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☆ Dollar hits one-month peak to yen as Fed seen taking time with rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The euro languished not far from a three-week trough reached in the previous session, after normally hawkish European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel took a dovish tone on inflation, cementing bets for a rate cut this month. Currently, traders lay 34.6% odds of another 50 basis-point U.S. rate cut on Nov. 7, after the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a super-sized reduction last month. "I do think that if the payrolls report overall is not too shabby tomorrow night, then we will see that pricing (for a 50 basis-point cut) coming in quite significantly." The dollar added 0.09% to 146.575 yen after earlier reaching 146.885 for the first time since Sept. 3. The euro was little changed at $1.10455, sitting not far from Wednesday's low of $1.10325, a level last seen on Sept. 12.

Persons: European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel, Ray Attrill, Attrill, Asahi Noguchi, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Private U.S, ADP, Fed, National Australia Bank, Dovish Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel

☆ Dollar nurses losses after another set of soft jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was trading at 155.39 yen , down from highs of 155.95 hit in the previous session. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was flat at 105.25. "We note jobless claims are weekly data that can be very volatile from week to week," Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Joseph Capurso, said in a note. "The BoE's urgency and willingness to cut ahead of the Fed will continue to weigh on the currency," Goh said. Being added to the list makes it harder for U.S. suppliers to ship to the targeted entities.

Persons: Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Joseph Capurso, Shunichi Suzuki, Rong Ren Goh, Sterling, BoE, Goh Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, dovish Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's, Tokyo, Japan's Finance, Eastspring Investments, Bank of England, Monetary, Committee, Fed, Treasury, Traders, PPI, Federal Locations: U.S, United States

☆ Morning Bid: Edgy market calm after worst day of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. World stocks captured by MSCI's all-country index (.MIWD0000PUS) recorded their worst day of the year so far - dropping 1.69%. The yen fell back again but the dollar/yen rate remained below Thursday's 2023 high of 148.45. The pound hit its lowest level since March and 10-year British gilt yields fell to their lowest level since July. Elsewhere, oil prices nudged higher again on Friday as concerns that a Russian ban on fuel exports could tighten global.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan Punch, Rupert Murdoch, Lisa Cook, Susan Collins, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Treasury, Sterling, of, Activision Blizzard, Markets Authority, Ubisoft, Cisco Systems, Cisco, Fox Corp, News Corp, JPMorgan, Federal Reserve, Boston, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Australia, Britain, United States, India

☆ Dollar shines on U.S. economic resilience, Aussie tumbles after employment data
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Hundred dollar bills are seen in this photo illustraiton in Warsaw, Poland on Sept. 21, 2022. The Australian dollar tumbled after the country's July employment unexpectedly fell while its jobless rate ticked up more than expected. The Aussie sank nearly 1% after the release of the figures, dragging the New Zealand dollar alongside it. "We've got the U.S. staying really resilient still, under the weight of high interest rates," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, or CBA. "We expect 25-basis-point rate hikes in both September and November, for a peak policy rate of 5.75%," said Wells Fargo economist Nick Bennenbroek of the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook.

Persons: homebuilding, We've, Carol Kong, Kong, Wells, Nick Bennenbroek, Matt Simpson, there's, CBA's Organizations: dovish Bank of Japan, Aussie, New Zealand, U.S, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Fed, FX, Bank of England, Bank, Australian, Zealand, Reserve Bank of Australia, People's Bank of China, The U.S Locations: Warsaw, Poland, Asia, Japan, China, CBA's Kong, The

☆ Dollar shines on US economic resilience; Aussie tumbles after employment data
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Australian dollar tumbled after the country's July employment unexpectedly fell while its jobless rate ticked up more than expected. The Aussie sank nearly 1% after the release of the figures, dragging the New Zealand dollar alongside it. The yen bottomed out at 146.565 per dollar in early Asia trade, its lowest level since November, having come under renewed pressure as a result of interest rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan. "We've got the U.S. staying really resilient still, under the weight of high interest rates," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). "We expect 25-basis-point rate hikes in both September and November, for a peak policy rate of 5.75%," said Wells Fargo economist Nick Bennenbroek of the Bank of England's monetary policy outlook.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, homebuilding, We've, Carol Kong, Kong, Wells, Nick Bennenbroek, Matt Simpson, there's, CBA's, Rae Wee, Gerry Doyle Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, dovish Bank of Japan, Aussie, New Zealand, U.S, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Fed, FX, Bank of England, Bank, Zealand, Reserve Bank of Australia, People's Bank of China, The U.S, Thomson Locations: Asia, Japan, China, CBA's Kong, The

Versus the yen the dollar fell 0.28% to 138.36 yen per dollar, after touching its lowest against the Japanese currency in two months on Friday. ,"The FX market is front running possible normalisation of Fed policy in 2024," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone in Melbourne. "The question then is whether the dollar sell-off has gone too far and we are at risk of mean reversion early this week." The Swedish and Norwegian crowns continued to climb after making gains of more than 5% on the dollar last week. The Swedish crown rose 0.2% to 10.2360 against the dollar, the Norwegian crown rose instead 0.4% to 10.0160.

Persons: Francesco Pesole, Chris Weston, Carol Kong, Sharp, Joice Alves, Tom Westbrook, Angus MacSwan, Andrew Heavens Organizations: ING, Federal Reserve, Fed, European Central Bank, Pepperstone, U.S, New Zealand, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, dovish Bank of, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, U.S, Germany, Europe, Melbourne, dovish Bank of Japan, Norwegian, London, Sydney

☆ Dollar licks wounds as policy peak looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The euro , which jumped 2.4% last week to a 16-month high, held just below that peak at $1.1223. The yen , also up 2.4% last week, held at 138.56 per dollar. The Australian and New Zealand dollars pulled back slightly, with the Aussie last at $0.6821 - off last week's peak of $0.6895 - and the kiwi down 0.2% at $0.6355 after hitting a five-month high of $0.6412 on Friday. The Swedish and Norwegian crowns made gains of more than 5% on the dollar last week, and have paused for breath. "By then other major central banks including the ECB will also likely have reached their peak policy rates ... interest rate dynamics may therefore swing back in favour of the dollar."

Persons: Carol Kong, Chris Weston, Sharp, Jane Foley, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Stephen Coates Organizations: SYDNEY, New Zealand, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Pepperstone, U.S, dovish Bank of Japan, ECB, Thomson Locations: Europe, Melbourne, Asia

☆ Dollar licks wounds as China data looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The euro , which jumped 2.4% last week to a 16-month high, held just below that peak at $1.1228. The yen , also up 2.4% last week, held at 138.69 per dollar. "The FX market is front running possible normalisation of Fed policy in 2024," said Chris Weston, head of research at broker Pepperstone in Melbourne. "The question then is whether the dollar sell-off has gone too far and we are at risk of mean reversion early this week." The Swedish and Norwegian crowns made gains of more than 5% on the dollar last week.

Persons: Chris Weston, Sharp, Jane Foley, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes Organizations: SYDNEY, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Pepperstone, U.S, New Zealand, dovish Bank of Japan, ECB, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, Melbourne, Asia

The MSCI's broad gauge of world stocks ticked 0.2% higher, (.MIWD00000PUS), with Wall Street markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday. After a week in which the stock market cheered the Fed's decision to skip a rate increase in June, Powell is scheduled to deliver congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. Billions of dollars have flowed into big tech in recent weeks, with analysts citing the productivity-improving potential of artificial intelligence for the rally. "The obvious narrative of AI has dominated this rally in tech stocks," said Dan Cartridge, portfolio manager at Hawksmoor. The 10-year British gilt yield stood at 4.462%, in an inverted yield curve pattern that can precede recessions.

Persons: BoE, Jerome Powell, Powell, Hawksmoor, Hong, HSI, Goldman Sachs, Brent, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Tom Hogue, Gerry Doyle, Emma Rumney Organizations: Nikkei, Global, . Federal, Wall, Bank of England, Japan's Nikkei, People's Bank of, Friday's dovish Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, SYDNEY, Europe, U.S, Asia, Beijing, People's Bank of China

The MSCI's broad gauge of world stocks was steady (.MIWD00000PUS), with Wall Street markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday. After a week in which the stock market cheered the Fed's decision to skip a rate increase in June, Powell is scheduled to deliver congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday. "The obvious narrative of AI has dominated this rally in tech stocks," said Dan Cartridge, portfolio manager at Hawksmoor. "But a lot of it is also to do with interest rate expectations," he added, warning that the Fed staying hawkish would mean "we quite quickly see valuation compression again." Two-year British government bond yields , which reflect rate expectations, added 6 basis points (bps) to around 4.94% - near last week's 15-year high.

Persons: 25bps, Jerome Powell, Powell, Hawksmoor, Hong, HSI, Goldman Sachs, Brent, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Christopher Cushing, Tom Hogue, Gerry Doyle Organizations: of England, Nikkei, Global, . Federal, Wall, Bank of England, Japan's Nikkei, People's Bank of, Friday's dovish Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: China, SYDNEY, Europe, U.S, Asia, Beijing, People's Bank of China

☆ Yen sinks to 15-year low vs euro, Aussie jumps as central banks diverge
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen continued its steep descent on Tuesday, reaching a 15-year low to the euro, as the implications of a steadfastly dovish Bank of Japan continued to reverberate days after the decision. FILE PHOTO: Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationMeanwhile, the Aussie dollar leapt to a one-week high after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised with a rate hike and signalled more tightening may come. The central bank lifted the cash rate to 3.85% and said “some further” tightening may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe. The European Central Bank (ECB), meanwhile, is widely expected to raise rates for a seventh straight meeting the following day, with a 50 basis-point increase on the table.

☆ Yen sinks to 15-year low vs euro as dovish BOJ contrasts with ECB
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen continued its steep descent on Tuesday, reaching a 15-year low to the euro, as the implications of a steadfastly dovish Bank of Japan kept foreign exchange markets busy engaging in so called ‘carry-trades’. FILE PHOTO: Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The euro was steady at 150.965 yen after earlier touching 151.03 for the first time since September 2008. The greenback was about flat at 137.375 yen, and earlier rose to 137.58 for the first time since March 8. At the RBA, traders are laying 87% odds for no change to policy, although about 11 bps of tightening is priced for the August meeting.

☆ Asian shares stutter, dollar buoyant as data supports hawkish Powell
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.2% on Thursday, extending a drop of 1.4% the previous session. S&P 500 futures eased 0.1% and Nasdaq futures were off 0.3%Inflation data out of China showed on Thursday that domestic demand still remained tepid. The U.S. dollar index, measuring the greenback's value against a basket of major peers, hovered close to a three-month top at 105.6. The central bank on Wednesday left its key overnight interest rate on hold, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its monetary tightening campaign. On Thursday, the two-year Treasury yields held close to its 15 year highs at 5.0553%, while the benchmark 10-year yields were steady at 3.9775%.

☆ Dollar powers through, eyes best year since 2015
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, has surged more than 8% this year, the most since 2015. "I expect the king dollar to lose its crown and the dollar to make a more decisive turn by the middle of next year," Bank of Singapore currency strategist Moh Siong Sim said. It has fallen more than 13% year to date, its worst performance since 2013. The single currency had dipped below parity against the dollar earlier this year for the first time in almost two decades. The kiwi , which has fallen more than 7% year to date, the worst since 2015, slipped 0.31% to $0.6330.

☆ Dollar eyes best year since 2015; Fed rate path, China reopening to set tone
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, has surged more than 8% this year, the most since 2015. But expectations that the central bank may not have to raise rates as high as previously feared have caused the greenback to unwind its towering rally. Conversely, an ultra-dovish Bank of Japan in the face of a hawkish Fed, has spelled pain for the Japanese yen . Policymakers from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England have signalled more rate hikes to come next year, in a bid to tame inflation even at the risk of hurting their economies. "The issue is whether the rapid reopening (in China) triggers fresh waves in some countries or regions, and that may lead to fresh restrictions.

☆ Take Five: Keeping the lights on
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/PICKING A (JAPANESE) PIVOTEven the uber-dovish Bank of Japan has not been spared from investors trying to pick central bank pivot points. France is striving to avert power cuts, and Germany is bleeding cash to keep the lights on. Thursday has meetings scheduled for Indonesia - where the central bank has just seen growth added to its mandate - as well as Egypt, which is in line for support from the International Monetary Fund. Expectations of a softer dollar as the U.S. economy slows have sparked optimism about emerging markets, which should also benefit from China easing COVID-19 restrictions. Emerging markets interest ratesCompiled by Karin Strohecker, Graphics by Sumanta Sen and Vincent Flasseur, editing by Barbara LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ A More Dovish Bank of England Still Wants a Recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Jon Sindreu | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Bank of England Thursday announced an increase in its key rate to 3%. Judging by the Bank of England’s gloomy economic forecasts, U.K. interest rates won’t go as high as the market expects. Unfortunately for investors, the central bank also seems set to mostly ignore its own forecasts. On Thursday, the BOE announced an increase in its key rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 3%—the highest level of borrowing costs since 2008. This comes a day after the Federal Reserve raised rates by the same amount, warning that they could go higher than previously expected.

☆ Bank of England set for biggest rate hike in 33 years, but economists expect dovish tilt
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

New Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has scrapped the controversial tax cuts at the heart of predecessor Liz Truss' fiscal policy agenda, meaning fiscal and monetary policy are no longer pulling in opposite directions. Deutsche Bank also expects a split vote on Thursday in favor of a 75-basis-point hike, taking the key interest rate to 3%. Deutsche Bank now expects the Bank Rate to reach 4.5% by May next year, down from its previous projection of 4.75%, on account of retreating fiscal stimulus and a push toward fiscal consolidation. watch nowBank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Ben Broadbent said in a recent speech that GDP would take a "pretty material" hit from such aggressive policy tightening. The Bank's August growth forecasts, which already pointed to a five-quarter recession, were based on a much lower Bank Rate of around 3%.

☆ Analysis: Japan is chasing its tail on yen intervention
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Vidya Ranganathan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Banknotes of Japanese yen are seen in this illustration picture taken September 22, 2022. Thursday's sudden burst of yen-buying intervention by Japanese authorities -- the first instance since 1998 - caused a large 6 yen move between 140 and 146 in the dollar-yen exchange rate . U.S. policy rates are now 3 percentage points higher than Japan's. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda made clear that policy won't change, and even the yen the BOJ is buying as part of intervention will be replaced. while the boj intervened heavily between april and june 1998, the yen didn't trough until September.

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