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This market is starting to summon the lighthearted take on a mullet haircut: business in the front, party in the back. BTC.CM= YTD mountain Bitcoin, YTD Every bullish argument for bitcoin comes down to "More people will soon have more ways to buy more of it." I've tracked the interplay between bitcoin and Nvidia shares for a while. The market's immediate response was simply to allow Nvidia to hold onto the $2.3 trillion in market value it's added this year, but not to pile on more. Meaning the current pace of new money entering these funds is not as heavy relative to total market value as it was nearly four years ago.
Persons: Trump, bitcoin, I've, John Roque, Warren Pies Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Nvidia ramped, Vanda Research, Trump, 22V Research, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, 3Fourteen Research Locations: lockstep, bitcoin
President-elect Donald Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell could be on a policy collision course in 2025 depending on how economic circumstances play out. That in turn could infuriate Trump, who lashed Fed officials including Powell during his first term in office for not relaxing monetary policy quickly enough. Though Powell became Fed chair in 2018, after Trump nominated him for the position, the two clashed often about the direction of interest rates. Should the results start to show up in the data, the Powell Fed may be tempted to hold tougher on monetary policy against inflation. "They're going to look at a very nontraditional approach to policy that Trump is bringing forward but put it through a very traditional economic lens," he said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Powell, infuriate Trump, Joseph LaVorgna, Trump Organizations: White, Washington , D.C, Federal, National Economic Council, Trump, Fed, Nikko Securities Locations: Rose, Washington ,, Trump's, Nikko
AdvertisementTraders see a 45% chance the Fed pauses rate cuts in December, up from 17% last week. The rising odds come as markets digest a win for Trump, whose policies could complicate the Fed's plans. After two consecutive interest rate cuts, markets think the Federal Reserve might be ready to hit pause. AdvertisementThe rising odds come as markets continue to digest a win for Donald Trump, and as Fed officials have sounded cautious on the path of future policy easing in recent remarks. AdvertisementThe rising odds of a pause also come as Fed speakers this week have struck a cautious tone.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joseph Stiglitz, David Kelly, Jerome Powell, he'd, Trump, JPMorgan's Kelly, They're, Kelly, Michelle Bowman, Lisa Cook, Cook, Powell Organizations: Trump, Reserve, JPMorgan, Fed, Federal, University of Virginia Locations: West Palm Beach , Florida, Charlottesville, Dallas
However, he went on to back up Chair Jerome Powell 's statement Thursday that the Fed doesn't need to be "in a hurry" to cut. "I do think if there's disagreement of what's the neutral rate, it does make sense at some point to start slowing." Getting to neutral, or a place that neither boosts nor restrains growth, is the Fed's ultimate goal, but Trump's victory could complicate the journey. The burst of euphoria after Trump's win actually complicates the situation by providing looser financial conditions that might make the Fed slower to ease. In any event, traders see a high likelihood that even if a December cut does happen, the Fed almost certainly will skip January as it assesses the landscape.
Persons: Donald Trump, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Susan Collins Organizations: Trump, Wall, Federal, Chicago Federal, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, Boston Fed, Traders
"We have increased our bets on inflation," he told CNBC's Leslie Picker at CNBC's Delivering Alpha investor summit on Wednesday. "We will have another inflection up in inflation," he said. "The policy mix being proposed is inflationary and we will see more of that over the next few years." The latest CPI data released Wednesday showed inflation in line with market expectations, at 2.6%. There is an argument for tolerating it and trying to run the economy as hot as possible.
Persons: David Einhorn, Donald Trump's, CNBC's Leslie Picker, Einhorn, bearish, Nelson Peltz, Trump, Harris, You've, you've, Anne Walsh Organizations: Greenlight, Alpha, Trump, Maytag, Trian, Guggenheim Partners Investment Management Locations: U.S
For one, the market was already in a sturdy uptrend, the S & P ahead by 20% in 2024 by October. Now, the S & P is up 44% in the past 18 months and the P/E is above 22 on more elevated margins. Here's the S & P 500 Value vs Growth relationship since 2014. His call is for investors to fade any near-term rally that takes the S & P above his 6100 "bull case" target for year end. For sure, the S & P 500 is by some measures running a bit hot, pushing above the top end of its two-year bull-market path.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jay Powell, Trump, Cyclicals, Russell, YTD, Doug Ramsey, we're, reflating, Scott Chronert, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Republican, Trump Trade, Federal, Treasury, financials, Nasdaq, Group, Investment, Trump, Russell, Citi Locations: upending Washington, U.S, year's
Trump took a dim view of the Powell Fed during his first term in office, calling policymakers "boneheads" and once compared Powell to a golfer who couldn't putt. Powell, who was nominated by Trump in November 2017 and took office the following February, largely shrugged off the criticism then, and he again deflected Thursday. However, dealing with the ramifications of a Trump presidency will be almost unavoidable for the Fed leader. LaVorgna has a unique perspective on the situation, having served as chief economist for the National Economic Council under Trump. Trump historically has favored lower rates, though that too could change if the Fed cuts and inflation rises.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Donald Trump, Trump, Powell, I'm, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Lavorgna Organizations: Federal, Getty, firebrand Republican, Powell Fed, Trump, Fed, Nikko Securities, National Economic Council Locations: Washington, Washington , DC, stoke
Inflation data in the week ahead could determine whether a stock market that surged to all-time highs after Donald Trump 's decisive victory can continue to push higher. Meanwhile, the October producer price index, which excludes shelter, is set to have risen 0.3%, consensus estimates show, up from a 0.0% reading the prior month. Initial Claims (11/09) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (October) Earnings: Applied Materials , Walt Disney Friday, Nov. 15 8:30 a.m. Export Price Index (October) 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (October) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Donald Trump, Hogan, We've, Nancy Tengler, Bitcoin, Harker, Tyson, Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Riley Wealth Management, FactSet, Laffer, Investments, Trump, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, Philadelphia Reserve, Carnegie Mellon, Occidental Petroleum, Nation Entertainment, Tyson Foods, Mosaic, Treasury Budget NSA, Cisco Systems, Walt Disney, Price, Retail, Manufacturing Locations: China, U.S
If Trump wins the election, the Fed could pause rate cuts in December, JPMorgan's David Kelly says. Kelly points to Trump's plans for expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation. Kelly pointed to Trump's plans for an expansionary fiscal policy that would fuel inflation higher and keep rates from coming down. AdvertisementIn that case, the Fed would likely stick to its projected path of policy easing, Kelly said. Advertisement"Once they got some sense of what fiscal policy is going to do, I think that will have some impact on their decision-making.
Persons: JPMorgan's David Kelly, Kelly, Harris, , Donald Trump, David Kelly, Trump, Kamala Harris, They're Organizations: Trump, Service, Federal, JPMorgan, Business, Fed
Loading chart...LONDON — U.K. borrowing costs posted two days of gains right after the Labour government unveiled a huge package of borrowing and tax rises in its Wednesday budget — but analysts downplayed the possibility of a second "mini-budget" crisis in the British bond market. The 10-year gilt yield , representing medium-term borrowing costs for the government, was slightly lower on the day at 11:20 a.m. London time. Yields move inversely to prices, so higher yields represent a sell-off in bonds — and an aversion to funding U.K. debt. The incident sent bond yields soaring so rapidly, they threatened to destabilize pension funds. Loading chart..."The market is right to be concerned" about the U.K. fiscal outlook, Mohit Kumar, chief financial economist for Europe at Jefferies, told CNBC.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, Liz Truss, BOE, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown, It's, Streeter, CNBC's, Sterling, Mohit Kumar, We've Organizations: LONDON, Labour, Wednesday, Bank of England, Deutsche Bank, Hargreaves, U.S ., Jefferies, CNBC Locations: London
BEIJING — China's official purchasing managers' index for October came in at 50.1, in expansionary territory for the first time since April, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Thursday. The last time the PMI was above the 50-point line that determines contraction from activity was in April, with a reading of 50.4. Raw materials inventory ticked up to 48.2, still in contraction territory, along with employment at 48.4, which was mildly better than the prior month. The statistics bureau's PMI for non-manufacturing activity rose to 50.2 in October. The employment portion of the non-manufacturing PMI climbed by 1.1 percentage points to 45.8.
Organizations: BEIJING, National Bureau, Statistics, PMI
This is the first in a five-part series about the impact both Trump and Harris presidencies could have on US consumers. To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each. Advertisement"Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.
Persons: Harris, , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Today's, they're, BofA, It's, Financials, Trump's, Trump, Peter Berezin, Joe Biden's, Bonds, Crypto, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, bitcoin, Chhugani, Harris Harris, she's, I'm, Larry Fink, Biden, it's Organizations: Trump, Service, Business, Wall, Bank of America, Allies, Foundation, BCA Research, Harris, Democratic, Economics, Capital, Federal, Harris Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, bitcoin, BlackRock, Capital Economics, Fed Locations: China
And how should investors be thinking about future equity returns as the bull market enters its third year riding stellar multi-year performance and facing demanding valuations? So, expansionary policies that would quicken the economy's metabolism and produce more inflation was exactly what the market craved then – but now? Right now, the S & P 500 is up 42% from 18 months ago and fetches 22-times expected earnings. No reliable augurs of a coming bear market are in evidence: S & P up 10 of 11 months, making a new high in September, credit spreads resolutely narrow, all point to an upside bias over a span of months, at least. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Which leaves the question of just how much upside, if any, a bull should reasonably expect from here.
Persons: Warren Pies, Pat Tschosik, Ned Davis, Donald Trump, payrolls, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, 3Fourteen Research, Trump, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Dow, Leuthold, quicken, Wall Locations: U.S, China, Wells
What's more, many pharmacies serve as a convenient destination for all sorts of essentials, from aspirin to mascara. Big chains like Walgreens and CVS make their money in two main ways: selling prescriptions in the back of their stores and selling everyday goods out front. As Walgreens and CVS stores have proliferated over the past decade or so, many of their locations are basically right on top of each other. On the other end of the business, pharmacies are expensive to run. In the current landscape of commoditized pharmacies, there's no such thing as personalized service.
Persons: What's, Elizabeth Anderson, Neil Saunders, nilly, they've, Douglas Hoey, Jason Goldberg, Waits, Duane Reade, Brian Tanquilut, I've, Goldberg, Saunders, I'm, Nick Fabrizio, Steven Anderson, Fabrizio, Emily Stewart Organizations: Walgreens, CVS, Rite, Evercore ISI, Walmart, National Community Pharmacists Association, Express, Groupe, Jefferies, MTV, Cornell University, National Association of Chain Drug, Business Locations: mascara
China's Ministry of Finance, pictured here in Beijing in 2021, is refunding taxes and cutting fees to support economic growth. China's Finance Minister Lan Fo'an is set to hold a press conference at 10 a.m. on Saturday local time on "intensifying" fiscal stimulus policies, the country's State Council Information Office said. Authorities are likely to affirm that at the press conference on Saturday, Zhao said. At the time, Chinese major indexes began to rally, surging over 25% as investors cheered on the slate of stimulus measures. Lan Fo'an, China's Minister of Finance, attends a press conference during the second session of the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing on March 6, 2024.
Persons: Cong, Lan Fo'an, NDRC, Zheng Shanjie, Chen Zhao, CNBC's, Zhao, Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley, Wang Zhao Organizations: of Finance, Bloomberg, Getty, China's Finance, Beijing, Investors, National Development, Reform, Authorities, China's Ministry, Finance, China's, National People's Congress, Afp Locations: Beijing, country's, Shanghai, Asia
A Trump win would pose risks to economic growth and inflation in Europe, ECB member Joachim Nagel says. Officials in Europe, for their part, are warily eyeing what a Donald Trump win would mean. Nagel's comments come just weeks before the US presidential election and follow previous warnings from ECB members about the potential impact of a Trump win. AdvertisementBack in January, ECB president Christine Lagarde said a Trump win is "clearly a threat" to Europe considering the policies he implemented during his first term in office. She pointed to Trump's tariffs, commitment to NATO, and climate change policies, which she said were misaligned with European interests.
Persons: Joachim Nagel, Nagel, , Donald Trump, Trump, he'd, " Nagel, there's, it's, Harris, Kamala Harris, Christine Lagarde Organizations: Trump, Service, European Central Bank Governing, Tuesday, Bloomberg, Federal, NATO Locations: Europe, Germany, Berlin, Italy, EU
TOKYO — Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Tuesday unveiled his cabinet as he seeks to heal party divisions and secure a national mandate with an Oct. 27 snap election. The 67-year-old former defense minister, who last week won a close-fought contest to lead the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), was confirmed earlier in the day as prime minister by parliament. In his victory speech on Friday, Ishiba spoke about the need to beef up Japan’s security after recent territorial incursions by Chinese and Russian military vessels. Five of the lawmakers who contested the leadership race with him have not been included in his government nor given key party jobs. But despite its troubles, the LDP, which has ruled Japan for most of the post-war era, remains likely to hold on to power in the upcoming election given Japan’s weak opposition.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Katsunobu Kato, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Shinzo, Sanae, Takeshi Iwaya, Gen Nakatani, Yoji, Ishiba, Yoshihiko Noda, , ” Noda Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, Washington, NATO, Nikkei, Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, NHK, LDP, Mainichi, Constitutional Locations: TOKYO, Tokyo, United States, China, Beijing, U.S, East Asia, North Korea, Russian, Japan
TOKYO, JAPAN - SEPTEMBER 06: Japanese former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks during a press conference at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan on September 06, 2024 in Tokyo, Japan. Ishiba and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi are the front runners in the race of the upcoming presidential election for the ruling Liberal Democratic party of Japan (LDP) according to recent polling. (Photo by Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images)Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Tuesday unveiled his cabinet as he seeks to heal party divisions and secure a national mandate with an Oct. 27 snap election. The 67-year-old former defence minister, who last week won a close-fought contest to lead the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), was confirmed earlier in the day as prime minister by parliament. Yoji Muto, a former junior minister, will take charge at the economy, trade and industry ministry.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Ishiba, Shinjiro Koizumi, Tomohiro Ohsumi, Katsunobu Kato, Yoshimasa Hayashi, Kato, Sanae, Takeshi Iwaya, Gen Nakatani, Yoji Organizations: Defense, Foreign, Club of Japan, Liberal Democratic, Liberal Democratic Party, Washington, NATO, Nikkei Locations: TOKYO, JAPAN, Tokyo, Japan, United States, China, Beijing, U.S, East Asia, North Korea, Russian
While it offered few clues on how to tackle economic difficulties, the meeting did provide further insight into a shake-up of high-level personnel over the past year. If past sessions are a guide, a more detailed report may be released in the following days, but for now, “the plenum communique is light on specifics,” Evans-Pritchard added. That came days after China released disappointing economic data for the second quarter of this year. Analysts say that the coming months could offer more details on how Xi plans to revive the economy. Emphasizing short-term economic policies is rare in the history of the third plenums, said Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN — China’s, Xi Jinping, Xi, , Julian Evans, Pritchard, Qin, Li Shangfu, Li Yuchao, Jinming, Evans, , ” Evans, Mao, Larry Hu Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Communist Party, Capital Economics, Central, Defense, Liberation Army Rocket Force, of America, National Bureau, Statistics, Analysts, Macquarie Group Locations: Hong Kong, party’s, Beijing, China, policymaking, outflows, United States, Mao China
New York CNN —US markets rose Monday as investors processed the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump over the weekend. The Dow rose 169 points, or 0.4%, paring its gains after hitting a fresh all-time high earlier in the session. The Republican Party’s campaign platform promises to “end Democrats’ unlawful and un-American crypto crackdown.”Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, the former president’s social media company, popped 35.6%. A Trump win in November likely means the preservation or expansion of tax cuts and increased tariffs. While economic growth sounds positive for the US, some investors worry that it could reaccelerate inflation.
Persons: Donald Trump, Bettors, Joe Biden, Morgan Stanley, , Trump, , Mark Malek Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow, Nasdaq, Trump, Republican Party’s, Trump Media & Technology Group, CNN, Federal Reserve, Siebert Financial Locations: New York
Euro rises after France's first-round vote, yen struggles
  + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The euro rose on Monday after the first round of France's snap election put the far-right in pole position, though by a smaller margin than projected, while a downgrade to Japan's first-quarter growth figures knocked the yen lower. "They (RN) have actually performed a little bit worse than what was expected," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The yen struggled to gain ground against a broadly weaker dollar, and was last 0.05% lower at 160.93 per dollar. That could lead to a cut to the Bank of Japan's growth forecasts in fresh quarterly projections due later this month and affect the timing of its next interest rate hike, analysts said. Elsewhere in Asia, the Chinese yuan - also a victim of stark interest rate differentials with the U.S. - was last 0.02% higher at 7.2981 per dollar in the offshore market.
Persons: Emmanuel Macron, Carol Kong, Michael Brown, CBA's Organizations: Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Reserve, New Zealand, Bank of, U.S Locations: Japan, Asia
Steady dollar sends yen to the brink of 160
  + stars: | 2024-06-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar was firm on Wednesday and trading on the precipice of the 160 yen barrier as investors turned cautious and counted down to the release of U.S. price data at the end of the week. The dollar was firm on Wednesday and trading on the precipice of the 160 yen barrier as investors turned cautious and counted down to the release of U.S. price data at the end of the week. The Australian dollar dipped 0.1% to $0.6640 and the New Zealand dollar similarly slipped to $0.6115, with small moves reflecting thin trade. Sterling was steady at $1.268, while bitcoin has recovered somewhat from a dip below $60,000 this week to trade at $61,668. "The yen moves more, and yuan moves are more controlled, but they seldom move in opposite directions," said Societe Generale strategist Kit Juckes.
Persons: Pat Bustamante, Lisa Cook, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, bitcoin, Kit Juckes Organizations: Canadian, Westpac, Federal, Fed, New Zealand, Citi, Sterling, Generale Locations: Asia, U.S, China
U.S. questions China's no-first-use nuclear call given buildup
  + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Referring also to Russia, Jenkins said China's nuclear buildup "raises the specter that United States may soon face two expansionary and significantly nuclear-armed peers." "Beijing's development of a larger, more diverse nuclear arsenal is deeply concerning, and raises questions about the trajectory of the PRC nuclear weapons program," she said. Jenkins was asked about China's call in February for states with the largest nuclear arsenals to negotiate a treaty on no-first-use of nuclear weapons against each other or to make a political statement in this regard. She said it was the first time the U.S. had heard such a proposal from China, underscoring the need for nuclear talks. "Our questions are, quite frankly, how does an idea for no-first-use really fit within their ongoing process of building up nuclear weapons?
Persons: Bonnie Jenkins, Jenkins, specter, hadn't Organizations: Senate Foreign Relations Locations: China, Washington, U.S, People's Republic of China, Russia, States
Oil climbs as Gaza tensions rise, Saudi Arabia hikes prices
  + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A view of oil-well in action during sunset at Elk Hills Oil Field as gas prices on the rise in California, United States on April 14, 2024. Oil futures climbed on Monday after Saudi Arabia hiked June crude prices for most regions and as the prospect of a Gaza ceasefire deal appeared slim, renewing fears the Israel-Hamas conflict could still widen in the key oil-producing region. Brent crude futures were up 77 cents, or 0.9%, to $83.73 a barrel at 1055 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $78.98 a barrel, up 87 cents, or 1.1%. The geopolitical risk premium in oil prices also eased as talks for a Gaza ceasefire were underway. Also supporting oil was Saudi Arabia's move to raise the official selling prices (OSPs) for its crude sold to Asia, Northwest Europe and the Mediterranean in June, signaling expectations of strong demand this summer.
Persons: Brent, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, IG Locations: Elk, California, United States, Saudi Arabia, Gaza, Israel, Rafah, Saudi, Asia, Northwest Europe, China
The US economic expansion should continue in the months ahead, assuming there are no major external shocks, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the US economy, is still positive, and job gains have been robust. AdvertisementDespite his generally upbeat outlook, however, Stiglitz is concerned about a number of risks. 4 economic risks to watchThe first is that economic slowdowns happening elsewhere could seep into the US. Congress could shut down again, we might not get some of the necessary bills that we need to continue government," Stiglitz said.
Persons: Joseph Stiglitz, we've, Stiglitz, Brent, Mike Johnson, Trump, Putin Organizations: Service, Columbia University, Conference, Business, Republican Locations: Europe, China, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Taiwan, Eastern Europe
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