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☆ Russian central bank to resume domestic FX market interventions from January
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The central bank in August stopped buying foreign currency until the end of the year to avoid aggravating pressure on the rouble, which tumbled past 100 to the dollar in August and September. "From January 2024, the Bank of Russia is resuming operations on the domestic foreign currency market connected to replenishing and using National Wealth Fund (NWF) funds, including taking into account all operations carried out with NWF funds in 2023," the central bank said in a statement. "Therefore, from the start of 2024, the central bank will not buy foreign currency (what it did not buy in August-December), but will increase its sales," Suvorov said. The rouble did not react on Monday, continuing to hover near the more than five-month high it hit last week. The central bank conducts those operations on behalf of the finance ministry, which resumed its interventions in January after a hiatus of several months, shunning what it terms "unfriendly" Western currencies in favour of China's yuan.

Persons: Yevgeny Suvorov, Suvorov, Elena Fabrichnaya, Alexander Marrow, Mark Trevelyan Organizations: Bank of Russia, Wealth Fund, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Russian

By 1417 GMT, the rouble was 0.4% stronger against the dollar at 93.57 , earlier reaching 92.5100, its strongest point since Sept. 12. "We expect that by the end of the year the rouble exchange rate will be trading in the range of 94-98 per dollar, 99-104 per euro and 12.8-13.4 per yuan," Vasilyev said. CURRENCY CONTROLSMonth-end tax payments, due on Oct. 30, which usually see exporters convert foreign exchange (FX) revenue to pay domestic liabilities, have supported the rouble in recent days. The rouble has strengthened from beyond 100 to the dollar since the decree was announced. "The specific impact of currency restrictions on the dynamics of the exchange rate will be insignificant in our opinion," she said.

Persons: Mikhail Vasilyev, Vasilyev, Yevgeny Suvorov, Suvorov, Vladimir Putin's, Elvira Nabiullina, Brent, Alexander Marrow, Mark Potter, Christopher Cushing, Deborah Kyvrikosaios, Gareth Jones Organizations: Bank, Bank of Russia, FX, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine MOSCOW, Moscow, London

But Russia's Accounts Chamber, which oversees budget execution, warned on Monday there were risks the Urals price would fall below $60 in 2024-2026. Russia's forecast sees economic growth of 2.3% in 2024, well above estimates of 1.1% from the International Monetary Fund and 0.5%-1.5% from the Bank of Russia. CHANGING TUNEAt Russia's flagship economic forum in St Petersburg in June, Siluanov said increasing expenditure was difficult, as budget spending had already increased by 1-1/2 times from 2019 to 2022. Now, even as the government outlines plans for spending to jump to 36.7 trillion roubles in 2024, he is more relaxed. Renaissance Capital's Donets and Melaschenko said Russia could create temporary taxes, permanently increase rates of VAT, or adjust Russia's budget rule to permit more spending of energy revenues.

Persons: Evgenia, Anton Tabakh, Vladimir Putin, Anton Siluanov, Denis Popov, Yevgeny Suvorov, Suvorov, Sofya Donets, Andrei Melaschenko, Dmitry Polevoy, Siluanov, Melaschenko, Alexei Sazanov, Sazanov, Konstantin Sonin, It's, Sumanta Sen, Mark Trevelyan, Alexander Marrow, Catherine Evans Organizations: U.S ., Russian, REUTERS, Washington, Finance, International Monetary Fund, Bank of Russia, Capital, Reuters Graphics Russia, University of Chicago, Thomson Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine, West, St Petersburg

☆ Exclusive: Russia doubles 2023 defence spending plan as war costs soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

They show that in the first half of 2023 alone, Russia spent 12%, or 600 billion roubles, more on defence than the 4.98 trillion roubles ($54 billion) it had originally targeted for 2023. Defence spending in the first six months of 2023 amounted to 5.59 trillion roubles, 37.3% of a total 14.97 trillion roubles spent in the period, the document showed. Between 2011 and 2022, Russia spent a minimum of 13.9% and a maximum 23% of its budget on defence. Russia has already spent 57.4% of its new annual defence budget, the document showed. Funding for schools, hospitals and roads was already being squeezed this year in favour of defence and security, but as the share of defence spending grows, other areas could face cuts.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Ilya Pitalyov, Denis Manturov, Dmitry Polevoy, Yevgeny Suvorov, Suvorov, Mike Collett, White, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: Sputnik, Reuters, Defence, MMI Telegram, Bank of Russia, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Russian, Saint Petersburg, Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Locko

☆ Analysis: Russian oil revenues could weather EU ban, G7 price cap
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Olesya Astakhova | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Looking ahead to 2023, one of the main variables will be the ceiling G7 countries and the EU agree on importing Russian oil. Some of the biggest importers of Russian oil, including China and India, are not part of the initiative. The more Russian oil that is lost to world markets, the greater the likely impact on prices. "If the price cap is around $60 per barrel, Russia will continue to export its oil comfortably." Beyond the price cap and European import ban, Russia's oil sector may also be affected by COVID-19 restrictions in China, an increasingly important buyer of its crude.

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