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A contrarian sell signal recently flashed in the stock market, according to Bank of America. AdvertisementA sell signal in the stock market just flashed for the first time since February 2021, according to a note from Bank of America. The sell signal has typically preceded weak returns in the short term. The sell signal from Bank of America flashes at a time when stocks are trading near record highs. As to potential risks in the market, investors are most worried about geopolitical conflicts, which rose to 33% from 19% last month.
Persons: BofA, , Michael Hartnett, Jun, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Service Locations: China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailUS, China stimulus are good news for emerging markets: Portfolio managerDerrick Irwin of Allspring Global Investments sees stimulus from the U.S. and China as big factors that can drive growth for emerging economies. He also shares his top picks in the emerging-market space, one of them he describes as a contrarian call.
Persons: Derrick Irwin Organizations: Allspring Global Investments Locations: China, U.S
The S&P 500 and Vanguard's Total Stock Market Index Fund have surged over 30% in 2024. GuruFocus tracks top investors' stock picks, highlighting 15 popular stocks among gurus. The stock market has boom-and-bust cycles and periods of sector rotations. Some have taken to copying the so-called investing gurus of our world. The bucket of allocators adds up to more than 140 investors and funds, including Buffett and Fisher.
Persons: Ken Fisher, Warren Buffett, contrarian, , it's, He's, Buffett, Fisher Organizations: Market, Service, Market Index
As investors consider whether — and how — to invest in China, two experts share their views on the market right now. "We believe the scale and focus of these measures, particularly the targeted liquidity injection, address the critical issue of insufficient domestic capital flows into China's stock market. 'China is no longer cheap' Lorraine Tan, director of Asia's equity research at Morningstar, is more cautious looking ahead. "At this point in time, China markets are no longer cheap. Stocks on her radar include "higher quality, moaty names," such as fast-food restaurant chain Yum China Holdings and property developer China Resources Land .
Persons: Jingwei Chen, , Europe —, Chen, Lorraine Tan, Tan, Stocks, — CNBC's Lim Hui Jie Organizations: National, Reform Commission, CSI, Wall, Wrise Private Singapore, CNBC Pro, Companies, BYD, Tencent Holdings, Morningstar, China Holdings, China Resources Locations: China, Asia, East, Europe, Hong Kong
Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Källenius says automakers need to hunker down if they want to beat the Chinese. Ford's CEO, meanwhile, called the Chinese auto industry an "existential threat" after a visit to the country in May. When it comes to competing in the EV market, Western automakers have been left playing a game of catch-up with the Chinese. Chinese automakers like BYD have been expanding into Southeast Asian countries like Thailand, as well as developing markets like Brazil and Mexico. The crippling trade restrictions effectively shut them out of the US auto market.
Persons: Ola Källenius, Källenius, , Mercedes, isn't, Jim Farley, Farley wasn't, Farley, John Lawler, Lawler Organizations: Mercedes, Benz, Service, Ford, Berlin Global, EV, Källenius, Business Insider, Wall Street, Changan Automobile, Research, BI, European Union, Financial Times Locations: China, Thailand, Brazil, Mexico, Western
Here are 33 of the firm's favorite stocks heading into a pivotal fourth quarter. Therefore, it's no shock that those growth stocks are responsible for the market's lofty valuation. AdvertisementMorningstar33 top stocks to ownIn Morningstar's fourth-quarter note, the firm designated 33 stocks as its top picks across sectors and groups like cyclicals, defensives, and economically sensitive companies. "To outperform, we think investors will need to look for contrarian investments and story stocks," Sekera wrote. Along with each company is its ticker, market capitalization, group, sector, rating, price target, upside to that target, and selected commentary from Morningstar.
Persons: , Dave Sekera, Morningstar, Sekera Organizations: Morningstar, Service, Stocks
He criticizes the US for high debt and low growth, leading a fragile financial system. He highlighted the four categories of debt-based countries: those with low growth and high or low debt, and those with high growth and high or low debt. The US is in the category of low growth and high debt. However, if a country accumulates high debt, then continued growth is required to absorb it, he noted. At present, Taleb doesn't believe that the ballooning debt could be solved politically or by increased demand for US bonds.
Persons: Nassim Taleb, , Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Scott Patterson, Patterson, Taleb, It's, Brandon Yarckin, isn't, Mark Spitznagel Organizations: Service, Universa Investments, Bank Locations: Russia, US
Recent hiccups for Nvidia could be the start of broader weakness for the artificial intelligence boom, and investors should consider dialing back their exposure to the stock, according to one small equity research shop. But last quarter sequential growth slowed again and now I'm concerned that it can continue to slow in Q3 and Q4. Elazar is not completely alone in being skeptical of Nvidia, but it's definitely a contrarian stance. Of the 64 analysts tracked by LSEG, 58 have buy or strong buy ratings on Nvidia, with the remaining six having hold ratings. Nvidia's stock is up 700% since the start of 2023, so being bullish has been the right call for Wall Street analysts.
Persons: Elazar, Chaim Siegel, Blackwell, it's Organizations: Nvidia, Elazar Advisors, Wall Street Locations: decel
When a stock or ETF becomes overbought, it can maintain that condition for an extended period. In the one-year daily chart of Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) below, I've highlighted two similar instances from the past. RSI (Relative Strength Index): As a stock rises, the relative strength index (RSI) measures the strength of the trend. Once in overbought territory, it's advisable to wait until the RSI falls back below 70 before considering a contrarian trade. The trade To benefit from a pullback in XLY, the trade structure I am going to use is called a "bear put spread".
Persons: Nishant Pant Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: overbought
AdvertisementThe large-cap real estate sector benefits from Wall Street's massive investment in data centers, a necessary infrastructure component of the artificial intelligence buildout. AdvertisementIn Subramanian's view, part of the appeal of value sectors is the high dividends they offer. As the Fed's cutting cycle pulls down short-term yields, money market investors will search for new sources of income. She previously noted that dividend yields are especially alluring in real estate. Since 2008, real estate dividends has doubled the proportion of high-quality market cap.
Persons: they're, Subramanian, , Savita Subramanian, BofA's, BofA, Scott Chronert Organizations: Bank of America, Service, CNBC, Bloomberg Locations: China, Beijing
Until the government's measures pan out, investment strategists are recommending a handful of oversold stocks in China. U.S. hedge fund billionaire David Tepper said Thursday on CNBC's " Squawk Box " that he bought more Chinese stocks after the change in China policy. That hedge fund allocation rose to 7.3% on Tuesday, which saw the largest single day purchases by hedge funds since March 2021, Rubner said. Retail investors account for the majority of trading activity in mainland Chinese stocks, also known as A shares. Mainland Chinese stock exchanges are scheduled to close from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for a holiday, which this year commemorates the 75th anniversary of the People's Republic of China.
Persons: Wendy Liu, Rupal Agarwal, Bernstein, David Tepper, Donald Trump, Tepper, Pan Gongsheng, Xi Jinping, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Rubner, Goldman, China hasn't, Li Dongfang, Li, financials, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CSI, JPMorgan, Tal Education, Huawei, People's Bank of China, CNBC, HK Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, Tsingtao, U.S, Zhejiang, Asia, Hong Kong, Beijing, Mainland, People's Republic of China
Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 have broken out to new highs this month. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky asked this week, referring to the S & P 500. The S & P 500 had risen more than 5%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was higher by more than 1%. For the S & P 500, those levels represent declines of about 6% to 9%, as of Thursday's close. Initial Claims (09/28) 9:45 a.m. PMI Composite final (September) 9:45 a.m. S & P PMI Services SA final (September) 10 a.m.
Persons: Jonathan Krinsky, Dow, Adam Turnquist, LPL Financial's Turnquist, Jeff Hirsch, he's bullish, Hirsch wouldn't, Lamb Weston, Nonfarm Payrolls, , Nick Wells Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, CNBC, Nasdaq, LPL, Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed, PMI, Manufacturing, Nike, McCormick, ADP, PMI Services SA, Services PMI, Constellation Locations: Europe, U.S, Chicago
The move prompted Wall Street giants Barclays and Citi to adopt a more optimistic stance on global cyclical stocks. Barclays believes the Federal Reserve's actions are "clearly designed to pull out all the stops to achieve a soft landing" for the economy. Barclays strategists noted that "cyclicals typically rebounded steadily after the Fed started its rate cut cycle ... as long as it was not followed by a recession." Citi strategists share a similar outlook for European stocks. "The scale of the downgrades has become so extreme of late that we're now approaching a point where negative ERI may be a useful contrarian indicator," the Citi strategists said.
Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Beata Manthey, we're, Safran, Atlas, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Barclays, Citi, Fed, Siemens, BBVA, ING, Holcim, ASM Locations: United States
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEverybody on Wall Street loves to be a contrarian, says Jim Cramer on the past two trading days'Mad Money' host Jim Cramer looks at the day's market action and what lead the S&P 500 and Dow to a record close.
Persons: Jim Cramer Organizations: Dow
Biotechnology stocks offer an under-the-radar and unappreciated way to profit from the central bank's looming campaign to start cutting the cost of borrowing, according to Goldman Sachs. Investors may have already begun to anticipate the effect of lower rates on some biotech companies. IBB .SPX mountain 2024-06-30 The iShares Biotechnology ETF has risen more than twice as much as the S & P 500 this quarter. The iShares Biotech ETF is up 7.7% this quarter while the Nasdaq Biotech Index has advanced 7.4%, more than double the 3.2% gain in the S & P 500 since June 30. Year-to-date, Regeneron is up 30.6% and Vertex by 18.3%, both outperforming the 18.1% rise in the S & P 500.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, John Flood, Goldman, Flood, Regeneron Organizations: Biotechnology, Federal Reserve, Gilead Sciences, Nasdaq Biotechnology, IQVIA Holdings, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Amgen, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, iShares Biotech, Nasdaq Biotech Locations: Gilead
Read previewPeter Thiel, the right-wing tech billionaire who's known for his contrarian views, is making another unusual prediction: The 2024 election won't be close. But he also argued that the last two presidential elections may have been historical aberrations in terms of how close they were. You know, most presidential elections aren't," Theil said. He went on to claim that if the election is indeed close, Harris and Democrats will "cheat" via ballot harvesting and election rule changes. When pressed on how he would change US elections, Thiel said he'd prefer to see just one day of voting, "practically no" absentee ballots, and stronger voter ID laws.
Persons: , Peter Thiel, who's, Thiel, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, it's, Theil, — JD Vance, Blake Masters, Vance, that's, I've, Harris, he'd Organizations: Service, Business, Trump voters, Trump Locations: Ohio, Arizona
Opinion | Nate Silver on How Kamala Harris Changed the Odds
  + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Ezra Klein | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +81 min
You know, Hillary Clinton, who was, I think, kind of a terrible candidate, won the popular vote by two points. So I don’t think they gave her a very good hand to play. It doesn’t matter who you are, it matters that you’re right and you’re able to prove it or bet on it in some way. What wasn’t in the Harris model that should have been?” “Yeah, maybe you really can meme your way to victory. And there’s something in it that I don’t think she can explain how she does it, but it makes her a fascinating leader.
Persons: Nate Silver, , ESPN’s Nate Silver, Silver, He’s, “ Savage, ” “, he’s, Ezra, Harris, we’ve, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump’s, There’s, Hillary Clinton, she’s, She’s, Gavin Newsom, It’s, Biden, I’m, you’re, Joe Biden, Democratic Party Harris, Liz, , , Donald Trump, that’s, George W, Bush, Donald Trump wasn’t, it’s, Michael Jackson, Woody Allen, , Chick, don’t, George Floyd, ‘ COVID, COVID, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Michael Moritz, Elon, Mark Cuban, Thiel, Max Chafkin, Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Page, Sergey Brin, Marc Andreessen, Ted Cruz, Sam Bankman, Tom Brady, SBF, Carrick Flynn, Oregon’s, I’m Carrick Flynn, Tara MacAulay, vouched, Bill Clinton, Tyler Cowen, they’ve, Jane, JD Vance, Peter Thiel’s, Vance, Trump, Steve Bannon, Don Trump, Jr, Tucker Carlson, Tim Walz, Josh Shapiro, Tell, you’ve, Shapiro, Walz, I’ve, Iglesias, Obama, Susan Collins, Joe Manchin —, Jon Tester, ” “ Sherrod Brown, I’d, Dana White, Hulk Hogan, Joe Biden’s, — let’s, Mike Donilon, Kennedy, ” “ Tim Alberta, Georgia —, Brian Kemp, Blake Masters, Rick Scott, ” “ Trump, Doug Burgum, Black, didn’t, — Woodrow Wilson, Harry Truman, Michael Jordan, everyone’s, Nancy Pelosi’s, Nancy Pelosi, Joe ’, we’re, I’ll, John Coates, Richard Rhodes, Natasha Schüll, Natasha Organizations: Oracle, Trump, Democratic Party, Facebook, Twitter, The New York Times, ’ Harvard University, Democratic White House, Republican White House, Democratic, Silver, George, Vegas, Poker, extroversion, Elon, Sequoia Capital, McLaren, Paypal, Republican, New, PAC, Alameda, Las, Ohio Senate, underperform, White, UFC, RNC, Biden, Biden ., National Association of Black Journalists, Deutsche Bank, Manhattan Project, Design Locations: Nate, Russian, Russia, , Elon, Florida, predestiny, Bahamas, Sam, Africa, New York, Oregon, Las Vegas, Petersburg, United States, Ohio, Trump, Minnesota, ” “ Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Gaza, Chicago, Montana, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada , Arizona, Biden . Georgia, Carolina, Arizona, Ukraine, LA, It’s, Vegas
David A. GroganBerkshire Hathaway 's highly scrutinized cash pile could top $200 billion — more than the entire annual gross domestic product of Hungary — amid CEO Warren Buffett's rare sale of some of his favorite stocks. The Omaha-based conglomerate is likely to say its cash hoard topped the previous record of $189 billion, set in the first quarter, when it reports second-quarter earnings Saturday morning. The selling could have resumed in the second quarter as shares of the iPhone maker jumped 23% in the period. "It's just a question of how long they are going to sit on it," Andrew Kligerman, TD Cowen's Berkshire analyst, said in an interview, referring to Berkshire's enormous cash pile. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Berkshire Hathaway
Persons: Warren Buffett, David A, Grogan Berkshire Hathaway, Warren, Buffett, Bill Stone, Andrew Kligerman, I've, Berkshire Hathaway Organizations: Berkshire Hathaway, Apple, Bank of America, Oracle, Glenview Trust Company, America, Federal, Berkshire Locations: Omaha , Nebraska, Hungary, Omaha, Glenview, Berkshire, Charlotte
I want to embrace this turbulence and use options to create income and potentially get long the broader market at lower levels. Risk happens fast, and investors have recently been conditioned that markets only go up with the impressive rally grinding higher since last November in the S & P 500. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year The highly liquid ETF that tracks the S & P 500, the SPDR S & P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) , was up nearly 35% (mid-July) from last November. This move forced many bears on Wall Street to capitulate and many malleable analysts to quickly reconfigure their end of year S & P 500 targets substantially higher. The trade With the S & P now down 5% from mid-July recent highs, I look at this acute move lower as a buying opportunity.
Persons: Warren Buffett Organizations: Trust, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Finance, health care and other regulated industries should consider their specific needs and tailor their defenses with military-grade components, he added. The implementation of military-grade cybersecurity is not without challenges. In 2024, regulated industries have witnessed a significant increase in both the number and cost of data breaches. Frederic Rivain, chief technology officer of Dashlane, holds a contrarian view on the need for military-grade defenses. "Multifactor authentication is important, and you must have it, but you still need to have multiple layers," Two Bears said.
Persons: CrowdStrike, Javad Abed, Abed, shouldn't, Cole, Didi, National Intelligence Avril Haines, Gen, Gary Orenstein, Orenstein, doesn't, Frederic Rivain, Rivain Organizations: Johns Hopkins Carey Business School, Delta Air Lines, Finance, IBM, Ponemon Institute, Bears, Amazon, Data, Verizon, National Intelligence, Employees Locations: ThinkGard, U.S, China, America
Without Peter Thiel, Vance does not get anywhere near the US Senate. And in Silicon Valley, the conservative movement is much stronger, and more muscular than it was before. AdvertisementThere's this narrative, promoted by people like Thiel, that Silicon Valley is super-liberal. Because Silicon Valley has conservative roots in addition to roots in the counterculture. AdvertisementLike I said, the liberal nature of Silicon Valley has always been sort of overplayed.
Persons: , I'm, Donald Trump, Vance, Peter Thiel —, Max Chafkin, who's, Thiel, Peter Thiel's, Trump, JD Vance, Narya, It's, supercharge, Bill Pugliano, David Sacks, Peter Thiel, revel, that's, he's, Elon Musk, Marc Andreessen, They're, Elon Musk's, Apu Gomes, Steve Jobs, Ben Horowitz Organizations: Service, Republican, Trump, Business, Bloomberg Businessweek, Republican National Convention, YouTube, Ohio Senate, The, Thiel, Twitter Locations: Silicon Valley, Mithril, Narya, Ohio, West Coast, , America, Silicon, San Francisco
The stock market rally is likely to continue, says BofA technical analyst Stephen Suttmeier. Suttmeier highlighted four positive signals that suggest a healthy bull market in a note on Tuesday. AdvertisementAs the stock market hits a series of record highs in 2024, there are positive signals suggesting the rally can keep going. That money could serve as fuel for a continued stock market rally, especially if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, making the current 5% cash yield less attractive. AdvertisementThe financial conditions index last sparked a major negative divergence towards the end of 2021, when the S&P 500 was rising even as the financial conditions index was declining.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Organizations: Service, Bank of America, BAA, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Fed, Chicago Fed
Walter Shapiro, a canny, penetrating and often contrarian political columnist whose career included stints as a presidential speechwriter, stand-up comic, professor, author and, as a college student, congressional candidate, died on Sunday in Manhattan. The cause of his death, in a hospital, was an infection related to his recent treatment for cancer, his wife, the journalist and author Meryl Gordon, said. The next year, at 16, he took his first airplane flight to attend President John F. Kennedy’s funeral. He began his career in journalism at Congressional Quarterly and went on to write for Washington Monthly, The Washington Post, Newsweek, Time, USA Today, The New Republic and Esquire. He later wrote for Salon, Yahoo News, Politics Daily and Roll Call.
Persons: Walter Shapiro, Meryl Gordon, Theodore H ., John F Organizations: Congressional Quarterly, Washington Monthly, The Washington Post, Newsweek, Time, The New, Esquire, Salon, Yahoo, Politics Locations: Manhattan, Norwalk, Conn, USA
The past week's tumultuous stock market action harkened back to the dark days of 2000 as the dot-com bubble was bursting, according to economist and strategist David Rosenberg. With tech leaders sagging and investors heading for cover, the widely followed market bear sees similarities between two eras that showed overheated investor sentiment and an overvalued market. "The massive daily swings reflect a manic market becoming unglued," the head of Rosenberg Research wrote in his daily market note Friday. "The action is highly reminiscent of what happened in the immediate aftermath of the Nasdaq rolling off the bubble highs in March 2000." Alfred E. Neuman feeling when I look at the action in the equity market and the reasons for this relentless exuberance," Rosenberg said.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Alfred E, Neuman, Rosenberg, Russell Organizations: Rosenberg Research, Nasdaq, Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Dow Jones, American, of, Investors, Investors Intelligence
Sure enough, the S&P 500 rallied another 7.2%, ending 2023 up 24.2%. BMO Capital MarketsInvestors would love a similar outcome after a 14.5% first-half gain, which ranks in the 82nd percentile historically, according to BMO. History is on stocks' side in the second halfIn the last seven-and-a-half decades, the S&P 500 has risen 10% to 15% a dozen other times. Chances are, the relatively tame 5.5% slide the S&P 500 experienced in March and April won't be the biggest pullback of the year. Advertisement"Extended valuation remains a hot topic, but a closer inspection reveals that levels may not be as severe as are being advertised," Belski wrote.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Brian Belski, Belski, Stocks, Oppenheimer Organizations: Service, BMO Capital Markets, Business, BMO Capital, BMO, UBS, Markets, Tech, Trade Locations: The Montreal, New York, US
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