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☆ China had almost 2 million excess deaths after the end of ‘zero-Covid,’ U.S. study finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-26 | by ( Jennifer Jett | Cheng Cheng | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

There were almost 2 million excess deaths in the two months after China lifted its "zero-Covid" restrictions, a U.S. study found, contradicting official figures from Beijing that have been criticized as too low. Researchers estimate there were 1.87 million excess deaths from all causes among people 30 years and older from December 2022 to January, according to the study from the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle published Thursday. "Our study of excess deaths related to the lifting of the zero-Covid policy in China sets an empirically derived benchmark estimate," the researchers wrote. The way the study estimates data is not "scientifically rigorous," but it is nonetheless an "objective" and "beneficial" attempt, Jin added. Jin said the actual data could be a few percentage points lower or higher than the study estimates.

Persons: Fred, Jan, Zhanwei Du, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Jin Dong, Jin Organizations: Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, University of Hong, University of Texas, Baidu Locations: China, U.S, Beijing, Seattle, Tibet, University of Hong Kong, Austin

China’s official count 0 2.5 million 83,150 deaths Model based on Shanghai outbreak 1.6 million deaths LOW ESTIMATE HIGH ESTIMATE Estimate using travel patterns 970,000 deaths Estimate using recent testing data 1.5 million deaths Estimate based on U.S. death rates 1.1 million deaths China’s official count 0 2.5 million 83,150 deaths Model based on Shanghai outbreak 1.6 million deaths LOW EST. But China’s official Covid death toll for the entire pandemic remains strikingly low: 83,150 people as of Feb. 9. Four separate academic teams have converged on broadly similar estimates: China’s Covid wave may have killed between a million and 1.5 million people. Why official data underrepresents China’s outbreak83,150 deaths China’s official count on Feb. 9 0 2.5M 83,150 deaths China’s official count on Feb. 9 0 2.5 millionChina has a narrow definition of what counts as a Covid-19 death. But the work was unwavering in its ultimate conclusion: Ending the “zero Covid” policy was likely to overwhelm the health care system, producing an estimated 1.6 million deaths.

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