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Back in late September, I laid out a bearish thesis on Apple and the trade expired last Friday and resulted in a 100% gain. Apple (AAPL) continues to face significant headwinds, with disappointing iPhone 16 sales, growing competition in augmented reality, and underwhelming progress in artificial intelligence (AI). China's slowing economy has weighed heavily on Apple, exacerbating challenges in one of its largest markets. While Apple boasts industry-leading net margins of 24%, its expected EPS growth of 11.6% and revenue growth of 6.9% provide limited justification for this valuation premium. With iPhone sales growth faltering and the lack of a clear catalyst from AI or AR/VR initiatives, AAPL's premium valuation remains increasingly difficult to sustain.
Persons: AAPL Organizations: Apple, Apple Intelligence, Meta, Microsoft, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: OptionsPlay
"Investors should take advantage as munis are poised to deliver good performance into year-end and 2025, in our view," he added. Interest income from municipal bonds is free of federal income taxes. Further, if the investor resides in the same state that issues the bond, the interest income can be exempt from state taxes. Both of those tax cuts could reduce muni bond demand, Li said. As for any potential changes in the individual tax rate, UBS' Mukherjee doesn't necessarily see a big impact on demand.
Persons: Sudip Mukherjee, Mukherjee, Yingchen Li, Trump, Li, Donald Trump, Bank of America's Li, downgrades Organizations: Federal, UBS Global Wealth Management, Bank of America, muni, Republicans, Senate, Democrats, GOP, UBS, Investment, Bank of America's
As we approach the expiration of our Meta Platforms (META) trade from early October we have successfully captured 78% of the total maximum gain. On the fundamentals, META stands out as a leader in profitability and growth compared to its industry peers. And with analysts expecting EPS growth of 23% and revenue growth at 16%, META outpaces the industry averages by a significant margin. Additionally, META trades at 23x forward earnings, which is a 15% discount relative to its peers, presenting a substantial upside potential. The breakeven point is $571.77, meaning the trade remains profitable as long as Meta stays above this level.
Persons: AAPL Organizations: Apple, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: OptionsPlay
AdvertisementA key sticking point for the 73,479,065 Americans (and counting) who voted for President-elect Donald Trump was inflation. Inflationary promisesThe main Trump proposals viewed as inflationary are: sweeping tariffs on imports, mass deportation of immigrants, and lower taxes. Related storiesTypically, US companies simply pass the tariff costs to consumers via higher prices, and company executives are already signaling this to investors. Possible inflation falloutIf Trump delivers on all of these proposals, then a rebound in inflation is all but guaranteed, economists have said. AdvertisementIt's worth noting that the tariffs Trump enacted in his first term did not result in a significant inflation increase.
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, It's, Taylor Rogers —, Philip Daniele, Timothy Boyle, Wendy Edelberg, Nobel, Paul Krugman, Ned Davis, Veneta Dimitrova, Dimitrova Organizations: Trump, Service, White, Biden, Republican National, Center, Columbia, Washington Post, National Association of Homebuilders, Federal Reserve Locations: China,
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the morning trading on Nov. 7, 2024. Stock futures are near flat Sunday night as Wall Street looks to what's next after a post-election rally propelled the market to record highs. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 19 points, trading slightly above breakeven. S&P 500 futures were also little changed, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.2%. Last week's rally was considered broad, with both the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and small cap-focused Russell 2000 also advancing.
Persons: what's, Russell, Donald Trump, Jerome Powell, Katie Nixon Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Traders, Trust, Ticketmaster
Steel stocks would likely outperform under if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House, while clean energy providers might rally if Vice President Kamala Harris captures the presidency, according to JPMorgan. Clean Energy In the same 14-page report, JPMorgan shared the name of specific companies that are likely to benefit should either candidate prevail. Steel and aluminum Conversely, Peterson is bullish on steel and aluminum companies if former President Trump gets a second term. Shares of steel producer Nucor have tumbled nearly 18% in 2024 but could bounce back under a Trump victory, according to JPMorgan. Other potential winners under a Trump presidency include aluminum producer Kaiser Aluminum and rare-earth materials processor MP Materials , said JPMorgan.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, Bill Peterson, Peterson, EBITDA, William Grippin, Trump, Morgan Stanley, Carlos De, Martin Englert Organizations: White, JPMorgan, Trump, EV, Department of Energy's, Office, Democratic, UBS, DOE, Power, Energy, Republican, Steel, Nippon Steel, U.S . Steel, Seaport Research Partners, Aluminum Locations: Los Angeles, adj, 2H25, Charlotte, Cleveland
Despite the progress, Peloton is expecting to lose more members and sell fewer bikes and treadmills than Wall Street analysts had expected during its all-important holiday quarter. The company is expecting to have between 560,000 and 580,000 paid app subscribers by the end of its current quarter, compared with expectations of 608,200, according to StreetAccount. It's expecting adjusted EBITDA of between $20 million and $30 million during its current quarter, compared with StreetAccount EBITDA estimates of $13.9 million. For fiscal 2025, Peloton raised its full-year EBITDA guidance – a key metric that investors are watching to gauge the company's future value. It said it's now expecting to generate between $240 million and $290 million in adjusted EBITDA, compared with a previous range of $200 million and $250 million.
Persons: It's, Barry McCarthy, McCarthy, Peter Stern, it's Organizations: Sporting Goods, Wall Street, LSEG Locations: Daly City , California, North America
A delegate arrives at the King Abdulaziz Conference Centre in Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh to attend the Future Investment Initiative (FII) forum. The kingdom's $925 billion sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, saw its assets jump 29% to 2.87 trillion Saudi riyals ($765.2 billion) in 2023 — and local investment was a major driver. "Value meaning hiring, developing the asset management ecosystem, creating new products, bringing in talent, and investing in Saudi capital markets also. Oil prices and the Saudi economy appear to so far have stayed largely unscathed, dropping 4% early Monday after Israel's weekend strike on Iran. A key reason for that may be the rapprochement deal the kingdom signed with Iran, brokered by China, in March 2023.watch now
Persons: Nureldine, it's, Omar Yacoub, Yacoub, Fadi Arbid, Brent, Arbid, Yemen's, Israel Organizations: King Abdulaziz Conference Centre, Future Investment Initiative, Afp, Getty, Investment Initiative, CNBC, U.S, ABS Global, Public Investment Fund, Saudi, Saudi Arabia's, Amwal Capital Partners, OPEC, Eastern, Ritz, Carlton, Israel Locations: Saudi Arabia's, Riyadh, Saudi, Saudi Arabia, , Dubai, Carlton Riyadh, Gaza, Israel, Lebanon, Iran, Tel Aviv, China
Tesla (TSLA) surged more than 20% post earnings as CEO Elon Musk delivered an encouraging forecast and revealed surging sales in his electric vehicle company. This short-covering created a significant increase in volatility making option premiums increase lock-in-step. Volatility is a known characteristic for Tesla as the stock has a beta of 2.29, more than double that of the S & P 500. And Tesla earnings have historically created volatility in the stock. DISCLOSURES: (Long Tesla, sold this put spread, also short TSLA o-t-m calls and put options.)
Persons: Tesla, Elon Musk, Kilburg, YTD Musk Organizations: Shareholders, EV, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: TSLA, Tesla
The movement in the patience-to-impatience investor pendulum for Elon Musk (and Tesla) has fully swung to impatience. I believe this initial negative reaction (down nearly 10%) is presenting a discount in Tesla (TSLA) shares and I want to use options to create short-term income while I wait for a short-term bounce. Tesla plans to introduce full self-driving (FSD) capabilities in California and Texas as early as Q1 2025, pending regulatory approvals. The trade Tesla is a stock that has become more intensely emotional as Musk is in the news daily. I want to capture the emotion in today's tape by utilizing a Risk Reversal options strategy which takes the premium I am collecting from the put option I am selling to finance and buy the call option.
Persons: Tesla's, Elon Musk, Tesla Organizations: Optimus, The, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: California, Texas
Valued at $4 billion in 2021, Cerebras is reportedly seeking to roughly double that in its IPO. The customer, G42, is backed by Microsoft , and it's entirely responsible for the $1.43 billion purchase commitment. G42 can pick up $500 million more in Cerebras shares if it commits to spend $5 billion on the company's computing clusters. The major Wall Street banks, for their part, are finding other ways to play in the burgeoning AI infrastructure market. Fitch, who said he sold out of his Nvidia stock years ago, told CNBC that the benefits outweigh the risks.
Persons: Andrew Feldman, Ramsey Cardy, Cerebras, , David Golden, it's, prepayment, CFIUS, Mike Gallagher, Gina Raimondo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, Young, There's, Peter Thiel, Eva Marie Uzcategui, there's, Thiel, Jim Fitch, Fitch, Feldman Organizations: Cerebras Systems, Nvidia, Revolution Ventures, JPMorgan Chase, Microsoft, AstraZeneca, GlaxoSmithKline, Mayo Clinic, Treasury, Foreign Investment, Reuters, Chinese Communist Party, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Barclays, BDO, KPMG, Deloitte, Ernst, Riverstone Networks, CoreWeave, Clarium Capital Management LLC, Bloomberg, Getty, Mizuho Securities, Venture, CNBC, Devices Locations: Toronto, U.S, Sunnyvale , California, Abu Dhabi, China, Miami , Florida, Los Angeles, Florida
With a surprisingly strong labor market, consumer spending has remained resilient and e-commerce stocks like Shopify (SHOP) present attractive opportunities. This price action indicates strength and suggests that the stock has found a strong base from which it can continue higher. With the stock now trading above its breakout level and positive momentum continuing to build, the chart supports further upside. The trade: To express a bullish outlook on Shopify, I'm suggesting selling the Nov 22, $82/74 Put Vertical @ $3.10 Credit. This structure entails: Selling the Nov 22 $82 Put @ $5.85 Buying the Nov 22 $74 Put @ $2.75 View this link in OptionsPlay with updated pricing.
Persons: Shopify, Shopify's Organizations: Forward, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
New York CNN —The cost of a Mega Millions ticket is more than doubling, but the multi-state lottery game is promising that the bigger price comes with better odds. It’s the second time the price of a ticket has increased in Mega Millions’ 22-year history: In 2017, the price jumped from $1 to $2 — the same cost of a Powerball ticket. That’s also when Mega Millions adopted its current format of choosing six total numbers from two different pools – and when all the numbers match, including the gold Mega Ball, the player wins the jackpot. Mega Millions said that the increased ticket price will cause larger-starting jackpots, as well as faster-growing jackpots. Mega Millions is available to play in 45 states plus Washington, DC, and the US Virgin Islands.
Persons: It’s, That’s, , Joshua Johnston Organizations: New, New York CNN, Mega, Mega Millions Consortium, Virgin Islands Locations: New York, Florida, Washington, Virgin
“Joker: Folie à Deux,” a genre-bending sequel to the billion-dollar comic book smash, hit a sour note at the box office even as it opened to No. That’s a problem because the R-rated sequel carries a substantial $200 million price tag (the first film was produced for a trim $65 million). So, “Folie à Deux” needs to generate at least $450 million to break even, according to sources familiar with the film’s financials. Muted buzz for “Folie à Deux” began at Venice Film Festival, where “Joker” took home the fest’s top prize in 2019. Joaquin Phoenix and Lady Gaga attend the Los Angeles premiere of "Joker: Folie a Deux" on Sept. 30.
Persons: , , Jeff Bock, Warners, tentpole, haven’t, Joker ”, Joaquin Phoenix, Lady Gaga, Matt Winkelmeyer, WireImage Todd Phillips, Arthur Fleck, Harleen “ Lee ” Quinzel, Gaga, Martin Scorsese, ” “ Todd Phillips, Bock, Lionsgate’s, Jacob Tremblay, Julian, Bryce Gheisar, Sony’s, Pharrell Williams Organizations: Warner Bros, Phoenix, Bron Creative, Warners, Venice Film, Los Angeles, Lionsgate, DreamWorks Locations: Danish
Goldman lowers recession odds to just 15%
  + stars: | 2024-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The bank's economists over the weekend lowered their recession probability to just 15%, which chief economist Jan Hatzius classified as the "unconditional long-term average." September's smashing nonfarm payrolls surge of 254,000 and a downward move in the unemployment rate served as a catalyst for the firm to nearly abandon the chance of a contraction. Prior to the report, traders had been betting that the Fed might repeat its 50 basis point — half percentage point — interest rate cut from September before the end of the year. But expectations have swung now, and Goldman concurs with market pricing that the "next few meetings" will see 25 basis point moves. That's about 1.5 percentage points lower than the current level and 2 full percentage points below the pre-September cut.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman, Lisa Shallett, Morgan Stanley, Shallett Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
The strategic focus Meta has placed on monetizing these AI tools across its platforms — including Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp — gives it a unique competitive advantage. This commitment to revenue generation from AI sets it apart from other firms still exploring AI potential without clear paths to monetization. If we review the chart for Meta, it has shown strong performance, recently breaking above a key resistance level at $545. Meanwhile, the company boasts robust growth projections with an expected future EPS growth of 22% (industry average of 16%) and a revenue growth rate of 15% (industry average of 11%). With these growth and profitability metrics, Meta appears undervalued, offering a compelling risk/reward profile for long-term investors looking to benefit from its AI-driven revenue potential.
Persons: WhatsApp, Meta Organizations: Facebook, Meta, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
As a new month looms, Wall Street expects its favorite stocks to outperform — no matter what October might bring. Against this backdrop, CNBC Pro screened for Wall Street's favorite names that analysts believe could rally from here. Read's $150 price target is way above the consensus $137, and about 43% higher than where ConocoPhillips closed Friday. Analysts are also bullish on fellow energy producer Diamondback Energy , with the stock's upside to average price target coming in at 30%. Other stocks on Wall Street's list of favorites include casino operator MGM Resorts International and biotechnology firm Biogen .
Persons: Janney Montgomery, Dan Wantrobski, Wall, Goldman Sachs, Toshiya Hari, Wells, Roger Read, Read's, Piper Sandler, Mark Lear Organizations: Federal Reserve, November's U.S, CNBC Pro, Semiconductor, Micron Technology, Micron, Wall Street, ConocoPhillips, Diamondback Energy, Diamondback, Endeavor, MGM Resorts International Locations: November's, Friday's, Wells Fargo, Houston, Midland, 3Q24
The Treasury market, though, hasn’t been paying attention. Officials penciled in another 50 basis points in reductions by the end of the year and another 100 by the end of 2025. That sentiment is evident in the “breakeven” inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. Taken together, the various dynamics in the Treasury market are making it a difficult time for investors.
Persons: hasn’t, , Jonathan Duensing, — haven’t, , Robert Tipp, We’re, Jerome, Powell, ” Duensing, Tom Garretson, “ They’d, There’s Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation, RBC Wealth Management
The Treasury market, though, hasn't been paying attention. Watching the curveThe difference between the 10- and 2-year notes has widened significantly, increasing by about 12 basis points since the Fed meeting. That sentiment is evident in the "breakeven" inflation rate, or the difference between standard Treasury and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities yields. The 5-year breakeven rate, for instance, has risen 8 basis points since the Fed meeting and is up 20 basis points since Sept. 11. watch nowFed officials aim for a 2% inflation rate, and none of the principal gauges are there yet.
Persons: Anna Moneymaker, hasn't, Jonathan Duensing, — haven't, Robert Tipp Organizations: Federal Reserve, Getty, Treasury, Amundi, Fed, CME, Treasury Inflation Locations: Washington , DC
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. According to a simulated model that factors in things like changes in health, nursing home costs, and demographics, about 45% of Americans who leave the workforce at 65 are likely to run out of money during retirement. When you have more leisure time on your hands, more money goes toward entertainment and travel, especially in the first few years of retirement. The outcome is a higher withdrawal rate, which can push you into a higher tax bracket, he noted. "People don't take into account how expensive things get over time, not realizing that they can live another 40 years in retirement.
Persons: , Spencer Look, they're, JoePat Roop, Roop, Bob, would've, it'll, Gil Baumgarten, Baumgarten, it's Organizations: Service, Morningstar's Center for Retirement, Business, Belmont Capital Advisors, IRA, IRS, Wealth Management Locations: breakeven
Apple Inc. (AAPL) is facing headwinds despite the launch of the new iPhone 16, which offered only incremental improvements over the prior generation. Investors eagerly awaited the company's Apple Intelligence software update, but its absence as a significant growth driver is tempering investor enthusiasm. To capitalize on the potential downside, I suggest selling the Nov 15 $230/$245 Call Vertical. This entails: Sell the Nov 15, 2024 $230 Calls @ $7.73 Buy the Nov 15, 2024 $245 Calls @ $2.41 View this trade in OptionsPlay for updated pricing. This trade provides a high probability of profit trade for investors who believe AAPL will remain range-bound or face further downside, particularly given the slowing growth.
Persons: AAPL's, AAPL Organizations: Apple Inc, Apple Intelligence, Apple, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: OptionsPlay
But Moscow doesn't appear ready to acknowledge that it's not in a financial position to cut Europe off from its natural gas exports completely. Russia's oil and gas revenues hit 8.82 trillion rubles, or $94.6 billion, in 2023. That's 24% lower than the 11.6 trillion rubles it recorded in 2022, when revenues jumped due to oil price volatility. In 2021, Russia's oil and gas sales revenue stood at 9 trillion rubles. To be sure, other geopolitical factors could also be playing into Russia's decision to keep natural gas exports moving into Europe.
Persons: , it's, Sergey Lavrov, Lavrov, It's, There's, Naftogaz Organizations: Service, Sky News Arabia, Russian, Business, West, P, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, Bloomberg Locations: Moscow, Russia, Europe, United States, Ukraine, Nord, Ukraine's
How to play the Fed decision using options on gold
  + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Tony Zhang | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Gold is trading at all-time highs due to a combination of inflation concerns, geopolitical risks, and expectations around monetary policy. Historically, gold tends to benefit from dovish monetary policies, especially when they signal prolonged low interest rates, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Gold has maintained its bullish momentum, trading near $2,600, and appears to be breaking into new all-time highs. Looking at the chart, gold has consistently made higher highs and higher lows, a sign of strong upward momentum. The trade To express a bullish to neutral view on gold going into the Fed announcement, consider selling a SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Nov 1 $237.5/232.5 Put Vertical @ $2.02 Credit.
Persons: GLD Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: Central
As global growth continues to slow, investors should get overweight on defensive names, according to UBS. August marked yet another month of declining global growth, as the Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reported 49.5 for the month , down from 49.7 in July, according to S & P Global Market Intelligence. Wall Street has taken a bullish stance, as 12 of the 18 analysts covering the stock have issued strong buy or buy ratings, according to LSEG. Constellation Energy has also been on a monster run this year, with shares surging 70%. About 82% of the analysts covering the stock rate it a buy or strong buy, according to LSEG.
Persons: Dow Jones, Eli Lilly, it's Organizations: UBS, Global Manufacturing, P Global Market Intelligence, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Constellation Energy, Constellation Locations: Ireland
Here are Friday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Raymond James initiates Arm as outperform Raymond James said the semis company is well positioned for AI. Citi downgrades Capri Holdings to neutral from buy Citi said the risk/reward is more balanced for the owner of brands like Michael Kors. UBS reiterates Oracle as buy UBS raised its price target on the stock to $200 per share from $175. The feedback on Oracle's top-line growth was overall positive..." UBS reiterates PNC as buy UBS said the bank is a high conviction idea. " Citi resumes Eli Lilly as buy Citi resumed coverage of the stock and says it's well positioned.
Persons: Raymond James, Jefferies, SLG, CFRA, it's, datopotamab, Michael Kors, haven't, Morgan Stanley, EQT, Citi, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Tesla, BEV, Wells Organizations: Arm Holdings, ARM, Citi, Green, Kroger, Macquarie, Rio Tinto, Deutsche Bank, AstraZeneca, Deutsche, Capri Holdings, Barclays, Garmin, GM, BMO, GE, UBS, Oracle, Oracle's, PNC, JPMorgan, Netflix, JPMorgan downgrades Moderna, Nvidia, NVIDIA Locations: GenAI, New York, Rio, RIO, Las Vegas
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