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☆ Brits brace for higher mortgage payments despite Bank of England seen cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Oversnap | E+ | Getty ImagesLONDON — Britons are facing the prospect of higher mortgage rates for longer after the government's tax-and-spend budget threw off expectations for a series of near-term interest rate cuts. Mortgage rates also took a hit from the uncertainty, with a number of smaller and mainstream lenders raising mortgage rates on the expectation that interest rates may stay higher for longer. watch nowVirgin Money became the first major lender to raise mortgage rates after the budget, lifting them by 0.15%. "This isn't the radical spike in rates that have blighted mortgage rates in the last couple of years. He added that interest rates could now remain 50-basis-points higher than previously expected at the end of the cutting cycle.

Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, —, David Hollingworth, Hollingworth, Allan Monks, BOE Organizations: Bank of England, Wednesday, Virgin Money, Santander, Morgan's Locations: London's, Oversnap

☆ Dollar dips as U.S. election outcome remains uncertain, Fed rate cut looms
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0876 but faces resistance around $1.0905, while the dollar dipped 0.3% on the yen to 152.45 yen . Analysts believe Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, while Harris was seen as the continuity candidate. "A Harris win and a split Congress would likely result in 'Trump trades' quickly reversed and priced out," he added. Uncertainty over the outcome is one reason markets assume the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by a standard 25 basis points on Thursday, rather than repeat its outsized half-point easing. Futures imply a 99% chance of a quarter-point cut to 4.50%-4.75%, and an 83% probability of a similar-sized move in December.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Harris, Chris Weston, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Dealers, Trump, Reserve, of England, Norges Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Labor, China's National People's Congress, Reuters Locations: Asia, United States, Iowa, Treasuries, gilts, Beijing

☆ UK borrowing costs spike after extensive tax hikes announced in budget
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Maja Smiejkowska | ReutersLONDON — U.K. borrowing costs on Wednesday touched their highest level since Labour took office, after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves unveiled a vast package of tax hikes in her first budget. The yield had cooled to a 3 basis point rise to 4.35% by 4:00 p.m. U.K. time (12:00 p.m. The yield on 2-year bonds, which in the U.K. are known as gilts, were over 6 basis points higher at 4.33% after rising by as much as 10 basis points. The Treasury separately said it would raise gilt issuance by £22.2 billion ($28.9 billion) to £299.9 billion for the fiscal year to meet its net financing requirement. Those included the facts that many key policies had already been announced, and that any increase in borrowing would be to fund public investment.

Persons: Rachel Reeves, Maja Smiejkowska, Reeves, Liz Truss Organizations: Reuters LONDON, Labour, Treasury, Conservative Party, Bank of England Locations: London, Britain

☆ These stocks and bonds are set to win from the U.K.'s budget, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The U.K.'s Labour Party is set to unveil its national budget for the first time in 14 years later on Wednesday. Investment bank analysts have highlighted several stocks that could win or lose ground if the rumored measures are unveiled or curtailed. The Wall Street bank's analysts added that "U.K. long-dated yields might decline with easing budget uncertainty and continued inflation relief". The chancellor is reported to want to remove the inheritance tax relief available to investors holding stocks listed in this market in the Wednesday budget. Such a move may entice existing investors to sell the stocks, if the tax policy change likely impacts them.

Persons: Rachel Reeves, Goldman Sachs, Christian Mueller, Glissmann, Pound Sterling, Investec's Ben Newell, Alan Brierley, Investec's, Genuity, Canaccord Genuity, Alex Brooks, Justin Bates, Portia Patel, Michael Bloom Organizations: Labour, Finance, Investment, London Stock Exchange, Foresight, Fund, Greencoat, Renewables, Infrastructure, International, AIM, London Stock Exchange's, Technology Ashtead Tech Locations: United Kingdom

☆ Yen slips as Japan's election result clouds BOJ rate hike prospects
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The yen touched a three-month low on Monday as Japan's ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority and investors figured that would likely slow future interest rate hikes, while the dollar headed for a monthly gain on rising U.S. yields. On the dollar, the yen hit its weakest since late July at 153.3 in early-morning trade and it touched the same milestone at 165.36 to the euro . That was down from the 279 seats they held previously and marked the coalition's worst result since it briefly lost power in 2009. The U.S. dollar index has climbed 3.6% during October, its sharpest monthly rise since April 2022. The New Zealand dollar traded near a three-month low of $0.5974, down nearly 6% for the month.

Persons: Shigeru Ishiba's, Komeito, Donald Trump, Sterling Organizations: Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party, NHK, Bank of Japan, Nomura, U.S, gilts, Australian, New Zealand Locations: Japan, U.S, Europe, Australia, China

☆ JD Vance says he's worried about a 'death spiral' in the US bond market. Here's what he's talking about.
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

JD Vance warned recently of a "death spiral" in the US bond market. "Do they try to take down the Trump presidency by spiking bond rates?" AdvertisementVice Presidential candidate JD Vance worries about soaring interest rates sparking a "death spiral" in the US bond market that could ultimately "take down the finances of this country." And the only thing that really makes that serviceable is the interest rates are still pretty low. As to where US interest rates seem to be going in the near future, the answer is lower.

Persons: Vance, Trump, JD Vance, —, Tucker Carlson, Liz Truss, Steve Sosnick, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Trump, Federal, Medicare, Social Security, Bank of England, Interactive Brokers, Business Locations: China, Japan

☆ History shows how a UK election can impact the country's stock market
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-27 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Labour leader Tony Blair arriving in Downing Street after his election victory with crowds waving flags in the background, 2nd May 1997. The more domestically-oriented FTSE 250 has tended to outperform the FTSE 100 following elections, with stronger outperformance following Labour victories, it said. Leon Neal | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesAccording to Capital Economics, the U.K. stock market has faltered on five occasions under past Labour governments. Higgins also observed that the relative performance of U.K. stocks has "generally been underwhelming since 2010," when the Conservatives took office. Three could be attributed to the "unsustainability of fixed exchange rate regimes" between the 1930s and 1970s, one to the Great Financial Crisis, and the fifth to the 1976 Debt Crisis, he said.

Persons: Tony Blair, Jeff, Rishi Sunak, Rachel Reeves, Sir Keir Starmer, Angela Rayner, Leon Neal, John Higgins, Higgins, Labour's, Keir Starmer, Reeves, Venkatakrishnan, Liz Truss, Sunak Organizations: BBC News, Current Affairs, Labour Party, Labour, Conservative Party, Citi, Conservative, Centre, Getty, Capital Economics, Conservatives, Shadow, Economic, Barclays, C.S, CNBC Locations: Downing, Purfleet, United Kingdom, Davos

☆ US debt: Is America at risk of a Liz Truss-style market meltdown? The CBO thinks so
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-26 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

In an interview with the Financial Times, CBO director Phillip Swagel said US government debt — which the Treasury Department puts at nearly $35 trillion — is on an “unprecedented” trajectory. UK government bonds, or gilts, and the pound sold off sharply, partly in response to plans by Truss to issue more debt in order to pay for tax cuts. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. He has promised to extend his 2017 tax cuts and has also spoken about reducing the corporate tax rate from the current 21% to 15%. “I will make the Trump tax cuts the largest tax cut in history,” he said last month at the Black Conservative Federation’s Honors Gala in South Carolina.

Persons: Phillip Swagel, Liz, ”, Truss, ” Swagel, Dave Ramsden, Donald Trump’s, Joe Biden, Fitch, “, Trump Organizations: London CNN, Congressional, Financial Times, Treasury Department, CNN, Bank of England, Democrats, Trump, Black Conservative, US Treasury, Federal, CBO Locations: United States, United Kingdom, South Carolina

☆ Davos: A mountain of debt and a wave of elections. World leaders are hamstrung
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-14 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

London CNN —World leaders are flocking to Davos this week to pontificate on the planet’s most pressing problems. Even in the absence of a new crisis, soaring debt servicing costs will constrain efforts to tackle climate change and care for aging populations. Mortgage rates and other borrowing costs soared as investors demanded much higher premiums for owning UK debt. Mounting debt and political brinksmanship have already taken their toll on America’s credit rating, which typically affects borrowing costs for the government, businesses and households. And that would increase the government’s borrowing costs.

Persons: worryingly, Michael Saunders, ”, Saunders, that’s, Liz Truss, Dave Ramsden, Fitch, Moody’s, Raghuram Rajan, “ It’s, ” Rajan, Anna Cooban Organizations: London CNN —, Bank, CNN, Oxford Economics, Bank of England, AAA, States ’, Reserve Bank of India, Labour Party, Treasury Department, Federal, University of Chicago Booth School of Business Locations: Davos, Kingdom, Argentina, States, United States, Switzerland

☆ Bank of England drags Bagehot into the shadows
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

That is no longer tenable, in part because of reforms to bank regulation that shifted activity from traditional lenders to financial market players. These days, the institutions in need of urgent liquidity are just as likely to be pension funds, insurers or hedge funds. The British central bank’s initial ideas make sense, but only solve part of the problem. The central bank can short-circuit the panic by opening the credit taps. Central banks are only just starting to grapple with what it means to be a lender of last resort in that context.

Persons: Walter Bagehot’s, Andrew Hauser, BoE, WALTER, Gurney, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Bank of England, Reuters Graphics Reuters, U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Pensions, . Treasury, Citadel, Millennium Management, City of, U.S . Federal, Gurney & Company, Victorian, Thomson Locations: British, City, City of London, Basel, Overend, Lombard

Investors cautioned that tax breaks would not be sufficient to raise business investment while UK interest rates stayed high. But Wednesday, equity markets focused on Hunt's business boosts, such as a move to make full expensing on investment permanent. UK stock markets have underperformed their European and U.S. peers in 2023. The FTSE 100 index 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 10.7, about half that of U.S. stocks, with Hunt's budget unlikely to move the dial too far. Reuters GraphicsSTERLING SOGGYThe pound struggled to gain any traction on the back of Hunt's budget.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Kwasi Kwarteng, Leigh Himsworth, Simon Harvey, Philip Shaw, Thomas McGarrity, Fuller, Smith, Turner, Oli Creasey, It's, BoE, GILTS, Craig Erlam, Goldman Sachs, Naomi Rovnick, Samuel Indyk, Lucy Raitano, Amanda Cooper, Harry Robertson, Angus MacSwan Organizations: REUTERS, Wednesday, Traders, Investors, Fidelity International, Reuters Graphics, Bank of England, BT, Investec, RBC Wealth Management, Reuters, BREWERS, Debt Management, Reuters Graphics STERLING, Thomson Locations: U.S, Cheviot, gilts, London

☆ Take Five: Black Friday is (almost) here
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, marking the start of the shopping season that follows the Thanksgiving holiday, while business activity data should gauge the temperature elsewhere. 1/ BARGAIN HUNTINGThe crucial holiday shopping season kicks off with Black Friday on Nov. 24 at a time when investors are questioning whether the consumer-driven U.S. economy can remain resilient. This year's Black Friday comes as Americans grapple with soaring interest rates and inflation that, while easing, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Already, data for October showed U.S. retail sales fell, pointing to slowing demand, although the decline was less than expected. As long as that's not the case, pressure is on the Kishida cabinet since a weak yen is unpopular politically.

Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, There's, PIMCO, Rishi Sunak, David Cameron, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, bode, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Pragmatist Massa, Prinz Magtulis, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Mark Potter Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Black, Nvidia, Insider Intelligence, European Commission, PMI, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, DOWNING STREET, Labour, gilts, Natwest, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Peronist, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Argentina, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Britain, Japan, Egypt, Taiwan, South Africa, India

☆ BoE's Ramsden: UK interest rates to stay high for extended time
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of England is likely to need to keep interest rates high for an extended period, Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said on Thursday, sticking close to the central bank's existing language on the topic. Ramsden voted with the majority on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) this month to keep interest rates on hold at a 15-year high of 5.25%. "Monetary policy is likely to need to be restrictive for an extended period of time," Ramsden said in prepared remarks for the European Systemic Risk Board's annual conference. "The MPC have communicated that monetary policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably in the medium term," he added. The BoE currently holds 748 billion pounds ($931 billion) of gilts, down from a peak of 875 billion pounds in December 2021, and committed to reduce its stockpile by 100 billion pounds between October 2023 and September 2024.

Persons: Dave Ramsden, Ramsden, BoE, David Milliken, Sachin Ravikumar, Kylie MacLellan Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, Financial, Thomson

The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. Following the data, yields on short-term UK Gilts, reflecting near-term interest rate expectations, slid, aiding a 7.0% surge in rate sensitive real estate investment trusts (.FTNMX351020). "It may well be due to potential sentiment coming ahead of tomorrow's UK CPI data, with the hope that it comes in lower as well," said Christopher Peters, trading floor manager at Accendo Markets. UK October CPI data, due on Wednesday, could throw further light on the outlook for domestic monetary policy. Reporting by Khushi Singh and Johan M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips and Alex RichardsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Toby Melville, Christopher Peters, Jefferies, Tim Clark, Khushi Singh, Johan M Cherian, Sherry Jacob, Phillips, Alex Richardson Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Vodafone, Federal, tomorrow's, Accendo Markets, Investors, Entain, Royce, Emirates, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Teck, U.S, Italy, Bengaluru

☆ UK and Europe's borrowing costs slide after central banks hold rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. The 10-year yield on U.K. government bonds, known as gilts, was 13 basis points lower at 4.366% at 3:20 p.m. in London following the Bank of England announcement at midday. The 2-year yield, a reflection of interest rate expectations, was down 8 basis points at 4.711%. Elsewhere in Europe, bond yields have also been sliding. German 10-year bond yields fell following the Fed decision and were around 5 basis points lower on Thursday, while Italy's 10-year yield was down 9 basis points.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, —, Philip Lane, Jerome Powell's, Steve Englander Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Research, Standard Chartered, Treasury Locations: City, London, Britain, Europe, North America, U.S

And some banks think the Bank of England may be the latest to paper over the QT cracks as soon as this week. Already, there's been some awkward shuffling of feet around a process that was meant to be just balance sheet plumbing. The Federal Reserve may be further away from dealing with the QT issue head on. Deutsche Bank's UK strategists agree and think "the bar for a shift in QT policy is lower heading into yearend." Deutsche argues the BoE could either skew gilt sales shorter or agree to sell evenly based on current market valuations.

Persons: there's, BOE, BoE, BofA, Deutsche, Mike Dolan, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: Bank of England, European Central Bank, Federal, . Treasury, Bank, Treasury, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank's, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, yearend

☆ Rising yields and war: Here's how to trade the volatility, according to fund managers
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Market volatility looks here to stay: Yields are still rising, a war is raging, and it's uncertain whether interest rates will stay higher for longer. Go for bonds Though volatility in the bond market has led to losses, some fund managers are saying that it's time to get back into this asset class, given that yields are high. Money market funds typically include short-term Treasurys. Bond yields move inversely to prices — that means a peak in interest rates may signal that bond prices have bottomed. When interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall as existing bonds with lower yields become less attractive.

Persons: Investors, David Katz, Katz, Bryn Jones, there's, Jones, Hide, Paul Meeks, Meeks, Steven Glass, Glass, Marsh McLennan, he's, they're, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Bank of America, Matrix Asset, CNBC Pro, gilts, U.S . Federal, Treasury Bond ETF, Pella Funds, Group, ASM, Taiwan's Locations: Israel, United States, China, U.S, Pella, Germany, Netherlands

☆ Should you lock in those high yields right now? Here's what Wall Street is saying, and how to invest
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

But with 10-year Treasury yields surging to 5% - a 16-year high , many investors might now be tempted to lock in those high yields and buy into bonds. "You may not see such high yields as these in the next year or two," he told CNBC's " Squawk Box Asia " on Thursday. Bond prices and bond yields move in opposite directions. It's unfavorable on U.S. intermediate-term fixed income, as well as high yield taxable fixed income. Types of fixed income that it's overweight on include short-term U.S. Treasurys, U.S. inflation-linked bonds, U.K. gilts and emerging market bonds.

Persons: Wells, Paul Christopher, CNBC's, Christopher, Wells Fargo, Thomas Poullaouec, Rowe Price, Wells Fargo's Scott Wren, Bryn Jones, Rathbones, there's, Jones, He's, BlackRock Organizations: Investment, U.S, gilts, BlackRock Investment, U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasurys Locations: Asia, Pacific

☆ India's state-run banks to lower bond purchases as liquidity tightens - treasurers
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Dharamraj Dhutia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India’s state-owned banks will slow government bond purchases in the weeks ahead as banking system liquidity tightens, treasury officials from nine state lenders said. REUTERS/Hemanshi KamaniBond yields have spiked since Oct. 6, when the central bank said it will keep monetary policy restrictive and sell bonds to manage banking system liquidity. These lenders have bought 253 billion rupees ($3 billion) of government debt since Sept. 22, including 100 billion rupees on Oct. 6. Banking system liquidity - the quantum of funds in the interbank market - has largely been in deficit from the middle of September. Bond traders expect the banking system’s cash position to stay in deficit because of tax payments and likely bond sales by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Persons: “, ” Vijay Sharma, PNB Gilts, Bond Organizations: REUTERS, Banking, Reserve Bank of India, “ Locations: MUMBAI, ”, India

☆ India's state-run banks to lower bond purchases as liquidity tightens, treasurers say
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Dharamraj Dhutia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - India's state-owned banks will slow government bond purchases in the weeks ahead as banking system liquidity tightens, treasury officials from nine state lenders said. Bond yields have spiked since Oct. 6, when the central bank said it will keep monetary policy restrictive and sell bonds to manage banking system liquidity. These lenders have bought 253 billion rupees ($3 billion) of government debt since Sept. 22, including 100 billion rupees on Oct. 6. Reuters GraphicsBanking system liquidity - the quantum of funds in the interbank market - has largely been in deficit from the middle of September. Bond purchases would be incremental and linked to rise in yields, say at every 3-4 basis points, the treasury head at the state-run bank said.

Persons: Vijay Sharma, PNB Gilts, Dharamraj Dhutia, Swati Bhat, Mrigank Organizations: Reuters Graphics Banking, Reserve Bank of India, Thomson Locations: MUMBAI, India

☆ HS2: Britain's high-speed rail fiasco reflects grim economic reality
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Mark Thompson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

“Our plan will drive far more growth and opportunity here in the north than a faster train to London ever would,” he said Wednesday. Some of the alternatives Sunak highlighted were predicated on the delivery of HS2, said Henrietta Bailey, CEO of Greater Birmingham Chambers of Commerce. “This is the biggest and most damaging U-turn in the history of UK infrastructure,” the High Speed Rail Group, which represents companies such as Siemens, Hitachi and Bombardier, said in a statement. “The decision … sends a hugely disappointing message about our commitment to completing major infrastructure projects in the UK,” said Stephen Phipson, chief executive of Make UK, which represents manufacturing firms. The country must hope that his latest policy reversal doesn’t deter investors and further undermine a struggling UK economy, perpetuating a doom-loop of weak growth and underinvestment.

Persons: Rishi Sunak, Sunak, ”, Henrietta Bailey, Stephen Phipson, Mark Allen, ” Sunak, —, Liz Truss, he’s, Sunak blinked, James Mason, ” — Hanna Ziady Organizations: London CNN —, Leeds, Birmingham Chambers of Commerce, HS2 —, Conservative, Speed Rail Group, Siemens, Hitachi, Bombardier, Make, Investors, Treasury, Business Locations: England, United Kingdom, London, Germany, France, Italy, China, Japan, Edinburgh, Birmingham, Manchester, Britain, West, North Yorkshire

☆ Government bonds are in a rout worldwide. Here's why you should care
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

When official interest rates rise, so do investors’ expectations for returns on bonds, known as yields. In the United Kingdom, the yield on 30-year bonds also reached 5% this week, the highest level in more than two decades. Yields on Italy’s 10-year bonds hit 5% on Wednesday, the highest level since 2012, when that crisis was in full swing. Mortgage rates riseThe yields on local government bonds are usually used by banks to price mortgages. High official interest rates in America and Europe have also raised the cost of borrowing for businesses.

Persons: Saul Loeb, Liz Truss, —, Matt Cardy, Freddie Mac, Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley, Stocks, ” Russ Mould, AJ Bell, we’ve, ”, “, That’s, ” Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown Organizations: London CNN, US Treasury Department, Getty, UK, CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, BlackRock, Hargreaves Locations: Washington ,, United Kingdom, Bath, England, United States, Europe, America

☆ Expecting a recession? Advisors say you could make 40% returns with a simple bond trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As interest rates potentially peak, investment advisors say there are now opportunities for hefty gains through certain government bonds. This was during the Covid-19 pandemic when the Bank of England had just cut rates to 0.1%. "You potentially could make a good capital appreciation when interest rates start to fall," Amis added. Amis expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in August 2024. Meanwhile, interest rate traders in the U.S. expect the Federal Reserve to implement its first rate cut in July 2024.

Persons: Matthew Amis, Amis, Abrdn, Iain Stealey, Stealey Organizations: Bank of England, U.S, Treasury, Bank of, JPMorgan Asset Management, Federal Reserve Locations: U.K, U.S

Benefiting from the highest interest rates since 2008, pension funds are better funded to meet future payouts than they have been in years. Because insurers hold a lot less government debt than pension funds, favouring higher-return assets such as corporate debt, they are expected to sell some of the gilts they receive. It is selling 240 billion pounds of debt this year, a record, save for 2020-21. Helped by the pension fund demand of past years, Britain's average debt life is around 15 years, more than double the U.S. and Germany's. Britain has already started skewing its funding towards shorter debt this year, citing high borrowing needs, a move investors reckon also reflects declining pension fund appetite.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, BoE, gilts, Chris Jeffery, Lane Clark, Peacock, Barry Kenneth, Van Lanschot, Arif Saad, Craig, Owen Davies, LGIM's Jeffery, Yoruk, Carolyn Cohn, Dhara Ranasinghe, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of England, Legal, General Investment Management, Fund, Investment, Royal London Asset Management, Investors, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: gilts, Germany's, Britain, Amsterdam, London

☆ Bank of England bond sales creating a 'selling gold at the bottom' moment, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. Henry Nicholls | ReutersLONDON — The Bank of England's rapid pace of bond sales is creating a "selling gold at the bottom" moment for investors, according to Christopher Mahon, head of dynamic real return at Columbia Threadneedle. Now, despite the fact that the value of gilts has fallen dramatically since then, the central bank is unwinding those holdings, and fast. In late July, the central bank estimated that it would require the Treasury to indemnify £150 billion ($189 billion) of losses on its asset purchase facility (APF). The Bank of England, for its part, disputes that the asset sales are affecting markets in any substantive way.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Christopher Mahon, Mahon, BOE, it's, Dave Ramsden, Ramsden Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters LONDON, Columbia, U.K . Treasury, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank, U.K, . Bank of England, CNBC, Monetary, BNP Locations: City, London, Britain

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