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The worst is behind the commercial real estate sector, according to Blackstone's Jon Gray. AdvertisementThe worst of the commercial real estate turmoil looks to be over, Blackstone president Jon Gray says. Related stories"We said in January, publicly on earnings, that we thought commercial real estate was bottoming. So they're saying to themselves, 'Real estate, oh, I got all this troubled real estate. "If you were an investor in real estate after the financial crisis, you would have made a lot of money.
Persons: Blackstone's Jon Gray, there's, Blackstone, Gray, , Jon Gray, Goldman Sachs, we've, didn't Organizations: Service, Blackstone Locations: CRE, Europe, Asia
Howard Schnapp | Newsday | Getty ImagesThe tide could be turning for commercial real estate. That could give interest rate-sensitive sectors such as commercial real estate long-awaited positive momentum. While lower rates are not a "magic bullet," the easing of the Fed's monetary policy "lays the groundwork for a commercial real estate recovery," analysts wrote in a follow-up report in late September. More than $40 billion in transactions occurred during the second quarter, a 13.9% jump quarter over quarter, but still 9.4% lower year over year, according to real estate data intelligence firm Altus Group. While these dynamics could set the stage for a broader recovery, with some major subsectors such as commercial retail real estate picking up in tandem, the path forward will likely be uneven.
Persons: Howard Schnapp, Alan Todd, Todd, Willy Walker, Walker, Dunlop, what's, Wells, Wells Fargo, , Chad Littell, Littell Organizations: Newsday, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, CNBC, REIT, Real, Board, New York, U.S, Capital Locations: Melville , New York, Wells, U.S, Manhattan, Wells Fargo
Inside Blackstone's growing 'credit juggernaut'
  + stars: | 2024-10-17 | by ( Alex Nicoll | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +7 min
Private lending is now Blackstone's largest business by assets, up 22% since last year. Inside Blackstone's growing "credit juggernaut." By contrast, Blackstone's private-equity business manages $344.7 billion, and its real-estate investing arm, the firm's largest business at the start of the quarter, has $325.1 billion. The largest third-party lenderWhile Blackstone now claims to be the largest third-party credit provider, Apollo is the largest non-bank lender with $562 billion in private credit assets under management. Blackstone's private credit arm has generated 16.7% in returns over the last twelve months, though falling interest rates "put some pressure on absolute returns," Gray said.
Persons: Jon Gray, , Blackstone, Jonathan Gray, CLOs, Gray, Steve Schwarzman, that's, We're, It's, Schwarzman Organizations: Service, Blackstone, Canada, Plan Investment Locations: New York, Asia, Pacific
Advertisement"The banks are going to have to dispose of that real estate," Barkham told Business Insider in an interview. John Vavas, a real estate finance attorney at Polsinelli who works with commercial real estate lenders, has worked on a handful of office-to-residential conversion deals this year. There's around 1.2 billion square feet worth of office space that could be spun into residential space, Yardi said in a separate report. Late payments on commercial real estate loans have climbed to 1.42% in the second quarter, the highest rate in nearly 10 years. Commercial real estate prices, meanwhile, dropped another 9% year-over-year in the first quarter, Fed data shows.
Persons: , Richard Barkham, Barkham, RentCafe, John Vavas, Yardi, Vavas Organizations: Service, Federal, Silverstein Properties, Washington DC Locations: New York, United States, New York City, Dallas, Chicago, Los Angeles
Federal Reserve interest rate cuts may help turn the tide for commercial real estate. "Lower interest rates are not a magic bullet, but less restrictive monetary policy lays the groundwork for a commercial real estate recovery," wrote senior economist Charlie Dougherty. "Decreased long-term interest rates appear to be easing upward pressure on cap rates and slowing declines in property valuations. "That said, reduced interest rates should prevent distress from spreading and shorten the hurdles coming down the road," he added. Gimple specifically likes single-asset, single-borrower CMBS and commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Charlie Dougherty, Dougherty, Douglas Gimple, Gimple, It's, that's Organizations: Treasury, Companies, Fed Locations: Central, Diamond, Los Angeles, New York, Miami, Hawaii
Morgan Stanley is pounding the table on several stocks as investors wait to see if October markets are tumultous or quiet. Morgan Stanley said that even though recent data shows that total cold storage inventory has been down, Lineage still sees plenty of room for growth. Morgan Stanley walked away from Thermo's recent analyst day raving about the stock. Overseas growth, especially in China, remains subdued for now, but Morgan Stanley is optimistic that the latest China stimulus will improve the economic outlook. In addition, Morgan Stanley sees a "significant runway" for higher margins as the Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Ronald Kamdem, Kamdem, Tejas Savant, Savant, Manan Gosalia, CRE, Gosalia Organizations: T Bank, Taiwan Semiconductor, Tejas, T, Buffalo, MTB, Federal Reserve, Taiwan Locations: U.S, China
The Club has stayed with Morgan Stanley on expectations that its investment banking outfit will flourish again. At Wells Fargo , the Club's other financial name, lower rates should help its burgeoning investment banking business. Wells Fargo shares year-to-date have performed better than Morgan Stanley, gaining 11%. WFC YTD mountain Wells Fargo (WFC) year-to-date performance The Corporate and Investment Banking division makes up 23% of overall revenue. To be sure, Wells Fargo management said during July's second-quarter earnings call that the bank will continue to de-risk its office portfolio.
Persons: Banks, Erica Groshen, Morgan Stanley, Morgan, Jim Cramer, Jim, Goldman Sachs, Charlie Scharf, Wells, July's, Jim Cramer's, Jerome Powell, William McChesney Martin, Chip Somodevilla Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, CNBC, Cornell University, Fed, Investment, Morgan Stanley's Institutional Securities, Morgan Stanley's, Wells, Investment Banking, CIB, Federal Reserve Bank, Getty Locations: Wells Fargo, Wells, Washington ,
Read previewOffices have been the weak spot in the commercial real estate market since the pandemic gave rise to widespread remote work and caused companies to reassess how much space they need. The Federal Reserve's likely interest rate cut, expected at the end of its meeting on September 18, could give office owners some relief with lower interest rates when they refinance. But that doesn't mean they're in the clear, according to commercial real estate experts. Right now, most commercial real estate loans come from small, regional banks, but that could change. AdvertisementYet even with the weakness in the office market, lower interest rates are a net positive for the industry, economist Richard McGahey says.
Persons: , Lisa Pendergast, Pendergast, Lisa Knee, Knee, It's, Richard McGahey, McGahey Organizations: Service, Business, CRE Finance
Downtown Campo is an hour away from San Diego in California. Downtown Campo has 28 buildingsThe listing for downtown Campo includes three separate parcels totaling about 16 acres. HMBD Real Estate MarketingRay first purchased the property in 2000 when he lived in San Diego. HMBD Real Estate MarketingHernandez echoed that sentiment, saying locals mentioned renovating the local basketball court and a new playground. AdvertisementHernandez said he's had offers from a mix of interested parties, including traditional real estate investors and people pitching unique concepts.
Persons: , Deborah Jean Peck, I've, Peck, Campo, John Ray, Nick Hernandez, " Hernandez, Marketing Ray, He's, Ray, Hernandez, Marketing Hernandez, who's, he's, Tony Hawk Organizations: Service, Campo, Business, Downtown, Campo Baptist Church, Marketing, Cleveland National Forest, Campo Metal, Campo hasn't, downtown Locations: Campo, San Diego, Downtown Campo, California, HMBD, Las Vegas, Coast, Mexico, Canada, downtown Campo
Regional bank stocks are breaking out, and they may be able to continue to climb even if second-quarter earnings results are modest. The SPDR S & P Regional Bank ETF (KRE) has risen for six straight trading sessions, and on Monday it closed at its highest level since December. KRE 1Y mountain This regional bank ETF is at its highest level since December. The group still trades below historical valuations more than a year after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Bank of America said. Notable regional bank earnings reports this week include Citizens Financial Group on Wednesday, M & T Bank on Thursday and Fifth Third Bancorp on Friday.
Persons: Ebrahim Poonawala, Banks, Poonawala, Goldman, Ryan Nash, Nash, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: P Regional Bank ETF, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bank of America, Silicon Valley Bank, Western Alliance, WAL, York, Citizens Financial Group, T Bank, Fifth Third Bancorp Locations: Silicon
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStay selective in the REIT market, says Morgan Stanley's Ron KamdemRon Kamdem, Morgan Stanley head of U.S. REITs and CRE research, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the downtrodden real estate market.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Ron Kamdem Ron Kamdem, Morgan Stanley
The rout in the real estate market has presented an opportunity for long-term investors, according to UBS. Real estate is the only one of 11 main groups in the S & P 500 that has fallen in 2024, sliding 4.7%. .SPLRCR YTD mountain S & P 500 Real Estate Sector year to date Real estate investment trusts , or REITs, also pay attractive dividends, with an average yield of 4.2%, according to UBS. However, the REIT is the world's largest owner of industrial properties, such as warehouses — and the industrial sector remains strong, Woloshin said. Alexandria Real Estate Equities yields 4.4% and is down more than 7% year to date.
Persons: Jonathan Woloshin, Woloshin, Prologis Organizations: UBS, Real, Alexandria Real Locations: CRE, Alexandria
The threat from a looming wave of maturing commercial real estate loans has been well telegraphed to investors, but it's possible the metrics they are using to protect themselves from risk are flawed. Many investors have been avoiding bank stocks with high concentrations of commercial real estate (CRE) exposure. Investors have been punishing regional bank stocks, especially when the bank's commercial real estate exposure tops more than 300% of its total equity . While the latter two have some exposure to New York City real estate, both banks benefit from strong management teams, he said. (New York real estate markets are navigating both falling office values as well as the dynamics of rent-regulated multifamily properties.)
Persons: Erika Najarian, Stephens, Matt Breese, Breese, Webster, Najarian, Piper Sandler, Scott Siefers, Siefers, generalists Organizations: Owners, KBW, Regional Banking, UBS, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Federal Reserve, Kansas City Fed, NBT Bancorp, Webster, National Bancorp, Micron Technology, Financial Group, Citizens Locations: New York City, York, . Connecticut, New, New York, Providence, R.I
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are 'pockets of opportunities' in REITs despite 2024 headwinds: Morgan Stanley's Ron KamdemRon Kamdem, Morgan Stanley head of U.S. REITs and CRE research, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss how interest rates have affected the REIT market, which REITs might hold the most potential, and more.
Persons: Morgan Stanley's Ron Kamdem Ron Kamdem, Morgan Stanley Locations: REITs
This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. We found the firm has been spending on distressed real estate, such as its purchase of loans from the FDIC after the failure of Signature Bank, as well as investments in buzzy real estate, like data centers. In a January earnings call, Blackstone president Jonathan Gray announced that commercial real estate, which recently suffered its biggest price declines in half a century, could soon hit bottom. "While it will take time, we can see the pillars of a real estate recovery coming into place." Here are the 7 recent real estate and real-estate-adjacent deals that show how Blackstone is trying to get ahead of the CRE bottom in chronological order.
Persons: Jon Gray, Blackstone, Gray, Jonathan Gray Organizations: Business, Signature Bank
CNBC Pro combed through Bank of America research to find the firm's favorite buy-rated stocks ahead of company earnings. They include: CoStar Group, Fidelity National Information Services, Cisco, Home Depot and Adobe. Bank of America upgraded the stock to buy from neutral earlier this week, citing several positive catalysts. "A growth company buying a growth company," he said of the deal. Home Depot "A growth company buying a growth company.
Persons: Tal Liani, Liani, Robert Ohmes, Ohmes, Jason Kupferberg, Kupferberg Organizations: Bank of America, CNBC, Fidelity National Information Services, Cisco, Home, Adobe, Cisco Time, Home Depot, Fidelity National Information, FIS Locations: Bank, Atlanta, buybacks
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBanks are well positioned for CRE concerns, says Baird's David GeorgeDavid George, Baird bank analyst, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the banking sector and which banks he's looking at as winners in the sector.
Persons: Banks, Baird's David George David George, Baird
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBenefit Street's Richard Byrne talks finding opportunity in the CRE debt spaceRichard Byrne, Benefit Street Partners president, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk commercial real estate, the borrowing environment, recent comments from Jamie Dimon and more.
Persons: Richard Byrne, Jamie Dimon Organizations: Street Partners
Plus, falling interest rates and continued economic growth would be tailwinds. The aforementioned catalysts are still in place — including interest rate cuts, as investors discovered a day earlier. Until then, the firm believes bank stocks can outperform into the first-quarter earnings season. 6 regional bank stocks worth buyingThe continued rally in financials will be powered in large part by regional banks, BofA believes. "We see the capital markets momentum continuing into 2025, which should drive investor interest in both stocks," Poonawala wrote.
Persons: Financials, Ebrahim Poonawala, Poonawala, BofA, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Charlie Scharf, Jamie Dimon Organizations: of America, Business, Federal Reserve, Investors, Bank of America, First Bancorp, FNB Corp, Truist, US Bancorp, Western Alliance, JPMorgan, Wall, titans Locations: financials, Wells Fargo
In today's big story, we're looking at why the economy has most consumers feeling like they are stuck in place . A "trapped in place" economy is in full swing. Bad buying conditions coupled with everyday high prices means consumers can't make any major life changes , writes Business Insider's Emily Stewart. But it's not the only area of the economy that's stuck, Emily writes. So, while consumers lament being stuck in place, they should also avoid getting stuck looking to the past.
Persons: , Rebecca Zisser, Emily Stewart, it's, Emily, gunning, It's, Jerome Powell's, Tyler Le, Steve Mnuchin, Brian Moynihan, Instagram, Jensen Huang, Chelsea Jia Feng, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb, George Glover Organizations: Service, Business, Tech, Federal, Wall Street, Investors, Blackstone, JPMorgan, MLB, Bank of America, mojo, Nvidia, Astera Labs, NASDAQ Locations: It's, Chelsea, New York, London
That's not to say predictions of a commercial real estate rebound are a sure bet. Here are four signs that support Gray's prediction that the commercial real estate market may be bottoming. (New York Community Bank had previously purchased $2.7 billion in Signature's loans and deposits, but not the real estate loans.) According to David Seifert, partner at private equity real estate firm Velocis, there are some sweet deals to be had in secondary sales of private-equity funds tied to real estate. The road aheadWhere Gray sees signs of bottoming, others think commercial real estate has much further to fall.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Buffett, Paul Getty, Getty, Steve Mnuchin —, Blackstone, Mnuchin, Donald Trump's, George Soros, John Paulson, It's, Jonathan Gray, Jim Garman, That's, Barry Sternlicht, Gray, Tracy Chen, Chen, BGO, secondaries There's, Ares, Brian King, King, David Seifert, Seifert, Velocis, Goldman Sachs, Dan McNamara, McNamara, Scott Rechler, wallop, Janet Yellen, Rechler, there's Organizations: Business, Goldman, Reuters, Starwood, Brandywine Global, Federal Reserve, . Bank, New York Community Bank, FDIC, Signature Bank, Community Bank, Fund Management, Community Preservation, New, Commercial Observer, Blackstone, Homes, Digital Realty, Polpo, RXR Locations: Blackstone, , New York, New York, BREIT, Real, Velocis
Delinquent assets are taking over investment products that bundle risky commercial real estate debt, Bloomberg reported. Issuers are extending maturities and buying back delinquent loans. Between 2019 and 2021, CLO issuance skyrocketed from $19 billion to $45 billion, Bloomberg found. Others are using cash reserves to buy out delinquent loans, purchasing a record $1.3 billion last year, according to JPMorgan estimates cited by the outlet. AdvertisementIssues with CLOs reflect a bigger theme in commercial real estate, as even investment grade projects face debt concerns.
Persons: , CLOs Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Investment, JPMorgan, Barclays
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNaftali Group CEO on CRE: Conversion cost is too high for many older commercial buildingsMiki Naftali, Naftali Group chair and CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss real estate opportunities in New York, luxury condo trends in Miami, and more.
Persons: Miki Naftali, Naftali Organizations: Naftali Group Locations: New York, Miami
But where banks' exposure to commercial real estate is concerned, locating that fire may be difficult. Rising interest rates quickly increased the cost of borrowing for investors in commercial real estate, including offices and multifamily homes. It doesn't reveal details such as borrowers' track records, said Mark Hillis, a former chief risk officer for commercial real estate at JPMorgan. There's also varying concentration risk: the largest banks with commercial real estate exposure are more diversified, meaning that any losses won't be as devastating, Baker said. "We think very few banks will run into issues just from their commercial real estate exposure," Reidy said.
Persons: Michael Barr, Jerome Powell, Todd Baker, Mark Hillis, Clifford Rossi, Robert H, Rossi, Baker, There's, Hillis, multifamily, haven't, You'll, Banks, you'll, Rebel Cole, NYCB, Matt Reidy, Reidy, Cole Organizations: Federal Reserve, Business, York Community Bank, SEC, Richman Center for Business, Law, Columbia University, JPMorgan, Smith, Smith School of Business, University of Maryland, Mortgage Banker's Association, Bank, Signature Bank, First, Countrywide Bank, Washington Mutual, Citigroup, multifamily, Florida Atlantic University, Federal, Regulators, TCRE, Equity RCRE, Community Bank, Provident Bank NJ, Merchants Bank of Indiana, Apple Bank for Savings, Oceanfirst Bank, Independent Bank, Lakeland Bank NJ, Ozk, Washington Federal Bank WA, Axos Bank, Sandy Spring Bank, Columbia Bank NJ, Farmers, Merchants Bank of CA, Popular Bank, Pacific Premier Bank, United Bank, Trust, Rockland Trust, Umpqua Bank, ServisFirst Bank, Bell Bank, Stellar Bank, National Bank of, National Bank of Florida FL, New York Community Bank Locations: multifamily, Basel, CRE, California, Rockland, National Bank of Florida
A real estate boss expects at least 500 banks to fail or be taken over in the next two years. Scott Rechler, CEO of RXR, said the maturing of commercial real estate loans would hit smaller lenders. Commercial real estate has been hit by declining asset prices, costlier borrowing, and tighter lending. AdvertisementHundreds of American banks will collapse or be taken over by 2026, a top real estate executive predicted. Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank folded last spring after worries about their health spurred a wave of deposit withdrawals.
Persons: Scott Rechler, , Fortune, I'm, It's, Jamie Dimon's Organizations: Service, Deposit Insurance Corporation, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Silvergate Bank, New, New York Community, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Locations: New York
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