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Einhorn said he's not bearish, but there will likely be better entry points into the market. Add David Einhorn to the list of top Wall Streeters pointing out how expensive the stock market is. Advertisement"This is a really, really, really pricey environment, but it doesn't necessarily make me bearish. Einhorn called this "the most expensive market of all time, as far as I can see, at least since I've been managing." AdvertisementBank of AmericaEinhorn is one of many to highlight stock valuations as a factor likely to impact forward returns.
Persons: David Einhorn, Einhorn, he's, CNH Industrials, it's, I've, Bank of America Einhorn, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Rob Arnott, Nelson Peltz, CNH, that's, That's Organizations: Alpha, Delivering Alpha, Capital, Bank of America, Research, Trian Partners, AG
On Wednesday morning, the media giant confirmed that it is spinning off most of its cable channels, including MSNBC and CNBC, into a separate publicly traded company. The new company doesn’t have a formal name yet — Comcast is simplycalling it “SpinCo” — a suitable label since employees’ heads are spinning with questions. Discovery, spin off their cable channels too? How might the cable bundle business model be impacted? “This is a very clear, direct statement by Comcast” that “they are exiting the cable network business,” Greenfield said.
Persons: Mike Cavanagh, NBCUniversal, Tom Rogers, Rogers, “ it’s, , ” Rogers, Rich Greenfield, ” Greenfield, ’ It’s, Mark Lazarus, Lazarus, , Joe Kernen, Greenfield’s, Greenfield, Matt Stoller, Hugh Johnston, “ SpinCo Organizations: New, New York CNN, Comcast, MSNBC, CNBC, Walt Disney Company, Warner Bros, NBC Cable, Lightshed Partners, Paramount, USA Network, SYFY, Golf, Rotten, NBC, American Economic Liberties, Disney, ” Fox Corp Locations: New York
Jim Cramer said Wednesday he's feeling even better about Apple after a new piece of Wall Street research. "This piece makes me feel more confident [about Apple]," Jim said Wednesday. "They are transitioning in a very deft way from making China by far their biggest market to India," Jim said. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. An Apple logo is displayed on a smartphone with stock market values in the background.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Bernstein, Toni Sacconaghi, , Jim, Donald Trump's, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Apple, JPMorgan, Apple's, F1Q25, UBS, Apple Intelligence, CNBC, Getty Locations: China, India, Philippines, Indonesia
Back in late September, I laid out a bearish thesis on Apple and the trade expired last Friday and resulted in a 100% gain. Apple (AAPL) continues to face significant headwinds, with disappointing iPhone 16 sales, growing competition in augmented reality, and underwhelming progress in artificial intelligence (AI). China's slowing economy has weighed heavily on Apple, exacerbating challenges in one of its largest markets. While Apple boasts industry-leading net margins of 24%, its expected EPS growth of 11.6% and revenue growth of 6.9% provide limited justification for this valuation premium. With iPhone sales growth faltering and the lack of a clear catalyst from AI or AR/VR initiatives, AAPL's premium valuation remains increasingly difficult to sustain.
Persons: AAPL Organizations: Apple, Apple Intelligence, Meta, Microsoft, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: OptionsPlay
Tech: We're in the middle of a white-collar recession, and tech workers are shouldering much of it . We're in the middle of a white-collar recession, and tech workers . AdvertisementElon Musk's government efficiency commission has been tasked with cutting government spending, raising questions about the future of millions of jobs. Tech jobs are mired in a recession. White collar hiring is in a huge slump, and tech workers are some of the hardest hit .
Persons: Trump hasn't, Tesla, Chelsea Jia Feng, Madison Hoff, Vivek Ramaswamy, Musk, Alice Tecotzky, John L, Dorman, Allison Robbert, Scott Bessent, Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick, Marc Rowan, Kevin Warsh, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Natalie Ammari, Uber, Verily, , Rebecca Zisser, Elon Musk, Bluesky —, Jake Paul's, Netflix's Jake Paul, Mike Tyson, wasn't, Donald Trump's, Satya Nadella, Dan DeFrancesco, Grace Lett, Ella Hopkins, Hallam Bullock, Amanda Yen, Milan Sehmbi Organizations: Business, Google, Trump, Tech, Getty, Elon, Department of Education, Veterans Affairs, Department of Government, Social Security, Medicare, Twitter, Getty Government, Allison, Treasury, BCA Research, Goldman, BI, LinkedIn, Microsoft, China Economic, Security, Walmart Locations: Washington , DC, China, Brazilian, New York, Chicago, London
Strategist Michael Wilson sees the S & P 500 reaching 6,500 in 2025. The sector is already up 6.8% since the Nov. 5 election, outperforming the other 10 S & P 500 sectors. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield is up more than 80 basis points (0.8 percentage point) since the Fed began cutting rates. While Wilson's base case sees the S & P 500 rising to 6,500, his most optmistic bullish scenario takes the benchmark all the way to 7,400 — 26% above Friday's close. However, his initial 2024 S & P 500 target proved too conservative at 4,500.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Wilson, Donald Trump, Baird Organizations: Fed Locations: Washington, Friday's
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: LRCX, Katie Stockton Organizations: Nvidia, ASML Holdings, Lam Research, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: U.S
"We estimate net margins will expand by 78 bp to 12.3% in 2025 followed by a further 35 bp increase to 12.6% in 2026." Heading into this year the Goldman team was too bearish. When it originally set its 2024 forecast last November it called for the index to climb just 5% to 4,700. States the report: "Our economists assume the Trump administration will impose targeted tariffs on imported automobiles and select imports from China. "High multiples are weak signals for near-term returns, but typically increase the magnitude of market drawdown during a negative shock," states the report.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman, Donald Trump, Trump, Martin Marietta, Stocks Organizations: CNBC Pro, Goldman, Microsoft, Tesla, Electronic Arts, Martin Marietta Materials, Waste Management, Fiverr International, Apple, Adobe, Mastercard, Uber Locations: China
Stocks still have significant gains in front of them heading into 2025, at least according to BMO Capital Markets. Although bull markets over the past 50 years have averaged about six years in length, the current bull market is just starting its third year but, unfortunately, the third year of past bull markets have been the weakest of the bunch, he cautioned. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 is little changed on Monday, but has gained about 23% in 2024. Heading into 2024, the S & P 500 had advanced more than 24% in 2023. The latter envisions the S & P 500 ending 2025 at 5,500, or about a 6% decline from the index's current price, mostly as a result of inflation picking up steam.
Persons: Stocks, Brian Belski, Belski, Belksi Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, BMO, Federal Reserve, & $ Locations: Canadian
AdvertisementInflation's downtrend may not be as straightforward as some investors think, according to Charles Schwab. Immigration reform could mean higher labor costs," the note added. Labor costs risingLabor costs have accelerated in recent months, with unit labor costs among all workers in the business sector rising to 3.4% year-over-year in the third quarter, according to Federal Reserve data. Markets are beginning to dial back expectations for further rate cuts in response to inflation concerns," Schwab strategists said. Charles Schwab, Citi Economic Surprise Index"Stronger growth suggests that the Fed may not lower short-term rates as much as anticipated just a few months ago.
Persons: Charles Schwab, Donald Trump, Trump, Schwab, It's Organizations: Trump, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Federal Reserve, Unit, Bloomberg, Treasury, Business, Citi
He said comparisons to the dot-com peak in 2000 are fair. Advertisement"This looks and feels like the year 2000 to me," Arnott told Business Insider on November 11. But Arnott believes AI optimism, which has driven the lion's share of the rally, is already fully priced in. At 37 times earnings, just below the late-2021 peak of 38, before the market fell by 25%, and the 2000 peak of 43, right in front of a 50% loss. "This is a really, really, really pricey environment, but it doesn't necessarily make me bearish.
Persons: Rob Arnott, he's, Arnott, , Donald Trump, Trump, disruptors, There's, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, David Einhorn, Einhorn Organizations: Nvidia, Intel, Chief US, Business, Goldman Sachs Bank of America's Global, Equity, Bank of America, CNBC's, Alpha Locations: irrelevance
President-elect Donald Trump selected Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Health and Human Services Department, the United States' top health agency. This cabinet appointment has created jitters among various healthcare stocks. I want to find a way to hedge my healthcare exposure and also capitalize on further potential downside in the lagging healthcare sector by using options in Health Care Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLV) . The trade I want to buy a put spread to express my short-term bearish view on healthcare. BEFORE MAKING ANY FINANCIAL DECISIONS, YOU SHOULD STRONGLY CONSIDER SEEKING ADVICE FROM YOUR OWN FINANCIAL OR INVESTMENT ADVISOR.
Persons: Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, SPDR, Eli Lily, UnitedHealthcare, Johnson Organizations: Health, Human Services Department, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: United States, crosshairs
Elvis Barukcic | Afp | Getty ImagesSpain's Deoleo, the world's largest olive oil producer, says one of the most challenging moments in the industry's history appears to be drawing to a close, with "liquid gold" prices expected to nearly halve from an all-time high over the coming months. Extra virgin olive oil prices in Spain's Andalusia stood at 6 euros ($6.33) per kilogram as of Nov. 6, according to Expana, an agricultural and food-focused market intelligence firm. Spain accounts for more than 40% of the world's olive oil production, making it a global reference for prices. A person holds a bottle of olive oil on June 21, 2024, in Barcelona, Catalonia, Spain. Deoleo said olive oil prices should fall to around 5 euros per liter, a steep drop from highs of 9 to 10 euros, which had become the norm in Spanish supermarkets this year.
Persons: Elvis Barukcic, Miguel Ángel Guzmán, Guzmán, Carbonell, Deoleo, Kyle Holland, Expana's Holland Organizations: Afp, Getty, CNBC, Europa Press, Anadolu Locations: Bosnian, Herzegovinian, Ljubuski, Capljina, Europe, Spain, Greece, Tunisia, Spain's Andalusia, Barcelona, Catalonia, Turkey, Menemen Plain, Izmir, Turkiye
The "Big Short" investor raised his stakes in Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com but also hedged the wagers. Burry didn't add any new names to his stock portfolio but exited a couple in the period. AdvertisementMichael Burry doubled down on three of China's biggest technology companies last quarter, boosting his stakes while carefully hedging his bets. The investor of "The Big Short" fame bolstered his Alibaba position by 29% to 200,000 shares worth around $21 million at the end of September, a quarterly portfolio filing revealed on Thursday. The Scion Asset Management boss doubled his JD.com stake to 500,000 shares worth $20 million at quarter end, and purchased put options on the same number of shares.
Persons: Michael Burry, , bearish, Trump, aren't, He's, Burry Organizations: Baidu, Service, Scion Asset Management, Molina Healthcare, Shift4, Hudson Pacific Properties, American Coastal Insurance, GameStop, Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia Locations: Alibaba, BioAlta, TheRealReal
The U.S. dollar could soon see a sharp reversal from its postelection gains, according to Fundstrat. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency's performance against six rival currencies, including the euro and the yen, is up more than 3% since President-elect Donald Trump secured a second term. That move comes as investors assess the potential macroeconomic policies likely coming in a second Trump administration, particularly on tariffs and trade. .DXY YTD mountain Dollar index in 2024 But Mark Newton, technical strategist at Fundstrat, thinks the greenback "stalls out and reverses in the weeks ahead." Bearish seasonal trends: the dollar has "historically reversed sharp rallies into November, and December stands out as the most bearish month of the year" for the dollar index, the strategist said.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Mark Newton, Newton, Piper Sandler, Campbell Organizations: U.S, Trump Locations: China
"We have increased our bets on inflation," he told CNBC's Leslie Picker at CNBC's Delivering Alpha investor summit on Wednesday. "We will have another inflection up in inflation," he said. "The policy mix being proposed is inflationary and we will see more of that over the next few years." The latest CPI data released Wednesday showed inflation in line with market expectations, at 2.6%. There is an argument for tolerating it and trying to run the economy as hot as possible.
Persons: David Einhorn, Donald Trump's, CNBC's Leslie Picker, Einhorn, bearish, Nelson Peltz, Trump, Harris, You've, you've, Anne Walsh Organizations: Greenlight, Alpha, Trump, Maytag, Trian, Guggenheim Partners Investment Management Locations: U.S
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is particularly interesting for swing traders, as it tends to trade within predictable ranges over extended periods. Given that IWM is trading at the top of the new trading range, I'm considering a bearish trade on IWM. With $242 as the upper bound of the range, I'll sell a $245 call option, just above the current resistance level. The trade As mentioned earlier, the trade structure I am using here is called a "bear call spread," also known as a "call credit spread". To construct my trade, I need to sell a $245 call option and buy a $250 call option as a single unit.
Persons: Russell, IWM, Nishant Pant Organizations: Trump, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
While oil stocks tend to follow the direction of crude prices, the energy sector has gained 3.6% since election day, slightly outpacing the S & P 500. Conflicting signals The crude futures market and the oil and gas stocks appear to be taking different messages from Trump's victory. Since the election, natural gas stocks have been big winners on the prospect of more pipeline permitting. The oilfield services companies are also major beneficiaries under a Trump administration, West said. Oil surplus headwind More ominously, an oil and gas production boom under Trump would lower crude oil prices and likely act as a headwind for the industry.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Brent, Andrew Dittmar, Trump, Dittmar, Biden, James West, EQT, Kinder Morgan, West, Baker Hughes, Halliburton, Lee Zeldin, Zeldin, Russia —, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Roger Read, Darren Woods, I'm, Woods, CNBC's Organizations: West Texas Intermediate, Enverus Energy Intelligence, Republican, White, American Petroleum Institute, Oil, Gas, ETF, Interior Department . Offshore drillers, Noble Corporation, Evercore ISI, Pipeline, Williams Companies, Cheniere Energy, Industries, Trump, SLB, New, New York GOP, Environmental Protection Agency, Fox News, Biden, EPA, " Companies, Investors, Department of Energy, CNBC, Exxon Mobil, Exxon, Chevron, White House, Capitol, ISI Locations: China, Gulf of Mexico, Tidewater, Transocean, Gulf, Trump, New York, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Wells Fargo
Such a scenario would entail higher inflation, higher rates, and falling stock prices, Roubini predicted. "That's going to crowd economic growth, and bond yields above 5% would imply a correction of stock prices and negative impacts on the economy." AdvertisementOther experts have warned some of Trump's policies could lead to higher inflation and interest rates, with his tariff plan attracting significant criticism from economists. Some of Trump's policies — like his plans to loosen regulation — could prop up business activity and fuel growth, Roubini noted. "I think markets are still in a wait-and-see to figure out whether the policies are going to be hurting the economy," Roubini said.
Persons: Nouriel Roubini, Roubini, , Donald Trump's, Doom, prognostications, Trump, Trump's, Taylor Rogers, hin, Stocks Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, stoke, Republican National Committee, Trump, Fed, Bank of America, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: China
Hedge fund investor David Einhorn's cautious stance all year made his performance suffer as he navigated what he believes is the priciest stock market of his career at Greenlight Capital. Einhorn's hedge fund returned just 9% in 2024 through the end of the third quarter, net of fees and expenses. The high-profile investor said he's neither calling the market a bubble nor being outright bearish, but sky-high prices caused him to be conservatively positioned. It is, by many measures, the most expensive stock market that we have seen since the founding of Greenlight," Einhorn said in the latest investor letter last month. Investors will be interested to hear if he's still finding any values.
Persons: David Einhorn's, he's, Einhorn, Greenlight, Einhorn postelection, Viatris Organizations: Greenlight, Alpha, Trump Locations: Einhorn's, Greenlight, New York City
Shares of Tesla are set to soar under a second Trump presidency, according to widely followed analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush. Ives reiterated his outperform rating and hiked his 12-month price target for the electric vehicle manufacturer to $400 from $300. A Trump win will further clear the federal regulatory spiderweb that Tesla has encountered over the past few years. A Trump win also means a more bearish outlook for the overall electric vehicle industry, since it is more likely that rebates and tax incentives will be pulled. TSLA YTD mountain TSLA YTD chart
Persons: Dan Ives, Ives, Donald Trump's, Elon Musk, Tesla, Trump, Musk Organizations: Tesla, Trump, Trump White House, EV Locations: Wedbush, China
Recession risk has jumped to 75% due to the potential for a trade ware under Trump, BCA Research said. Trump's proposed tariffs could lower household income and depress corporate investments. In a Friday note, Berezin increased the probability of an economic recession to 75% from 65%, citing the risk of a new trade war under Trump. On the campaign trail, Trump proposed implementing universal tariffs of 10%-20% on goods imported into the country and a 60% tariff on goods from China. Berezin cited a study from the Budget Lab at Yale that estimates Trump's proposed tariffs could reduce real disposable income for the median US household by $1,900-$7,600.
Persons: Trump's, , Peter Berezin, Donald Trump's, Berezin, Trump Organizations: Trump, BCA Research, Service, Yale Locations: China
U.S. government bond yields have surged too, puzzling many market participants. I am going to stick with the contrarian view and bet on rates continuing to move higher. I'll express that through a bearish bet on the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) which tracks bond prices. Various inputs have driven yields higher, creating the opposite outcome for the Fed as they continue to try to land the proverbial plane. Jeffrey Gundlach stated (post Fed meeting) that interest rates could shoot even higher if Republicans end up controlling the House too.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jeffrey Gundlach, Jerome Powell, TLT Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury Bond ETF, Fed, Treasury, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
The year-end stock rally has begun, Goldman Sachs says
  + stars: | 2024-11-07 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Wednesday's massive rally may be just the start of a huge year-end rally. Goldman Sachs tactical specialist Scott Rubner thinks those gains won't stop anytime soon. "The year-end rally starts today and may be higher than investors were expecting," he said Wednesday. Goldman data shows buybacks are already up 15% in 2024 from the last year, at more than $1.05 trillion. "We know we are fighting the tape here, but believe it makes sense to sell the stock."
Persons: Donald Trump's, Kamala Harris, ChatGPT, Goldman Sachs, Scott Rubner, Rubner, Goldman, Baird Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Goldman, JPMorgan Chase
In September, Truth Social had 698,000 monthly active users in the United States, compared with 70.4 million for X, according to Similarweb, a data tracking site. Some shareholders — many of them individual investors and supporters of Mr. Trump — took to a Truth Social message board on Wednesday to blast Wall Street traders, accusing it of conspiring to keep a lid on the stock price. Before the trading day began, it appeared Trump Media shares were poised to rocket higher. The stock was the most heavily traded in the hours before the official market open and rose as much as 30 percent in early trading. Swings in Trump Media’s price set off brief trading halts by stock exchanges on Wednesday morning, as they have on other occasions.
Persons: Elon Musk, Trump’s, Trump — Organizations: Social, Mr, Trump, Trump Media Locations: United States
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