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☆ Democrats learned the wrong lessons from the last midterms: From the Politics Desk
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( The Politics Desk | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +12 min

In today’s edition, chief political analyst Chuck Todd explains why the results of the 2022 midterm elections were a mirage for the Democrats . Democrats did well in the 2022 midterms despite Biden, not because of him or his pro-democracy messaging. But Democrats managed to hold onto Senate seats in two states Trump carried, Michigan and Wisconsin. In the House, Republicans had a 212-201 lead, with 22 races yet to be called as of Friday afternoon. Read more →Trump won Nevada, NBC News projects — the first time a Republican presidential candidate has done so since 2004.

Persons: Chuck Todd, Kristen Welker, Donald Trump, Adam Edelman, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Clinton, Obama, Biden, ’ “, Court’s Dobbs, Dobbs, Trump, Chuck →, “, …, It’s, ” Trump, ”, I’m, ‘, We’re, Donald Trump’s, Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, Illinoisans, Kathy Hochul, Read, abi Organizations: NBC, White House, Capitol, Democratic, GOP, Democrats, Trump, Black, Asian, Senate, Republicans, NBC News, Nevada Senate, House, Gov, ”, New York Gov, Initiative Locations: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona , Nevada , Michigan, Wisconsin, West Virginia , Montana and Ohio, Michigan, Arizona , Pennsylvania, Nevada, South America, In California, California, ” Illinois

☆ Chuck Todd: This Democratic defeat — and the rise of Trump 2.0 — was a decade in the making
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Chuck-Todd-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Chuck Todd | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +21 min

The reality is that both parties learn lessons from losing elections that apply only in the short term — say, from one presidential election to the next midterm or from one midterm to the next presidential election. Not anymore — it’s why Democrats usually overperform in special elections, with more devoted “every election” voters right now. Meanwhile, in the non-battlegrounds, which were more affected by the basic “mood music” of the election, Democrats were shellacked. The seeds of discontent with this version of the Democratic Party can be traced back a decade to Obama’s decision to anoint Hillary Clinton as his successor. Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., at the CNN Democratic presidential primary debate in New York City on April 14, 2016.

Persons: inbox, It’s, Donald Trump, Devin Yalkin, doesn’t, Karl Rove, Barack Obama, Joe Biden’s, Biden, Bill Clinton, Obama, Clinton, Harris, Court's Dobbs, Dobbs, Trump, I’m, Kamala Harris, Morry Gash, hadn't, misfired, Deb Fischer, Dan Osborn, Osborn, Josh Shapiro, wasn’t, Harris wouldn’t, They’ve, Franklin D, Roosevelt, John F, Kennedy, Lyndon B, Johnson, Hillary Clinton, he’d, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Justin Sullivan, Democratic Party didn’t, Sanders, Bernie Bros, Joe Rogan, —, didn’t, nitpick, ”, Bob Dole, Al Gore, John Kerry, John McCain, Mitt Romney, What's, Elon, MAGA, Michael Dukakis Organizations: NBC, Trump, Democratic, Democratic Party, Biden, GOP, Democrats, Social Security, Senate, Electoral, Massachusetts Democrat, San, San Francisco Democrat, CNN Democratic, Clinton, Obama, Trump bros Locations: West Palm Beach, Fla, Plenty, “, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona , Nevada , Michigan, Wisconsin, Madison, Wis, America, Texas, Massachusetts, San Francisco, New York City, Trump, Iowa, Clinton

The chart below shows the difference between Trump’s vote percentage in 2020 and his percentage in 2024 in Pennsylvania precincts. Dots above the dotted black line are precincts where Trump out-performed his vote percentage four years ago. Most precincts in Pennsylvania shifted toward Trump, with the biggest shifts coming in areas where he won 20% to 30% of the vote in 2020. While Harris and Biden both won this region comfortably, Harris’ vote margin was nearly 120,000 votes smaller than Biden’s. The map on the left shows Philadelphia precincts according to who won that precinct.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, Trump’s overperformance, Harris, Harris ’, Biden Organizations: NBC, Republicans, Democrats, Trump Locations: Pennsylvania, Trump, Philadelphia, Harris, That’s, Center City

michelle goldbergI mean, I’m a huge Walz fan, and I was worried. ross douthatSo, yeah, I mean, I’m having made the case that this pick makes sense in vibes terms. michelle goldbergYeah, I don’t think that he necessarily overperforms among conservative voters strictly defined. You don’t think that there’s a part of the country that just finds joy like a really refreshing change? I’m going there.

Persons: ross douthat I’ve, Bon Iver, Taylor Swift, I’ve, michelle cottle Oh, ross douthat, michelle goldberg, michelle cottle, Vance, I’m Michelle Cottle, Ross Douthat, Ross, Michelle Goldberg, Michelle, Harris, Kamala — Kamala — michelle goldberg Kamala, nomenon, Kamala, Chappell Roan, I’m, Frenchman, we’ll, Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, Josh Shapiro, it’s, Donald, JD Vance, Donald Trump, Biden, Walz, Sarah Longwell, Shapiro, Trump, ross douthat Let’s, It’s, that’s, John Fetterman, we’ve, Michelle Cottle, relatability, Jared Golden, Joe Manchin, Mary Peltola, —, Bernie, you’ve, who’s, Josh Shapiro doesn’t, don’t, you’re, Shapiro wasn’t, JB Pritzker, The New York Times ”, here’s Shapiro, Netanyahu, Donald Trump’s, John Kerry, — ross douthat, “, we’re, Bone, michelle goldberg Ross, George Floyd’s, there’s, George Floyd, That’s, It’s Trump, michelle cottle Ross, Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, ross, hadn’t, “ Trump, MAGA, michelle cottle It’s, he’s, she’s, Tucker Carlson, — michelle cottle, ross douthat —, doesn’t, chameleons, He’s, McKay Coppins, it’s Kamala, Sarah Palin’s, John McCain, Mike Pence, Dick Cheney, George W, ”, michelle cottle “ Sunny, ” ross douthat, Rashida Jones, — ross, ” michelle goldberg, michelle cottle Juicy, “ Severance, michelle cottle Nice Organizations: “ New York, Minnesota, Twitter, Republican, Trump, Democratic, America, Democratic Party, Dartmouth, Biden, The New York Times, Bone Spurs, Vance, Republicans, Air Force, Atlantic, Democrat Locations: Tay, “, Pennsylvania, Brooklyn , New York, Wisconsin, San Francisco, relatability, America, Maine, Alaska, California, Israel, Palestine, Minnesota, Italy, Minneapolis, Afghanistan, Ukraine, Trump, United States, Michelle, Kyoto, Japan

☆ Voyager Ventures backs climate tech startups. It just raised its second $100 million fund.
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-07 | by ( Tasmin Lockwood | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Read previewClimate tech VC firm Voyager Ventures has raised another fund hot on the heels of its first, bringing its assets under management to $200 million. The new fund can invest alongside or after Voyager Fund I and independently where it has developed competitive access. AdvertisementThe fund hit final close in May 2023, which was previously undisclosed, just 15 months after closing its first fund. It is also eyeing the second edition of the earlier-stage Voyager Fund, which Peterson and Sclarsic will start raising this year. Voyager Ventures currently has 19 portfolio companies across the two funds.

Persons: —, Sierra Peterson, Sarah Sclarsic, Peterson, Sclarsic Organizations: Service, Voyager Ventures, Business, Voyager, Northwestern University, Novo Holdings Locations: San Francisco and New York, North America, Europe

☆ Why is Trump almost certain to romp in Iowa? Compared to 2016, first-time caucusgoers and evangelicals are giving him huge leads over his GOP rivals.
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The final pre-caucus NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll shows Trump ahead of Haley 48%-20%. AdvertisementTrump is in the best position he's ever been in for a contested GOP caucus in Iowa. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won the Iowa GOP caucuses in 2016. And polling showed that evangelicals comprised roughly 64% of the GOP caucus electorate that year. The former president won first-time GOP caucusgoers in 2016, earning 30% of their vote compared to Cruz's 23% support.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Haley, —, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Texas Sen, Ted Cruz, Charlie Neibergall, Jeb Bush, Cruz, Florida Sen, Marco Rubio, Bush, Rubio, DeSantis, haven't Organizations: NBC, Des Moines Register, Service, GOP, Florida Gov, Trump, Iowa GOP, AP, Texas, Iowa Locations: Iowa, Florida, Texas

☆ Iowa’s most important poll has set the expectations for the GOP caucuses
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-13 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The final poll from Iowa’s premier pollster, Ann Selzer, has Trump at 48% followed by former South Carolina Gov. If the final outcome Monday night mirrors the poll, Trump will have won the highest Iowa GOP caucus vote share for a non-incumbent ever. A Haley win in the first primary race in the nation would indicate that Trump is not invincible. He did more than 5 points better than where his final Iowa poll had him. (His 28-point margin over Bradley was the same as the final poll found, as both Bradley and Gore won some undecided voters.)

Persons: Donald Trump, Ann Selzer, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Trump, –, They’re, Haley, Chris Christie –, George W, Bush, didn’t, Steve Forbes, John McCain, Patrick Buchanan, Bob Dole, Buchanan, McCain, Gary Hart, Walter Mondale, Hart, Haley isn’t, DeSantis, Al Gore, Gore, Bill Bradley, Bradley, Trump . Gore, Dole Organizations: CNN, Trump, South Carolina Gov, Florida Gov, Iowa GOP, Granite State, New, New Jersey Gov, University of New, Dole, Democratic, Republican, Trump . Locations: Iowa, New Hampshire, Granite, New Jersey, University of New Hampshire, Hampshire, Granite State, Trump, South Carolina, Florida

☆ Analysis: Nikki Haley has a plausible path to the Republican nomination
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-03 | by ( Harry Enten | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

No one behind in the national polls by as much as Haley at this point in the primary calendar has ever ended up winning the nomination. A late October Des Moines Register poll had Trump at 43% to Haley and DeSantis each at 16% in Iowa. They both went on to win Iowa. Haley, however, doesn’t need to win Iowa to secure the GOP nomination. Hart’s overperformance in Iowa was a big reason he went to win the New Hampshire primary in 1984.

Persons: CNN — We’ve, Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Haley, She’s, Ron DeSantis, Trump, DeSantis, It’s, Republican George H.W, Republican George H.W . Bush, Dick Gephardt, Gary Hart, Walter Mondale, Hart’s, Republican Pat Buchanan, Hart, it’s, Chris Christie, Christie, Mondale, Jesse Jackson, John Glenn, George McGovern –, Trump’s Organizations: CNN, Republican, South, Trump, Florida Gov, Des Moines Register, Iowa, GOP, Hawkeye State, Granite State, New, University of New, Winthrop University Locations: South Carolina, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, That’s, Republican George H.W ., Hampshire, Granite, Granite State, University of New Hampshire, New Jersey, Haley’s

☆ Opinion | Should Joe Manchin Run for President?
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( Ross Douthat | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

In the emotional life of the liberal mediasphere, there was so little space between the release of the New York Times/Siena poll showing President Biden losing to Donald Trump handily across a range of swing states (doom! that one of the striking features of the polling passed with relatively little comment. This was the remarkably strong showing for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s independent candidacy. When added to the swing-state polls, Kennedy claimed 24 percent of registered voters against 35 percent for Trump and 33 percent for Biden. First, for showing Kennedy drawing close to equally from both likely nominees rather than obviously spoiling the race for one or the other.

Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Kennedy, Perot’s Organizations: New York Times, Democratic, Trump, Biden Locations: Siena

☆ Opinion | Joe Biden Is in Trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( John Della Volpe | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

President Biden is offering fulsome support to Israel, though with more words of caution recently. If that continues, the winning Biden 2020 coalition is at greater risk of fracturing — and in the process, making Donald Trump’s return to the White House more likely. Many young voters have been reluctant to back Mr. Biden for some time now, despite record-setting levels of support from Gen Zers and millennials in 2020. The latest battleground state polls by The New York Times and Siena College show Mr. Biden holding a one-point lead over Mr. Trump among registered voters under 30 and a six-point lead among likely voters in the same age category. In 2020, exit polls showed Mr. Biden winning the youth vote cohort, 60 to 36 percent.

Persons: Biden, —, Israel bombards Gazans, Donald Trump’s, Mr, Gen Zers, Trump Organizations: Democratic, Biden, The New York Times, Siena College, Mr Locations: Israel, Gaza, overperformance, United States

☆ Market reactions to Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

"It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2% goal, and we will do so," Powell said. "August has been a difficult month for the market, so it is hungry for news that will help reverse the trend. Investors are hanging on to every word, but the main takeaway is that Powell signaled that the Fed would raise rates if needed. Rather than last year's short but brutal speech, Powell opted for a longer and calmer speech. KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CORPAY, TORONTO"On balance, this is a modestly less hawkish speech than markets had feared.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, CHRISTOPHER HODGE, MICHAEL GREEN, ANDRE BAKHOS, CARSTEN BRZESKI, Ann Saphir, Christine, Lagarde, ” JOSEPH LAVORGNA, “, ” STUART COLE, ” QUINCY KROSBY, there's, DAVID WAGNER, Jackson, BRIAN JACOBSEN, patting, KARL SCHAMOTTA, Bernanke, Draghi Organizations: U.S . Federal, Federal, NFP, Fed, ING, Kansas City, REUTERS, CHIEF, CPI, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: U.S, JERSEY, FRANKFURT, Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, NIKKO, LONDON, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA, CINCINNATI , OHIO, WISCONSIN, TORONTO

☆ UniCredit finds costly fix for faulty CEO pay
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

UniCredit shares are up 75% over the last twelve months, against 22% for the STOXX Europe 600 Banks Index. To give Orcel an incentive to beat his goals again, and to keep the pay-conscious dealmaker happy, UniCredit tweaked the package. It hiked his fixed pay to 3.25 million euros but changed the way the bonus will be allocated. If Orcel hits new and more challenging targets he will earn a bonus of 4.25 million euros, lower than last year’s payout, paid all in stock. But if he overshoots again, he could get up to 9.75 million euros.

☆ Outgoing New York Rep. Kathleen Rice says she warned Democratic leaders that the party would 'lose' Long Island in the midterms
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( John L. Dorman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Rep. Kathleen Rice said she warned Democratic leaders of electoral losses on Long Island before the midterms. While former President Donald Trump lost New York State resoundingly in both 2016 and 2020, he won Suffolk each time. I said [to party leaders], 'You guys, don't understand, we're gonna lose Long Island. "When we had elections in November of 2021, every single Democrat on Long Island lost. However, the midterms proved that while the Republican brand on Long Island may have faltered in the 1990s and 2000s, that is certainly not the case today.

He got away with it because in a 50-50 Senate, Manchin had a ton of leverage and could force Senate Democratic leaders to make numerous concessions or else get nothing passed. Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images fileA 51-49 Senate majority doesn’t completely quell Democratic headaches over having to corral their own. Like Manchin, Sen. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona has bucked her Democratic colleagues. In a 51-49 Senate, Democrats also will have unilateral power to issue subpoenas. This leaves Senate Democrats in a much rosier position concerning chickens and just about everything else.

☆ Rep. Zeldin taking supporters’ calls about running for RNC chair, longtime adviser says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Https | Media-Cldnry.S-Nbcnews.Com Image Upload Newscms Jonathan-Allen-Circle-Byline-Template.Jpg | Jonathan Allen | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +2 min

“He has received calls from around the country,” John Brabender said Sunday. Under the party’s rules, the top two posts must be held by one man and one woman. Zeldin, a four-term House member from Long Island, lost to Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul by 53% to 47% — in a state where Trump lost by 22 percentage points in 2020. Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., praised Zeldin on CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday, although did not address a possible RNC bid.

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