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AdvertisementIntel CEO Pat Gelsinger is out of the top spot after a challenging 4-year tenure. On Monday morning, Intel employees joined an all-hands meeting after receiving an email invite at 5 a.m. PT. Being CEO of Intel was Pat Gelsinger's dream since he joined the company as a teenager in 1979. But no one at the top has the technical expertise of Gelsinger, which Intel employees pointed out in their questions. No one has been a closer witness to this roller coaster than Intel employees, who have seen multiple waves of layoffs and buyouts.
Persons: Pat Gelsinger, David Zinsner, Michelle Johnston Holthaus, unravels ChatGPT, isn't, Pat Gelsinger's, Alvin Nguyen, Forrester, Gelsinger, Zisner, Holthaus, Intel's, Edward Jones, Said, Frank Yeary, Bernstein, Vivek Arya, Daniel Newman, Logan Purk, Pat, Emma, ecosgrove Organizations: Intel, Bloomberg, Department of Commerce, Nvidia, Gaudi, Bank of America
In fact, the state polls are showing not just an astonishingly tight race, but also an improbably tight race. Imagine if pollsters in this world conducted 100 identical surveys of 863 randomly selected voters (that’s the average sample size of this year’s swing state polls). Actual swing state polls show far less variation than the benchmarks we would expect in a perfect polling world. Visualizing how the reported polling margins compare to what we would expect in a perfect polling world strongly suggests “herding” of swing state polling margins around the statewide polling averages. The pattern is especially pronounced in Pennsylvania, where a huge share of the public polls have showed a tied race.
Persons: there’s, shouldn’t, Harris, Josh Clinton, pollsters, pollster Organizations: Trump, NBC, Pennsylvania Locations: Pennsylvania, Arizona , Michigan, Wisconsin
“I was betrayed, and I was used.”Guy, 63, is the Antrim County Clerk in northwest Michigan. But in the first hours following the 2020 election, results posted unofficially had Joe Biden improbably winning the county. It simply read: “Things don’t look right.”In this tiny Michigan county, election integrity is now itself on the ballot. And after the 2020 election, I felt that that horrible error that I owned was my legacy.”Guy acknowledges she messed up “big time” in 2020. Facts don’t matter to these people.”And so, in this tiny Michigan county, election integrity is now itself on the ballot.
Persons: — Sheryl Guy, , , ” Guy, Shery Guy, Donald Trump, Joe Biden improbably, Guy, we’ve, Trump, ” Trump, Biden, ” Guy —, Republican who’d, , Sheryl Guy, Victoria Bishop, Guy couldn’t, Bishop, I’ve, Bishop’s, ” Tom Stillings, Bishop —, ” Stillings Organizations: NBC, States, Trump, Republican, Victoria, Republican Party Locations: BELLAIRE, Mich, Antrim, Michigan, Antrim County, Traverse City, U.S
John Hussman warns of poor S&P 500 returns over the next 12 years. Current expectations have the S&P 500 underperforming Treasurys by 9.9% annually over the next 12 years. But valuations are causing skepticism about future market returns among others on Wall Street, even if not to the same degree. Related storiesEarlier this week, Goldman Sachs forecast that the S&P 500 would average 3% annual returns over the next decade. His Strategic Growth Fund is down about 55% since December 2010 and has fallen 16% in the past 12 months.
Persons: John Hussman, , you'll, you'd, Hussman, Hussman's, it's, Goldman Sachs, It's Organizations: Treasurys, Service, Hussman Investment Trust
AdvertisementJohn Hussman, the president of the Hussman Investment Trust who called the 2000 and 2008 market crashes, isn't shy about his characterization of the current market environment. The first piece of evidence Hussman cites is valuation, specifically the total market cap of non-financial stocks to total value added of those stocks. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 32% over the past year.
Persons: John Hussman, , It's, Mike Wilson, Michael Kantrowitz, Lance Armstrong, Hussman, Armstrong, David Walsh Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Tour de France, Hussman, Intelligence, Labor Locations: Irish
AdvertisementIntroducing the Instagram 'Mythical Reel Pull'A few other comments describe the man's post as a "Mythical Pull." AdvertisementThe comments on one Instagram post identify it as a "Mythical Reel Pull." 'Mythical Reel Pulls' aren't always positive for the postersI know that some of the people posting the Mythical Reel Pulls are not having a positive experience. For some reason, which I have yet to come up with a suitable explanation for, Instagram comments are far, far meaner than TikTok comments.) Moskowitz recently wrote about how the WTF-ness of Mythical Reel Pulls is a kind of zen koan.
Persons: Algorithm's, Instagram, Adam Mosseri, it's, Meta, couldn't, It's, blankly, P.E, Moskowitz Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Wyoming
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. It's a big one for retail with earnings from Home Depot and Walmart and, more broadly, the Commerce Department's July retail sales report. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Eli Lilly, Cowen, TJ Maxx, we'll, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Apple, Nvidia, Management, Home Depot, Walmart, Commerce, TJX, Reserve, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Marshall's
The Mankato West Scarlets, who had started the 1999 high school football season with a miserable record of 2-4, had improbably swaggered into a state championship game. Their defense, though, would first have to repel the Cambridge-Isanti Bluejackets, who were from north of Minneapolis and trailed by a single touchdown. But inside the 10-yard line, a Scarlet defender intercepted the ball, effectively clinching a 35-28 victory and Mankato West’s first championship. A coach lifted Tim Walz, then the defensive coordinator and now the Democratic candidate for vice president, skyward. In Mr. Walz’s telling, the victory also eventually proved a launchpad for politics.
Persons: Minneapolis’s, Isanti Bluejackets, Tim Walz, Walz’s Organizations: Minneapolis’s Metrodome, Mankato West Scarlets, Mankato West’s, Democratic, skyward Locations: Cambridge, Minneapolis
On a fine, bright morning last Friday, just like so many other fine, bright mornings, Gary Pickles took a walk. Mr. Pickles, a ranger who works at Northumberland National Park in England, just south of the Scottish border, was inspecting a route that wends past Hadrian’s Wall, constructed by the Roman Army in the second century A.D. He walked past the cleft where the Sycamore Gap tree had famously jutted out into the landscape before it was illegally cut down last year, and he bent down to its stump. Astonishingly, improbably, there were eight shoots where the tree once stood. “It was like when you see an old friend,” Mr. Pickles, 54, said.
Persons: Gary Pickles, Pickles, ” Mr, Organizations: Roman Army Locations: Northumberland, England, Scottish
But it's hard to argue against the track record of his most preferred valuation measure — total market cap of non-financial stocks to total revenue of those stocks — when it comes to long-term stock-market returns. Unfortunately for investors, the measure just hit an all-time high, topping levels seen in 1929, 2000, 2008, and 2022. Here's the metric:AdvertisementHussman Funds"Last week, our most reliable measure of stock market valuations hit the highest extreme in history," Hussman wrote in a July 20 commentary. AdvertisementWhile Hussman's valuation measure doesn't necessitate near-term losses, there is some evidence that stocks could soon face downside. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls.
Persons: , John Hussman, Hussman, Jeremy Grantham Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment Trust, Business, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Locations: recessionary
For Trump, an incredible week since escaping death
  + stars: | 2024-07-20 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —Donald Trump may not have changed in the past week, but the presidential race clearly has. ► Watched President Joe Biden be isolated by the growing number of Democrats who worry he can’t beat him. If Biden were to look for inspiration on how to overcome the naysayers, he could find it in Trump. When Democrats win those states, they can win the White House. In the intervening days, CNN has learned that Crooks searched for information on both Trump and Biden, including for details about the Democratic National Convention.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, , Nikki Haley, Joe Biden, Biden, Sen, JD Vance, Ohio, Vance, Trump’s, George W, Bush, Democratic Sen, John Kerry, Zoe Lofgren, , Thomas Matthew Crooks, Crooks, Ethan Crumbley, Kimberly Cheatle, Marsha Blackburn, Cheatle Organizations: CNN, Republican, Trump, Republican National Convention, White, CBS News, Democratic, Biden, California Democrat, Democratic National Convention, Secret Service, Republicans, Secret Locations: Florida, Trump, New York, Grand Rapids , Michigan . Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, California, Butler , Pennsylvania, Michigan, Butler, Tennessee
Can New York City Ever Win Its War Against Rats?
  + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Ginia Bellafante | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
What do rats do in heat waves? As temperatures have continued to stifle all will, and the humidity level has been Bangkok-in-a-thunderstorm-percent high, I raised the question with Kathleen Corradi, New York City’s first dedicated rat czar. The specific target of her enmity is the improbably named Norway rat, the dominant species in the city. Rats are mammals, Ms. Corradi pointed out, and they find oppressively warm weather as enervating as we do. A happy rat is reproducing at a rate that science says we cannot exterminate our way out of.”
Persons: Kathleen Corradi, Eric Adams, Corradi, , Organizations: Silk, Bloomberg Locations: Bangkok, Kathleen Corradi , New York, Norway, Scandinavia, Oslo, New York, York, Calgary, Alberta Province
Bob Newhart, who burst onto the comedy scene in 1960 working a stammering Everyman character not unlike himself, then rode essentially that same character through a long, busy career that included two of television’s most memorable sitcoms, died on Thursday at his home in Los Angeles. Mr. Newhart wasn’t merely unknown a few months before his emergence as a full-fledged star; he was barely in the business, though he had aspirations. In 1959, some comic tapes he had made to amuse himself while working as an accountant in Chicago caught the ear of an executive at Warner Bros. Records, which in 1960 released the comedy album “The Button-Down Mind of Bob Newhart.”The record shot to No. 1 on the charts, and at the 1961 Grammy Awards it improbably captured the top prize, album of the year. Among the nominees Mr. Newhart bested: Nat King Cole, Harry Belafonte and Frank Sinatra.
Persons: Bob Newhart, Jerry Digney, Newhart wasn’t, improbably, Newhart, Nat King Cole, Harry Belafonte, Frank Sinatra Organizations: Warner Bros . Records Locations: Los Angeles, Chicago
President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Ensemble alliance came in second, preventing the far right from taking power. The stakes couldn’t have been higher, and it is hard to overstate the sense of urgency with which French voters flocked to the polls. It ought to be noted, however, that under half of centrist voters went for the left in a run-off against the far right. Many had assumed that it was a foregone conclusion that the far right would win a majority, absolute or otherwise. On all those occasions, and again last week, many held their noses and voted for the center to keep the far right in check.
Persons: Marie Le Conte, Read, , Emmanuel Macron’s, who’d, Le Pen Organizations: CNN, Front, Greens, Ensemble, National Assembly, Rassemblement, Twitter, Facebook Locations: French, Moroccan, London, British, Vichy, France
Spain thought they had beaten Germany after Dani Olmo’s 51st-minute finish to a fine team move. Having beaten the hosts in dramatic fashion, some will now consider Spain the favourites to win Euro 2024. Spain had never previously beaten a host nation in a knockout tie at either a World Cup or European Championship. What Germany had to remember was that De la Fuente’s Spain are far more versatile in the way they play. His final game in professional football was mixed.
Persons: Dani Olmo’s, Julian Nagelsmann’s, Florian Wirtz, Manuel Neuer, Mikel Merino, Dermot Corrigan, James McNicholas, Mark Carey, Sebastian Stafford, Bloor, They’d, Merino, tonight’s, Maximilian Mittelstadt, Toni Kroos, Carl Recine, Tom, Marc Cucurella, Kroos, Pedri, Lamine Yamal, , Martin Rickett, Yamal Pedri, Luis de la Fuente, Anthony Taylor’s, Taylor, Antonio Rudiger, Robin Le Normand, Germany’s Emre, Rodri, Jamal Musiala, Le Normand, Dani Carvajal, Carvajal, Rudiger, Robert Andrich, Alvaro Morata, Unai Simon, Ilkay, Fabian Ruiz, Simon, Nico Williams —, Aymeric Laporte, Jonathan Tah, , Olmo, Dani Olmo 🇪🇸 h, Bo, ove, Ger, abi l, hal f, sid, bac, dou, tod, tim e, Rea, bui, hal, ed pre, bea Organizations: European, Croatia, Georgia, Olmo, France, Barcelona, UEFA, Manchester City, la, Germany, Sunday, pla, DFB, cri, usu, Spa Locations: Spain, Germany, Stuttgart, tonight’s Portugal, Berlin, Bloor, Real Madrid, Yamal, It’s, Spain’s, goa, abo, Wil
"In contrast, current valuation extremes imply potential downside risk for the S&P 500 on the order of 50-70% over the completion of this cycle." JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic expects the S&P 500 to fall to 4,200, while more extreme forecasts include Jeremy Grantham's estimate in the low 3,000s. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: , Jonathan Golub, Count John Hussman, Hussman, Hussman's, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Jeremy Grantham's Organizations: Service, UBS, Business, Hussman Investment Trust, New York Stock Exchange, Investor Intelligence
CNN —Only a fraction of the violence that raged across Dagestan on Sunday is visible at the moment, and it is already horrific. But it is particularly bad in Dagestan, where protests broke out in the earlier months of the war, as their sons had been disproportionately mobilized. Putin came to power in 1999 graphically pledging to wipe out “in the toilet” the extremists apparently behind apartment bombings in Moscow. But it is still the same problem Putin faced when he sneaked into Beslan in 2004. A raging sore for the Kremlin, and a reminder of both how Putin came to power and his limits on it.
Persons: Putin, Shamil Basayev, Vladimir Putin, , Lenin, jihadists, ISIS’s Organizations: CNN, Hall, Kremlin, National Antiterrorism, Antiterrorism, Police, ISIS Locations: Dagestan, Moscow, North Caucasus, Moscow’s Crocus, Ukraine, Russia, Chechnya, Chechen, Chechnya’s, Beslan, Ingushetia, Boston, Makhachkala, South, Central Asia
A high concentration of warning signals suggest a major market correction ahead, John Hussman said. AdvertisementA growing tally of ringing market alarms suggest the S&P 500 has at last reached its speculative peak, permabear John Hussman wrote on Monday. He predicted in 2000 that the S&P 500 would likely see negative total returns over the following decade, which it did. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up significantly over the period.
Persons: John Hussman, , Hussman Organizations: Service, Hussman Investment, Dow
At first, I didn't realize what I was in forThe Sahara Desert can get cold at night. Jamie Davis SmithWhen I signed up for the trip, I naively assumed a desert in North Africa would be comfortable in December. Fortunately, the desert camp was much nicer than I expectedThe Sahara Desert camp felt surprisingly cozy. Jamie Davis SmithMy camp in the Sahara — El Borj, located in Erg Chebbi — was anything but basic. Jamie Davis SmithI woke up early, in time to catch the golden sunrise over the dunes.
Persons: , Jamie Davis Smith, Erg Chebbi —, I'd, glamping Organizations: Service, Business Locations: Morocco, North Africa, Erg, Moroccan
Uncle Nate was Jewish. German war records told a different story: Nate was taken prisoner and died of his wounds at a German Airforce hospital. “Did they find Uncle Nate’s femur yet, Mom?” my daughter Naomi would ask while eating her salad. And after the match: “Have you picked Uncle Nate’s coffin yet?” Asher wants to know. Uncle Nate fought for our freedoms, and his death reminds us that freedom is never free.
Persons: Samantha Baskind, Nathan B, , – –, Nate, ignobly, Uncle Nate, Baskinds, Abe Baskind, Colonel W.E, Campbell, , , Nathan Baskind, Philip Baskind, Benjamin – –, Benjamin, David, Operation Benjamin, Rudolf Bauer, Leonhard Aumüller, Nate’s, Naomi, Asher, ” Asher, Nathan Baskind’s, Baskind Organizations: Cleveland State University, Art, CNN, US Army, Jewish, Eastern, American, German Airforce, Army, Commission, US Mortuary Service, US, Monuments Commission Locations: Warsaw, Normandy, Pittsburgh, Auschwitz, Cherbourg, Virginia, German, Texas, Northwest Africa, Tunisia, Italy, England, France, Utah
Jacob Zuma’s political career could have ended when he was forced to resign six years ago as South Africa’s president over corruption allegations. But Mr. Zuma, 82, has improbably bounced back after every threat to his political survival, and now has significant power to determine who will lead the country. The political party that Mr. Zuma began six months ago — umKhonto weSizwe, or M.K. — finished third in last week’s national election, upending South Africa’s political landscape. The showing helped to bring about the stunning collapse of the party he once led — the African National Congress, or A.N.C., which failed to win an outright majority for the first time since the country’s democracy began in 1994.
Persons: Jacob Zuma’s, Zuma, improbably, Organizations: African National Congress, upending Locations: South
The gauge is shown below in green and red alongside S&P 500 price action in blue. Most strategists at major Wall Street banks, meanwhile, generally see the S&P 500 staying above 5,000 through 2024. And as the stock market ground mostly higher, he persisted with his doomsday calls. He predicted in April 2007 that the S&P 500 could lose 40%, then it lost 55% in the subsequent collapse from 2007 to 2009. The S&P 500, by comparison, is up about 26% over the past year.
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, John Hussman, he's, Hussman, , it's, Warren Buffett, there's, David Rosenberg Organizations: Hussman Investment Trust, Business, CPS, Federal Reserve, Rosenberg Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Dynamics, bullish
CNN —Donald Trump used his day off from a criminal trial related to a past election to cast a dark, familiar shadow over the next one. Trump cut an unrecognizable figure from the grim ex-president who bleats a daily dirge of complaints about his hush money trial outside Judge Juan Merchan’s court. On specific issues, surveys show Trump leading Biden on most issues including the economy, immigration, and the Israel-Hamas war. “A chilling glimpse into Trump’s second term plansSix months before the election, Trump’s searing campaign rhetoric is becoming less an exercise in performative demagoguery than a blueprint for a potential second term. In the Time interview, Trump comes across as confident and determined to learn the lessons of his first term in which he claims he was let down by “bad” officials.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, , Trump, bleats, Juan Merchan’s, ” Trump, he’s, Merchan, Joe Biden’s, Biden, Kamala Harris, Roe, Wade, David Axelrod, Barack Obama, Axelrod, CNN’s Erin Burnett, , Trump’s, doesn’t, he’d, It’s, Eric Cortellessa, ” He’s, quagmire, it’s Organizations: CNN, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Capitol, shudder, White, Democratic Party, , Columbia University, Trump, National Guard, Guard, Republican, , Locations: Wisconsin, Michigan, Manhattan, America, crackdowns, , “ New York, North Carolina, Israel, Florida, Freeland , Michigan, Washington, China
Now, the Supreme Court will consider whether the prosecutors’ interpretation of the law can be used against the rioters and whether the convictions already secured will stick. The charge at issue in the Supreme Court case stems from a law Congress enacted in response to a series of corporate accounting scandals, including the 2001 Enron debacle. The case before the Supreme Court involves only that last charge. All three defendants appealed to the Supreme Court, but the justices granted only Fischer’s case. In a filing last week at the Supreme Court in Trump’s immunity case, Smith argued the obstruction charge should stick against Trump even if Fischer wins.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jack Smith, Trump, , Claire Finkelstein, ” Trump, Fischer, Stormy Daniels, , Joe Biden’s, Critics, Joseph Fischer, texted, ” Fischer, Nicholas Smith, Smith, Randall Eliason, Clarence Thomas, Ginni Thomas, Thomas, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Samuel Alito, Eliason, Antonin Scalia, ” Eliason Organizations: CNN, Capitol, ” Prosecutors, Trump, Justice Department, University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, Enron, Prosecutors, Appeals, DC Circuit, George Washington University, White Locations: Pennsylvania, New York, , Colorado
In a 2005 interview, Mark Zuckerberg said he came up with the idea while drunk. But when a young Mark Zuckerberg over-imbibed, he invented the "poke," the Facebook feature that is both the most creative thing Facebook has done — and one of the creepiest. The poke was one of the earliest features of Facebook, which Zuckerberg launched in college in 2004 as The Facebook. Here's how he describes the poke feature:AdvertisementThere's this feature called poking where you just go to someone's profile and you can poke the person. It also made it easier to find the page where all your pokes live (try searching "pokes" on Facebook).
Persons: Mark Zuckerberg, , we've, Zuckerberg, David Pogue, You've, improbably Organizations: Facebook, Service, CBS, Meta
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