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☆ The biggest pressing market questions with two months to go in rewarding year
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-26 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

And how should investors be thinking about future equity returns as the bull market enters its third year riding stellar multi-year performance and facing demanding valuations? So, expansionary policies that would quicken the economy's metabolism and produce more inflation was exactly what the market craved then – but now? Right now, the S & P 500 is up 42% from 18 months ago and fetches 22-times expected earnings. No reliable augurs of a coming bear market are in evidence: S & P up 10 of 11 months, making a new high in September, credit spreads resolutely narrow, all point to an upside bias over a span of months, at least. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Which leaves the question of just how much upside, if any, a bull should reasonably expect from here.

Persons: Warren Pies, Pat Tschosik, Ned Davis, Donald Trump, payrolls, Harris, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, 3Fourteen Research, Trump, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Dow, Leuthold, quicken, Wall Locations: U.S, China, Wells

☆ Bitcoin is sending a warning that the stock market is about to sell off, Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bitcoin's 10% sell-off since June 7 signals a warning for the broader stock market. AdvertisementBitcoin's 10% sell-off since June 7 is sending a warning sign to the broader stock market, according to Stifel strategist Barry Bannister. Bitcoin's inability to hit new record highs suggests the stock market is likely to play catch-up as it's set to decline in line with the cryptocurrency, according to the note. Bannister isn't the only analyst on Wall Street taking stock market cues from bitcoin. AdvertisementAdding to Bannister's conviction of an imminent stock market sell-off is the Federal Reserve, which could keep interest rates higher for longer to combat still-elevated inflation.

Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister, —, bitcoin, Bannister isn't, Katie Stockton, Stockton, " Bannister Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Nvidia, Apple, Wall, Fairlead, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Big Tech

☆ Recent data has confirmed Fed Chair Powell's dovishness, says Fundstrat's Mark Newton
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecent data has confirmed Fed Chair Powell's dovishness, says Fundstrat's Mark NewtonMark Newton, Fundstrat global head of technical strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, technical trends, state of the economy, Treasury yields outlook, and more.

Persons: Powell's dovishness, Fundstrat's Mark Newton Mark Newton

☆ S&P 500 rises to 20-month high with a soft landing in sight. Can investors finally relax?
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-09 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The S & P 500 , which had consolidated with a low-volatility sideways slide for three weeks, nudged to a new 20-month high just above 4600, almost precisely a 20% year-to-date gain. Just because the S & P 500 is at 4600 and Federal-funds futures markets project high odds of several rate cuts next year, it doesn't mean the former is reliant on the latter. Yet — just relax — in seven of the past 12 years, the S & P 500 went on to surpass this year-ahead analyst composite target. It's pretty popular to cast doubt on the achievability of the consensus 11.8% forecast S & P 500 earnings growth for 2024. A broadening beyond 2023's growth leadership is necessary for further S & P 500 gains.

Persons: YTD, Jerome Powell, Powell, John Butters, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Fed, Bank of America, Wall, Merck, Pfizer, Citi, Treasury

☆ Morning Bid: Treasuries on cusp of best month since 2008
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Let's start with Treasuries because, if this were sports, we'd be calling it a comeback for the ages. Now, with some encouraging hints from Fed officials, 10-year notes are poised to celebrate their best month since the 2008 global crash, with yields down 61 basis points for November so far. Yields on two-year paper are down 31 bps just this week, the steepest drop since the U.S. mini-banking crisis in March. The European Union has inflation data of its own later on Thursday and analysts suspect the risks are for a downside surprise following subdued readings from Germany and Spain. The dollar index looks set for its worst month since November last year, with a loss so far of 3.7%.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Wayne Cole, Let's, we'd, Governor Waller, dovishness, Powell, Williams, Lagarde, Greene, Governor Bunge, Edmund Klamann Organizations: U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, Fed New, European Union, China PMI, BoE Monetary, CPI, PPI, Chicago PMI, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Wayne, U.S, Germany, Spain, China, BoE, EU, Chicago

Funds' $10 billion net long dollar position in the week ending Nov. 7 was the biggest bullish bet on the greenback since October last year and a huge turnaround from the net short position worth more than $20 billion in mid-July. The last decade has shown that CFTC funds' net dollar positions tend to be long-term, directional trades held for at least a year, the longest of which was the net long from May 2013 through June 2017. But this time may be different - funds have only been net long dollars for nine weeks. The long dollar liquidation in the week to Nov. 14 was mostly against the euro and Japanese yen. Funds expanded their net long euro position by $2.9 billion, or nearly 21,000 contracts, the sixth increase in a row and the biggest since July.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, that's, Morgan, Jamie McGeever, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Futures Trading Commission, Traders, Reuters, Funds, Bank of Japan, FX, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida

☆ The housing market is loosening up as mortgage rates sink, but 'window of opportunity could be narrow'
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The housing market is loosening up as supply climbs and home prices drop, Redfin said. "I'm advising buyers to lock in a mortgage rate as soon as they drop to a number where they can make the math work." AdvertisementAdvertisementThe housing market is loosening up as mortgage rates have tumbled, but it doesn't necessarily guarantee lasting relief for buyers, Redfin said. In the last week, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate notched its biggest weekly drop in over a year, sliding from 7.86% to 7.61%. Though mortgage rates are still near 23-year highs, these adjustments are enough to trim a few hundred dollars of a monthly payment, Redfin said.

Persons: Redfin, —, Hal Bennett, homebuyers, Lisa Cook Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve

☆ Relentless climb in Treasury yields may have further to run after surging to 5%
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( David Randall | Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. “That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ’ ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, ”, Gennadiy Goldberg, ” Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, “ Organizations: YORK, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal, Economic, of New, REUTERS, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine

Still, some traders interpreted his comments as an endorsement of keeping rates around current levels through most of next year. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which move inversely to bond prices, rose briefly to 5% late on Thursday, a closely watched level not seen since 2007. "That gives people the go ahead to take rates above 5%.”Whiteley said that he sees 10-year yields moving as high as 5.5% before peaking. An extended climb in Treasury yields risks exacerbating the pressures that have dogged a broad array of assets in recent months. Still, even if the Fed cuts rates over the next few years, yields could stay above 5% if inflation and growth remain high, he said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Stocks, ”, Greg Whiteley, ” Whiteley, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Powell, Sameer Samana, Alan Rechtschaffen, Rechtschaffen, Robert Tipp, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies Organizations: Economic, of New, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, New York Economic, Fed, TD Securities, Wells, Investment Institute, UBS Global Wealth Management, Tipp, Thomson Locations: of New York, New York City, U.S, DoubleLine

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. If the yield on the 10-year note, last at 4.296%, crosses 4.338%, it would hit its highest level since 2007. Investors are now keenly waiting for comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday at a meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole in Wyoming that begins on Aug. 24. "The Jackson Hole symposium will be key to assess Powell's dovishness meter. Nvidia earnings will be a major test for this year's stock market rally, which has been fueled by optimism around the potential for artificial intelligence.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Charu Chanana, Amruta Khandekar, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Alto, Broadcom Futures, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Strong, Reserve, Federal, Saxo Markets, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Traders, HSBC, Dow e, Palo Alto Networks, CrowdStrike Holdings, VMware, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Jackson, Wyoming

☆ Gold prices range-bound as traders focus on central bank decisions
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A worker handles an Argor-Heraeus SA one kilogram gold bar at Solar Capital Gold Zrt. arranged in Budapest, HungaryGold prices held steady on Monday as investors awaited a U.S. Federal Reserve meeting this week where the central bank could signal a pause in interest rate hikes from July. Spot gold was little changed at $1,960.01 per ounce by 0536 GMT, while U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $1,961.80. With a Fed rate hike in the July meeting nearly certain, "a positive outlook for gold revolves around central bank buying to drive long-term gold prices," said Michael Langford, chief investment officer at Scorpion Minerals. Along with the Fed, the European Central Bank, or ECB, and the Bank of Japan are also meeting this week.

Persons: Michael Langford, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Tim Waterer Organizations: Heraeus SA, Solar, Federal Reserve, Scorpion Minerals, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, KCM Trade, UBS Locations: Budapest, Hungary, U.S

The euro rose 0.8% against the crown to 11.401, set for its biggest one-day gain since early March. The dollar, which traded down 0.7% against the crown before the Riksbank's decision, was up 0.4% at 10.347. Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.4% against the dollar to $1.1019 and the pound rose 0.38% $1.2457 both rebounding from slightly larger falls a day earlier. However, "the broader spillover impact looks limited - other regional bank shares have held up better - and the market sees it as an isolated incident. The dollar slid 0.2% against the yen to 133.45.

Britain and Norway hiked rates by 25 bps each, the Swiss National Bank jacked up rates by 50 bps. The European Central Bank hiked rates by 50 bps a week ago. ClearBridge strategist Jeffrey Schluze said, European banking regulation since the global financial crisis has been more stringent than in the United States, making the outlook for European lenders relatively strong. While banking stocks have been battered globally, the S&P 500 is up 0.5% this month (.SPX), while Europe's STOXX 600 index down 3.2% (.STOXX). CHANGE IN TONEBefore the banking turmoil, markets were driven by one-way moves as high inflation pressured U.S. and European markets.

☆ Take Five: A manic March
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Another dose of hot job growth after January's payrolls increase of 517,000 trounced estimates could stoke fears of more hawkish Fed action. Powell has said the January jobs report showed why the battle against inflation will "take quite a bit of time". Powell's comments and the jobs data could help settle what the Fed does later this month. The RBA hinted at further tightening at its meeting last month, but data since then has pointed the other way. After a red-hot January rally, bonds and equities retreated in February as strong data sparked concerns about more rate hikes.

☆ The Fed and a big jobs report could drive the market in the week ahead, as investors watch rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-03 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The seesaw-like tension between interest rates and stock prices should remain in play in the week ahead, as investors focus on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the February employment report. There are few earnings in the week ahead, so economic data will likely be a main driver for stocks, along with the comments from Powell. The futures market is pricing in a high chance for a quarter point, or 25 basis point hike in March. Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: WW International, ThredUp, Trip.com, Lordstown Motor, Ciena, Grindr 10:00 a.m. Initial claims 10:00 a.m. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr Friday Earnings: Embraer 8:30 a.m. Employment report 2:00 p.m. Federal budget

☆ Analysis: Japan's yen feels the heat from hard-line BOJ policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Speculators have looked instead to the yen, an easier target where their bets on BOJ policy have induced massive swings and historic levels of volatility. BIGGER YEN BETSAnalysts expect bets on the BOJ soon abandoning its yield curve control policy will get bigger and louder, for a number of reasons. James Athey, an investment director at fund manager abrdn, has held a long position on the yen for a while. We had a significant overweight on the Japanese yen, (and) in the aftermath, we took profit on some of our yen position," Athey said. "The debate around the future of BOJ policy is far from settled," said Howard Smith, partner and portfolio manager at Indus Japan Strategies.

☆ The S&P 500 could fall another 22% and investors' view of more downside for stocks is too mild, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 could sink by more than investors anticipate, Morgan Stanley warned on Monday. Investors see the S&P 500 sitting at 3,500-3,600. The S&P 500 tumbled 19% in 2022 but has been pushing higher as 2023 trade gets underway. The S&P 500 was pushing its rally into a second consecutive session on Monday, up by more than 1% to around 3,945. "The bottom line, we don't think a 3,500-3,600 S&P 500 is consistent with the consensus view for a mild recession.

The Bank of Japan delivers the last G7 central bank policy decision of the year on Tuesday, and those hoping that a traditional dose of BOJ dovishness will ease the selling pressure currently slamming world markets may be disappointed. To be sure, the BOJ will almost certainly keep its key interest rate at an ultra-loose -0.10% and maintain its 'yield curve control' policy, but the winds of change are starting to blow. A hawkish turn from the BOJ would put a year-end rebound even further out of reach for world stocks. China's central bank, meanwhile, is likely to keep benchmark lending rates unchanged for a fourth straight month on Tuesday, although expectations for monetary easing are rising. Three key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Japan policy decision- China policy decision- RBA meeting minutesReporting by Jamie McGeever in Orlando, Fla.; Editing by Deepa BabingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Fed Chair Powell is having a communication problem with the market
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

No matter what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tells market participants these days, it seems they only hear the good stuff. Two recent examples: First in July, when Powell hinted that smaller interest rate hikes could be on the way. Chair Powell is really trying to message the fact that the fed funds rate has to be restrictive to tamp down inflation. A month and a half later, Powell delivered an uncharacteristically terse speech at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming summit. One more chance So Powell heads into next week's Federal Open Market Committee meeting with another opportunity to set the market straight.

"There's a growing perceived chance that the Fed will be the last major central bank to throw in the towel and arrest its tightening cycle," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING. U.S. payrolls data released later on Friday will provide the latest indication of the health of the U.S. economy. In contrast, Friday data showed euro zone business activity contracted last month at the fastest pace since late 2020. CHINA HOPESFriday's 'risk on' move in currencies, as well as commodity and share markets, followed reports China could relax its anti-COVID restrictions, which have been hobbling economic activity. "CNH (the yuan traded offshore) will tell you if investors are running hot or cold in China markets.

☆ Yuan jumps, dollar pauses, sterling claws back some ground
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The offshore yuan jumped more than 1% in the Asia session to a one-week peak of 7.2441 per dollar, and last traded 7.2621. But traders said the most potent boost to the yuan came from speculation that China could relax anti-COVID restrictions,which have been hobbling economic activity. And as is typically the case, this type of 'risk on' move indicated by the yuan will have a magnetic attraction across Asia markets." The Australian dollar rose 0.86% to $0.6342, further buoyed by the positive sentiment on China, as the Aussie is often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan. DOLLAR DOMINANCEFed rate futures now point to a terminal rate of about 5.15% by mid-2023, after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point this week.

☆ Fed delivers fourth 75 bp hike, signals scale-back coming
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

This statement clearly suggests input from Vice Chair Brainard and opens the door for the Fed to slow down the pace of future rate hikes. Monetary policy today is not sufficiently tight enough. We’ll know when the Fed is done tightening; they’ll tell us by simply saying that monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive. “The last thing we need to see regarding what the Fed will do in the short run is the election. If there’s a sense that fiscal policy will be more cooperative with monetary policy, it will make the Fed’s job easier.”Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bitcoin falls to start the week as investors look ahead to inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bitcoin fell to its lowest level in over a week on Monday as investors continued to digest strong jobs data from Friday that pushed risk assets including cryptocurrencies even deeper into the red. I also expect significant volatility on Thursday, with a move up or down depending on the inflation figure." Investors watch these updates closely for clues about the Federal Reserve's next move in its fight to bring down inflation. "Key data points to watch out for this week will be the CPI data beat/miss on Wednesday and the FOMC minutes, a whiff of dovishness is likely to be supportive for crypto assets." Despite the anxiety hanging over investors, cryptocurrencies' volatility has been uncharacteristically low in recent weeks, though its correlation with stocks remains positive.

☆ Dollar towering, stocks cowering as Fed hikes higher
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

read moreS&P 500 futures were down 0.6% and the dollar was flying in early trade. The dollar index hit a 20-year high of 111.65 and the greenback's strength sent the Aussie, kiwi and Canadian dollars down to fresh multi-year lows. The Fed raised rates sharply, by 75 basis points, on Wednesday - the third such rise in a row. The yen is down about 20% on the dollar this year and at 144.29 per dollar is near a 24-year low. The U.S. dollar index hit a 20-year peak of 111.63 in the wake of the Fed hike.

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