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Yet, with services price growth also slowing last month, policymakers will feel that wage pressures have yet to build up enough to warrant an imminent tweak to the ultra-loose monetary stance. We'll likely see inflation slow in coming months, which would allow the BOJ to keep policy steady for the time being," said Toru Suehiro, chief economist at Daiwa Securities. "While services prices may rise next year, those for goods will stay weak. "If more firms hike wages and pass on the cost, services prices could overshoot," said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute. "Inflation excluding food and energy will likely moderate ahead, but the pace of slowdown could be gradual."

Persons: We'll, Toru Suehiro, Kazuo Ueda, Yoshiki Shinke, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Daiwa Securities, Reuters Graphics Services, Dai, Research, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan

However, there is uncertainty about how long households can weather price hikes and generate inflation driven more by demand, which holds the key to whether BOJ's 2% target can be achieved in a sustainable manner, analysts say. The Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes fuel costs, rose 3.2% in June from a year earlier, accelerating from a 3.1% gain in May. While companies offered wage hikes unseen in three decades this year, inflation-adjusted real pay continues to fall in a sign of pain consumers are feeling from the wave of price hikes. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has repeatedly said the BOJ will maintain ultra-loose policy until stronger wage growth keeps inflation sustainably around its 2% target. "The BOJ may revise up its inflation forecast but probably keep policy steady in July," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute.

Persons: Yoshiki Shinke, Teikoku Databank, Kazuo Ueda, Ryozo Himino, Takeshi Minami, Takahiko Wada, Leika, Satoshi Sugiyama, Kantaro, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Dai, Research, Reuters, BOJ, Norinchukin Research, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, TOKYO

It will be a tug-of-war between robust domestic demand and sluggish exports," he said. The growth followed a 0.1% fall in the final quarter of last year, which was revised down from a 0.1% rise. Japan economy expands more than expectedPrivate consumption, which makes up more than half the economy, grew 0.6% in January-March from the previous quarter, as the country's re-opening from the pandemic boosted service spending. The strength in domestic demand offset weakness in exports, which slumped 4.2% in January-March, marking the first decline in six quarters. External demand, or net exports, shaved 0.3% percentage point off gross domestic product (GDP), highlighting the strain on manufacturers from slowing overseas growth.

If inflation stays around 2% and Japan sees significant wage hikes, the BOJ could normalise monetary policy. "Supply shock is behind the recent pick-up in inflation," said Yasunari Ueno, chief market economist at Mizuho Securities. Dai-ichi Life's Shinke expects core consumer inflation to accelerate further in January, before slowing due to the effect of government subsidies aimed at curbing utility bills. The base effect of last year's sharp rise in consumer prices will also slow the pace of increase in inflation later this year, analysts say. BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, whose term will end in April, has stressed the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose until wages rise more, changing the recent cost-push inflation into inflation driven by robust domestic demand.

The increase in the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile fresh food but includes oil costs, matched a median market forecast and followed a 3.7% annual gain seen in November. The annual rise in core CPI thus exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for a ninth straight month. We might see inflation stay above the BOJ's 2% target well into autumn this year," he said. Core-core CPI, which strips away both fresh food and energy costs, was 3.0% higher in December than a year earlier, accelerating from a 2.8% gain seen in November. The BOJ kept monetary policy ultra-loose on Wednesday but raised its inflation forecasts in fresh quarterly projections, as companies continued to pass on higher raw material costs to households.

☆ BOJ to keep ultra-low rates, hold fire until global outlook clearer
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Markets are rife with speculation that the BOJ will adjust its policy when Kuroda's second, five-year term ends in April. CONTENT WITH STATUS QUOAmid uncertainty over the global outlook and pace of Japanese wage rises, the BOJ is content with maintaining the status quo for now, the sources said. The BOJ expects the inflation rate to slow below its target next year because cost pressure will dissipate. Any chance of a BOJ policy adjustment will disappear if the Fed fails to tame inflation without pushing the U.S. economy into deep recession, analysts say. "But the BOJ will probably find it hard to phase out stimulus if the global economy is in bad shape," he said.

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