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The National Security Agency collected the intelligence that gave US officials insights into China and Iran’s capabilities in producing deepfakes, one of the sources said. At a briefing last week, FBI officials warned that AI increases the ability of foreign states to spread election disinformation. US officials have maintained a high level of visibility into the AI and deepfake advancements made by countries including China, Iran and Russia since the 2020 election. Nearly 70% of Republicans and Republican-leaners said that President Joe Biden’s 2020 election win was not legitimate, according to a CNN poll released in August. The 2024 US election will present new opportunities for foreign influence operations.
Persons: , , Lee Foster, Foster, ” Foster, leaners, Joe Biden’s, Donald Trump Organizations: CNN, National Security Agency, NSA, Intelligence, US, Labs, , Republican, Pew Research Center, FBI, Kyiv Locations: China, Iran, Russia, United States, Ukraine, Ukraine –
CNN —As the first criminal prosecution of a former American president began just 13% nationwide feel Donald Trump is being treated the same as other criminal defendants, a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS finds. Most of the country was divided over whether he is being treated more harshly (34%) or more leniently (34%) than other defendants. Most Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say Trump is being treated more leniently than other defendants by the criminal justice system (61%), while Republicans and Republican-leaning independents largely say he’s being treated more harshly than others (67%). A broad majority of Democratic-aligned Americans say Trump’s behavior during the trial thus far has been inappropriate (72%), though Republicans haven’t leapt to his defense. Only 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say Trump’s conduct has been appropriate, with 15% saying it’s been inappropriate and 39% that they haven’t heard enough to say.
Persons: Donald Trump, SSRS, Stormy Daniels, Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, Honig, there’s, it’s, haven’t, CNN’s Ariel Edwards, Levy, Ed Wu Organizations: CNN, Republican, Trump, Biden, Capitol, Republican Party, Democratic, Republicans Locations: American
PORTLAND, Maine (AP) — The state of Maine's long-cherished reputation for political independence is being threatened by the nation's polarized politics, with more and more of its voters feeling pressured to take sides. So-called independents, or unenrolled voters, have gone from the state's largest voting bloc to trailing both major parties in just four years. Republicans, too, overtook unenrolled voters two years later. As of last month, a tally of active voters indicated there were 343,488 Democratic voters, 279,936 Republican voters and 273,298 unenrolled voters. The economist served in the Maine Senate as an independent, and remains active on political issues.
Persons: Nikki Haley, Trump, Haley, , Zach Azem, — “, Sen, Angus King, Arizona’s Kyrsten, Vermont's Bernie Sanders, Jill Goldthwait, unenrolled, , , Paul LePage, Donald Trump, Mark Brewer, Brewer, they'll, State Shenna Bellows, Richard Woodbury, “ I’m, ” Woodbury, David Sharp, @David_Sharp_AP Organizations: New, New Hampshire GOP, Democratic, AP VoteCast, GOP, University of New Hampshire Survey, Republicans, Democratic Party, Republican, University of Maine, Trump, Congressional, State, Bureau of Motor Vehicles, Maine Senate Locations: PORTLAND, Maine, New Hampshire, Bar, District, Yarmouth
Carolyn Kaster/AP/FileUS national security officials have to weigh whether publicly calling attention to disinformation might inadvertently amplify the very message they’re trying to bat down. In both scenarios, federal officials favored a muted public response, largely choosing to let state and local governments take the lead. State and local officials run elections and are more trusted voices in their communities, but how can federal officials act decisively to support them? “It’s a trick box,” said Adam Hickey, who worked on election security issues for the Justice Department’s National Security Division. “[W]e prioritize tabletop exercises that integrate the range of cyber, physical, and operational threats election officials may encounter,” Conley said in a statement to CNN.
Persons: , , , Carolyn Kaster, there’s, Biden, Xi Jinping, Kevin Lamarque, Joe Biden, deepfakes, ” Sen, Mark Warner, Kevin Dietsch, Francisco Aguilar, ” Aguilar, Donald Trump’s, Adam Hickey, Hickey, Cait Conley, DHS’s, ” Conley, , ” CNN’s Evan Perez, Natasha Bertrand, Donie O’Sullivan, Katie Bo Lillis Organizations: Washington CNN, CNN, FBI, CIA, Homeland Security, Biden White, Jeffersonville Masonic, New Hampshire, Foreign Ministry, , Senate, Committee, White, Senate Intelligence, Virginia Democrat, Republican, Trump, Capitol, Justice Department’s National Security, , Justice Department, Department of Homeland, National Security Council, US Army, DHS’s Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Security Agency Locations: China, Jeffersonville, Jeffersonville , Ohio, American, Woodside , California, Nevada, Russia, Iran, Russian, Iranian
The most recent polling on the race, published Monday by The Washington Post and Monmouth University, signals another Trump shellacking: 52% of potential primary voters said they support Trump, compared with 34% who back Haley. The poll, which was conducted prior to DeSantis dropping out, showed that just 8% of voters preferred him. “Even with a bump in the number of Democratic leaners turning out in the Republican primary, Haley is not able to catch the front-runner,” Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. The former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. has the support of New Hampshire Gov. Though still considered a long shot, New Hampshire likely gives Haley her best chance of challenging the former president, especially since any independent or unaffiliated voter can participate in the state’s primary.
Persons: Joe Biden, Nikki Haley, “ It's, , “ We've, Ron DeSantis, Haley, DeSantis, Chris Christie, – Trump, MAGA, Democratic leaners, ” Patrick Murray, , ” Trump, Sen, Tim Scott of, Doug Burgum, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Sununu Organizations: Trump, GOP, Republican, South Carolina Gov, Florida Gov, The Washington Post, Monmouth University, CNN, University of New, New, New Jersey Gov, Democratic, Monmouth University Polling Institute, Republican Party, North Dakota Gov, New Hampshire, New Hampshire Gov, Republicans Locations: New, Salem , New Hampshire, Granite State, Florida, Iowa, University of New Hampshire, Granite, New Jersey, Monmouth, Laconia , New Hampshire, Tim Scott of South Carolina, North, U.S, Hampshire, New Hampshire
For whatever reason, they fail to reach the Democratic-leaning young voters who propelled Mr. Biden to victory in 2020. They’re reaching the young voters who backed Mr. Biden. In the states with party registration, for instance, the Times/Siena young voters were registered Democrats by a 13-point margin, 35 percent to 22 percent. It’s important to emphasize that just because the polls “look” right doesn’t mean they are right. Mr. Biden has just a 76-20 lead among young voters either registered as Democrats or who have previously voted in a Democratic primary.
Persons: Biden, Mr, we’ve, Trump, Biden isn’t, don’t, It’s, leaners Organizations: Democratic, Times, Mr, Democrats, Biden ’ Locations: Siena
[READ LIST]Thinking about the investigations into Donald Trump, do you think that Donald Trump has or has not committed any serious federal crimes? (Split 2) Do you think Donald Trump has the mental sharpness to be an effective president? (Split 2) Do you think Donald Trump has the personality and temperament to be an effective president? (Split 2) Do you think Joe Biden has the personality and temperament to be an effective president? [READ LIST]Do you think Donald Trump is good for democracy, bad for democracy, or neither good nor bad for democracy?
Persons: , Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Donald Trump's, Tell, Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden’s, Trump, Biden, Fielding, ReconMR Organizations: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin Party, Siena College Research Institute, Republican, Trump, Democratic, Democrat, New York Times, The New York Times, statehouse, Research, University of North, Institute for Policy, Roanoke College, The Times, • Party, Times Locations: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Dominican, Puerto Rican, American, Ukraine, China, America, U.S, Mexico, United States, Siena, Arizona , Georgia, Nevada , Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona , Michigan, Pennsylvania, University of North Florida, State
CNN —Much remains unknown of course about the presidential general election whose traditional kick-off will come one year from today on Labor Day, 2024. Twenty states have likewise voted for the GOP presidential nominee in all four of those contests. That means 40 of the 50 states, or 80%, have voted the same way in four consecutive presidential elections. In the presidential elections of 2012, 2016 and 2020, though, the states where the margin of victory landed within four points of the national vote total dwindled. Eventually a Democratic choice to write off Florida and Ohio could provide a tactical benefit for the GOP presidential nominee.
Persons: , Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama’s, Joe Biden’s, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Trump, hasn’t, Obama, Kyle Kondik, Ball, Kondik, Amy Walter, Biden, Crystal Ball, Cook, Trump’s, headwinds, Republican Sen, Ron Johnson, Roy Cooper, Erika Franklin Fowler, , George W, Bush’s, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Michael Bloomberg, I’ve, Steve Schale, Schale, don’t, it’s, “ Biden, Ben Tulchin, Fowler Organizations: CNN, Labor, White, Democratic, GOP, University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Electoral College, Trump, Democrats, Crystal Ball, New Hampshire, Republican, White House, Biden, Pennsylvania Senate, Democratic Gov, Wesleyan Media Project, Wesleyan University, Electoral, Republicans, , Wisconsin, District, New, New York City, Sunshine Locations: Indiana , Iowa , Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arizona , Georgia, New, dislodging Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, New York, Minnesota, New Hampshire , Virginia, Oregon, Texas
The 6 Kinds of Republican Voters
  + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Nate Cohn | )   time to read: +15 min
But if the Republican Party is no longer in Reagan’s image, it’s not necessarily a populist-conservative MAGA monolith, either. But if the Republican Party isn’t quite a MAGA monolith, what is it? The groups were defined by how Republican-leaning voters felt on the issues — not how they felt about Mr. Trump. In fact, Mr. Trump leads Mr. DeSantis among every group of Republican voters identified in the analysis. They’re the smallest group of Republicans today, but this group of relatively moderate but anti-woke voters might play an important role in the Republican Party in the years ahead.
Persons: Donald J, Trump, Ronald Reagan’s, it’s, MAGA, Trump’s, Mr, They’re, ” They’re, it’s Mr, , , Trump’s MAGA, don’t, Ron DeSantis, Susan Collins, Charlie Baker, Chris Sununu, Reagan, Bush, Biden, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, DeSantis, Rick Perry, Tim Scott, Rubio, John McCain, Mitt Romney, Romney, Liz Cheney, Roe, Wade, Ted Cruz, Newt Gingrich Trump, It’s, likeliest, Cruz, Rudy Giuliani, Paul LePage, Lou Barletta, Michael Grimm Trump, ” Reagan, Rand Paul, Jason Chaffetz, Dave Brat Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, President Biden, they’re, Organizations: Right, Libertarian Conservatives, Moderate, Republican Party, New York Times, Siena College, Republican, Times, Mr, Conservatives, Fox, Trump, Blue, Trump Republican Party, Freedom Caucus, Fox News, Trump —, Republicans, Radicals, ” Reagan Democrats, Obama, Trump voters, President Locations: Ukraine, Siena, America, New York City, It’s
Is Trump Leaving an Opening in Iowa?
  + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Nate Cohn | More About Nate Cohn | )   time to read: +3 min
But unlike the national poll, our Iowa poll has revealed a few cracks in Mr. Trump’s armor. debate on Aug. 23 in our national poll earlier this week. One is that it’s about survey administration: In an online survey, you see a long list of candidates, read them over, and then you choose one. The Democratic primary, however, is a case where more sophisticated modeling of the primary electorate might make a huge difference. My guess: if we had done an elaborate Democratic primary poll — and we did not, in the absence of a competitive race — Mr. Biden’s lead would have grown.
Persons: DeSantis, Trump, Will Hurd, Hurd, Vivek Ramaswamy, Ramaswamy, YouGov, Biden, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Democratic leaners, Biden’s Organizations: Republican, Republicans, Democratic Locations: Iowa, Texas, Siena
CNN —Millions of Americans are immersed in a twisted world where language used to describe autocrats is being applied to America’s democratic institutions. The draconian rhetoric, once reserved for the likes of tyrants and dictators, has become commonplace in right-wing media when referring to President Joe Biden and the elected government he leads. It’s all part of a larger trend that has dramatically disfigured the conservative media since Trump ascended to power. Arguably, the rhetoric saturating mainstream right-wing media today is more extreme than the hyperbole used in the weeks leading up to the insurrection at the US Capitol. In those weeks, just like now, right-wing media forces set the stage and gathered the tinder for Trump — who was happy to light a match to the gasoline-soaked kindling gathered before him on January 6.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump’s, Biden, , , Charlie Kirk, Trump, ” Charlie Sykes, , aren’t, ” Sykes, leaners, America’s Organizations: CNN, Fox News, Biden, Gestapo, Department of Justice, Department of Injustice, Trump, Democratic, MAGA Media, gestapo, Republican, Trump — Locations: America, American
But on Wednesday evening, Donald Trump will elbow his way back into the campaign mainstream. At a town hall event in New Hampshire hosted by CNN, the former president will field questions from audience members and the network anchor Kaitlan Collins. The event will be live, leaving Mr. Trump more or less free to inject his lies straight into viewers’ veins. Short answer: We have in fact learned much about Mr. Trump and the threat he poses to American democracy. Nothing that Mr. Trump has done so far legally prevents him from pursuing, or serving, another term in the White House.
A new national Quinnipiac University poll shows some striking fault lines emerging in the still-early 2024 Republican presidential race. But it’s the stark GOP divides in GOP support between Trump and DeSantis that stand out in the poll. Among just self-identified Republicans, Trump gets 48% versus 31% for DeSantis. And among white Republicans with four-year college degrees, DeSantis is ahead of Trump, 51%-22%. When Biden was matched up against DeSantis, it was DeSantis 47%, Biden 46%.
Jill Biden is now “all in” on the idea, according to a person who works with the East Wing. Recent polling, however, suggests a large swath of the Democratic Party may not be eager to see the president run again. President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden arrive with Vice President Kamala Harris and second gentleman Doug Emhoff for a bill signing ceremony for the Respect for Marriage Act on Tuesday, December 13, 2022, on the South Lawn of the White House. “[Jill Biden] is the one more aware of how the last few years have affected Joe [Biden,]” noted a person with ties to the Biden family. Jill Biden is also the tender of Joe Biden’s legacy.
CNN —There’s little appetite for a 2020 rematch in the coming presidential election, according to a new CNN Poll conducted by SSRS, as majorities of registered voters within each party say they’d rather see someone new nominated in 2024. In January, the poll found a near-even split: 50% said they hoped Trump would be the nominee and 49% wanted someone else. By July, 44% wanted Trump to be the party’s nominee, and now, 38% say the same. Among Democrats who say they’d like someone else as the party’s nominee, nearly three-quarters (72%) say they have no one specific in mind. Nearly two-thirds of Americans say the president does not deserve reelection (62%), while only 37% say he does.
More Republicans say they would prefer DeSantis to be their 2024 nominee over Trump. After the GOP's lackluster midterm election results, Trump has received criticism from within the party. 42% of Republicans and Republican-leaners said they would prefer to see the Florida governor as the nominee, compared with 35% saying they would prefer the former president, according to a new YouGov America poll. The poll, conducted in the three days following the elections, is a reversal from the results of a Yahoo News/YouGov poll last month, when 45% said they'd prefer Trump and 35% said they'd prefer DeSantis. While DeSantis beat out Trump overall, scoring higher among "not very strong Republicans" and those that "lean towards" the GOP, Trump still edged him out among "strong Republicans," with 45% favoring him compared with 43% for DeSantis.
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