Analyst Bill Peterson downgraded the stock to neutral from overweight and slashed his price target to $36 from $54 in the runup to its earnings report next week.
Despite an approximately 90% correlation between Alcoa shares and aluminum prices over the past decade, Alcoa has underperformed the metal by 7% since April.
Aluminum prices as a whole should also be cheaper than previously forecasted in both the fourth quarter and 2024, but may find support in the second half of next year as inventories thin out.
Cost pressure could also remain into 2024 given the lower bauxite grade feed for refineries.
As a group, Peterson said he remained constructive on aluminum stocks in the long term.
Persons:
Bill Peterson, Peterson, Kaiser, Constellium, — CNBC's Michael Bloom
Organizations:
JPMorgan, Alcoa, AA, Midwest
Locations:
Alcoa, China, U.S, Western Australia