Top related persons:
Top related locs:
Top related orgs:

Search resuls for: "doomsayers"


25 mentions found


New York CNN —CEOs of many of the biggest US hotel and travel companies are coming off a bit like doomsayers these days with their warnings about the declining health of consumers and their waning appetite for travel. Gary Hershorn/Getty ImagesMuch of the revenue growth that travel companies reported in recent years resulted from inflation, said David Tinsley, a senior economist at Bank of America Institute. “It was always going to be tough to expect travel spending to be showing the kind of momentum it showed 12 months ago,” he told CNN. “I don’t think the current situation is particularly bleak — it’s reasonable to see more normalization playing out,” he said, referring to travel spending getting back on par with pre-pandemic trends. Still, it’s not hard to see why this mixed picture is prompting travel companies to tread carefully.
Persons: , , Brian Chesky, “ It’s, Ellie Mertz, Chris Nassetta, Airbnb’s Mertz, haven’t, Jan Freitag, ” Freitag, Walt Disney, Gary Hershorn, David Tinsley, Tinsley, , Steve Hafner, it’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Conference, Bank of America Institute, CNN Locations: New York,
Crisis? What Crisis? Biden Rejects Democratic Pessimism
  + stars: | 2024-07-06 | by ( Peter Baker | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
All sounds fine in President Biden’s world. For Mr. Biden, the crisis seen by so many Democrats who are not on his payroll — and by some who are — is nothing more than another bump in the road, another obstacle to overcome as he always has. His prime-time interview that aired on ABC News on Friday night was an exercise not just in damage control but in reality control. For much of his long and storied political career, Mr. Biden has succeeded through sheer force of will, defying the doubters and the skeptics and the scorners to prove that he could do what no one expected. “You really see a president in denial and in a bubble,” Julián Castro, a former housing secretary who ran against Mr. Biden for the Democratic nomination in 2020, said in an interview.
Persons: Biden’s, Biden, Donald J, Trump, , Julián Castro, he’s, Organizations: ABC, Mr, Democratic
Read previewTalks of a looming recession are flaring across Wall Street, but the savings war chest of baby boomers has staved off a US downturn. AdvertisementInstead, only the goods sector has shown signs of a growth recession, Yardeni said. But that's after the lockdown's hard-to-beat buying spree; today, goods spending remains at a record high when adjusted for inflation. Related storiesBut to Yardeni, they're the reason no consumer recession has appeared in the past two years, he separately wrote in April:"The Baby Boomers watched a lot of 'Star Trek' during the 1960s. AdvertisementMeanwhile, the baby boomer focus on service spending may also have deformed indicators, making things look gloomier than they are.
Persons: , Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Business, Financial Times, Boomers
And the fact that there aren't such controls in place yet is a problem OpenAI recognized, per its July 2023 post. Our current techniques for aligning AI, such as reinforcement learning from human feedback , rely on humans' ability to supervise AI," read OpenAI's post. "But humans won't be able to reliably supervise AI systems much smarter than us, and so our current alignment techniques will not scale to superintelligence. AdvertisementLeike — who worked at Google's DeepMind before his gig at OpenAI — had big aspirations for keeping humans safe from the superintelligence we've created. "Maybe a once-and-for-all solution to the alignment problem is located in the space of problems humans can solve.
Persons: , Sam Altman, Ilya Sutskever, Altman, Sutskever, he's, Jan Leike, Leike, OpenAI, superalignment, we're, Google's DeepMind, OpenAI — Organizations: Service, Business, OpenAI Locations: OpenAI
In today's big story, we're looking at the people preparing for the collapse of the financial system . The big storyPreparing for the worstAdobe; Chelsea Jia Feng/BIOpinions fluctuate on the economy, but one group has a decidedly strong take. In the subreddit r/economiccollapse, users are preparing for a Soviet Union-type fall of the US economy , writes Business Insider's Jennifer Sor. Further down the economic totem pole, ALICEs (asset limited, income constrained, employed) are struggling to make ends meet . 3 things in techAlex Wong/Getty Images, STR / Contributor/Getty Images, Stephane De Sakutin/Contributor/Getty Images, Abanti Chowdhury/BIHow Mark Zuckerberg turned against the news.
Persons: , Chelsea Jia Feng, Jennifer Sor, Jennifer, aren't, Tyler, there's, Neil Dutta, Jim Simons, annualized, Alex Wong, Stephane De Sakutin, Abanti Chowdhury, Mark Zuckerberg, Zuckerberg, Rupert Murdoch, Sam Altman, Alyssa Powell, Rick Doblin, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, George Glover, Grace Lett Organizations: Service, Business, Chelsea, Macro, Renaissance Technologies, Big Tech, Apple, FDA, FOX Locations: Soviet Union, China, Washington, Beijing, New York, London, Chicago
De-dollarization efforts won't do much to dethrone the dollar, Morgan Stanley said. There are no true alternatives to holding the US dollar at the moment, Morgan Stanley strategists said. AdvertisementThe dollar's status as the top currency of central banks and for international trade probably isn't fading soon, according to Morgan Stanley. "Now, reasonable people can disagree about whether cryptocurrencies are going to appreciate or depreciate, but I'd argue that the best outcome for a dominant currency is neither." Displacing a dominant currency is something that happens over the course of decades, economists previously told Business Insider, as it takes time for people to shift to other currencies once a dominant currency is recognized as "safe."
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , James Lord, Michael Zezas, That's, Lord, there's, Zezas, Crypto, David Adams, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Service, Rivals, greenback, Business Locations: Beijing, China
Despite a stock market that's less than 1% away from record highs, bearish forecasts are out in full force. And a weakening in the labor market will crush investor confidence and send the stock market falling by as much as 30%. BCA Research: A recession in early 2025 will cause 30% stock market declineBCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim warned that a 30% correction in the stock market could be sparked by a recession early next year. Rosenberg famously predicted the 2008 recession, but his consistently bearish economic outlooks since then have largely fallen flat. Advertisement"Forward earnings rose to a record high during April, consistent with a solid labor market.
Persons: , they're, Gary Shilling, we've, Shilling, BI's Jennifer Sor, we're, John Hussman, Hussman, wouldn't, Roukaya Ibrahim, Ibrahim, David Rosenberg, We're, Rosenberg, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, landers Organizations: Service, Wall, Hussman Investment Trust, BCA, Bloomberg Locations: Wall
"The one thing that our economy is going to be guaranteed is a wartime economy," Daniel told Business Insider in an interview. Interest in ultra-bearish takes on the market or the economy is on the up based on raw search data. Google searches for "stock market crash" have jumped 17% over the last quarter, while searches for "economic crash" have surged 15%, according to search analytics firm Glimpse. In both communities, users are sounding the alarm on all sorts of apocalyptic scenarios for the economy, with some predicting a stock market crash, housing market crash, or a total collapse of the US financial system. "Others may not be as lucky and could be constrained by them, and that could color their outlooks for the stock market and the economy."
Persons: , Daniel, subreddit, Freddie Smith, Smith, aren't, Jonathan Rose, he's, Rose, there's, that's, Richard Sylla Organizations: Service, Genesis Gold, US, Northwestern Mutual, New York University Locations: Washington ,, Reddit, Florida
Read previewAmerican consumers have staved off a recession by relentlessly spending despite soaring inflation, surging interest rates, multi-industry turmoil, and wider economic jitters. AdvertisementBurry predicted that dwindling savings and ballooning debts would choke consumer spending, eroding corporate earnings and sparking a wider recession. That's going to lead to a retrenchment in consumer spending as we get into the new year." That "brings us just a little closer to the consumer recession that nobody believes is going to happen," he added. "With those sources of funding largely exhausted, consumer spending will no doubt grow more slowly than after-tax incomes in future years."
Persons: , Here's, Michael Burry, Elon, Elon Musk, Spencer Platt, Carl Weinberg, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Rosenberg, Gary Shilling, Merrill Lynch's, who's, Shilling Organizations: Service, Business, Twitter, Scion Asset Management, Elon Musk, Getty, Rosenberg Research, North Locations: North American
America has gone from a pandemic crash and recession fears to stocks at record highs and an economic boom. Lockdowns, wars, shortages, inflation, interest rates, day trading, and AI have all played a role. Noam Galai/SOPA/Getty ImagesMany Americans also socked away money during the pandemic, as they saved on expenses like travel and live entertainment. Stimulus-fueled demand, combined with pandemic and war-related supply disruptions, caused inflation to spike to a 40-year high of 9.1% in June that year. The Fed swiftly raised interest rates to rein in the price growth, lifting them from virtually zero to upward of 5% in under 18 months, and hasn't touched them since.
Persons: , We've, Noam Galai, hasn't, It's, dory Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, GameStop, AMC Entertainment, AMC, Bank Locations: America, China, Ukraine
On the agenda today:AdvertisementBut first: Job anxiety is gripping the once-cushy Big Tech industry . ReutersDispatchA Big Tech reckoningWondering what happened to the free lunches and merch in Big Tech? The acronym, which stands for Zero Interest Rate Phenomenon, has become Silicon Valley shorthand for a changed workplace. Whereas before Big Tech companies couldn't hire quick enough, now it's laser focused on reducing layers . AdvertisementBut amid increased competition, an end to cushy perks, and the risk that they might wake up one day to find their office badge no longer works, many working in Big Tech feel … well, a little less special .
Persons: Gen, Aki Ito, she'd, Gen Xers, David Vades Joseph, Rob Dobi, doomsayers, they're, Jake Epstein, Scott Stapp, Matt Turner, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Business, Big Tech, Reuters, Microsoft, Meta, BI Boomers, US Navy, Navy, Phoenix Locations: Big Tech, Big, Red, New York
In today's big story, we're looking at what a hotter-than-expected inflation report means for markets and the econom y . That silver lining doesn’t address the elephant in the room: What does the latest CPI data mean for interest rates? AdvertisementMadison Hoff/Noah Sheidlower/Business InsiderThe hot inflation report comes just a few weeks after some industry experts felt the market was in a perfect position. Stubbornly elevated inflation means Powell might be less willing to cut rates and risk further fueling inflation. It’s particularly painful for smaller companies, which tend to carry floating-rate debt more susceptible to elevated interest rates.
Persons: , Angela Weiss, Insider’s Madison Hoff, BI’s Aruni Soni, Madison Hoff, Noah Sheidlower, we’ve, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jim Zelter, BI’s Yuheng Zhan, Alyssa Powell, Peter Thiel, bitcoin, Noah Berger Sam Altman’s, Jensen Huang, Altman's, Mark Zuckerberg, Jeff Bezos, Bezos, Rob Dobi, doomsayers, Brace, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Business, Service, Dow Jones, Bank of America, Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve Bank of New, BlackRock, Strategic Investors Group, BI, Fund, Reuters, Apple Vision, BI Sky, Employees, Cisco Systems, Sony, McLaren Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Dubai, Miami, Washington, New York, London
The housing market, they claimed, was a bubble destined to burst. I’ve spent the past few years asking experts a simple question: Has the housing market reached bubble territory? AdvertisementFor a time, it seemed like the housing market was doing a speedrun through Simonsen’s checklist. And even if the economy does take a turn, a run-of-the-mill recession probably wouldn’t be enough to topple the housing market. The housing market is far from balanced, but we’re at least heading in that direction.
Persons: doomsayers, I’ve, Redfin, you’ve, you’ll, Mike Simonsen, megalandlords, , Ian Shepherdson, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Powell, Rick Palacios Jr, John Burns, ” doomsayers, might’ve, It’s, it’s, Logan Mohtashami, don’t, US homebuilders, “ It’s, ” Mohtashami, Selma Hepp, Fannie Mae, Palacios, ” Palacios, Mohtashami Organizations: Altos Research, Wall, John, John Burns Research, Consulting, Mortgage Bankers Association, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Federal Housing Finance Agency Locations: Charlotte, North Carolina, Austin, Las Vegas, Miami, Boise , Idaho, Dallas, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, US
Growing hope for an economic soft landing is misplaced, economist Ken Rogoff wrote this week. The Harvard economist sees the runway for the economy in an "earthquake zone" in 2024. AdvertisementThere's little reason to be optimistic about a soft-landing, as the economy is set to land in an "earthquake zone" in 2024, according to top economist Ken Rogoff. Advertisement"Despite the widespread belief that the global economy is headed for a soft landing, recent trends offer little cause for optimism. The US also faces trouble as the national debt continues to surge and interest rates look poised to stay higher-for-longer.
Persons: Ken Rogoff, , Doom, Rogoff Organizations: Harvard, Service, Syndicate, International Monetary Fund, Fed, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed Locations: China, Europe, Ukraine, Russia
"I am very proud of what this organization has already delivered for Alexa and AGI," Prasad added. Amazon's AGI team wasn't launched in response to this drama. The change also follows last week's job cuts within the AGI team, as BI previously reported . The cuts were part of a broader layoff that primarily affected Amazon's Alexa team. These are the six new teams formed within the AGI unit, as per the internal email:• AGI Product: defines AGI services and engages with internal customer teams to ensure end-to-end success.
Persons: Amazon's, Rohit Prasad, Prasad, Sam Altman, that's, Altman wasn't, didn't, wasn't, Andy Jassy, AGI, It's, Organizations: Alexa, Devices, Business, Microsoft, Google, AGI, Amazon, TV
However, overemphasizing the dangers of AI risks paralyzing debate at a pivotal moment. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Advertisement"I'm not scared of A.I.," LeCun told the magazine. While Hinton and Meta's chief AI scientist LeCun have butted heads, fellow collaborator and third AI godfather Yoshua Bengio has stressed that this unknown is the real issue.
Persons: what's, Geoffrey Hinton, , Hinton, Yan LeCun, Turing, LeCun, Yoshua Bengio, Yann, Joshua Rothman, it's Organizations: Service, Big Tech, Google, Yorker Locations: Hinton, Canadian
Many are shrugging off the supposed existential risks of AI, labeling them a distraction. They argue big tech companies are using the fears to protect their own interests. The timing of the pushback, ahead of the UK's AI safety summit and following Biden's recent executive order on AI, is also significant. More experts are warning that governments' preoccupation with the existential risks of AI is taking priority over the more immediate threats. Merve Hickok, the president of the Center for AI and Digital Policy, raised similar concerns about the UK AI safety summit's emphasis on existential risk.
Persons: , You've, there's, Yann LeCun, Altman, Hassabis, LeCun, LeCun's, OpenAI's Sam Altman, Anthropic's Dario Amodei, Andrew Ng, hasn't, Anthropic, Aidan Gomez, Merve Hickok, Hickok, Rishi Sunak, Michelle Donelan Organizations: Service, Google, CNBC, Stanford University, Australian Financial, Guardian, Center, AI
Lower rates with higher job growth — an uncertain positive that I can't recall ever seeing — may be upon us. If you take the existential off the table and realize the market strength the bears cannot see, you actually want to own stocks. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: We've, Jerome Powell, Powell doesn't, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Michael Nagle Organizations: Club, Treasury, U.S . Labor, Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Fed, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Washington ,, New York, U.S
The inverse of the fall in the time price is a huge increase in what the authors termed “personal resource abundance.” For their next step, they multiplied personal resource abundance by population change to get population resource abundance. For example, for U.S. blue-collar workers from 1919 to 2019, the personal resource abundance of food grew 1,032 percent while the population grew 212 percent, for an increase in population resource abundance of 3,436 percent. For one, I don’t think the authors took climate change nearly seriously enough. They also said that the carbon intensity of gross domestic product tends to fall as nations become rich, which is good but not a solution to global warming, since the actual amount of emissions per capita is still higher in rich countries than in poor countries. Tupy wrote in his email that the environmentalists he and Pooley like are “techno-optimists” such as Bjorn Lomborg, of Denmark, the self-described “skeptical environmentalist,” and Nordhaus, of Yale.
Persons: Tupy, Pooley, , , , Bjorn Lomborg, Steve Jobs Organizations: Yale, Apple Locations: Waterloo, “ Superabundance, Denmark
The US is nearing a dream no-recession scenario, according to Morgan Stanley's top economist. Falling inflation and steady growth show the Federal Reserve is closing in on a soft landing, Seth Carpenter said. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. "I wouldn't say that we've discarded it wholesale – there's always a risk," Carpenter, who is the bank's global chief economist, told Bloomberg TV, referring to the risk of a recession. Meanwhile, growth has remained resilient – with the economy expanding 2.1% between April and June, according to a government estimate Wednesday.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's, Seth Carpenter, , , Carpenter, Morgan Stanley, who's, Mike Wilson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Service, Federal, Fed, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon, China
For twelve consecutive months, the sector has experienced net outflows – coupled with the worst May since 2009. The industry's total Wall Street exposure has fallen to the lowest in over 10 years – despite US stocks enjoying a remarkable 2023 bull run. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. "The net outflow in May 2023, while not generally large, was the largest net outflow value we've seen." "Attempting to be blunt…there was little evidence of meaningful new interest in hedge funds in May."
Persons: Peter Laurelli, Laurelli, Alison Savas Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Research, Financial Times, Antipodes Partners, Nvidia Locations: Wall, Silicon, Australia, Europe
Wall Street hasn't been so divided for two decades, according to Bloomberg. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. Similarly, the Federal Reserve's own forecasters say it's a 50-50 call whether the US will manage to escape a severe economic slump. And you can add Wall Street to the list of places where there's limited agreement on if there'll be a recession before the end of this year. The range of views on Wall Street is so wide that when it comes to stocks, analysts haven't been so divided for 20 years, according to Bloomberg.
Persons: Joe Biden, Janet Yellen, there'll, Goldman Sachs, there's, Morgan Stanley's, Mike Wilson, haven't Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Federal, Bank of America, JPMorgan Locations: Wall, Silicon
Wall Street analysts and economists have always had a tendency to fall in love with their forecasts. This stubbornness helps explain why Wall Street is having an exceptionally hard time letting go of the idea that a recession is just around the corner. Despite the year-plus in which analysts have been arguing that a recession is imminent, none of the arguments behind the predictions stand up to scrutiny. Bear growlsOver the past year, Wall Street pessimists' reasons for an approaching recession have shifted. The drag from the US housing market is fading.
Persons: doomsayers, it's, Neil Dutta Organizations: Street, Federal Reserve, Fed, Macro
What the Fed Rate ‘Pause’ Means for Your Money
  + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Steve Garmhausen | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +6 min
By Steve GarmhausenFor months consumers have watched interest rates steadily climb. “This is the Fed just kind of waiting and seeing,” says investment adviser Brian Frank, in Key Biscayne, Fla.What does the Fed ‘pause’ mean? While no one knows where interest rates are headed, here is how to prepare yourself for three basic scenarios. If the Fed pulls away the football, stock prices could retreat. In that case, folks with higher mortgage rates can eventually refinance.
Persons: Steve Garmhausen, , Brian Frank, you’ve, Jon Foster, , can’t, Frank, you’ll Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, won’t, Nasdaq Locations: Key Biscayne, Fla, Los Angeles
executives have likened their product to nuclear energy. creators’ calls for national and international regulation — much as scientists called for guardrails governing nuclear arms in the 1950s. The creators of this technology are telling us we need to pay attention.”Not every expert thinks the comparison fits. and nuclear energy, has upsides and risks. or nuclear technology.
Persons: , , , Rachel Bronson, Julian Togelius Organizations: Atomic Scientists
Total: 25