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By underweighting the experience of certain groups — especially lower-income or frontline workers — policymakers could learn the wrong lessons from the post-pandemic economy. The Great DivergenceIf you ask Americans how the economy is doing, the general sentiment can be summed up in one word: bad. Similarly, the Conference Board's consumer confidence data isn't quite at its post-Great Recession lows, but it's far below its 2017-19 average. The ASEC data uses a very large sample to provide the best possible insight into households' economic well-being, with more than 75,000 households participating. Similarly, the focus on the prospect of a recession soared, even outdoing the period in 2020 when the economy was actually in a recession.
Persons: it's, , Pew Organizations: University of, Conference, Labor Statistics, Government, Bureau of Labor Statistics, NFL, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, BLS, Census, Federal Locations: telemarketers, nonresponses
But while overall migration is down, state-to-state moves are slowly on the rise again. Nearly 20% of all Americans moved each year from the mid-1940s through the 1960s, according to census data . The Great Recession in 2008 hobbled the economy and slowed migration, sending the overall rate to 11 or 12%, according to census data. Getty ImagesLong-distance moves are on the upWhile the overall migration rate is low, big moves are slowly on the rise. Younger people are more likely to make big moves, according to census data.
Persons: , James Gregory, Gregory, Gregory said, Jim Crow, Gregory . Migration, deindustrialization, Brookings, Matthew, he’s, Rose Kemp, millennials, Florida ., X, Zers, Marie Bailey, Dallas, ” Bailey Organizations: Service, University of Washington, Gregory ., Brookings Institution, Golden State, realtors, Community Survey, Realtors, Business, Matthew Bank, ” Bank, Orlando Regional Realtor Association, Survey, University of Minnesota's Locations: Texas, New York, California, Florida, Detroit, California , Oregon, Washington, Midwest, nonresponse, Golden State for Texas, Georgia, X . Texas, migrators, millennials, homeownership
For whatever reason, they fail to reach the Democratic-leaning young voters who propelled Mr. Biden to victory in 2020. They’re reaching the young voters who backed Mr. Biden. In the states with party registration, for instance, the Times/Siena young voters were registered Democrats by a 13-point margin, 35 percent to 22 percent. It’s important to emphasize that just because the polls “look” right doesn’t mean they are right. Mr. Biden has just a 76-20 lead among young voters either registered as Democrats or who have previously voted in a Democratic primary.
Persons: Biden, Mr, we’ve, Trump, Biden isn’t, don’t, It’s, leaners Organizations: Democratic, Times, Mr, Democrats, Biden ’ Locations: Siena
[READ LIST]Thinking about the investigations into Donald Trump, do you think that Donald Trump has or has not committed any serious federal crimes? (Split 2) Do you think Donald Trump has the mental sharpness to be an effective president? (Split 2) Do you think Donald Trump has the personality and temperament to be an effective president? (Split 2) Do you think Joe Biden has the personality and temperament to be an effective president? [READ LIST]Do you think Donald Trump is good for democracy, bad for democracy, or neither good nor bad for democracy?
Persons: , Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Donald Trump's, Tell, Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden’s, Trump, Biden, Fielding, ReconMR Organizations: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Party, Siena College Research Institute, Republican, Trump, Democratic, Democrat, New York Times, The New York Times, statehouse, Research, University of North, Institute for Policy, Roanoke College, The Times, • Party, Times Locations: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Dominican, Puerto Rican, American, Ukraine, China, America, U.S, Mexico, United States, Siena, Arizona , Georgia, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona , Michigan, Pennsylvania, University of North Florida, State
Topline Results: July 2023 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +19 min
View the survey’s cross-tabs among registered voters and among the likely Republican primary electorate. [READ LIST](Asked of Democratic primary voters) What comes closest to how you would feel if Joe Biden were the Democratic nominee for president? MethodologyThe New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,329 registered voters nationwide, including an oversample of 818 registered Republican voters, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from July 23-27, 2023. Weighting — likely Republican primary electorateThe survey was separately weighted in multiple steps to match targets for the composition of the likely Republican primary electorate and to account for the self-reported turnout intention of respondents. Voters were considered potential Republican primary voters if one of three conditions were met:• They identified as Republican or leaned Republican on two questions about party identification.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, Biden, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Mike Pence, Tell, Ron DeSantis, Fielding, ReconMR, Organizations: Republican, Siena College Research Institute, Democratic, Democratic Party, New York Times, Siena College, The New York Times, statehouse, Research, University of North, Institute of Policy, Roanoke College, The Times, Times, • Party, for Health Statistics, D.C, Democrat Locations: Dominican, Puerto Rican, America, U.S, American, United States, Ukraine, Siena, University of North Florida, , Maryland , Delaware, Washington
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