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☆ Morning Bid: Chips are down
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The global chip sector is stealing the spotlight from major central banks, after the world's top contract chipmaker raised concerns over demand, hitting share prices of semiconductor stocks. In a week packed with central bank meetings, decisions are also due from the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday and Bank of England on Thursday. After the European Central Bank's fireworks last week, the euro will be closely watched as a signal for whether the backlash from more hawkish ECB members is gaining any traction with traders and investors. The BOE is likely to hike interest rates for the 15th time later in the week, while the Fed seems set for a hawkish pause. One more little complication is the steady grind higher in oil prices to new highs that is stoking inflation concerns, just as central banks in most developed economies are at or approaching the end of their tightening cycles.

Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, chipmaker, There's, Kazuo Ueda, BOE, Guindos, Panetta, Sam Holmes Organizations: Vidya, Reuters, General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, International, Co, of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, ECB, Thomson Locations: Asia, Detroit

A man walks in front of the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Attention this week turns to the Federal Reserve and Bank of England policy meetings, and in Asia, the BOJ on Friday. The currency and JGB markets are sending different signals, and both will be seeking more clarity from the BOJ on Friday. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda's hawkish, Bond, Li, Guindos, Panetta, Diane Craft Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, The, of, ECB, Federal Reserve, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Bank of England, Singapore, China, Moscow

☆ Euro staggers as traders wary of hawkish ECB; dollar gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, July 25 (Reuters) - The euro hit a two-week low on Tuesday as a worsening downturn in euro zone business muddied the bloc's rate outlook against a still-hawkish European Central Bank (ECB), while the dollar rose ahead of this week's trio of major central bank meetings. The offshore yuan strengthened in early Asia trade, following comments from China's top leaders on Monday pledging to step up policy support for its flailing economy. Elsewhere, sterling fell 0.11% to $1.2811, while the U.S. dollar index steadied at 101.39. "We continue to expect a combination of monetary, fiscal, property and consumption support measures to be rolled out in the next few months." The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, gained 0.18% to $0.67515, while the kiwi rose 0.06% to $0.6209.

Persons: Rodrigo Catril, Guillermo Felices, Goldman Sachs, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, National Australia Bank, NAB, U.S, PMI, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Australian, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Germany

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Tuesday: "We will closely watch currency market moves with a strong sense of urgency and will respond appropriately if the moves become excessive." Japan intervened to boost the yen last year when it weakened past the 145 per dollar level. "Euro-dollar is a bit stronger this morning, we had probably a bit of help from hawkish ECB (European Central Bank) comments this morning," said ING's Pesole. Latvian central bank governor and ECB official Martins Kazaks said in Portugal on Tuesday that the central bank will likely keep hiking interest rates after July. China's central bank set its daily yuan fixing stronger than market expectations for a second day in a row on Tuesday.

Persons: paring, Shunichi Suzuki, Francesco Pesole, ING's Pesole, Martins Kazaks, Kazaks, Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, Andrew Bailey, Kazuo Ueda, Lagarde, Vladimir Putin, Wagner, Sterling, Harry Robertson, Rocky Swift, Barbara Lewis, Conor Humphries, Chizu Organizations: Central, . Finance, Bank of Japan, ING, hawkish ECB, European Central Bank, ECB, Federal, Bank of England, Wednesday, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, Sintra, Portugal, Latvian, Russian, China, China's, London, Tokyo

☆ Yen falls after BOJ stands pat; hawkish ECB and soft US data dent dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The decision by the BOJ to keep its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and its 10-year bond yield around 0% was widely expected. Even so, it was enough to pressure the yen further with the Japanese currency falling about 0.3% against the dollar to 140.72 . That and a run of soft U.S. economic data saw the dollar fall broadly as traders scaled back their bets on how high U.S. interest rates would need to rise. The euro stood near a one-month high at $1.0937, having surged over 1% on Thursday following the rate hike and hawkish forward guidance from the ECB. Production at U.S. factories almost stalled in May as manufacturing struggled under the weight of higher interest rates, while U.S. import prices similarly fell last month.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Sterling, Rae Wee, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, ECB, Deutsche Bank, Bank of England, U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Labor Department, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, United States

Both hiked interest rates a quarter point - but only the ECB said more was to come. Without committing to it, the Fed signalled a pause in its 13-month, five percentage point tightening campaign. Money markets do partly agree with Lagarde - seeing one more quarter point rate rise in the pipeline. They now see the so-called terminal ECB rate at 3.5% in September - still a chunky 175 bps below peak Fed rates if you assume that at 5.25%, those have now reached the end of the line. "The extent of policy tightening delivered by the ECB to date is already sufficient to cause a recession," said Fidelity International's Anna Stupnytska.

☆ Dollar steady as robust U.S. data keep Fed hawks in control
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled interest rates would need to go higher in order to successfully quash inflation. The kiwi fell 0.07% to $0.6238, with eyes on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to scale down its tightening campaign only slightly, with a half-point interest rate hike to 4.75%. "With inflation so high ... not staying the course could mean even higher interest rates are required down the track," said analysts at ANZ. The offshore yuan was last marginally lower at 6.8741 per dollar, while the onshore yuan last bought 6.8657 per dollar.

☆ Dollar buoyant as robust U.S. data keep Fed hawks in control
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"For the week ahead, the dollar can track higher given the recent run of economic data which supports the narrative of higher-for-longer interest rates," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). Hawkish comments from Fed officials have also underpinned the U.S. dollar, as they signalled that interest rates will need to go higher in order to successfully quash inflation. The kiwi slipped 0.17% to $0.6232, with eyes on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) interest rate decision on Wednesday. The RBNZ is expected to scale down its tightening campaign only slightly, with a half-point interest rate hike to 4.75%. "With inflation so high ... not staying the course could mean even higher interest rates are required down the track," said analysts at ANZ.

"Markets are priced for perfection," Schnabel, the head of the ECB's market operations, told Bloomberg. Money markets now show investors betting on a peak ECB rate at around 3.75% by late summer, up from levels around 3.4% earlier this month, as a string of hawkish ECB comments in recent days unwound earlier bets. He and fellow board member Fabio Panetta said the impact of many of the ECB's rate hikes so far had yet to be felt by the economy, with the latter calling for "small steps" going forward. The ECB raised rates by 50 basis points this month and pre-announced another increase of the same size for March 16. But it kept an open mind about future moves, with most policymakers expecting another rate hike in May.

☆ Swedish crown gains on c.bank forecast for more hikes, softer dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Swedish crown rallied on Thursday after the country's central bank raised interest rates and forecast further tightening, while the dollar weakened against most other currencies alongside positive sentiment across markets. The dollar was last down 1.4% against the crown at 10.45 crowns and the euro was down 1.16% at 11.21, after the Riksbank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points to 3%, and forecast more increases in the spring. The Swedish currency has been under pressure, having hit its weakest since 2009 against the euro earlier this week as markets bet the central bank will raise rates less aggressively than the European Central Bank due to domestic economic conditions. Markets are also digesting a series of remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers about the U.S. interest rate plans after Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs data and ahead of next week's closely watched inflation numbers. Williams's comments followed Chair Jerome Powell's sticking by his interest rate outlook on Tuesday, when he reiterated that a process of "disinflation" was under way.

☆ European shares slip as business activity data underwhelms
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Sruthi Shankar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) dropped 0.1% despite a strong finish on Wall Street where battered technology stocks continued their rebound. European stocks hit a nine-month peak last week on hopes of a milder recession in Europe and smaller interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve. However, hawkish comments from ECB policymakers have helped cement bets of two 50 basis point interest rate rises at each of its next two meetings, with one scheduled next week. Shares of Norwegian salmon farmers SalMar (SALM.OL) and Mowi (MOWI.OL) jumped 6.2% and 2.8%, respectively, to top the STOXX 600. Traders pointed to a media report suggesting adjustments to the centre-left government's salmon tax hike proposal, which has weighed on the sector.

☆ Tech lifts European shares despite hawkish ECB signals
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Tech follows U.S. peers higherHawkish ECB boosts euro, banksSymrise slides on EBITDA missJan 23 (Reuters) - European stocks edged higher on Monday, lifted by technology and mining shares, as expectations of a mild recession in the euro zone offset hawkish remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) officials that sent the euro to a nine-month high. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.2% after posting its first weekly decline of the year on Friday. Tech stocks (.SX8P) jumped 1.4% after their Wall Street peers rallied on Friday following upbeat results from streaming giant Netflix Inc (NFLX.O). Investors will look for more clues on the central bank's tightening plans when ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks later in the day. Fourth-quarter earnings for STOXX 600 companies are forecast to have grown by 10.7% year-on-year, the slowest in two years, according to Refinitiv I/B/E/S data.

☆ Morning bid: Who let the hawks out?
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It's a good opportunity for policy hawks at the European Central Bank to get their message across. The ECB is likely to raise interest rates by 50 basis points in February and March and will continue to increase rates in the months after, ECB governing council member Klaas Knot said at the weekend. ECB chief Christine Lagarde meanwhile has reiterated the central bank will keep raising rates at a brisk pace to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Euro at nine-month highs vs dollarThe Bank of Canada, meanwhile, is expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps on Wednesday. Trade in U.S. stock futures suggested a flat open for Wall Street , , although the signals from other major stock markets boded well for U.S. trading later on.

☆ Yen jumps; dollar tentative ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen last bought 131.92 per dollar. "The report is likely to add on to the (yen) optimism," said Saktiandi Supaat, regional head of FX research and strategy at Maybank. Elsewhere, the dollar stood cautiously steady ahead of the closely watched U.S. inflation data out later on Thursday, which will provide more clarity on how much inflation in the world's largest economy has tamed and on the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path. Australian inflation data released on Wednesday showed that annual inflation re-accelerated to 7.3% in November, after a surprise dip to 6.9% in October, underscoring the challenge facing the Reserve Bank of Australia as it tries to cool the economy. The Chinese offshore yuan rose to a five-month top of 6.7545 per dollar on Thursday.

☆ Dollar edges up at start of new year but sentiment frail
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Dhara Ranasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It has weakened recently as markets bet a U.S. Federal Reserve tightening cycle may be nearing an end and sentiment remained fragile. The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, was trading up around 0.16% at 103.65 - off roughly six-month lows hit last week at around 103.38. Against the yen, the dollar was a touch softer at 130.94 , having hit its lowest levels since August last month. "There is an attempt by the dollar index to pull higher today but we do see that it is losing a good part of the strength it gained last year," said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of forex research at Commerzbank. That Fed tightening helped lift the dollar index 8% last year in its biggest annual jump since 2015.

The amount of new public-sector debt investors will have to absorb in 2023 will be twice as much as the previous record a decade ago, BofA notes. As early as November, the ECB's bond market contact group cited the high amount of debt private investors would have to buy as the most frequently mentioned concern. JPMorgan, the leader for euro government debt sales, expects a fall. The biggest challenge for governments will be timing, Dutch debt office head Saskia van Dun told Reuters last week. They will also have to be careful when picking maturities to issue and compensate investors enough to buy the debt, investors said.

☆ Stocks steady, yields rise as rate risks cloud 2023 outlook
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Danilo Masoni | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

By 1152 GMT, the index was broadly unchanged after a heavy week for rate increases on Friday sent it to its lowest point since Nov. 10. Long-term borrowing costs rose for a fourth straight session and short-dated yields remained not far off their highest levels in more than a decade. It wreaked havoc even on rate markets," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest in Milan. Ten-year Treasury yields rose 4 basis points (bps) to 3.522%. Gold inched 0.1% higher at $1,764 an ounce, as a softer dollar countered pressure from expectations of higher U.S. rates.

Summary Global stocks index up 0.1%Japan could tweak inflation target - sourceshttp://tmsnrt.rs/2yaDPgnhttp://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVhMILAN, Dec 19 (Reuters) - World stocks inched higher on Monday but stayed near 6-week lows as investors started the year's last full trading week still mindful of interest rate hike risks to the economy in 2023. By 0902 GMT, the index rose 0.1% after a heavy week for interest rate increases on Friday sent it to its lowest point since Nov. 10. It wreaked havoc even on rate markets," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest in Milan. "Except for the BOJ and perhaps the Bank of England, there's little confidence in the other central banks. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 1.05% to a six-week low and the yen rose 0.5% to 135.9 per dollar.

☆ Euro zone bond yields jump a day after hawkish ECB
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Dec 16 (Reuters) - Euro zone borrowing costs rose on Friday as investors revised their forecasts for bond yields after the European Central Bank pledged further monetary tightening to fight inflation. Germany's 10-year government bond yield , the benchmark of the bloc, touched 2.208% on Friday, its highest in a month, and was last up 8 basis points at 2.17%. The gap between 2-year and 10-year yields was at -28.5 bps after briefly hitting its lowest since 1992 at -41.9 bps. The yield spread was at 1 bp after falling into negative territory to as low as -15 bps. Rohan Khanna head of European and UK rates at UBS forecast the Italian-German yield spread in the 200-250 bps range in 2023.

☆ Dollar stands tall as hawkish ECB fans downturn fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It has been a volatile week for the greenback though, which has it ultimately on track for a 0.47% decline. The dollar climbed as high as 138.18 yen on Thursday for the first time since Nov. 30, ending that day with a 1.68% gain. Sterling , which is also part of the dollar index, gained 0.11% to $1.21945, following a 1.99% tumble the previous day. The Bank of England raised its key interest rate on Thursday as well and indicated more hikes were likely. The New Zealand dollar bounced 0.19% to $0.6353 following a 1.84% tumble on Thursday, when it dipped to $0.6321, also a first since Dec. 7.

☆ European shares kick off month on firm footing on Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Susan Mathew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) climbed 0.6%, after gaining 6.8% in November to log its best month since July. Energy stocks (.SXEP) slumped, capping gains for the broader index, as oil prices dipped amid uncertainty ahead of Sunday's OPEC+ meeting. China's stringent measures have contributed to slowing global growth, while aggressive policy tightening and an energy crisis in Europe have also fuelled worries over a recession. "European markets are indeed incorporating the speech from Powell that was well-received by markets already elsewhere. These developments fuel optimism that followed after data showed a smaller-than-expected rise in euro zone inflation on Wednesday, which raised the prospect of a less-aggressive monetary policy tightening by the European Central Bank.

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