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☆ The real reason for copper's record-shattering rally, according to one trading firm
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Copper's rise to more than $11,000 a ton isn't supported by fundamentals, according to trading firm Trafigura. AdvertisementSupply and demand fundamentals haven't been enough to support copper's sky-high rally. Instead, the commodity's massive bull run is thanks to expectations of interest-rate cuts, according to the commodity-trading firm Trafigura. The pattern isn't exclusive to copper only, as other metals have also disassociated from their fundamentals in 2024, Rahim said. According to Bloomberg, Trafigura is an entrenched copper bull, forecasting in 2021 that the industrial metal could eventually hit $15,000 a ton.

Persons: —, Saad Rahim, Rahim, Trafigura, Jeff Currie Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg

☆ Copper longer-term is the best commodity out there, says Carlyle's Jeff Currie
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCopper longer-term is the best commodity out there, says Carlyle's Jeff CurrieJeffrey Currie, chief strategy officer of the energy pathways team at Carlyle Group, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the most exciting trades happening now, if copper's growth is about episodic investment cycles, and more.

Persons: Jeff Currie Jeffrey Currie Organizations: Carlyle Group

☆ Miner Anglo American rejects third takeover offer from rival BHP Group as talks deadline extended
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

(Photo by William WEST / AFP) (Photo by WILLIAM WEST/AFP via Getty Images)LONDON — Anglo American rejected a third takeover proposal from rival BHP Group on Wednesday, as the companies agreed to extend talks deadline by one week. The British miner confirmed the third proposal from BHP offered about £29.34 per Anglo American share, based on undisturbed share prices as of market close on April 23. Shares of Anglo American were up 0.35% shortly after the announcement, while BHP shares fell over 3.4%. The combined companies would form a behemoth in copper mining and the world's largest player in the space, supplying 10% of global output, according to a Reuters analysis. Anglo rejected both previous offers, however, saying that they "significantly undervalue the company and its future prospects."

Persons: Stuart Chambers, Chambers, Duncan Wanblad Organizations: BHP, William WEST, WILLIAM WEST, Getty, BHP Group, London Stock Exchange, Limited, Iron Ore Limited, Rio Tinto Locations: Melbourne, Australian, AFP, American, London, Australia

☆ 3 reasons why buying copper right now is the best trade one commodity expert has ever seen
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-19 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Copper "is the most compelling trade I have ever seen," Carlyle's Jeff Currie said on the Odd Lots podcast. He thinks the metal's massive mismatch in supply and demand could push its price up to $15,000 a ton. AdvertisementCopper supply issues are making the metal considerably more expensive, says commodities veteran Jeff Currie, who is very bullish on the opportunity. He later added: "I just quote many of our clients and other market participants say it's the highest conviction trade they've ever seen." Though not necessarily part of his acronym, artificial intelligence is also amplifying industry demand, Currie mentioned.

Persons: Carlyle's Jeff Currie, Currie, —, Jeff Currie, Carlyle, Currie —, Goldman Sachs, policy's, copper's, deglobalization Organizations: Industry, Service, Bloomberg, US, BHP Locations: China, Panama

☆ Income investors hate dividend cuts, but here's why they could provide an attractive opportunity in some cases
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Dividend stocks usually take a hit when they decrease their payouts, but investors may not want to count some of them out, according to Morgan Stanley. While many companies instituted large dividend decreases, there are several that announced dividend cuts of 30% or less. Shares of Annaly are up 1% in 2024, and the dividend yield is 13.3%. That's about a 20% quarter-over-quarter decrease, per Morgan Stanley. Shares are up 10% this year, and they offer a dividend yield of 0.4%.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Todd Castagno, Castango, Russell, David Finkelstein, Raul Jacob Ruisanchez Organizations: Annaly Capital Management, Southern Locations: Southern

REUTERS/Ivan Alvarado/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 6 (Reuters) - The copper market will transition from supply-demand balance in 2023 to a major supply surplus next year, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said after its meeting in Lisbon this week. However, its assessment chimes with a copper market consensus that Chinese demand has surprised to the upside this year. It has trimmed only very slightly its 2024 global usage growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.7%. Operating constraints and smelter maintenance outages in Chile, Indonesia, Sweden and the United States will cap copper production outside of China this year. It's worth noting that the ICSG's most recent monthly bulletin suggests the global copper market notched up a hefty 215,000-metric ton production surplus in the first seven months of 2023.

Persons: Ivan Alvarado, Everyone's, Andy Home, Susan Fenton Organizations: BHP Billiton's Escondida, REUTERS, Study, Shanghai Metal, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Antofagasta, Chile, Lisbon, China, North America, Europe, United States, Indonesia, Sweden, India

Last trading at $7,990 per metric ton, London copper is now within sight of the year-to-date lows of $7,867-7,871 recorded in late May. Investment fund positioning on CME copper contractBEARS FLEX MUSCLES ON CMEFund positioning on the CME copper contract has oscillated between long and short for several months as the price chopped around in a sideways range. Outright long copper positions have been slashed from 63,665 contracts at the start of September to 35,050 as of the Sept. 26 close. Net positioning has shifted to a collective short of 3,051 contracts, just shy of the 3,228-contract peak 2023 short in June. It's worth noting that the "other financial" reporting category, which includes index funds, is still in modest net long territory.

Persons: Kim Hong, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: REUTERS, Fund, London Metal Exchange, Investors, Investment, CME, Bulls, Reuters, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Gunsan, South Korea, London, U.S, United States, Tuesday's

The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price has been oscillating in a $7,800-8,870 per metric ton range since May as old and new price drivers compete. The gyration in net positioning is partly a reflection of copper's own choppy range-trading with many black box funds configured to react to changes in directional momentum. Money managers have lifted outright short positions on CME copper to 69,707 contracts, the largest collective bear bet on lower prices since early 2020. The net short position of 18,127 contracts is a sign the bears are in the ascendancy. The key takeaway from speculative positioning on both U.S. and London markets is that fund players are betting bigger on copper.

Persons: Ricardo Moreno, San Pedro de Barva, Juan Carlos Ulate, Long, Copper, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, London Metal Exchange, CME, Zhongrong International, Co, Fund, Thomson, Reuters Locations: San Pedro, Costa Rica, China, Beijing, London, United States, Europe

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Copper's electrical conductivity makes it a core component of the green energy transition, whether it be in the form of solar panels, electric vehicles or wind turbines. Which begs the question of where it might be if funds were collectively to buy into the green copper story. Fund positioning on the CME copper contractCHOPPY COPPERMoney manager net positioning on the CME copper contract has been flipping between long and short in recent weeks as LME copper chops around in a $8,140-8,870 range. China's recovery has disappointed copper bulls and funds shifted to the short side in May, coinciding with LME copper hitting the lower end of its trading range. Both volumes and open interest have perked up this year, but the driver appears to have been the China reopening story rather than the longer-term green energy narrative.

Persons: Conor Humphries Organizations: Citi, London Metal Exchange, CME, Traders, Shanghai Futures Exchange, Reuters, Thomson Locations: China

The strong ramp-up in sales for EVs, led by growth in China, means copper demand will continue to grow for the remainder of the decade, but innovation in EVs has emerged as a limiting factor, according to two recent forecasts. In a report this week, Goldman Sachs said EVs accounted for two-thirds of the global demand growth in copper last year. "Some of the projections out there have been very aggressive in terms of potential green energy demand (for copper)." Goldman Sachs called innovation in batteries and the potential shift to higher voltage systems like Tesla's "the main threat to copper's EV demand leverage." It expects copper demand for EVs to be 1 million metric tons this year and 2.8 million by 2030.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Robert Edwards, Tesla, Elon Musk, CRU's Edwards, Mai Nguyen, Kevin Krolicki, Emelia Sithole Organizations: EVs, CRU Group, London Metal Exchange, Thomson Locations: HANOI, China, EVs, Hanoi, Singapore

☆ Goldman Sachs says rising EV usage to power higher copper demand
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

July 6 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said rising usage of electric vehicles (EV) was a "key pillar of copper's bullish story", forecasting copper demand from the sector to amount to 1 million tonnes (mt) this year, rising to 1.5 mt in 2025. Last year, EV production accounted for about two-thirds of the increase in global copper demand, with EVs likely accounting for about 27% of additional copper consumption over the next decade, the bank said. Goldman said its analysts were optimistic about EVs, anticipating "strong sales in China, driven by lower prices and a high demand for EVs that has been building up over the rest of 2023." Benchmark copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) lost 7.5% in the second quarter of 2023 due to a slow recovery in demand in China and concerns over global economic growth. However, copper usage in EVs could fall in the longer term, with the amount of copper used per EV likely falling to 65 kg per unit by 2030, compared with 73 kg in 2022, the bank said.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Anushree Ashish Mukherjee, David Holmes Organizations: London Metal Exchange, Thomson Locations: EVs, China, Bengaluru

☆ Why copper's 12% surge over the past month could signal bright times ahead for the broader economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Copper prices have jumped as much as 12% from their May 25 low, and that could signal green shoots for the economy. Copper prices have long been viewed as a leading economic indicator because it is utilized in various sectors of the economy. Essentially, rising copper prices could signal increased demand and therefore increased economic activity, and vice versa for when copper prices fall. But rising copper prices aren't always driven by an increase in demand for the commodity, and could instead be impacted by other factors. Sosnick also said that recent interest rate cuts in China could be impacting copper prices more so than broad economic strength "since other key commodities like oil are hardly signaling economic strength."

Persons: Ryan Detrick, —, Katie Stockton, Stockton, Ryan Detrick wouldn't, he's, Detrick, Tom Lee, Steve Sosnick, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Carson Group, Interactive Locations: Stockton, China

Outright short positions have mushroomed by 68% to 58,157 contracts in the space of three weeks. Outright long positions have been scaled back to 41,987 contracts, almost half the level of the February peak when investors were betting on a full-throttle post-COVID recovery in China. Fund managers are now net short of CME copper to the tune of 16,170 contracts, the largest collective bear bet since August last year. Investment funds have slashed their net long positioning from 25,737 contracts on April 14 to just 4,813 contracts as of May 5. Investment funds slash LME copper long positions as mood turns bearishWEAK RECOVERYChina's recovery from the stringent zero-COVID policy of last year has so far fallen short of expectations from a metals perspective.

LONDON, May 10 (Reuters) - The global copper market is facing another year of supply deficit, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). The Group's April forecast is for a supply shortfall of 114,000 tonnes this year after a 431,000-tonne deficit in 2022. The calculation could easily be thrown off, since it is based on changes in visible inventory combined with China's net imports of refined metal. Last year's elevated net imports served to inflate China's apparent usage. A 16.4% slump in net imports over the first quarter of this year will do the reverse.

☆ How 2 Silicon Valley vets are upending traditional venture capital with an investing model the industry hasn't seen before
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Vishal Persaud | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The pair then decided to launch a venture firm, Fiat Ventures, with fintech vet Marcos Fernandez. After stints at buzzy startups in Silicon Valley, the two college buds are now making a name for themselves as the cofounders of the growth consultancy firm, Fiat Growth, and its sister venture firm, Fiat Ventures. In the case of Fiat Growth and Fiat Ventures, they have "reverse engineered" this model, where Fiat Growth acts in some ways like a platform team for its sister venture fund. Using this firsthand knowledge about industry trends and insight in startups with investing potential, Fiat Growth often passes this intel on to Fiat Ventures. How it all beganBefore cofounding Fiat Growth and Fiat Ventures, Glover and Harris became friends while on the football team at the University of California, Berkeley.

China's refined copper imports and exportsIMPORT SLUMPChina imported 408,174 tonnes of copper in March, down by 19% year-on-year and the lowest monthly intake since October. The preliminary customs report aggregates arrivals of refined metal, anode, alloy and semi-manufactured products. The country also imported 1.8 million tonnes of recyclable materials, the largest amount since 2018, and a record 25.3 million tonnes of mined concentrates. National refined copper output rose by 11% year-on-year in January-February, according to the country's official statistics body. So far this year it seems to have lost its appetite for more refined copper.

LONDON, March 27 (Reuters) - Funds have dumped their bets on higher copper prices as the turbulence triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank continues to roil financial markets. The investment community has turned net short of CME copper for the first time in five months, while funds have cut their long exposure on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Investors' negativity towards Doctor Copper contrasts with the bullish headlines generated by the FT Commodities Global Summit. Investment funds bought into copper in January, the net long position expanding from 11,830 to 32,397 contracts at the end of the month. Bulls such as Trafigura and Goldman Sachs contend it's a very thin inventory cushion if China rediscovers its copper mojo.

☆ Major copper producers unveil plan to reach net zero emissions by 2050
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MELBOURNE, March 7 (Reuters) - A group of the world's biggest copper producers said it aimed to slash direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050, in a move that could make the sector more attractive to environmentally-conscious investment funds. Members include BHP Group (BHP.AX) Chile's Codelco, Glencore (GLEN.L), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.N), Japan's JX Nippon Mining & Metals Corporation and Poland's KGHM (KGH.WA). There are no members from China, the world's biggest producer of refined copper. The copper producers plan to reduce direct and indirect emissions by decarbonising power supply, improving efficiency and scrap collection. Emissions produced by the copper industry as a whole represent 0.2% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

China's net refined copper imports and year-on-year changeBOOMING IMPORTSThe strength of last year's imports was even more surprising given the financial problems at privately-owned Maike Group. But it has clearly had minimal impact on the overall flow of refined copper into China. But China's imports of Russian copper actually fell by 20% to 324,000 tonnes in 2022. China's net imports of refined copper were running below year-earlier levels through May but steadily accelerated over the second part of the year. Goldman suggests that a sign of restocking by China's copper sector would be net refined imports being consistently higher than 280,000 tonnes per month.

Currently trading around $9,130, the copper price is up by 9.6% since the start of January. Investors played copper from the short side for much of last year, if they were prepared to engage at all. The funds' sudden return is a sign that many are betting on a much sunnier outlook. "To the degree these short positions have not already covered, this may support copper in the short term", the bank said. It's clear, though, that copper long positioning is primarily a bet on Chinese recovery, underpinned by measures to revitalise a foundering property sector and more metals-intensive green infrastructure.

Money manager positioning on the CME's copper contract shifted back to a net long at the start of November for the first time since early May. Bulls remain conspicuous by their absence, waiting to see how Doctor Copper prices the confusing combination of Western recession and tentative recovery in China. The bounce has forced an unwind of fund short positions, which have more than halved to 31,177 contracts as of last Tuesday. Bears have retracted their claws on both exchanges but there's been no corresponding surge in bullish exuberance among fund managers. Investment fund and other financial net positioning on LME copperRECOVERY AND RECESSIONFunds' reticence to commit to copper is understandable given the market is trying to price two conflicting trends.

LONDON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - A wave of new copper mine supply is washing through the market, with smelters reaping the benefits in higher treatment and refining charges (TCRCs). Annual benchmark copper smelter treatment and refining chargesNEW MINES, OLD PROBLEMSOnly two major copper mines were brought on stream between 2017 and 2021, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Moreover, what is not produced for whatever reason in 2022 will be deferred into 2023, when the ICSG expects the world's copper mines to produce 5.3% more metal. While mined production was up by 3.5% in January-September, refined copper production growth lagged at 2.3%, according to the latest ICSG estimates. Glencore says it can raise its copper production by around 60% to 1.6 million tonnes per year through relatively low-cost brownfield expansions.

Small-scale copper miners are now challenging Big Copper for territorial control of rich deposits of the red metal. In Peru, artisanal mining permits have doubled to 80,000 since 2020, government records show. Peru's leftist administration presented a new framework for artisanal mining last week that declared artisanal mining is "as important" as big mining. "Where we have concessions we can't have (artisanal mining permits)," Rojas said. The number of valid artisanal mining permits in Tapairihua has fallen from 100 to 32 since May, according to government records.

☆ Freeport-McMoRan profit plunges on weak copper prices
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Joseph White | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Oct 20 (Reuters) - Copper miner Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX.N) on Thursday reported a plunge in third-quarter profit, as recession fears and COVID-19 lockdowns in China hit the red metal's prices. The Phoenix-based mining giant said average realized price for copper dropped 16.7% to $3.50 per pound at the end of the third quarter, compared to last year. However, the miner's adjusted profit was 26 cents per share, 2 cents above Wall Street estimates, according to Refinitiv data. The company, which runs Indonesia's Grasberg, one of the world's largest copper mines, said its quarterly copper production rose 7% to 1.06 billion recoverable pounds. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Arshreet Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju SamuelOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

REUTERS/Kham/File PhotoLONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - While the rest of the world worries about recession, China is steadily increasing its imports of physical copper. The country's net call on refined copper from the rest of the world was up by 9.8% in the first eight months of the year. China's imports of copper scrapSCRAP AND CONCENTRATES IMPORTS UPThe restocking momentum is also travelling down copper raw materials import channels. GREEN DEMAND DRIVERChina's copper import hunger appears unsated. The sign-posting of more government investment in decarbonisation is a major reason for China's copper buyers to feel confident about restocking physical units at current price levels.

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