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For one, the market was already in a sturdy uptrend, the S & P ahead by 20% in 2024 by October. Now, the S & P is up 44% in the past 18 months and the P/E is above 22 on more elevated margins. Here's the S & P 500 Value vs Growth relationship since 2014. His call is for investors to fade any near-term rally that takes the S & P above his 6100 "bull case" target for year end. For sure, the S & P 500 is by some measures running a bit hot, pushing above the top end of its two-year bull-market path.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jay Powell, Trump, Cyclicals, Russell, YTD, Doug Ramsey, we're, reflating, Scott Chronert, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Republican, Trump Trade, Federal, Treasury, financials, Nasdaq, Group, Investment, Trump, Russell, Citi Locations: upending Washington, U.S, year's
Donald Trump's second presidency could help supercharge small cap stocks further, according to Fundstrat managing partner and head of research Tom Lee. "Since 1987 small caps traded on a median price-to-earnings [ratio] at a premium basis to the S & P 500, and the S & P 500 is at 17 times. I think small caps could over the next couple of years outperform by more than 100%," Lee told CNBC's " Squawk Box " on Friday. Lee is also bullish on equities more broadly, and doesn't limit his optimistic outlook to only small caps. He also forecast the S & P 500 could break above 6,000 before the end of the year and top 6,700 in 2025.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Russell, Stocks, Trump's, haven't, FundStrat Organizations: Trump, U.S, Granny Shots, Tesla, Oracle
The Wall Streeters whispering in Trump's ear
  + stars: | 2024-11-08 | by ( Alice Tecotzky | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +1 min
Trump's transition team is turning to Wall Street titans for advice on key economic appointments. Howard Lutnick, transition team co-chair and bank CEO, is turning to friends for advice. Wall Street is eager to have its opinion heard. AdvertisementTrump's transition team did not respond to Business Insider's request for comment. Here are some of the key players with Wall Street connections now offering advice to the Trump administration:
Persons: Howard Lutnick, Scott Bessent, Gary Cohn, John Paulson, , Donald Trump, Cantor Fitzgerald, Lutnick, Trump Organizations: Wall Street titans, Service, Wall Street, Wall Locations: New York
It's still uncertain what Donald Trump's second presidency will look like, but his first administration was highly responsive to business issues with a set way of operating, top German business executive Joe Kaeser told CNBC. "If I personally, for my company at the time, had an issue to resolve, his administration was extremely receptive," the chairman of the supervisory board of Siemens Energy said in an interview with CNBC's Annette Weisbach Thursday. Kaeser was Siemens' CEO throughout President-elect Trump's first term. Trump did "a lot of things which helped the economy" during his first four years in office, Kaeser said, noting that he believed the president-elect's tax cuts at the time were a positive. One study done at the time, however, showed that the Trump tax cuts, which were implemented in 2017, only had a limited contribution to the strong U.S. growth the following year.
Persons: It's, Donald Trump's, Joe Kaeser, CNBC's Annette Weisbach, Kaeser, Trump's, Trump Organizations: CNBC, Siemens Energy, Siemens, Trump Locations: New York
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Treasury Secretary Mnuchin: Tariffs need to be used to get counterparties back to the tableSteven Mnuchin, Liberty Strategic Capital managing partner and former Treasury Secretary, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss President-elect Trump's economic agenda, what to expect in his second term, extension of tax cuts, the use of tariffs, and more.
Persons: Steven Mnuchin Organizations: Former, Liberty Strategic Capital
CNN —Israeli soccer fans were attacked in a “serious incident of violence in Amsterdam” overnight into Friday, Israeli authorities said, with the government saying it was sending planes to evacuate affected citizens. Social media video shared by the embassy showed videos of what it said was violence against Maccabi fans. Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar said 10 citizens were injured and advised citizens to stay in their hotels. Maccabi fans had been in the Dutch capital ahead of Thursday night’s Europa League game against Ajax. The police also said a demonstration was planned on Thursday near the stadium ahead of the soccer match between Ajax and Maccabi Tel Aviv.
Persons: Gideon Sa’ar, ” Sa’ar, Benjamin Netanyahu, , Organizations: CNN, Israel’s Maccabi Tel Aviv soccer team, Europa League, Dutch, Ajax, Maccabi fans, Maccabi, Palestinian, Maccabi Tel Locations: Amsterdam ”, United States, , Maccabi Tel Aviv
To lower housing costs, Trump has said he would allow homes to be built on federally protected land, something that could help increase the supply of homes in places like Nevada and Arizona. TaxesTrump has proposed a number of tax cuts, including a complete elimination of the federal income tax. Those cuts lowered the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, reduced individual income tax rates, and increased the standard deduction. That could create havoc for workers and consumers and reduce the amount of income taxes the federal government brings in. About 40% of Social Security recipients pay federal income taxes, typically because they have other sources of income that raise them above a certain threshold where they are required to pay income tax, according to the Social Security Administration.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, , ” Trump, , Decker, Matt Priest, , Priest, It’s, He’s, hasn’t, Immigration Trump, Jim Tobin, Trump’s Organizations: Trump, Chicago Economic, Companies, National Bureau of Economic Research, Footwear Distributors, Retailers, U.S, Federal Reserve, Immigration, Business, Pew Research Center, NBC News, National Association of Home Builders, NBC, University of New, University of Pennsylvania, Social Security, Social, Social Security Administration Locations: U.S, China, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska, Saudi Arabia, Russia, University of New Hampshire
Oversnap | E+ | Getty ImagesLONDON — Britons are facing the prospect of higher mortgage rates for longer after the government's tax-and-spend budget threw off expectations for a series of near-term interest rate cuts. Mortgage rates also took a hit from the uncertainty, with a number of smaller and mainstream lenders raising mortgage rates on the expectation that interest rates may stay higher for longer. watch nowVirgin Money became the first major lender to raise mortgage rates after the budget, lifting them by 0.15%. "This isn't the radical spike in rates that have blighted mortgage rates in the last couple of years. He added that interest rates could now remain 50-basis-points higher than previously expected at the end of the cutting cycle.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, , David Hollingworth, Hollingworth, Allan Monks, BOE Organizations: Bank of England, Wednesday, Virgin Money, Santander, Morgan's Locations: London's, Oversnap
Crypto stocks – Shares of Coinbase surged 12% as investors cheered the prospect of a more supportive regulatory environment for cryptocurrency businesses under a second Donald Trump presidency. Bank stocks — Shares of banking stocks soared in premarket trading after Donald Trump's victory spurred investor optimism that the sector could see less regulation . CVS Health — Shares rose 7.5% after CVS posted mixed third-quarter results , citing higher medical costs that weighed on net income. Clean energy stocks — Shares of renewable energy and solar companies slid on worries that Trump's second term could imperil the Inflation Reduction Act and measures to fight climate change. Dollar Tree , Five Below — Shares of Dollar Tree slipped 1.6%, while Five Below moved down 9%.
Persons: Donald Trump, Donald Trump's, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, SunRun, FirstSolar, Wegovy, Trump, CoreCivic, Dan Ives, Tesla, — CNBC's Michelle Fox Theobald, Tanaya Macheel, Brian Evans Organizations: MicroStrategy, Bank, , Citigroup, Bank of America, Trump Media & Technology, Republican, CVS, Enphase Energy, Novo Nordisk —, GEO Group, Elon, Trump, Wedbush Securities, Tilray, Aurora Cannabis, National Retail Federation Locations: FactSet, Novo Nordisk — U.S, Danish, U.S, Florida, Canada, China
Many of the efforts were focused on allocating more funds for affordable housing. They voted for a slew of measures, most of which will create additional funding for affordable housing. Affordable housing bonds in Rhode Island, North Carolina, and BaltimoreSeveral cities and states along the East Coast voted on Tuesday to fund affordable housing bonds. Proponents of stricter rent control say preventing landlords from price gauging is key to protecting the most vulnerable tenants. Freemark argued that it's unclear what the mixed results on rent control mean for the pro-housing movement.
Persons: , Donald Trump's, Yonah, Karen Bass, Angelenos, Charlotte, Hill, Anselmo —, Freemark, I'm Organizations: Service, Trump, Republican Party, Urban Institute, LA, East Coast, Orlando In, Denver Locations: Angeles, Los Angeles County, LA, Rhode Island , North Carolina, Baltimore, Rhode Island, homebuyers, North Carolina, Asheville, New Orleans, Orlando, Orlando In New Orleans, Orlando , Florida, Denver, California, Hoboken , New Jersey
Detailed below is how a second Trump presidency is expected to impact American wallets. Trump's plan to cut the corporate tax rate is generally viewed as bullish for earnings, particularly for the consumer-discretionary, communication-services, and financial sectors. Further, if Trump's presidency is inflationary and leads to interest-rate hikes, that would hit housing affordability in the form of higher mortgage rates, which track the Federal Reserve's benchmark. AdvertisementThe former president has also said he plans to extend his slew of tax cuts from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 — also known as the "Trump tax cut." Trump's plan for universal tariffs is seen as offsetting a positive tax impact and would be especially costly for lower-earning Americans.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Trump's, Trump, bitcoin, Vance Organizations: Trump, Service, Biden, White
Detailed below is how a Trump presidency is expected to impact American wallets. Trump's plan to cut the corporate tax rate is generally viewed as bullish for earnings, particularly for the consumer-discretionary, communication-services, and financial sectors. Trump's plan for universal tariffs is seen as offsetting a positive tax impact and would be especially costly for lower-earning Americans. Trump has proposed expanding the child tax credit, which currently provides up to $2,000 per child. In August, the vice presidential candidate JD Vance floated a child tax credit proposal that would include $5,000 per child for families of all income levels.
Persons: Donald Trump, , Trump, bitcoin, Vance Organizations: Trump, Service, Biden, White Locations: Americas
European stocks are heading for a lower open Wednesday as global markets focus on the vote count following the U.S. presidential election. Global markets are focusing on the results emerging from key battleground states that are expected to determine the winner of the presidential race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump won the electoral vote heavy prizes of Texas and Florida, as well as battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina. Republicans are expected to regain their majority control of the U.S. Senate in 2025, according to NBC News. U.S. stock futures rose sharply in overnight trading as investors started to speculate that Trump could have an edge in the presidential race.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris Organizations: U.S, France's CAC, IG, Global, NBC News, U.S . Senate, NBC, Republicans, Federal Locations: U.S, Texas, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, New York, California, Virginia, Asia, Pacific
New arrivals to the U.K. will receive 100% U.K. tax relief for their first four years, so long as they have been non-resident for the last 10 years. That's in addition to the £21.1 billion the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast to be raised by earlier changes to the non-dom regime announced by the Conservatives in March. "Although the draft legislation has now been released, the Government still has time to create a new non-dom system that works for internationally-mobile individuals," Porter said in a statement. If they'd gone for the tiered (system), there would have been howls that you've given into the fat cats. "If they'd gone for the tiered (system), there would have been howls that you've given into the fat cats," he said.
Persons: Mike Kemp, Rachel Reeves, Reeves, Times Rich, David Lesperance, Lesperance, Steven Porter, Porter, they'd, Leslie Macleod Miller Organizations: Ford, Labour, Finance, , Times, Associates, CNBC, Conservatives, Treasury, Government, Foreign Investors, Britain, Lesperance Locations: Kuwait, Burlington, Bond, London, United Kingdom, City, That's, Italy, Switzerland, Dubai
Goldman Sachs has modeled out some election outcomes, along with how the S & P 500 will react, ahead of the results. Trump wins and Republicans sweep A 25% likelihood, with the S & P 500 set to rise 3%. Trump wins, but the government is divided A 30% likelihood, with the S & P 500 set to gain 1.5%. This scenario will still be positive for markets, with the S & P 500 set to gain 1.5% afterward, the note read. However, investors could step in and buy the dip on the S & P 500, the firm said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris Organizations: U.S, Republicans, Trump, Republican, Nasdaq, Democratic Locations: Wednesday's, cyclicals
S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures were flat. Goldman Sachs predicts that a Trump win and Republican sweep of Congress would spark a 3% pop in the S&P 500. Even a Trump win and a divided Congress would cause about a 1.5% gain, the bank predicts. On the other hand, a Harris win with a divided Congress would cause a 1.5% drop in the S&P 500, the bank told its clients. The stock market staged a broad rally Tuesday before the election results were in with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2%, bringing the benchmark's 2024 gains to more than 21%.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Goldman Sachs, Harris, Trump, Jason Trennert, Dow Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, America, Investors, Republican, Democratic, Trump, Traders Locations: Kentucky, Indiana
Bitcoin, an asset tied to a Trump victory given the candidates courtship of the industry, soared to a record $75,000 . Heading into the election, investors and analysts pointed to several stocks and sectors that could benefit from a Trump win. Here's a roundup of some of those: Steel stocks If Trump regains the presidency, JPMorgan expects steel stocks to outperform . Related stocks that could outperform under a Trump victory include Nucor , Cleveland-Cliffs , Kaiser Aluminum and MP Materials , according to Peterson. Supporters of Trump have also used the stock as a way to invest in a Trump victory.
Persons: Donald Trump ., Trump, Kamala Harris, Here's, Bill Peterson, Peterson, UBS's, Goldman Sachs, Strategas, Lazard, Wolfe, Tesla, Elon Musk's, Marion Laboure, bitcoin, Nic Puckrin, David Zerzos, Zerzos, Marcelli, Seth Seifman, Russell, Joe Biden, IWM, , Halliburton, Trump's, ULTA, Michael Bloom, Sean Conlon, Alex Harring, Fred Imbert, Pia Singh Organizations: U.S, NBC, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Trump, JPMorgan, Aluminum, Financials Bank of America, of America, UBS's Trump, UBS, Swiss, Citigroup, Citizens, Wolfe Research, GOP, Trump Media & Technology, Trump Media, ISI, Deutsche Bank, Investors, Jefferies, Military, Strategas, Gas Energy, Evercore ISI, Exxon Mobil, Halliburton, Companies Locations: Nucor, Cleveland, U.S, China, U.S . Southern
European stocks are heading for a lackluster start to the trading day as global markets gear up for the U.S. presidential election Tuesday, with the vote too close to call between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 15 points lower at 8,177, Germany's DAX down 12 points at 19,149, France's CAC down 1 point at 7,374 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 73 points at 34,358, according to data from IG. Earnings are set to come from Saudi Aramco, Adecco, Schaeffler, Deutsche Post DHL, Zalando, Hugo Boss, Bouygues, Ørsted, Vestas Wind and Fresenius Medical Care. Market attention will be focused on which party dominates Congress as a result of the U.S. election, given that a sweep by Republicans or Democrats could contribute to drastic spending changes or a big revamp of tax policy. Follow CNBC's 2024 election live blog here.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Germany's DAX, Hugo Boss, Bouygues, Ørsted Organizations: U.S, France's CAC, IG, Saudi Aramco, Adecco, Deutsche Post DHL, Zalando, Fresenius, Republicans Locations: Saudi
Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading ahead of Tuesday's high-stakes U.S. presidential electionFutures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 20 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures inched about 0.1% higher. The latest poll from NBC News suggests the race is "neck and neck" between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The results could heavily affect where stocks end the year, but investors may want to brace for some near-term choppiness. Traders are pricing in 98% odds of a quarter-point cut following September's half-point reduction, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Stocks, Dow, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Adam Parker, Jerome Powell Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, NXP, U.S, Treasury, NBC News, Congress, Republicans, CNBC, Super Micro, Yum Brands
For many Americans, the most important focus heading into a presidential election is how the winner will impact their wallet. Related storiesFor drug prices, Harris has promised to expand two provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act, allowing Medicare to negotiate the prices of some drugs. HarrisHarris' planned policy includes the construction of 3 million new housing units, as well as an expansion to the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit. TrumpTrump has also proposed expanding the child tax credit, which currently provides up to $2,000 per child. In August, the vice presidential candidate JD Vance floated a child tax credit proposal that would include $5,000 per child for families of all income levels.
Persons: Harris, Trump, Trump's, Joe Biden's, Biden, Trump Trump, — Trump, Harris Harris, , Vance, hasn't Organizations: Trump, Federal Reserve, White, Trump Trump Locations: Americas
Beware of legal and tax complications for common assets such as houses and retirement funds. You can also liquidate the business, which will convert business assets into cash. Like a family business, these assets might have a lot of sentimental value but might not be easily passed down. Donating collections can be an effective way to circumvent capital-gains and estate taxes. Confront disagreements about assets like a house early on, and provide details about complex assets like a family business.
Persons: , who've, Snow, who's, They'll, Roth, We've Organizations: Service, Business, Cresset
But the true implications for investors monitoring the election may lie in which party controls Congress, rather than who will sit in the White House. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 The importance of whichever party controls Congress was highlighted by Trump's recent trips outside battleground states such as New Mexico , a state that hasn't voted for a GOP presidential nominee in roughly 20 years. On the other hand, Evercore ISI's Emanuel expects a Harris victory, with a Democratic sweep of Congress, could result in the S & P 500 falling to roughly 5,700. The S & P 500 slid 1%, while the Nasdaq dipped 0.5%. Earnings season continues with about 100 S & P 500 companies confirmed to report.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, I'm, Abuhoff Jacobson, hasn't, Brian Burrell, Jay Hatfield, Harris, Hatfield, Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI's Emanuel, Jerome Powell's, Ralph Lauren, Warner, Alex Harring Organizations: NBC, Congress, House, Democratic, Republican, Hartford Investments, GOP, Thornburg Investment Management, Infrastructure Capital Advisors, Senate, Wednesday, Regional Banking, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, National, Marriott International, Diamondback Energy, Wynn Resorts, Palantir Technologies, NXP Semiconductors, PMI, PMI Services, Services PMI, Petroleum, Brands, Technology, Computer, CVS, Howmet Aerospace, Gilead Sciences, Labor, Consumer, Moderna, Molson Coors Beverage, Halliburton, Hershey Co, Warner Bros, Expedia, Akamai Technologies, Paramount Locations: New Mexico, Albuquerque, Santa Fe , New Mexico, Hartford, Albemarle, Qualcomm, Michigan
The lower capital gains tax rate was increased to 18% from 10%, while the higher rate climbed to 24% from 20%. Reeves said the increases will help bring in £2.5 billion ($3.2 billion) of additional capital to the public purses. Still, Reeves said the U.K. would still have the lowest capital gains tax rate of any European G7 economy. watch nowReeves announced that the rate of tax on carried interest, which is charged on capital gains, would rise to 32%, up from 28% currently. She nevertheless urged the government to look seriously at mandating that pension funds diversify their allocation to riskier assets like venture capital — a common ask from VCs to boost the U.K. tech sector.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, BADR, Paul Taylor, Taylor, Haakon Overli, Dawn Capital, Overli, Anne Glover, Glover, Clarity, Steve Hare, Sage, Sean Reddington, Reddington Organizations: Labour Party Conference, ACC Liverpool Convention Center, Anadolu, Getty, LONDON, Labour, CGT, National Insurance, Unicorn Council, Nvidia, Dawn, NVIDIA, Amadeus Capital, Wealth, Norway's, Fund Global, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund Locations: Liverpool, British, Britain, VCs
A way to get around this is to split the overall estate balance equally instead of divvying up individual assets, Snow recommended. You can also liquidate the business, which will convert business assets into cash quickly. AdvertisementSimilar to a family business, these assets might hold a lot of sentimental value but might not be easily passed down. Donating collections can be an effective way to circumvent capital gains and estate taxes. Confront potential disagreements over assets like a house early on, and make sure to provide details on complex assets like a family business.
Persons: , Snow, who's, They'll, Roth, We've Organizations: Service, Business, Cresset
The S&P 500 enjoyed a compound annual growth rate of 12.1% from Trump’s surprise election in November 2016 through Biden’s 2020 victory, according to CFRA. “The Trump market was so strong because of a combination of very low inflation, very low interest rates and tax cuts,” said Stovall. The S&P 500’s growth rate under Democrats is 10% compared with 6.7% under Republicans, according to CFRA. In those six years since 1945, where such a dynamic has been in place, the S&P 500 has enjoyed a sizzling growth rate of 16.8%. In fact, the market has generally performed better during times of higher, not lower, tax rates across changes in all three categories, BMO found.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, ” Trump, Biden, Sam Stovall, Stovall, Bill Clinton, Kamala Harris, “ Biden, ” Stovall, Trump, Clinton, , , Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, CFRA, ” Brian Belski, Richard M, Nixon, George W, Bush, . Bush, , Richard Nixon, Bush –, ” Belski, Gridlock, Harris, BMO’s Belski Organizations: New, New York CNN, Biden’s, CFRA Research, Biden, Trump, Wall, , Democrats, Republicans, Gross, Democratic, BMO Capital Markets, Clinton, Congress, Investors, Republican, White, BMO Locations: New York
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