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Dollar sitting pretty, yen bears wary of Bank of Japan hawks
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Yen bears were tense in case Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda used a speech later Monday to flag a possible rate hike in December, in part due to the weakness of the currency. Markets imply around a 55% chance of a quarter-point rate hike to 0.5% when the BOJ meets on Dec. 19. Against a basket of currencies the dollar held at 106.730, having touched a one-year top of 107.07 on Friday. The rally has coincided with a savage swing in 10-year Treasury yields, which have climbed 70 basis points since the start of October, fuelling a 5.4% rise in the U.S. dollar index . Analysts generally assume Trump's touted policies of tariffs, reduced immigration and debt-funded tax cuts will be inflationary, so limiting the scope for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Donald Trump's, Katsunobu Kato, Jonas Goltermann, Trump, Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald, Scott Bessent Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Japanese Finance, Capital Economics, Trump, Federal Reserve, Central Bankers Locations: U.S, Japan, Canada
Gold gains 1% as dollar rally stalls
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices rose on Monday after last week's sharp declines, as a rally in the dollar paused, while market participants awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for more clues on the U.S. interest rate path. Gold prices rose on Monday after last week's sharp declines, as a rally in the dollar paused, while market participants awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for more clues on the U.S. interest rate path. Spot gold firmed 1% to $2,587.49 per ounce by 0150 GMT, after falling to its worst week in more than three years on Friday. "Gold prices are due for a slight recovery following recent bout of hefty sell-offs and we may expect some drift higher with some rollover in the dollar," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. This has not been fully priced in by markets yet, so any need for recalibration may still pose an obstacle for gold."
Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Joe Biden's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Strong U.S Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Russia
Donald Trump's second presidency could help supercharge small cap stocks further, according to Fundstrat managing partner and head of research Tom Lee. "Since 1987 small caps traded on a median price-to-earnings [ratio] at a premium basis to the S & P 500, and the S & P 500 is at 17 times. I think small caps could over the next couple of years outperform by more than 100%," Lee told CNBC's " Squawk Box " on Friday. Lee is also bullish on equities more broadly, and doesn't limit his optimistic outlook to only small caps. He also forecast the S & P 500 could break above 6,000 before the end of the year and top 6,700 in 2025.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Tom Lee, Lee, CNBC's, Russell, Stocks, Trump's, haven't, FundStrat Organizations: Trump, U.S, Granny Shots, Tesla, Oracle
Firm dollar keeps peers on back foot ahead of BOE, Fed decisions
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Trump's policies on restricting illegal immigration, enacting new tariffs, lowering taxes and deregulation may boost growth and inflation and crimp the Fed's ability to cut rates. Following the election, markets now see about a 70% chance the Fed will also cut rates next month, down from 77% on Tuesday, according to the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. Anything less than a "dovish cut" from the Fed on Thursday could see traders trim back bets for a December cut and the dollar and yields rising higher, Simpson added. The yen was up 0.22% at 154.30 per dollar, after touching 154.7 on Wednesday, its lowest against the greenback since July 30. The Riksbank is seen easing by 50 basis points, and the Norges Bank is set to stay on hold.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Matt Simpson, Trump, Treasuries, Simpson Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Trump, White, Index, Treasury, Fed, Republicans, CME, Bank of England, Norges Bank, Bitcoin Locations: U.S, Index ., cryptocurrencies
Gold holds steady as market awaits U.S. election outcome
  + stars: | 2024-11-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold held steady on Wednesday as investors keenly awaited the outcome of a tightly contested U.S. presidential race. Spot gold held its ground at $2,745.42 per ounce, as of 0218 GMT. Gold is considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties and tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment. Elsewhere, Perth Mint reported a decline in October gold sales, while silver sales slipped to their lowest in four months. Spot silver fell 0.53% to $32.49 per ounce, platinum shed 0.6% to $993.45 and palladium was down 2.17% to $1,052.25.
Persons: Gold, Republican Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Kyle Rodda, Jerome Powell's, Matt Simpson Organizations: Republican, D.C, Edison Research, Federal Reserve, Trump, Traders, Perth Mint Locations: Istanbul, Tuesday's U.S, Washington
Oversnap | E+ | Getty ImagesLONDON — Britons are facing the prospect of higher mortgage rates for longer after the government's tax-and-spend budget threw off expectations for a series of near-term interest rate cuts. Mortgage rates also took a hit from the uncertainty, with a number of smaller and mainstream lenders raising mortgage rates on the expectation that interest rates may stay higher for longer. watch nowVirgin Money became the first major lender to raise mortgage rates after the budget, lifting them by 0.15%. "This isn't the radical spike in rates that have blighted mortgage rates in the last couple of years. He added that interest rates could now remain 50-basis-points higher than previously expected at the end of the cutting cycle.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reeves, , David Hollingworth, Hollingworth, Allan Monks, BOE Organizations: Bank of England, Wednesday, Virgin Money, Santander, Morgan's Locations: London's, Oversnap
Australia's central bank keeps rates unchanged at 4.35%
  + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Australia's central bank held its benchmark interest rate at 4.35% for the eighth meeting in a row, in line with expectations from economists polled by Reuters. The central bank expects that the headline rate will increase as these measures expire. The RBA instead pointed at the underlying inflation rate in Australia. The "trimmed mean" came in at 3.5% in the the September quarter, which was still "some way" from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target. Externally, the bank added that "heightened geopolitical risks and potential changes to trade and fiscal policies abroad add to this uncertainty."
Organizations: Reuters, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Australia
The euro rose 0.4% to $1.0876 but faces resistance around $1.0905, while the dollar dipped 0.3% on the yen to 152.45 yen . Analysts believe Trump's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs would put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, while Harris was seen as the continuity candidate. "A Harris win and a split Congress would likely result in 'Trump trades' quickly reversed and priced out," he added. Uncertainty over the outcome is one reason markets assume the Federal Reserve will choose to cut rates by a standard 25 basis points on Thursday, rather than repeat its outsized half-point easing. Futures imply a 99% chance of a quarter-point cut to 4.50%-4.75%, and an 83% probability of a similar-sized move in December.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, Harris, Chris Weston, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Dealers, Trump, Reserve, of England, Norges Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Labor, China's National People's Congress, Reuters Locations: Asia, United States, Iowa, Treasuries, gilts, Beijing
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan predict relatively muted S&P 500 returns over the next decade. AdvertisementMuch has been said about the gloomy outlook for the S&P 500 that some of Wall Street's largest investment banks conveyed in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs said in October that the S&P 500 would return 3% annually, on average, over the next 10 years, underperforming current 10-year Treasury yields. Goldman Sachs"There is little argument that U.S. stock market valuations are elevated compared to historical averages. Investors appeared to do that, with the S&P 500 rising 0.4% on Friday to 5,728, 2.3% below all-time highs.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Lance Roberts, Roberts, , It's, Goldman, Sam Kuhn Organizations: JPMorgan, RIA, Service, Bank of America, RIA Advisors, Bureau of Labor Statistics Locations: Wall
Dollar steady as investors eye U.S. jobs report, election
  + stars: | 2024-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar steadied against major peers on Friday, as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report to confirm economic resiliency heading into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and a close-call U.S. presidential election next week. The dollar steadied against major peers on Friday, as investors awaited the U.S. jobs report to confirm economic resiliency heading into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting and a close-call U.S. presidential election next week. The U.S. dollar started November off at a lower level after coming under pressure against the yen and euro on Thursday. (Kazuo) Ueda's press conference," Morgan Stanley MUFG economists Takeshi Yamaguchi and Masayuki Inui wrote in a report on Thursday. The Fed's monetary policy decision next week comes just days after the U.S. presidential election on Tuesday.
Persons: Nonfarm, Tapas Strickland, Kazuo, Ueda's, Morgan Stanley, Takeshi Yamaguchi, Masayuki Inui, Sterling, Rachel Reeves, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump's Organizations: Federal, Bank of Japan, U.S ., Reuters, National Australia Bank, Gov, U.S, Republican, Democratic, Trump, Treasury, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates in September, with further reductions expected, could prove to be a boon for the emerging economies of Southeast Asia. David Sumual, chief economist of Bank Central Asia, said Indonesia is one such country that could take advantage of both short-term and long-term Fed policy. Higher rates in the U.S. have traditionally been a negative for emerging markets as U.S. investors typically send their dollars home in search of decent yields. But on the flipside, when U.S. rates ease, it can boost emerging markets who see renewed flows into their economies. Global commodities (a cornerstone of many emerging markets) also tend to rise in price as the U.S. dollar drops on a more dovish outlook by the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Saurabh Agarwal, Warburg Pincus, CNBC's, David Sumual Organizations: U.S, Federal, Warburg, Bank Central, CNBC, Federal Reserve Locations: Southeast Asia, Asia, Bank Central Asia, Indonesia, U.S
The yen touched a three-month low on Monday as Japan's ruling coalition lost its parliamentary majority and investors figured that would likely slow future interest rate hikes, while the dollar headed for a monthly gain on rising U.S. yields. On the dollar, the yen hit its weakest since late July at 153.3 in early-morning trade and it touched the same milestone at 165.36 to the euro . That was down from the 279 seats they held previously and marked the coalition's worst result since it briefly lost power in 2009. The U.S. dollar index has climbed 3.6% during October, its sharpest monthly rise since April 2022. The New Zealand dollar traded near a three-month low of $0.5974, down nearly 6% for the month.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba's, Komeito, Donald Trump, Sterling Organizations: Shigeru Ishiba's Liberal Democratic Party, NHK, Bank of Japan, Nomura, U.S, gilts, Australian, New Zealand Locations: Japan, U.S, Europe, Australia, China
Mārtiņš Kazāks, governor of the Bank of Latvia and a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, on Thursday weighed in on the possibility of a jumbo half-point interest rate cut for December. When asked for his views on a 50-basis rate cut by the ECB at its next meeting, he said that "everything should be on the table." "But we will have that discussion in December," he told CNBC's Karen Tso at the IMF's annual meetings in Washington, D.C. Thursday. His comments come after the ECB delivered a back-to-back interest rate cut for the first time in 13 years at its October meeting. It also comes a day after Portuguese central bank chief Mario Centeno made similar comments.
Persons: Mārtiņš Kazāks, CNBC's Karen Tso, , Mario Centeno, Centeno Organizations: Bank of, European Central Bank's Governing, ECB, CNBC Locations: Bank of Latvia, Washington ,, Portuguese
Fed outlook pushes dollar to 2-1/2 month peak; yen under pressure
  + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar hovered at a 2-1/2-month peak on Wednesday as investors adjusted bets toward a gradual reduction of interest rates while keeping an eye on a close presidential election race. The yen remained under pressure as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields marched higher, pushing it to a three-month low. That less dovish outlook for the Fed has helped buoy Treasury yields. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was last up 0.11% at 104.18 after ticking up to 104.19, its highest since Aug. 2. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields kept the heat on the yen which sank to a three-month low of 151.72 against the greenback.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, there's, Index's Simpson, Komeito, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Republican, Reuters, Democratic U.S, Markets, Trump, greenback, Liberal Democratic Party, of, European Central Bank Locations: Harris, U.S, Japan
Mike Kemp | In Pictures | Getty ImagesLONDON — The U.K. is likely to see interest rates drop at a faster pace than previously expected, according to economists who flagged key data releases that indicated inflationary pressures are finally easing. However, economists at Goldman Sachs in a Monday note forecast rate cuts "notably below market pricing." As a result, they see consecutive 25 basis point cuts taking the Bank Rate to 3% as early as September 2025, and to 2.75% in November next year. "Recent data have cemented expectations of another cut in interest rates in November. "That said, uncertainty around the economic outlook is high, and interest rate expectations will be sensitive to what the government announces in the Budget," Muir added.
Persons: Mike Kemp, Goldman Sachs, BOE, Price, , James Smith, Smith, David Muir, Muir, Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves Organizations: of England, Labour, Bank of England's, BOE policymakers, Bank of England, ING . Services, Reuters, International Energy Agency, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Moody's, Finance Locations: City of London, London, United Kingdom
Bitcoin at 3-month high as Trump odds drive currencies
  + stars: | 2024-10-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Cryptocurrency bitcoin hit a three-month high in early Asia trading on Monday and the dollar looked set to extend its gains in markets counting down to the U.S. presidential election in two weeks. Bitcoin got a lift from Trump's improving prospects since his administration is seen as taking a softer line on cryptocurrency regulation. The clearest way to express the Trump tariff risk was to be long dollars versus the euro, Swiss franc and Mexican peso , he said. Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, also noted that rising real interest rates were helping the dollar along, particularly against those three currencies. "We expect this trend to continue straight into the election and if Trump wins, likely well after the election as well," Bechtel wrote.
Persons: Cryptocurrency bitcoin, Donald Trump, Bitcoin, Chris Weston, Pepperstone, Weston, Brad Bechtel, Bechtel Organizations: U.S, Trump, China, BTC, Swiss, FX, Jefferies Locations: Asia, U.S
ECB'S 25-basis-point rate cut was 'quite OK,' economist says
  + stars: | 2024-10-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB'S 25-basis-point rate cut was 'quite OK,' economist saysCyrus De La Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, says European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde "sounded rather dovish."
Persons: Cyrus De La Rubia, Christine Lagarde Organizations: Hamburg Commercial Bank, Central Bank Locations: Hamburg
The onshore yuan ticked 0.06% higher to 7.1199 per dollar, while its offshore counterpart rose 0.12% to 7.1282. Data on Thursday showed U.S. retail sales growth was higher than expected and the ECB cut interest rates by 25 basis points. "All of that has played in to a stronger dollar," said Jason Wong, senior strategist at BNZ in Wellington. The New Zealand dollar was similarly eyeing a 0.75% fall for the week and was little changed at $0.6063 in the Asia session. The U.S. dollar index hit a 2-1/2 month high of 103.87 on Thursday and is up nearly 0.8% forthe week thus far.
Persons: Donald Trump, Ho Woei Chen, Jason Wong, There's, Yahya Sinwar, Israel's, Benjamin Netanyahu, Sterling Organizations: European Central Bank, People's Bank of China, Securities, Fund, Insurance, ECB, Reuters, Trump, New Zealand, Bank of England, U.S Locations: Asia, China, Wellington, U.S, Israel, Gaza
Dollar at over two-month high, yen near 150 per dollar
  + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar was perched at an over two-month high against major currencies on Tuesday, spurred by wagers the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest rate cuts in the near term, while the yen inched closer to the key 150 per dollar level. The U.S. dollar was perched at an over two-month high against major currencies on Tuesday, spurred by wagers the Federal Reserve will proceed with modest rate cuts in the near term, while the yen inched closer to the key 150 per dollar level. The U.S. central bank kicked off its easing cycle with an aggressive 50 basis points at its last policy meeting in September. The dollar got a lift after Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday called for "more caution" on interest rate cuts ahead, citing recent economic data. That has cast doubts over when Japan's central bank will next tighten policy.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Chris Weston, Kazuo Ueda, Shigeru Ishiba, Tony Sycamore Organizations: U.S, Reserve, European Central Bank, Fed, Traders, Boeing, Bank of Japan, New Zealand, Caixin Global, Treasury, IG, China National, Congress Locations: U.S, Japan, China
Investors should favor stocks over bonds as the economy supports risk-on sentiment, Goldman analysts say. The US economy is in a pro-risk, late-cycle environment due to Fed easing and a strong economy. AdvertisementRisk-on sentiment is back after a brief flight to safety over the summer, and that should support stocks over bonds in the coming months, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note Tuesday. AdvertisementFed cutting cycles in general tend to support risky assets as long as the economy avoids a recession, the analysts say. This risk-on, late-cycle backdrop means stocks will benefit from higher earnings growth and valuations as bonds face downside risks, the analysts say.
Persons: Goldman, , Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service Locations: China
European flags flutter in front of the European Central Bank (ECB) building prior to a news conference following the meeting of the governing council of the ECB in Frankfurt/Main, Germany, on September 12, 2024. Daniel Roland | Afp | Getty ImagesThe European Central Bank is on course to deliver its third interest rate cut of the year at its meeting this Thursday, as policymakers say inflation risks are easing faster than previously expected. Headline price rises in the euro area cooled to 1.8% in September, below the central bank's 2% target. Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau last week described an October rate cut as "very likely" and said such a step "won't be the last." This led him to forecast ECB rate cuts will take place both this week and at each of the central bank's forthcoming meetings, until the deposit rate hits 2.5%.
Persons: Daniel Roland, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Villeroy, Christine Lagarde, Joachim Nagel, Germany's Bundesbank, Jack Allen Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Afp, Getty, Bank of France, France, European Union, Citi, Media, U.S, U.S . Federal, Barclays, Capital Economics, Reynolds, Bank of America Global Research Locations: Frankfurt, Main, Germany, U.S .
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere are the 3 key themes driving a stronger U.S. Dollar right now: StrategistElias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman says the strength in U.S. economy, rising geopolitical tensions and risk-on sentiment in market given a dovish Fed and China stimulus will support the U.S. dollar.
Persons: Elias Haddad, Brown, Harriman Organizations: U.S . Locations: China
South Korea's central bank has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, the first rate cut from the BOK since the Federal Reserve started tightening its monetary policy in March 2022. This was in line with a poll of economists from Reuters, who forecasted a rate cut. At that time, South Korea's inflation stood at 2.6%, but climbed sharply to hit 6.3% in July 2022, its highest in over 20 years. Oh noted that macro conditions are supportive of a rate cut, with a "favourable" inflationary backdrop. Oh predicts that after the October cut of 25 basis points, three more consecutive cuts will follow on a quarterly basis, eventually bringing the BOK's benchmark interest rate to 2.5%.
Persons: BOK, Morgan Stanley's, Kathleen Oh, We've, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Bank of, Federal Reserve, Reuters Locations: Bank of Korea, Seoul, Korea's, Korea
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Close to record close for NvidiaNvidia shares have rallied 25% in the last month and are currently trading at $132.11. Former Tata Sons chairman passes awayRatan Tata, the former chairman of the Indian conglomerate Tata Sons, passed away on Wednesday, aged 86. As chairman, Tata was instrumental in spearheading over 60 global acquisitions, helping to grow the group's revenue past $100 billion during his tenure.
Persons: Ian Read, Frank D'Amelio, D'Amelio, Ratan Tata, Tata Organizations: CNBC, Dow Jones, Technology, Nasdaq, Nvidia Nvidia, Nvidia, Microsoft, Mizuho, Pfizer, Guggenheim Securities, Former Tata, Tata Sons, IA Locations: Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, OpenAI
Valerie Plesch | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Sentiment in markets, it seems, was buoyed by encouraging comments from the Fed. The Fed, in other words, is keeping a close eye on the economy and wants to make sure it maintains its smooth landing. It's as if Stephen Sondheim's musical "Into the woods to get the money," markets are merrily singing.
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Gregory Daco, Goldman Sachs, Stephen Suttmeier, Philip Jefferson reemphasized, we're, Mike Bailey, Stephen Sondheim's, Jeff Cox, Samantha Subin, Sarah Min Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, CNBC, Brent, Bank of America, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Apple, Micro Computer, Fed, FBB Capital Partners Locations: USA, Washington, Florida, U.S, Israel
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