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"For example, during Trump's previous administration, deregulation in the energy sector boosted oil and gas stocks, benefiting energy ETFs." Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) and Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF (BND), two of the world's largest bond ETFs, and longer-term funds like iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). Crypto ETFS having big year and getting bigger Since launching in January, crypto ETFs have attracted roughly $70 billion in assets, one of the most successful ETF launches ever. Bitcoin ETFs including the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the largest bitcoin ETF by assets under management, have seen significant inflows since October. Rosenberg at Texas Capital acknowledges that certain ETF sectors, like industrials ( Vanguard Industrials Index Fund ETF , or VIS; iShares U.S. Industrials ETF , or IYJ), "could be hurt by more tariffs."
Persons: Trump, Tom Lydon, John Davi, iShares Russell, ROE, Matt Bartolini, Bartolini, Gavi, Edward Rosenberg, Gary Gensler, Michael Novogratz, Cathie Wood, Todd Sohn, Wood, Davi, Rosenberg, industrials Organizations: Astoria, CNBC, Potential Trump, Bank ETF, Assets ETF, Trump, ETF Research, Street Global Advisors, Regional Bank ETF, Treasury, Aggregate Bond, Vanguard, Fund, Treasury Bond ETF, Texas, SEC, Commodity Futures, Galaxy Digital Holdings, ARK, Innovation, ARKK, Downside, China ETF, Texas Capital, Index, Industrials, U.S, Edge Locations: Astoria, Congress, rulemaking, Coinbase, China, Mexico
For one, the market was already in a sturdy uptrend, the S & P ahead by 20% in 2024 by October. Now, the S & P is up 44% in the past 18 months and the P/E is above 22 on more elevated margins. Here's the S & P 500 Value vs Growth relationship since 2014. His call is for investors to fade any near-term rally that takes the S & P above his 6100 "bull case" target for year end. For sure, the S & P 500 is by some measures running a bit hot, pushing above the top end of its two-year bull-market path.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jay Powell, Trump, Cyclicals, Russell, YTD, Doug Ramsey, we're, reflating, Scott Chronert, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Republican, Trump Trade, Federal, Treasury, financials, Nasdaq, Group, Investment, Trump, Russell, Citi Locations: upending Washington, U.S, year's
Goldman Sachs has modeled out some election outcomes, along with how the S & P 500 will react, ahead of the results. Trump wins and Republicans sweep A 25% likelihood, with the S & P 500 set to rise 3%. Trump wins, but the government is divided A 30% likelihood, with the S & P 500 set to gain 1.5%. This scenario will still be positive for markets, with the S & P 500 set to gain 1.5% afterward, the note read. However, investors could step in and buy the dip on the S & P 500, the firm said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris Organizations: U.S, Republicans, Trump, Republican, Nasdaq, Democratic Locations: Wednesday's, cyclicals
For all we know, the yield curve may simply be going through the birthing of an un-inverted yield curve. GOOGL YTD mountain Alphabet YTD Search used to be so simple. META YTD mountain Meta Platforms YTD Meta Platforms has run big ahead of the quarter. AMZN YTD mountain Amazon YTD Let's get to the two toughest of the week, Amazon and Apple. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: let's, Eli Lilly, nonfarm payrolls, Carl Quintanilla, batty, Jeff Marks, Waymo, Elon Musk, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Department's, Mark Zuckerberg, Jensen Huang, Marc Benioff, Trump, Warren Buffett, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Microsoft, Apple, Treasury, Federal Reserve, charlatans, Honeywell, Twitter, Club, Gemini, YouTube, Google, Donner Party of cannibalization, AMD, Nvidia, Intel, Merck, Pfizer, Tech Titans, Meta, Amazon Web Services Locations: Wall, cyclicals, California, Philly
S & P 500 money is oblivious to stock valuations of any kind and ignorant to upgrades and downgrades. The Lilliputian sellers regularly fail to do damage when matched with the oblivious index money. A 4% 2-year note isn't competitive to the magnet of the S & P 500 and its kin. That's emblematic of what happens with a big buyback without stock-based compensation (something many tech firms use that renders moot the S & P 500 inflows). Because of the way that the S & P 500 money is divvied up, the share base becomes overwhelmingly index-fund based and the index fund shareholders do not sell.
Persons: Morningstar, Smoot, Herbert Hoover's, Warren Buffett, Buffett, Jerome Powell, haven't, Charlie Scharf, Wells, Banks, Charlie, Morgan Stanley, Ted Pick, James Gorman, Schwab, Gamble, Jim Umpleby, that's, Butch Cassidy, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Charles Scharf, Kyle Grillot Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Taiwan Semi, Trust, Fed, Triple AAA Robinhood, Morgan, Procter, United Airlines, Exxon, Caterpillar, Boeing, Apple, Meta, Sundance, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Milken Institute Global Conference, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Hawley, McCumber, Taiwan, Arizona, American, Wells Fargo, Wells, China, Chevron, Beverly Hills, Calif
Positioning in financial stocks is light relative to other sectors, Morgan Stanley says. AdvertisementInvestors are lingering in defensive trades that don't take advantage of the economy's strength, Morgan Stanley said, highlighting opportunities in underinvested sectors. The firm — which just last week upgraded cyclical stocks to "overweight" relative to defensives — described the financials group as particularly attractive. Morgan Stanley said net exposure to financials was in the bottom 15th percentile of a historical data series that goes back to 2010. Morgan Stanley noted that this weakness lowered earnings-season expectations for investors, making it easier for major lenders to outperform forecasts.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , financials, Mike Wilson, Wells Fargo, Wilson Organizations: Service, Bank, JPMorgan, Utilities, defensives, ISM Locations: Basel
JPMorgan's top strategist had something positive to say about stocks for the first time in a while. "While it is too soon to assume that this is a turning point, it does suggest that a recession is unlikely in the near term." Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. But that seems to be changing, based on a Tuesday note from JPMorgan chief global equity strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas. "We are neutralizing our long Defensive and short Cyclicals view," Lakos-Bujas said.
Persons: Dubravko Lakos, Bujas, Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Reserve, Federal Reserve, & $ Locations: China, buybacks
As investors consider whether — and how — to invest in China, two experts share their views on the market right now. "We believe the scale and focus of these measures, particularly the targeted liquidity injection, address the critical issue of insufficient domestic capital flows into China's stock market. 'China is no longer cheap' Lorraine Tan, director of Asia's equity research at Morningstar, is more cautious looking ahead. "At this point in time, China markets are no longer cheap. Stocks on her radar include "higher quality, moaty names," such as fast-food restaurant chain Yum China Holdings and property developer China Resources Land .
Persons: Jingwei Chen, , Europe —, Chen, Lorraine Tan, Tan, Stocks, — CNBC's Lim Hui Jie Organizations: National, Reform Commission, CSI, Wall, Wrise Private Singapore, CNBC Pro, Companies, BYD, Tencent Holdings, Morningstar, China Holdings, China Resources Locations: China, Asia, East, Europe, Hong Kong
AdvertisementCorporate earnings are on pace for their best non-pandemic year since 2018, and market strategists expect the party to continue in the upcoming earnings season and into 2025. "There's not always a one-for-one relationship between economic growth and earnings growth," Reynolds said. "You can still see earnings growth at a pretty robust level, even if economic growth moderates to some extent. "That could be a little bit of a headwind for the market," Saglimbene said. That's a normal earnings growth kind of environment, and I think that's enough to continue to push the market higher."
Persons: , Mike Reynolds, Anthony Saglimbene, He's, Saglimbene, Joe Quinlan — who's, Bank of America —, Quinlan, Reynolds, it's, Andrew Slimmon, Jim Baird, Plante, Michael Smith, Smith, There's, Slimmon, he's Organizations: Service, Business, Ameriprise, Merrill, Private Bank, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Financial, Allspring Global Investments, Bears Locations: what's
Here are 33 of the firm's favorite stocks heading into a pivotal fourth quarter. Therefore, it's no shock that those growth stocks are responsible for the market's lofty valuation. AdvertisementMorningstar33 top stocks to ownIn Morningstar's fourth-quarter note, the firm designated 33 stocks as its top picks across sectors and groups like cyclicals, defensives, and economically sensitive companies. "To outperform, we think investors will need to look for contrarian investments and story stocks," Sekera wrote. Along with each company is its ticker, market capitalization, group, sector, rating, price target, upside to that target, and selected commentary from Morningstar.
Persons: , Dave Sekera, Morningstar, Sekera Organizations: Morningstar, Service, Stocks
There are several key stocks in the U.S. investors need to be mindful of when navigating the current market environment, according to Bank of America. To capture the momentum from this rally, Bank of America screened for the most important stocks in each region of the world — including the U.S. — that have the potential to have the largest impact on portfolio performance, positive or negative. Bank of America found these stocks to be among the most important in the U.S.: Chipmaker Nvidia and oil and gas giant Exxon Mobil ranked fairly high on the firm's steady compounders list within the screen. Meta's shares are up nearly 64% year to date. Other stocks considered the most important names in the U.S. include rideshare company Uber and pharma name Eli Lilly .
Persons: Nigel Tupper, Vivek Arya's, Metaverse, Justin Post, Eli Lilly Organizations: Bank of America, Investment, U.S, Nvidia, Exxon Mobil, Exxon, Meta, Bank of America's, Uber Locations: U.S, Lebanon, Thursday's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLean into growth and cyclicals to manage potentially choppy end of year, says Citi's Scott ChronertScott Chronert, Citi U.S. equity strategist, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his assessment of the major averages and stocks to end the year, how tensions overseas could impact U.S. markets, and more.
Persons: Citi's Scott Chronert Scott Chronert Organizations: Citi U.S
Then there's the upside progress made in the third quarter without the leadership of super-cap tech – the equal-weighted S & P 500 is up nearly 9% since June 30 and the Nasdaq 100 up less than 2%. Goldman Sachs here plots the S & P 500 forward P/E at the time of each initial rate cut in a cycle. For sure, a breather would make sense for the broad market, with the S & P 500 up 11 of the past 15 days. In either case, it's a notable deviation from the story of placid strength being told by the S & P 500 itself. The median Wall Street strategist target for the S & P 500 is now well below the current index level, usually not something one sees at an ultimate market peak.
Persons: Scott Chronert, isn't, Goldman Sachs, it's, John Kolovos, Bitcoin's Organizations: Nasdaq, Citi, Fed Locations: China
The move prompted Wall Street giants Barclays and Citi to adopt a more optimistic stance on global cyclical stocks. Barclays believes the Federal Reserve's actions are "clearly designed to pull out all the stops to achieve a soft landing" for the economy. Barclays strategists noted that "cyclicals typically rebounded steadily after the Fed started its rate cut cycle ... as long as it was not followed by a recession." Citi strategists share a similar outlook for European stocks. "The scale of the downgrades has become so extreme of late that we're now approaching a point where negative ERI may be a useful contrarian indicator," the Citi strategists said.
Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Beata Manthey, we're, Safran, Atlas, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Barclays, Citi, Fed, Siemens, BBVA, ING, Holcim, ASM Locations: United States
Chip stocks could return to their bull market highs and beyond, and be the key trade of the fourth quarter, according to Evercore ISI. In fact, Rich Ross, head of technical analysis at the firm, expects there is 20% more upside to semiconductor stocks as represented by the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) into year-end. Similarly, the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) climbed more than 18% this year, about in line with the S & P 500. SOXX 1D mountain iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) But the technical setup is encouraging from here, Ross said. Now that semiconductor stocks have double bottomed above key support levels — a technical pattern that suggests new upside potential — the sector is clear to outperform, he said.
Persons: Rich Ross, Ross Organizations: ISI, VanEck Semiconductor, iShares Semiconductor, Semiconductor, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Micron Technology, Nvidia
"You need to know that a rate cut is never bad for stocks, as long as it's telegraphed," he said. "A large rate cut, as long as it's communicated to the media with plenty of time in a considered way, is also acceptable." Investors were anticipating interest rate cuts for some time, with most convinced the Federal Reserve would issue a September cut, but unsure whether it would be by 25 or 50 basis points. By Thursday's close, Wall Street seemed more confident about the cut. Cramer added that a double rate cut means even more cash will flow in from the sidelines.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Thursday's, Cramer, you'll Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Fed, Big Tech Locations: homebuilding, cyclicals
(This is a wrap-up of the key money moving discussions on CNBC's "Worldwide Exchange" exclusive for Pro subscribers. Worldwide Exchange airs at 5 a.m. Worldwide Exchange Word of the Day: "Dissent" Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets said he's paying close attention to Fed Governor Michelle Bowman becoming the first dissenting Fed Governor since 2005. "I think this is the return of the cyclical trade," said Shah on Worldwide Exchange. Worldwide Exchange Pick: FedEx and Transports FedEx reports after the bell Thursday.
Persons: Jay Woods, Michelle Bowman, Seema Shah, Woods Organizations: Pro, Worldwide, Federal Reserve, Freedom Capital Markets, Management, FedEx, Transports FedEx, Dow
Analysts are increasingly recommending defensive stocks to blunt the impact of an economic slowdown. The S&P 500's consumer staples sector has risen more than 4% in the last month. AdvertisementAmid fears of a recession and increased market volatility, analysts have been pointing to defensive stocks as a safe bet to hedge macro risk. Among defensive sectors — which include things like real estate and financials — investors recently have been pouring into consumer staples in particular. With the Federal Reserve likely to finally cut rates at its meeting this week, defensive stocks could be poised for further growth.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley's, Mike Wilson, Wilson, that's, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian Organizations: Service, Retailers, Walmart, Target, Bank of America, P Global Semiconductor, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Locations: cyclicals
While Wall Street widely expects the Fed to cut rates after its meeting later this week, it remains up in the air how large the cut will be. Some expect a 25 basis-point cut, while others are hoping for a 50 basis-point cut. According to Cramer, investors took profits in tech and bought cyclical stocks because many anticipate a higher rate cut. He suggested that if the Fed decides to cut rates by 0.25%, investors will shift back into tech, and Monday's winners will suffer. It flows right back to where it came from: The tech stocks that got sold today," he said.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, there's, Don't, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Toll Brothers
Ideally the Fed will cut rates by a half-point without triggering growth worries, Morgan Stanley says. According to new research from Morgan Stanley, that would be the best possible outcome for stocks. Ahead of the rate cut, Morgan Stanley suggested that investors increase exposure to two stock cohorts that have historically outperformed in similar environments: defensive and high-quality. Defensive stocks include sectors such as utilities and consumer staples — groups that are less reliant on macroeconomic conditions to perform well. Large caps also tend to outperform small caps both before and after the Fed's first rate cut.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, , Morgan, cyclicals, Wilson Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve
According to Bank of America, one area of the market is set to benefit from increased market volatility: quality stocks, or stocks with strong business models and financial fundamentals. And the cherry on top is that quality stocks — which typically become expensive during downturns — are still cheap despite their recent rally, coming out of a two-decade rut. As seen in the graph below, the high-quality factor serves as a hedge against elevated market volatility. Bank of AmericaQuality is still cheapLuckily for investors, this safe-haven area of the stock market is trading at an attractive valuation. Bank of AmericaWhile quality stocks have recently re-rated to a slight premium, they're still reasonably priced, according to Bank of America.
Persons: , Subramanian, Financials, Schwab Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, PMI, Investors, of, Companies, Equity Locations: of America's
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Monday suggested the Federal Reserve will make a rate cut at its meeting next week, a move that investors have eagerly awaited for some time. We're almost certain to get a rate cut at next week's meeting." The market seemed to recover on Monday following its worst week of 2024 so far, with investors hopeful a rate cut will aid the economy. Cramer reviewed the recent market action, saying Wall Street had not been behaving as it should with rate cuts just on the horizon. "Rather than trying to figure out what's driving these irrational moves, you should focus on buying dips in high-quality stocks," he said.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, payrolls, Cramer Organizations: Reserve, Fed, Dow Jones, Nasdaq
Global markets reached levels of turbulence rarely seen this week, but traders at Goldman Sachs are unfazed and don't believe it is a sign of a big danger lurking. The S & P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average on Monday suffered their biggest one-day declines since 2022. The market then roared back with the S & P 500 posting its biggest gain since 2022 on Thursday. After the late-week comeback, the S & P 500 is only down for the week by about half a percent. .VIX 5D bar Wild week for VIX Goldman traders expect gains going forward, but they see the path higher as a "choppy" one.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Wall Street's, Goldman, VIX Goldman, Morgan Stanley, Eli Lilly, LLY Organizations: Goldman, Dow Jones, Monday, JPMorgan, pharma
Goldman Sachs said the decline in the S&P 500 is historically a good buying opportunity for investors. AdvertisementThe S&P 500's 6% decline over the past three days represents a great buying opportunity for investors, according to a note from Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin. However, despite the decline, the S&P 500 is still up nearly 10% year-to-date and the sell-off sparked a reset in valuations, with the index's forward price-to-earnings multiple falling to 20x. Advertisement"Historical experience shows that investors typically profit when buying the S&P 500 index following a 5% sell-off," Kostin said. The crux of whether a 10% correction in the S&P 500 represents a solid buying opportunity for investors is whether the economy is on the verge of a recession.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , David Kostin, Warren Buffett, Kostin, Goldman Organizations: Apple, Service
Read previewBuying and holding Big Tech stocks has led to great performance in recent years, but this might not be the case going forward. As a result, buy-and-hold investors are probably seeing more red than they'd like in their portfolios right now. AdvertisementBig Tech overexposureIf you hold a lot of Big Tech stocks in your portfolio, you're not alone. Related storiesThere's definitely reason to be bullish on tech overall, especially as AI spurs growth, but overexposure to Big Tech isn't without its drawbacks. According to Subramanian, there's more room for Big Tech to fall, especially if investors don't see AI monetization cases soon.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, overexposure, Subramanian, That's, there's, They're Organizations: Service, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Down, Dow, Business, Bank of America, Microsoft, Meta, Google, Fund, Vanguard, Energy
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