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☆ Economist: Trump's 2nd term set to be less inflationary than market predicts
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEconomist: Trump's 2nd term set to be less inflationary than market predictsPiper Sandler's Nancy Lazar discusses key factors that will drive a disinflationary environment in the next U.S. administration under Trump's policies.

Persons: Piper Sandler's Nancy Lazar

☆ Wholesale inflation heated up again last month, reversing recent progress
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

CNN —US wholesale inflation picked up more than expected in October, indicating that some price pressures persist at the producer level. Still, one potential favorable sign for inflation-weary consumers: Wholesale food prices dropped 0.2% for the month. FactSet consensus forecasts called for a 0.2% monthly gain and for the annual rate to heat up to 2.3%. Economists projected a 0.2% monthly gain and a 3% annual rate. Thursday’s PPI trajectory mirrored that seen in the latest Consumer Price Index data released Wednesday.

Persons: Price, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James ’, Thomas Simons, Jefferies, ” Simons, ” Oren Klachkin, Donald Trump’s, ”, Christopher Rupkey, Rupkey Organizations: CNN, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Federal Reserve, “, CPI, Nationwide

☆ Inflation cooled even further last month, likely solidifying more rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-31 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —Inflation has slowed further and is just a hair’s breadth from the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed prices rose 2.1% for the year ended in September, a slowdown from 2.3% in August, according to Commerce Department data released Thursday. The annual increase, which marks a fresh three-and-a-half-year low, fell right in line with what economists were expecting, according to FactSet consensus estimates. However, falling gas prices helped to keep the lid on any gains. Many states are seeing gas prices below $3 a gallon, a trend that’s expected to continue in the coming weeks as global supply eclipses demand.

Persons: ” Olu Sonola Organizations: CNN, Inflation, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fitch

☆ The disinflationary path will be a lot slower than people anticipate, says Subadra Rajappa
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe disinflationary path will be a lot slower than people anticipate, says Subadra RajappaSubadra Rajappa, Societe Generale head of U.S. rate strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, what to make of the volatility in bond market, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.

Persons: Subadra Organizations: Societe Generale

Mārtiņš Kazāks, Bank of Latviawatch nowOn a 50-basis-point rate cut: "Well, everything should be on the table, you know, given what the data tells us. Klaas Knot, Netherlands central bankwatch now"Are we risking a structural undershoot of our inflation target? Joachim Nagel, German central bankwatch nowOn rate cuts: "This discussion about 25 or maybe something different is not helpful. On rate cuts: "The direction is clear. Gediminas Šimkus, Bank of Lithuaniawatch nowOn rate cuts: "We are clearly moving ... towards the direction of easing monetary policy.

Persons: Karen Tso, Pierre Wunsch, I'm, we've, Mario Centeno, Klaas, It's, Robert Holzmann, Joachim Nagel, disinflation, Volcker, Olli Rehn, it's, Gediminas Šimkus, Boris Vujčić Organizations: European Central Bank, International Monetary, Bank of Latvia, National Bank of Belgium, Bank of Portugal, Austrian National Bank, Bank of France, Bank of Finland, Bank of Lithuania, Croatian National Bank Locations: Washington ,, Kazāks, Netherlands, German, Galhau, Europe

☆ Why inflation isn't returning to pre-pandemic levels — and 3 trades to capitalize on an overheating economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-23 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The central bank has been aiming to keep the long-run inflation rate at this level to maintain stable prices and a healthy economy. "There is now a higher base inflation rate than there was before COVID for a number of reasons." Related storiesBut there are other factors contributing to an increased long-term inflation rate, many of which Blitz tracked even before the pandemic. AdvertisementChanging demographics in the workplace are also driving increasing debt and higher long-term inflation, according to Blitz. In Blitz's perspective, all of these factors add up to an inflation rate exceeding 2% going forward.

Persons: isn't, Steven Blitz, —, Mark Higgins, Blitz, Bonds Organizations: Service, Fed, stoke, Blitz, Technology, iShares Semiconductor, Index

☆ A US missile-defense system, hailed as the world's best, is headed to Israel to counter Iran
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-14 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The US is sending a sophisticated missile defense system to Israel. The THAAD system was described by a former US general as the "best in the world." The move comes amid the rising threat of missile and drone attacks on Israel from Iran and its allies. It's the only missile defense system designed to intercept targets either inside or outside the Earth's atmosphere. AdvertisementAnd back in 2019, when Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked Saudi oil facilities, the US deployed a THAAD system to protect the Kingdom.

Persons: —, Lockheed Martin, Mark Hertling, Hertling, It's, Israel's, Ahmet Kaya Organizations: Service, Israel, Lockheed, CNN, Hezbollah, Pentagon, Bloomberg, Area Defense, Brown University, Hamas, US, UK's National Institute of Economic, Social Research Locations: Israel, Iran, Lebanon, Tehran, Gaza, East, Yemen, Iranian, Saudi

☆ Why economists and strategists still say a recession is postponed, despite a startling inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-13 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Contradictory messages about inflation and the labor market have investors on guard. Price growth is slowly falling from its peak, but it exceeded expectations in September after a hot reading in August. AdvertisementInflation is a threat that won't sink the economyWhile there's plenty of economic data to get excited about, persistent price growth is a problem. "If we're going to be data dependent, we have to at least look at the data," Sosnick said. Higher-than-hoped inflation is rarely compatible with an economic downturn, so if price growth does persist, it likely won't be in an earnings-crushing contraction.

Persons: —, Steve Sosnick, they've, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Sosnick, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Joe Quinlan —, Skyler Weinand, Regan, Weinand, We've Organizations: Service, US, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Interactive Brokers, Business, Manufacturing, Index, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Equity, Financial, Merrill, Private Bank, Bank of America, Regan Capital, Fed Locations: China

☆ Israel is trying to dismantle Hezbollah's leadership, but there's a big problem
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-10 | by ( Mikhaila Friel | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Israel has been targeting Hezbollah's leaders with a series of air strikes. Hezbollah's leadership crisis may lead to internal power struggles and strategic shifts. AdvertisementIsrael is continuing its relentless campaign to dismantle Hezbollah's leadership. Israel says it killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on Beirut. As well as taking out Hezbollah's leadership with strikes in Lebanon and Gaza, Israel is also weighing up a counterattack against Iran after it launched a ballistic missile attack.

Persons: —, Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's, Fu'ad, Ali Karaki, Ibrahim Aqeel, Hashem Safieddine, Israel, Chris McGrath, Benjamin Netanyahu, it's, Netanyahu, Mohammed Albasha, Albasha, Antony Loewenstein, KAWNAT HAJU, William F, Wechsler, Abbas al, Mireille Rebeiz, Nasrallah, Al, Ahmet Kaya Organizations: Service, Israel, Palestine, Sky News, Getty, Atlantic Council, Rafik Hariri Center and Middle, Islamic Jihad Organization, Middle East, Dickinson College, UK's National Institute of Economic, Social Research, CNN Locations: Israel, Syria's, Golan, Beirut, Chris McGrath Israeli, US, Lebanon, AFP, Rafik, Buenos Aires, Iran, Pennsylvania, Gaza

☆ Wider Middle East conflict threatens the global economy — when the US and China already face headwinds, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The widening conflict in the Middle East threatens to crimp growth and stoke inflation, experts say. AdvertisementExperts say the escalating war in the Middle East could choke global economic growth and reignite inflation, just as the US is dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, and China is trying to stabilize its beleaguered economy. "War in the Middle East could exacerbate the instabilities in the global economy, further increase the uncertainties, harm disinflationary efforts, and eventually reduce the global GDP growth," he told Business Insider. AdvertisementKaya warned the conflict could accelerate inflation by disrupting international supply chains and causing the cost of energy and shipping to rise. But he emphasized that hurricanes have historically had limited and short-lived impacts on growth and inflation.

Persons: Helene, —, Hurricane Helene, Ahmet Kaya, Kaya, Brent, Assaf Razin, Eitan Berglas, Oliver Allen, Allen, that's, Duncan Wrigley, China's, Wrigley Organizations: stoke, Service, UK's National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Eitan, of Economics, Tel Aviv University, Pantheon Macroeconomics, Oxford Locations: Hurricane, China, Israel, Iran, Oxford, China China, Beijing

☆ Ron Insana: Even as inflation cools, markets show that risks to the soft landing are rising
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

What people say about growth and inflation doesn't matter much anymore – even as the latest consumer inflation report shows a cooling trend. That means a notable drop in both wholesale and consumer prices is coming down the road. Now, it appears that the U.S. is slipping behind the rest of the world, turning its policy actions toward growth risks rather than inflation risks. It's also important to remind Fed policymakers that there is ample evidence of slower consumer spending among middle-to-lower income families. Further, recent revisions to job growth in the 12-month period through March 2024 confirm that a soft landing is at risk.

Persons: Stocks, that's, We're, It's, Ron Insana Organizations: Treasury, U.S ., CNBC Locations: China, U.S

☆ Why the global fight against inflation is nowhere near over
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"Everyone seems to believe that inflation will return to its boring old normal," said Chief European economist Tomasz Wieladek. Changes in central bank policy, expectations, labor markets, and globalization mean that inflation will likely stay volatile going forward." Depending on circumstances, this could set the scene for another large inflation target miss." For instance, JPMorgan chief Jamie Dimon has repeated warnings of a pricey future, as global militarization and the green transition stoke inflation. "While AI will likely have a disinflationary effect in the medium term, the associated energy consumption could contribute to higher short-term inflation."

Persons: —, Rowe Price, Tomasz Wieladek, Wieladek, Jamie Dimon, Donald Trump Organizations: Service, Financial Times, Business, JPMorgan Locations: Europe

Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell said Friday he expects the central bank will cut its key interest rate in the near future in response to slower economic growth and cooling inflation. "The labor market is no longer overheated, and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic. Starting in the spring of 2022, the Fed raised interest rates to a level not seen in nearly two decades as it worked to combat soaring inflation. "Make no mistake, if the labor market shows signs of further cooling, the Fed will cut with conviction," Shah wrote. Lower interest rates will provide some relief to consumer borrowers, but it will not be immediate, according to Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com.

Persons: Jay Powell, Powell, ” Powell, “, Seema Shah, —, Shah, Greg McBride, McBride Organizations: ”, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, midmorning, Market Committee, Management Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

☆ Stock market today: Stocks soar as investors cheer soft PPI and brace for consumer inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rallied on cooling inflation data from the producer price index report. Investors are hoping for evidence of further cooling in Wednesday's consumer price index. Starbucks gained 23% on Tuesday on news Chipotle boss Brian Niccol will be the new CEO. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the producer price index rose 0.1% in July, underwhelming estimates of a 0.2% increase. Investors will now watch for further disinflationary signals in Wednesday's consumer price index report.

Persons: Brian Niccol, —, Dow, Jamie Cox Organizations: Investors, Starbucks, Service, Labor Statistics, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Harris Financial Group, Bank of America

☆ Bank of England's rate cut is on a knife-edge even with inflation on target
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Market pricing on Wednesday morning suggested a 60% probability of a rate cut at the BOE's Aug. 1 meeting. That is far less conviction than traders had before the European Central Bank enacted its own rate cut at the start of June; while pricing for the U.S. Federal Reserve to cut for the first time in this cycle in September has hit 100%. watch nowIn both May and June, seven MPC members voted to hold, as two voted to cut by 25 basis points. Headline U.K. inflation spiked higher than in the U.S. and euro zone over the last two years, but has also cooled more quickly. "I would rather hold rates until there is more certainty that underlying inflationary pressures have subsided sustainably," Haskel said.

Persons: Mike Kemp, BOE, Jonathan Haskel —, —, Haskel Organizations: of England, Bank of England's, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, MPC Locations: City of London, U.S, BOE, U.K

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rebound as inflation data reinforces Fed rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks rose Friday morning, regaining momentum after three days of losses. Instead, investors indicated 87.7% odds of a 25-basis point cut, and 11.9% odds of a 50-basis point cut. This week, creeping doubt in large-cap tech stocks rally spurred investors to rotate out of the sector, pulling both indexes down 3.67% and 2.6% through the past week, respectively.

Persons: —, Fitch, Olu Sonola Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, PCE, Federal, Treasury Locations: Here's

☆ The big rotation trade is from cash to stocks - and it could help push the S&P 500 up 17% by year-end, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

UBS said a major rotation from cash and bonds into stocks could happen later this year. UBS' Jason Draho reiterated his bull case for the S&P 500 to rise 17% into year-end. AdvertisementThe cash-to-stocks trade is the more durable rotation investors should be watching, UBS said. "We still recommend that investors position for lower rates, seek quality growth stocks, and seize the AI opportunity," Draho said. There will be a rotation trade in that scenario, but from cash and bonds into stocks," Draho said.

Persons: Jason Draho, —, there's, Draho, it's Organizations: UBS, Service, Federal Reserve

☆ Fed Governor Waller sees central bank 'getting closer' to an interest rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday suggested that interest rate cuts are ahead soon as long as there are no major surprises on inflation and employment. "So, while I don't believe we have reached our final destination, I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted." Keeping with statements from other policymakers, Waller's sentiments point to an unlikelihood of a rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month, but a stronger likelihood of a move in September. "Given that I believe the first two scenarios have the highest probability of occurring, I believe the time to lower the policy rate is drawing closer," Waller said. Williams noted that inflation data is "all moving in the right direction and doing that pretty consistently" and is "getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we're looking for."

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal, Kansas City Fed, Market Committee, CNBC, New York Fed, Wall Street, Fed, Traders

☆ Investors look to upcoming earnings to keep stock rally going
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-05 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —With interest rate cuts on the backburner, Wall Street is looking to corporate earnings to continue powering the 2024 stock market rally. Analysts polled by FactSet expect second-quarter earnings of S&P 500 companies to grow about 8.7% on average from the prior year. Strong corporate earnings have helped the S&P 500 gain a whopping 16% and notch repeated record high closes this year. Since the Fed isn’t likely to cut rates anytime soon, the onus is on strong corporate earnings to continue driving the market rally. Earnings season kicks off July 12 when big banks including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup report results.

Persons: FactSet, Jerome Powell, ”, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Wells, Dow, Lisa Shalett, Jessie Yeung, Hanako Montgomery, Junko Ogura, “, Tadashi Matsubara, ” Read, Laura He, Pan Gongsheng, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal, LPL, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Dow Jones, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Kanpou, “, Beijing Money, Silicon Valley Bank, People’s Bank of China, prudential Locations: New York, Sintra , Portugal, Wells Fargo, Banks, Japan, Nepal, China, Beijing, Silicon, United States, Shanghai

☆ Oil prices slip after data points to cooling U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Oil prices fell in early trade on Thursday after U.S. employment and business activity data came in weaker than expected, in signs the economy may be cooling in the world's top oil consuming nation. Separately, the ADP Employment report showed private payrolls increased by 150,000 jobs in June, below a consensus predicting an increase of 160,000, and after rising by 157,000 in May. However, weaker economic data may add to the Federal Reserve's arguments to start cutting rates, analysts said, a move that would be supportive for the oil markets as lower rates could boost demand. "The direction of recent data conforms to the Fed's easing bias," ANZ Research analysts said in a note. "A slowdown in growth momentum will support disinflationary impulses in coming months, paving the way for the Fed to cut rates."

Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, ADP, ISM, ANZ Research, Fed Locations: United States

☆ Treasury yield little changed ahead of key economic data, Fed meeting minutes
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by less than one basis point to 4.4375%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.7538% after rising by over one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to key data and digested remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Recent inflation readings indicated that "we are getting back on the disinflationary path," he said. The figures could be a further hint about whether the economy is cooling, and therefore what the path ahead for interest rates could look like.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Fed

☆ Euro zone inflation eases to 2.5% as core print misses estimate
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

watch nowHeadline inflation in the euro area dipped to 2.5% in June, the European Union's statistics agency said Tuesday, while the closely watched core and services prints held steady. Core inflation, excluding the volatile effects of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, stayed at 2.9% from the prior month, narrowly missing the 2.8% economists had forecast. Investors will now parse what the latest data means for the trajectory of interest rates in the 20-nation euro zone, following the European Central Bank's initial 25 basis point cut in June. Volatility in the consumer price index has long been expected this year, as choppy base effects from the energy market unwind. In June, year-on-year energy inflation in the euro zone was 0.2%, a sharp switch from earlier in the year when the sector had a strong disinflationary pull.

Persons: Luis de Guindos, CNBC's Annette Weisbach Organizations: Reuters, Inflation, Investors, Central, Tuesday, ECB, Central Banking Locations: Sintra , Portugal

☆ Investors just got an inflation wakeup call. Will they answer?
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Inflation rates in Canada, the EU and Australia have popped higher in recent months. But that disconnect appears to be fading as inflation rates in the US continue to ease. The US also had a recent scare as inflation rates ticked higher. But after a year of the Fed holding interest rates steady at a 23-year high, inflation rates in the United States are once again declining. High inflation readings around the globe are concerning investors, José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, told CNN.

Persons: ”, Brent Schutte, Schutte, José Torres, Torres, payrolls, Chewy, Keith Gill, Krystal Hur, Gill, Ryan Cohen, Jordan Valinsky, CSSE Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, EU, Federal, Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Interactive Brokers, CNN, Investors, Bank for International, BIS, Securities, Exchange, GameStop, Soul Entertainment, BBC, Sony Pictures, Walmart, Walgreens, Apollo Global Management, Sony, Netflix Locations: New York, Canada, Australia, United States, Europe, Redbox

☆ Powell Cites ‘Real Progress’ as Central Bankers Assess Inflation Fight
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( Eshe Nelson | Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Inflation “now shows signs of resuming its disinflationary trend,” Mr. Powell said on Tuesday at the European Central Bank’s annual conference in Sintra, Portugal. It was an optimistic message after the Fed’s fight against inflation hit a speed bump earlier this year. Fed officials have been waiting to see further progress on inflation before they begin to lower interest rates, which are currently set to their highest level in decades, at 5.3 percent. Mr. Powell declined to say exactly when officials could begin to cut borrowing costs, but suggested that they could lower rates if inflation data continued on its current track or if the labor market weakened. “What we’d like to see is more data like what we’ve been seeing recently,” Mr. Powell said, later adding, “We have the ability to take our time and get this right.”

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, Mr, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Central Locations: United States, Sintra , Portugal

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise to kick off the 2nd half as traders look ahead to fresh jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks ticked higher as traders looked to kick off the second half of the year,The market is adding to a strong performance in the first half, with the S&P 500 up 14% year-to-date. Investors are waiting for the June jobs report to roll out on Friday, which could shape the outlook for rate cuts. AdvertisementUS stocks surged on Monday as traders looked ahead to fresh jobs data at the end of the holiday-shortened week. Major indexes rose to add to gains from the already strong first half of 2024, while bond yields also ticked higher. Economists expect the economy to have added 190,000 jobs in the last month, down from 272,000 jobs added in May.

Persons: —, Stocks, Hogan, Riley Wealth, Keith Gill Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Treasury, GameStop, Here's

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