating fiscal position in recent decades. "The market is not really focusing too much on the potential upside risks to yields that are associated with this potential repricing of term premia. [Having] fiscal risks with the sort of deficit that the U.S. is running is a really, really important one that the market will have to come to terms with again."
Persons: Donald Trump, Mike Segar, Guillermo Felices, Felices, Trump, Fitch Organizations: U.S, Republican, New, Reuters, Dow Jones Industrial, Federal, Fed, CNBC, Trump, Bank of England Locations: New Hampshire, Rochester , New Hampshire, U.S
In Hungary, central bank governor Gyorgy Matolcsy is under pressure from Viktor Orban's government to cut rates further ahead of local and European Parliament elections next year. Reuters GraphicsTANGIBLE BENEFITSA 2021 World Bank survey found that political meddling in central bank policy led to sustained periods of high inflation in emerging market economies such as Turkey and Argentina. "Attempts to bring the president of the NBP before the State Tribunal can be directly interpreted as an attack on the independence of the central bank," the spokesman said. How those premia evolve will depend partly on how politics in Poland and Hungary is perceived by investors to influence the central banks in the months to come. "Everything else being equal, the less independent the central bank, the more real yield you need to have to be compensated for the risk," said Arif Joshi at Lazard Asset Management.
Persons: Adam Glapinski, Gyorgy Matolcsy, Viktor Orban's, Donald Tusk's, Karen Vartapetov, Paul Gamble, Glapinski's, Glapinski, Marta Kightley, Orban, Peter Virovacz, Arif Joshi, Karol Badohal, Gergely, Mark John, Toby Chopra Organizations: WARSAW, Law and Justice, U.S . Federal Reserve, EU, Sovereign, Investor, Emerging, Fitch, Local, ING, Lazard Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Hungarian, Poland, Hungary, BUDAPEST, Europe, Turkey, Argentina, WARSAW
Markets may be failing to fully price in risks from geopolitics and the economic outlook — and the European Central Bank is monitoring this as a potential threat to financial stability, the group's vice-president said Wednesday. He added, "This is one of the main elements that we believe now could produce volatility in the financial landscape." He was discussing the release of the central bank's Financial Stability Review for November, which tackles the challenges of a "soft landing" that brings down inflation without significant economic damage. However, it says risks to financial stability remain "elevated," as attention is now on the knock-on effects of tight financial and credit conditions on borrowers, and a correction in real estate markets. Nevertheless, because of base effects we will have some increase in inflation over the next months," de Guindos said.
Persons: Luis de Guindos, CNBC's Annette Weisbach, de Guindos Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB
Morning Bid: AI buzzes but market shrugs at Nvidia beat
  + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange shortly before the closing bell as the market takes a significant dip in New York, U.S., February 25, 2020. Remarkably, Nvidia managed to vault the sky-high bar for quarterly earnings, revenue and projections yet again in its latest update overnight. Bond volatility (.MOVE) has also fallen to two-month lows, while currency market 'vol' (.DBCVIX) is plumbing 20-month lows. CONCERN OVER HOME SALES, HOLIDAY SEASON SALESNews of a drop in U.S. existing home sales last month to a 13-year low was perhaps as important as the Fed minutes - as was warnings from more major U.S. retailers, this time Best Buy and Nordstrom, about sticky holiday season sales and the need for discounting. The dollar (.DXY) was a touch higher on Wednesday, meantime, with most overseas stock markets firmer too.
Persons: Lucas Jackson, Mike Dolan, thrall, OpenAI, Sam Altman, Changpeng Zhao, October's, Jeremy Hunt's, underperformed, Jeremy Hunt, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Nvidia, Federal, Nordstrom, University of Michigan, Bank of Canada, Treasury, Deere, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Gaza, China, yearend, York, Beijing
[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. Closely watched U.S. treasury yields slipped after auction, while global oil futures gained $2 on the prospect of supply cuts. Europe's benchmark STOXX index (.STOXX) inched up 0.1%, with energy stocks (.SXEP) leading gains. The healthcare sector (.SXDP) fell after shares in Bayer (BAYGn.DE) dropped to their lowest in 14 years. The dollar index fell to 103.26, its weakest since the start of September, as investors appeared to solidify bets that the Fed could start cutting interest rates next year.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby, Krosby, Ricardo Evangelista, Goldman Sachs, Moody's, Brent, Chris Prentice, Wayne Cole, Lawrence White, Lincoln, Susan Fenton, Will Dunham, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, U.S, Bayer, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nikkei, Trading, LPL, Tech, European Central Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SYDNEY, Thursday's U.S, United States, Europe, Italy, New York, Sydney, London
[1/3] Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. The MSCI World Equity Index (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.38% by 10:37 a.m. EST (1537 GMT) and Europe's benchmark STOXX index (.STOXX) rose 0.08%. The tech-heavy index (.IXIC) gained 0.44% to 14,187.16, as the Dow Jones (.DJI) rose 0.25% to 35,035.33 and the S&P 500 index (.SPX) gained 0.27% to 4,526.14. The dollar index fell to 103.46, its weakest level since the start of September, as investors appeared to solidify bets that the Fed could start cutting rates next year. "Dovish minutes could trigger some downside risk for the dollar," Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Israel, Ricardo Evangelista, Goldman Sachs, Moody's, Brent, Chris Prentice, Wayne Cole, Lawrence White, Lincoln, Susan Fenton, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nvidia, Global, U.S, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Nikkei, Hamas, Tech, Treasury, European Central Bank, NAB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SYDNEY, United States, Gaza, Europe, Italy, New York, Sydney, London
Both numbers topped estimates, and still the stock fell after hours, trading below $240 a share as of this writing. At nearly 9 times revenues and 45 times forward earnings estimates, PANW is not a cheap stock, moreover it is still up sharply on the year, and outperforming considerably. Stock replacement strategy One possibility is a stock replacement, selling one's stock holding and replacing that exposure with options. By using a call spread one can maintain some exposure to the upside in the event the stock bounces back. PANW YTD mountain Palo Alto Networks (PANW) CSCO on the other hand, by some measures at least, is a cheap stock, at just 13 times earnings.
Persons: PANW, we've, CSCO, Chuck Robbins, Scott Herren, ANET Organizations: Palo Alto Networks, Cisco, Verizon, Mobile, Comcast, Arista Networks, Broadcom, Flex, Nvidia, CNBC Locations: Palo
IMF approves $35 bln credit line for Mexico
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
[1/3] Employees work at a stall in an outdoor market dedicated to the sale of fruits and vegetables, in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. REUTERS/Jose Luis Gonzalez/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsMEXICO CITY, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund's executive board has approved a two-year, $35 billion flexible credit line for Mexico, it said in a statement on Thursday, noting the Latin American country's economy is undergoing a broad-based expansion. This is Mexico's tenth flexible credit line arrangement since 2009, and the country has reduced amounts of the lines granted in recent years, the IMF said. In 2017, the IMF granted Mexico a credit line worth around $88 billion, which by 2021 was reduced to $50 billion. Authorities will reassess the external risk outlook and their implications on access under the agreement in November 2024, the IMF added.
Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Gita Gopinath, Gopinath, Kylie Madry, Valentine Hilaire, Nick Zieminski Organizations: REUTERS, MEXICO CITY, Monetary Fund's, IMF, Thomson Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, MEXICO
LONDON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Analysts at investment bank UBS have predicted that emerging market (EM) assets are likely to have a difficult start to 2024 before picking up and finishing the year with respectable gains. The Switzerland-based bank's outlook forecast that EM fixed income would return 8-10% next year, EM equities 6-8% and 1-3% for spot FX gains, with "most returns backloaded". "With risk premia now highly compressed, we think even a mild U.S. recession can first see EM assets pull back. So be careful what you wish for," the bank's report said. Reporting by Marc Jones, Editing by Louise HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Marc Jones, Louise Heavens Organizations: UBS, FX, Thomson Locations: Switzerland
Fed meetings may not be the biggest mover of the bond market, Societe Generale said. AdvertisementAdvertisementDespite US bond yields plunging after Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, central bankers may not be moving the market as much as other factors, according to Societe Generale. Another factor elbowing yields higher is the Bank of Japan, according to Edwards. AdvertisementAdvertisementThis week, the BoJ further loosened its grip on bond yields, marking another step back from its so-called yield curve control policy meant to stimulate the economy by keeping interest rates low. "That pressure intensified at exactly the same time as it became apparent just how gargantuan US Treasury issuance had become," he added.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Fedspeak, Edwards Organizations: Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Service, Reserve, Treasury, Treasury Department
And some banks think the Bank of England may be the latest to paper over the QT cracks as soon as this week. Already, there's been some awkward shuffling of feet around a process that was meant to be just balance sheet plumbing. The Federal Reserve may be further away from dealing with the QT issue head on. Deutsche Bank's UK strategists agree and think "the bar for a shift in QT policy is lower heading into yearend." Deutsche argues the BoE could either skew gilt sales shorter or agree to sell evenly based on current market valuations.
Persons: there's, BOE, BoE, BofA, Deutsche, Mike Dolan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal, . Treasury, Bank, Treasury, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, yearend
CNN —You’ve seen them on TikTok and on Instagram: people flying on the new generation of long-haul, low-cost airlines where the fares sound too good to be true. By and large, long-haul, low-cost airlines focus on four specific markets: transatlantic, transpacific, southeast Asia and Australia. With a home base at Narita international airport, Zipair Tokyo is Japan Airlines' low-cost arm. Yoshio Tsunoda/AFLO/ShutterstockHome base: Tokyo (Narita, the airport an hour away from the city)Notable routes: Honolulu, LA, SF, San Jose (CA)Flies: Boeing 787sWhat you need to know: This is Japan Airlines’ low-cost arm. Scoot is Singapore Airlines' low-cost arm.
Persons: CNN — You’ve, ” you’ll, Markus Mainka, Pawel Gradek, Yoshio Tsunoda, Edgar Su, Organizations: CNN, Boeing, Airbus, That’s, AirAsia X, Buenos Aires, British Airways, Aer Lingus, Atlantic, Atlantic Airways, Air Premia, Premia, Narita, Japan Airlines, Japan Airlines ’, Singapore Airlines, Reuters, Singapore Airlines ’, Qantas, Getty, Jetstar, London, AirAsia Locations: New York, Paris, Asia, Australia, Paris Orly, Orly, LA, Miami, NY, France, Barcelona, Boston, Buenos, Santiago de Chile, IAG, Iberia, Aer, Oslo, London, Gatwick, Berlin, Rome, Chicago, Orlando, Seoul, Incheon, Honolulu , LA, Newark, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Japan, Narita, Jose, Scoot, Singapore, Athens, New Zealand, Southeast Asia, AFP, Honolulu, Kuala Lumpur
Speaking at this week's global finance meeting in Riyadh, HSBC boss Noel Quinn warned of a potential "tipping point on fiscal deficits" for a number of countries across the world. And some analysts fear the uncertainty of next year's funding crush is filtering out the steepening yield curve via the term premium. Term premium at highest in 8 yearsReuters GraphicsCBO long-term US debt and deficit projections'DOOM LOOP'? That's spooky enough, until you start to factor in the recent yield spike and or a return of the term premium to 60-year averages of 150 bp. Tipping point or not, there's a danger the market is starting crystallise the problem it fears most.
Persons: Sukree, Noel Quinn, it's, that's, Stephen Jen, Jen, Goldman Sachs, Jeremy Hunt, Mike Dolan Organizations: HSBC, New York Fed, Federal Reserve, Fed, JPMorgan, Treasury, CBO, Moody's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Kasikornbank, Bangkok, Riyadh, U.S, Washington, Europe, Italy
Big Tech earnings This week is less about reading between the lines/through results, and contextualizing management comments, but rather it's about the market itself. AI - AI - AI! The options market is implying an earnings related move of 4.7%. Our options market sentiment score for GOOG/GOOGL is 80th percentile - which one may think of like a score/grade, so a B- in terms of options sentiment. Call open interest is 15% higher than put open interest, our options market sentiment score is 83% so B/B- territory.
Persons: ChatGPT, Bing, it's, AMZN, Mark Zuckerberg's, Zuckerberg, one's Organizations: Cambridge, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, BlackRock, Goldman, Equity, Big Tech, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Inc, Investors, YouTube, Amazon, Google, Gaming, Activision, Logistics, Federal Express, CNBC, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Visa, Mastercard, Merck, Co Locations: financials, Wells Fargo
Morning Bid: Stocks struggle as yields rise, tech earnings loom
  + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It failed to impress bond markets, however, as U.S. 10-year yields crept back up to 4.967% having surged almost 30 basis points last week alone. The scale of U.S. borrowing is also likely a concern given Washington last week reported a $1.695 trillion budget deficit for fiscal 2023, fully 23% higher than the prior year and above all pre-pandemic shortfalls. Higher bond yields are also testing valuations for equities and promise pain for any company that misses the market's earnings expectations this week. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:- No major data scheduledEditing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Wayne Cole, It's, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Western Alliance, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Israel, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Microsoft, Intel, IBM, General Motors, General Electric, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wayne, Asia, Israel, Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Britain, Washington, Japan
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